While the Indo-China border escalation and subsequent five-point consensus between the foreign ministers of both countries dominated the World debates, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held summit meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Putting rest to apprehensions about the spate Indo-Japanese Logistics agreement following Abe’s decision to step down due to due ill-health, on September 9th countries have signed the crucial Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA). As of now, India signed Military Logistics Support (MLSA) with the US, Australia, France, South Korea and Singapore. ACSA would facilitate the reciprocal provision of supplies and services during exercises and training, UN peace keeping forces operations, humanitarian and disaster relief missions and evacuations during exigencies.
Coming at the height of the
Indo-China border tensions signing of logistics agreement with Japan is a larger
message to the common adversary in the region, China whose aggressive policies has
threatened regional security and peace. Unlike the previous logistics
agreements, which are tucked away as classified official documents fuelling
suspicion among the strategic analysts, this agreement is placed in public
domain for viewing1. The element of transparency has also
lent it special significance and reinforced mutual trust. Days after signing
ACSA, Chief of Army of both countries held telephonic conversations to advance
defence cooperation to realise their commitment towards Free, Open and Inclusive
Indo-Pacific region (FOIP) 2.
Indo-Japanese Annual Summit,
scheduled to be held at Guwahati last year December was cancelled in the wake
of anti-CAA protests. Outbreak of COVID-19 posed fresh hurdles and delayed the
summit meet. Notwithstanding, Abe’s resignation, Prime Ministers of both
countries held a virtual summit and reviewed the bilateral ties which reached a
crescendo of strategic convergence. The high point of Abe’s leadership has been
nurturing of ties through personal connections with leaders. Clearly, the unusual
personal chemistry between Modi and Abe paved way for an unprecedented high in
Indo-Japanese ties. Abe’s pro-India tilt precedes Modi. In his first address to
Indian Parliament in 2007, Abe envisaged “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity”.
Anticipating rise of China and relative decline of the US, Abe believed in the
idea of filling the void by building a security arrangement for the region with
Asian countries. Batting for “Confluence of Two Seas”, India and Japan
as anchors of Indo-Pacific, Abe laid out the precursor for the Quad 1.0. Though
Abe failed to make much progress following his resignation due to health
reasons after his brief first stint as Prime Minister in 2006-07, Abe rooted
for “Democratic Security Diamond” after his ascension to power in 2012. In
2014, Abe became first Japanese Prime Minister to grace the Republic Day
Celebrations as chief guest. Later in September, on Prime Minister Modi’s first
state visit to Japan, under Tokyo Declaration, countries elevated bilateral
ties to “Special Strategic and Global Partnership” 3.
Aside the bedazzling display of camaraderie
of Modi and Abe praying at the Ganga Ghats in 2015, Abe on his reciprocal visit
to India spearheaded broad-basing of bilateral ties. Leaders announced, “India
and Japan Vision 2025: Special Strategic and Global Partnership Working
Together for Peace and Prosperity of the Indo-Pacific Region and the World”
and welcomed induction of Japan as permanent member in the annual Malabar
Exercises which enhanced the interoperability of forces and strengthened
maritime cooperation4. Owing to growing convergence in
economic, political and strategic interests, promoting investments and
implementation of key infrastructure projects, countries have signed agreement
for construction of High-Speed Rail and institutionalised 2+2 Ministerial
Dialogue 5. Breaking the nuclear rubicon, as a testimony to
deepening trust, India and Japan civil nuclear cooperation agreement in 2017.
Since 1958 the mainstay of
Indo-Japanese relationship has been the Official Development Assistance (ODA).
In 2000, during Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s visit India and Japan established
“Global Partnership”. With the commencement of annual summits in 2006,
countries elevated ties to “Strategic and Global Partnership”. Under the
leadership of Abe, to secure stability and peace of the region, Japan partnered
with India to collectively reinforce the objective of FOIP. Bringing effective
convergence between India’s “Act East” and Japan’s “Partnership in Quality
Infrastructure”, seeking to develop reliable, resilient, viable infrastructure,
and to counter China’s BRI, countries launched Asia-Africa Growth Corridor
(AAGC). While Modi extended an iconic reception to Abe at Ahmedabad with a mega
roadshow stretching for over 25km, in 2017 in a special gesture, Abe hosted
Modi at his ancestral house in Yamaguchi Prefecture the first ever for a
foreign leader the following year.
In 2019, along the sidelines of
G-20 summit at Osaka, India and Japan strengthened measures on bilateral
cooperation in third countries. Currently, India and Japan are partnering
several developmental projects in Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh. North East
region is India’s gateway to South East Asian region, given the precarious security
situation in the region, India for long has detested foreign collaboration
projects in this region. Given Japan’s historic connection with the region
dating back to WWII, Modi and Abe have established, “Act East Forum” for
modernisation of the land-locked North East in 2017. Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA) and India signed an agreement worth $610 million for
the first phase of North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project 6.
