With the world order going through a massive reset, President Putin’s visit to India for the annual Indo-Russian summit grabbed more attention. With Sino-Russian éntente and burgeoning Indo-US ties becoming the defining paradigms of a new world order, speculated wrinkles in the Indo-Russian ties assumed great strategic consequence.
The 20-
year long uninterrupted tradition of Indo-Russia annual summit suffered a break
last year due to Covid-19. Putin’s short working visit to India, his second
overseas trip since the pandemic, is thus doubly significant; his first
overseas visit being a meeting with the President Biden at Geneva in June of
this year.
India and
Russia entered into a Strategic Partnership in 2000 and unveiled the tradition
of conducting annual summit. In 2010 the relationship was elevated into a special
and privileged strategic partnership. The following year both the countries
established India Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IRIGC) to foster trade,
scientific, economic, technological and cultural cooperation. This year marks
the golden jubilee of the Indo-Russian Friendship Treaty. Buttressing this
partnership, both countries have inaugurated 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue that
began in Delhi on Dec 6th.
Strengthening
the defence cooperation, the cornerstone of Indo-Russian relations, the ministerial
dialogue renewed the technical and military cooperation for 10 years i.e., till
2031 and agreed to produce six lakh AK-203 assault rifles through Indo-Russian
Rifles Private Limited (IRPL), Amethi1. Building on this
strategic cooperation, the 21st Indo-Russian summit themed on Partnership
for Peace, Progress and Prosperity headed by Prime Minister Modi and
President Putin expressed satisfaction over timely assistance during the covid
and specifically with respect “Sputnik-V cooperation”.
As against
the speculations of an interruption in the annual summit in 2020 causing a strain
in the ties, Modi and Putin held six telephonic conversations since the last
summit. Putin virtually participated in the open-debate on Enhancing
Maritime Security- A case for International Cooperation led by India
as the President of UNSC.
Strategic
reasons aside, the purchase of $5.4 billion S-400 air defence missile systems
from Russia and the consequent threat of Washington’s CAATSA (Countering
American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) made it imperative for both
countries to redefine and re-energise the ties. Notwithstanding America’s CAATSA
threat, India resolutely pursued S-400 acquisition to defend its borders from
China’s salami slicing.
Days ahead
of Putin’s visit an American delegation reminded India of plausible CAATSA
sanctions. America attempted to dissuade India from purchasing S-400, laying a
bait of offering an advance missile defence system and citing problems in
interoperability. But India remained steadfast. Though the US is miffed, a
strong India is the best interest of America. In response to increased
confrontations with China, America intensified ties with India to counter a
rising China. America will be shooting itself in foot if it sanctions India.
Despite itself, Washington is debating its future course of action.
Against
these odds, at the annual summit, besides reviewing all the fields of cooperation,
leaders underscored the need for putting the bilateral trade on a positive
trajectory. Though both sides believed that trade doesn’t reflect the potential
of the partnership, they decided to initiate negotiations on India-Eurasian
Economic Union and resolved to intensify efforts to achieve a bilateral trade
target of $30 billion by 2025. The volume of India-Russia bilateral trade is
paltry $10 billion as opposed to India’s $100 billion trade with the US and
China. One of the main pillars of Indo-US relations is trade and services. It
is thus imperative that both India and Russia intensify efforts in advancing
bilateral trade.
Accordingly,
countries have agreed to streamline and fast-track clearances, eliminate trade
barriers, finalise negotiations on bilateral investment treaty, promote mutual
settlement of payments in national currencies, strengthen trade in pharma and
expand cooperation in energy cooperation. India invited Russia to participate
in 13 key sectors of Production Linked Incentive (PLI) under Atmanirbhar
Bharat and Make in India initiative2.
Defence
cooperation has been and continue to be the main stay of India-Russia bilateral
ties. Close to 60% of India defence inventory traces its origins to Russia.
Besides, India and Russia enjoy a special defence cooperation pivoted on
collaboration, co-development and co-production. Supplemented with technology
transfer, India and Russia are unlikely to replicate such iconic cooperation
with other countries. But the share of India purchases shrank from 70 to 49
percent between 2011 and 2015 and between 2016 and 20203. As
India seeks to indigenize and diversify defence acquisitions, both the countries
recognized the need to ramp up cooperation in other areas as well to cement the
ties.
Consequently,
in an attempt to renew and reinvigorate bilateral ties, both the countries have
signed a whopping 28 agreements in all with a focus on providing much needed
impetus to economic cooperation4. Additionally, countries
mulled on exploring the need for agreement on reciprocal logistic support for
armed forces.
Unlike with
other countries, India and former Soviet Union both with allegiance to
socialism, traditionally favoured government to government agreements. This
limited the scope of cooperation to realm of government entities even as
private sector began to slowly dominate especially in India. For a more wide-ranging collaboration now, in a
departure from the past countries have now recognized need for collaboration
between governments and private sector organisations with new areas avenues for
joint development now being added to the list. These included-digital
technologies, information protection, security of crucial infrastructure and
law enforcement.
Expressing
satisfaction over the rapid stride of cooperation achieved through BRICS, SCO,
RIC, G20, they underscored the need for introduction of new reforms in UNSC and
in particular pushed for implementation of resolutions to counter terrorism and
extremism.
