On
January 15th in his annual state address to the Federation Assembly
President Vladimir Putin announced his intention to bring about radical constitutional
reforms. These tactical moves, indicative of major changes in the balance of
power hinted at Putin’s attempts to strengthen his stranglehold over Russia.
Hours after the speech, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his entire cabinet
resigned. Barely into the third year of his fourth term as the President,
drastic constitutional changes have hinted at Putin’s plausible attempts to remain
powerful much beyond 2024. A day after Medvedev’s resignation Putin replaced
him with a former tax service head, Mikhail Mishustin a total stranger to
Russian political circles. His appointment was unanimously approved by state
Duma, the lower house of Russian Parliament dominated by the ruling party
United Russia.
In what
can be termed as redistribution of powers among the various agencies of Russian
government, the proposed changes bestow more powers to the Parliament. Earlier
President would appoint Prime Minister and Duma approves it. New changes
entitle Duma to appoint the Prime Minister and Cabinet. This is accompanied by
increased role for the advisory board called state council. The Presidency
still retains the right to dismiss Prime Minister and the Cabinet and name
defence and security officials. Under the proposed changes, President’s
candidate for Prime Ministerial position will need to get formal confirmation
from Duma (currently a consent would suffice). Similarly, Duma’s confirmation
is must for nomination of Cabinet Ministers.
The
timing and nature of the changes are creating fresh doubts about Putin’s
intentions to be in total control of administration and governance. The changes
though unsurprising as many analysts pointed is a fresh attempt by Putin to stay
in power even after 2024. Denied a third consecutive term as per Constitution,
Putin has hit upon with the new idea of making some changes in the
constitution. A poll survey conducted by government agency in Russia at the end
of last year where 68% favoured changes in the constitution, Putin has
effectively used this strategy to give a shape to his ideas for Russia. Also,
with Parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2021, many consider that
Putin’s announcement makes lot of sense. The most important change has been
making the Parliament a more powerful body and inclusion of little-known
regional State Council under precincts of constitution. State council has been
an advisory body comprising of regional leaders and governors. In 2000 Putin
created State Council whose functions were vaguely defined. Intuitively in his
announcement Putin has enhanced role of governors. While the role of President
has been weakened.
Taking a
cue from these proposed changes, analysts put forth three plausible pathways
Putin might follow. The choicest path might be removal of term limits for
President which is the Belarusian way. At an annual conference in December,
Putin hinted at removing the term ‘consecutive’ from the constitution. Reportedly,
the word, ‘consecutive’ is removed from the proposed amendments released on
January 20th. As of now, the outcome is subject to much
interpretation. Second one being the Kazakhstan’s style where a constitutional
advisory body, Security council would take major decisions. The decisions ruled
by it are mandatory and subject to strict execution by state bodies. President Nursultan
Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan became Chairman of the security council for life after
he ceased to be President and remained at the helm of the affairs. He served as
President for 30 years. With the elevation of a peripheral body, Russian State
Council into a constitutional entity, analysts believe that Putin might follow
Kazakh way. By way of strengthening the powers of Parliament, Putin has even kept
open the option of becoming the Prime Minister as well. But with Parliamentary
elections scheduled to be held in September 2021, Putin may not risk leaving
Presidential turf to become a Prime Minister. But the option of invoking the
Russia-2008 kind of scenario can’t be ruled out completely as of now.
Days
after Putin’s announcement a working group drafted a law on the changes and
placed it before Duma. Duma voted in favour of the draft law after the first
round of reading today. It will be subject to another round of voting in
February and to a tentative public vote in April. In the meanwhile, the
unprecedented hurry in passing these amendments is making lot of buzz in
international circles. The sense of the urgency is now viewed as a sign of
nervousness on Kremlin.
Yesterday,
a new cabinet has been constituted with a key objective of revamping Russian
economy. Deteriorating socio-economic conditions of Russia, has turned public
hostile towards Putin’s government. His approval ratings have slumped. Putin’s
party, United Russia, is slowly losing public support and candidates are
contemplating to contest as independents in Parliamentary elections.
To quell
the public discontent over stagnating economy, Putin has facilitated removal of
Medvedev, the face of the government and replace him with Mishustin, a
technocrat, efficient administrator with no political ambitions to boost
economy. Putin rewarded trusted ally,
Medvedev with the position of Deputy head of national security council.
Security council is headed by Putin.
Ushering
some reforms, Putin is attempting to resurrect his flailing political fortunes.
Finance and Energy ministers as well as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and
Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu both staunch allies of Putin are retained in the
new cabinet. To shape his domestic and foreign policy all other key ministers
are replaced. Opposition leader Navalny termed this move as an attempt to woo
the Russian public deeply disenchanted by longstanding economic woes.
Putin
also announced a slew of reforms, including “pay outs” to families to stem the
declining demography and national projects worth $400 billion with huge
investments in infrastructure, digital economy, education and health. Russia
has accumulated significant reserves putting in place austerity measures and
managed to achieve surplus budgets. Now Putin is planning to use these reserves
to make generous dole outs which includes “maternity payment” on the birth of
first child, additional payment on birth of second and third child. He proposed
tax breaks for bigger families, extended benefits to kids between 3-7 years and
free school meals for the first four years of the school. Restrictions are
tightened on Presidential candidates who have held foreign citizenship or
residency permits. New draft law requires them to have lived in Russia for 25
years. It banned law makers, cabinet ministers from holding secondary
citizenship. New changes limited the supremacy of the international law and
prioritised Russian constitution over international treaties.
Having
steadily risen in ranks, Boris Yelstin picked up Putin, a former KGB agent as
his successor. In March 2000, Putin took charge as President and served for two
consecutive terms abiding by the statutory constitutional rules. In 2008, he
appointed a pliant Medvedev as the President, increased the Presidential tenure
to six years and remained in control of Russian governance. Putin stormed into
power with 60% votes in 2012 Presidential elections. Consolidating his
popularity, registering 76% votes, he retained his Presidency in 2018. Having
exhausted all options to be in control of Russian affairs, the new
constitutional changes are his last bet. He made similar amendments in 2008,
which formed the first set of substantial changes to Constitution of Russia in
1993.
Over the years,
Russia is identified with Putin and his prolonged dominance made him
indispensable. Like President Xi, Putin had been averse to grooming a
successor. Though Russia is Semi-Presidential federation, all the
constitutional institutions are reduced to nominal entities. Duma, Federation
Council, and security council failed to emerge as counter weight to Putin. With
all the powers centred around single individual, Russia has transformed into a
personalised autocracy. The new constitutional changes are tipped to make the
President “Leader for Life”.
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