Under nationalistically driven leadership of Modi and Abe, both countries
elevated ties, reached consensus on global issues, launched new mechanisms of
bilateral cooperation and strengthened the existing multilateral cooperative
mechanisms like the Quad, the Quad Plus and JAI (Japan America India).
An inward-looking America and its
receding influence in the region together with China’s growing assertive
belligerence in the Indo-Pacific region has not only accelerated the
multilateral cooperation between the like-minded countries of the region,
Beijing’s burgeoning dominance of global supply network led to genesis of
Resilient Supply Chain Initiative (RSCI). To enhance resilience and mitigate
COVID-induced disruptions, cognizant of the need to diversify supplies amid
worsening ties with China, India, Japan and Australia sought to restructure
supply chains. Driven by the strategic objective of reshaping Post-COVID
economy, with a hope to decouple from China, known to wield trade as a
strategic weapon, leaders Modi, Abe and Morrison launched RSCI on September 1st.
Being the longest serving Prime
Minister of Japan, Abe’s role in transforming the political, economic, social
and strategic affairs has been significant. Born in a political family originally
from Yamaguchi Prefecture, his grandfather Nobusuke Kishi served as Prime
Minister of Japan from 1957 to 1960. His father, Shintaro Abe has been Japan’s
foreign minister and Shizo Abe first got elected as Prime Minister in 2006.
After his brief one-year stint, Abe got re-elected in 2012. Besides rendering
stability to Japan which had five Prime Ministers in six years, at the helm of
affairs, Abe successfully brought back the economy battered by earthquake,
tsunami and nuclear disaster to the path of recovery through the three arrows
of “Abenomics”-fiscal consolidation, aggressive monetary policy and
growth strategy. Under his leadership, Japan went through the largest phase of
economic reforms. To mitigate challenges of the aged and shrinking working population,
Abe revised the immigration policy and launched “Womenomics” in 2013 to
increase participation of Women in Work force. Through government policies,
subsidized day care centres, rewarding companies to hire women, Abe addressed
the deeply entrenched gender bias 7.
On strategic front, Abe boldly
advocated revision of the Pacifist Constitution, he revoked ban on the use of
Self-Defense Forces to defend friendly country under attack. He also pledged to
bring back the Japanese citizens kidnapped by North Korea and peacefully
resolve the Kuril Islands dispute with Russia. Though Abe failed to accomplish the
last two objectives, in line with growing strategic threats in the region,
recognising the need for power projection capabilities, he increased military
budget. Unlike the Western Allies, Abe made quick moves, established personal
connections with the transactional Trump and brought back stability to the US-Japan
ties. After Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership renaming the
coalition of 11 countries as Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for
Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Abe held the group together and displayed
his leadership mettle.
Recently, Japan evinced interest to
be part of the exclusive club of the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance. Despite
debates over what Japan has to offer to this club, with all the members of the
Alliance-the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand now being
effectively penetrated by China, some analysts are welcoming Japan’s entry into
this alliance for its niche abilities 8. Under Abe, Japan
shot back into global prominence and effectively ended the prolonged phase of
economic stagnation.
Though Abe had a measured approach
towards China to pander to the likes of pro-China Japanese industrialists,
academicians and the Japan’s Communist party, he openly backed India during the
72-day Doklam Standoff in 2017 and condemned China’s ongoing aggressive
escalation. Given his commitment to Indo-Pacific and special fondness for
India, Abe will forever be reckoned as Special Friend. His formal announcement
to resign due to ulcerative colitis on August 29th has fuelled
trepidation. With firmly grounded policies and consistent nurturing, Abe has
laid strong foundation for a stable and longstanding relationship with India.
Also, unlike in the past when Abe’s sudden departure jolted Indo-Japanese ties,
Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with two-third’s majority remains the
dominant political party.
Today, Abe’s right-hand man,
handpicked by Abe as his Chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga is all set to
take over as party Chief and Prime Minister till September 20219.
71-year Shuga, son of a strawberry
farmer, worked at cardboard factory and as security guard to fund his
education. He entered politics in 1996 and served as communication minister in
Abe’s first cabinet in 2006. Shuga shot into prominence as “Uncle Reiwa”
last year after he unveiled the name of the imperial era as “Reiwa” meaning
“culture is born and nourished as people’s hearts are drawn beautifully
together”. Mild-mannered Shuga won the leadership polls on Monday securing
377 votes while other contenders LDP Policy chief Fumio Kishida and Defence
Minister Shigero Ishibha garnered 89 and 68 votes respectively 10.
His vision for the country remains in line with Abe’s objectives. With a deeply
divided opposition still scrambling to find ground to discuss policies, Suga
has promised to continue his predecessor’s policies. Given Beijing’s refusal to
tone down its unabated aggression, Japan which is looking for a counter balance
will continue to partner with India. With China relentlessly pursuing its
strategic objective of “great rejuvenation”, seeking for a regional
balance, democratic countries will be compelled to form a coalition and hence
change of leadership will unlikely to have any major impact on the
Indo-Japanese strategic partnership.
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