West’s
economic sanction post Crimean annexation in 2014, has propelled Russia to cozy
up to Beijing. Anti-west sentiments cemented Sino-Russian relations to the
extent of the ties turning into an axis. Further, the bitter confrontations
between US and China and China’s unremitting encirclement of India and
incursions across the border has strengthened the strategic ties between India
and US. As a result, India and Russia are now finding themselves in opposite
tents.
Amid the
stratification of alignments, Russia rejoiced the withdrawal of American troops
from Afghanistan and initially supported the Taliban along with China and
Pakistan. While countries evacuated diplomats and shut down their embassies,
Pakistan, China and Russia operated theirs. Much to the detriment of Russia’s position
on Taliban takeover, the devastating effects of the burgeoning extremism,
terrorist attacks began to erode the peace and stability of the Central Asian Region.
The Stans which share large unpoliced border started feeling the tremors of an
unstable and financially bankrupt Afghanistan. Rise of radicalism, targeted
attacks on minorities and other ethnic groups, mass exodus of refugees and surge
in drug trafficking began to destabilise the region.
Russia
which found itself on same page with India has encouraged New Delhi to organize
a dialogue with regional countries. Pakistan and China declined the invite. In
their absence other countries, especially Central Asian Republics (CARs) began
to share their thoughts without hesitation. At a time when India and Russia are
trying to explore the areas of congruence, Afghanistan emerged as issue of
mutual interest. Currently, India, Russia and Iran are finding themselves on
the same page.
Prioritizing
the need for a stable, peaceful and secure Afghanistan, both the countries “emphasized
the respect for sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity and
non-interference in its internal affairs” in an apparent dig at Pakistan.
The sides appreciated the finalization of roadmap between India and Russia on
Afghanistan. Reiterating their commitment to combat terrorism, in the joint statement India and Russia included
LeT, a Pakistani terror group sheltering in Afghanistan. China prevented the
mention of LeT in RIC (Russia India China) joint communique.
Both
countries echoed similar opinions about denuclearization of the Korean
peninsula, implementation of JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and
supported a Syrian-led, Syrian-owned political process for Syria. Notably, the
joint statement while reaffirming centrality of ASEAN in the regional security
but avoided the use of the construct Indo-Pacific and instead referred it to as
regions in Indian and Pacific Oceans. This comes as no surprise given Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s vehement disapproval to use of Indo-Pacific as
divisive. Shortly, after the Modi-Putin Summit, he reiterated his position and
slammed America’s Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China.
In pursuit
of advancing the bilateral ties and shielding it against push and pull factors
of the geopolitical developments, India and Russia have endeavoured to
strengthen the strategic cooperation. The impact of this fresh impetus to
strategic cooperation has tremendous implications for international relations.
Amid the raging US and China confrontation, Russia and India which pursue
independent foreign policies can emerge as a stabilizing force or even a
balancing force.
Despite
Russia’s close ties with China, Russia is wary of China’s growing footprint and
influence in its traditional backyard, the Central Asian region. But Russia’s
deepening economic cooperation and its reliance of defence and energy exports
has limited its options to show China its place. To counter Beijing’s hegemonic
rise, Russia is betting on a stable partnership with and a formidable defence
cooperation with New Delhi. A strong India can be an effective bulwark against
the Middle Kingdom. However, in an event of a clash between India and China,
Russia will not openly side with India but would ensure an uninterrupted supply
of defence supplies to New Delhi.
Similarly,
Russia has locked horns with the West, precisely the US, over the Ukraine
issue. Russia is miffed by America’s strategy of pushing European borders
further to the east. Putin and Biden are at loggerheads with each other over
Russia’s deployment of thousands of troops along the Ukrainian borders. In a
virtual meet, Biden is reported to have warned Russia of dire consequences
including blocking access to SWIFT system for money transfers. Despite, India’s
close ties with the US, India will choose to remain silent.
Even as
issues of convergences are beginning to shrink, the time-tested India and
Russia are banking in strategic legacy to rejuvenate ties. India is no longer a
third World country of 1970s. Its rapid economic progress and rising global
stature has in part changed the dynamics of the bilateral ties. It has now more
things in common with the West than Russia, which hasn’t managed to diversify
its economy.
In its
quest for more economic opportunities, an aspiring India is looking west. But
when it comes to defence, Russia is India’s first choice owing to the decades
of collaboration and more recently its involvement in Make in India initiative.
By ignoring US threat of sanctions over procurement of S-400 Triumf Missile
system, India validated its trust to India-Russia defence engagement. Besides,
India has always maintained its strategic autonomy disagreeing on the issues of
divergences with the US.
Clearly,
two facets of India-Russia relations are emerging. Heralding the strategic
cooperation, Putin through his visit has exuded new confidence in building
mutual trust. By reading out China’s script on Indo-Pacific, Moscow is letting New
Delhi know of its discomfort of blossoming Indo-US strategic global
partnership.
Putin’s
visit has successfully demolished the speculations of strategic gaps in the
relationship. At the same time, massive geopolitical realignments have exposed
the rough edges in the longstanding India-Russian relationship. The challenge
is now to address the divergences and uphold mutual trust. The annual summit
has made a first move in that direction.
As great
power contestation continues to threaten the peace and stability of the region,
a stable India-Russia relationship offers a promise of a multipolar Asia.
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