India sets the tone for recalibration with Sri Lanka’s new regime

Sri Lanka grappling with national security issues and economic crisis has elected Gotabaya Rajapaksa brother of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as the seventh executive President. In the polls held on November 16^th Gotabaya of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) a nationalist party defeated his nearest rival Sajith Premadasa, son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa of National Democratic Front (NDF). Sajith who is the candidate of the United National Party received support from the war-affected Sri Lanka Tamil (SLT) community and Tamil National Alliance. Scoring 52.25% of the votes, Gotabaya emerged as clear winner defeating Sajith by a margin of 13 lakh votes. Gotabaya hailing from the family of Rajapaksas and Sajith who served as Housing Minister in the Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government have deeply entrenched roots in Sri Lanka’s political system.

Despite reports of violent incidents largely surmised as attempts to prevent Muslims from reaching the polling stations, elections were by and large peaceful. Monitored by officials from several countries, the newly constituted Election Commission ensured a record voter turnout of 80%. Among the 35 candidates in fray, the contest revolved around the three candidates- Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (Janata Vimukthi Peramuna, a leftist party). Sri Lanka which has the reputation of having the first Prime Minister and a President had a lone woman in contesting in Presidential polls.

Gotabaya, aged 70, a retired military officer and former defence secretary has been the force behind defeating the LTTE in 2009 ending the 26-year long civil war in the island. Nicknamed as “Terminator”. Gotabaya which joined the Army in 1971 studied defence courses in Pakistan and India. He has vast combat experience and played a pivotal role in raising 1^st Sinhala Gajaba Battalion. He quit Army in 1991, moved to the US to work as systems manager and believed to have obtained American citizenship. He returned to Sri Lanka in 2005 to help his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa in campaigning. After Mahinda became President, Gotabaya took charge as Defence Secretary and crushed the Eelam movement. Unlike Sajith Premadasa who is touted to have a clean image, Gotabaya is a man of controversies. He wears twin hats of being a “war hero” and “war criminal”. Towards the end of Sri Lanka’s war with the LTTE, he doubled up attacks on schools, refugee camps and hospitals. Most of these murders were unreported. Tamils in the island term it as genocide. He is accused of indiscriminate killings, torture and political assassinations and his actions are under scrutiny for blatant human rights violations. In 2015 Sirisena government signed a UNHRC (UN Human Rights Council) resolution agreeing to comply with UN regulations. In press interaction, Gotabaya explicitly indicated that he will not honour the commitment made to UNHRC by the previous government. After Gotabaya announced his candidature for Presidential polls, several political parties alleged that he held dual citizenship. Just last month, Supreme court cleared him of all charges.

Infamous for the war crimes, Rajapaksa have invariably pushed the island nation into Chinese orbit. Facing international isolations for excess use of force and human rights violations, to revive the war-torn nation, Rajapaksas opened flood gates for Chinese investments in the island. Straddling the most important commercial trade routes, China grabbed this opportunity with both the hands China invested heavily in island’s infrastructure and the strategically important Hambantota port. Chinese investments between 2009 and 2014 surged by 60%. Expanding its foot hold in Sri Lanka, China made forays into the strategically important Indian Ocean Region (IOR), India’s back yard. For the first time in 2014, Chinese sub docked at Colombo port demonstrating deepening of Sino-Sri Lankan relations. By 2015, the hidden costs and the mercantilist practices of the Dragon began to take a huge toll on Sri Lankan economy plunging it into an abyss of debt trap. Civil war and government’s excesses deepened fissures in Sri Lankan society under Mahinda. Minorities began to fear the regime Gotabaya.  Besides, anti-Chinese sentiment and heavy handedness of Mahinda Rajapaksa paved for his ouster in Presidential elections.

The dual leadership of President Sirisena and Wickremasinghe who took up the governance in 2015 failed to win the confidence of people with their governance. They hardly made any efforts to revive the economy which is in tail spin. Country reeled under high debt; lack of employment opportunities further aggravated the financial woes. Having failed to repay the debt and renegotiate the deal, the duo officially leased out Hambantota port to China for 99 years. While blaming the Rajapaksas for the mountains of debt, they went ahead with new Chinese projects on Colombo port construction, land reclamation and even borrowed $100 million for the infrastructure projects. Constant tussle for one-upmanship, internal squabbles, petty quarrels further exposed the cracks within the government. Sirisena government’s poor performance furthered the return of Rajapaksas with a bang. They swept the local elections of February 2018.

By November, 2018 the political bickering between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe snow-balled into a constitutional coup exposing the fault lines in the government. Supreme Court intervened to end nearly two-months of political impasse. The constitutional coup which gutted Sirisena’s political fortunes, it marked the revival of Mahinda’s fortune who made attempts to grab the power by extraconstitutional means. As per Sri Lanka having served two serves, while Mahinda is ineligible for Presidentship. He eyed for a Prime Ministerial position. Marred by political instability, Sinhalese favoured the return of Rajapaksas. Further, the inability of Sirisena government to act with alacrity despite continued intelligence inputs about the Easter blasts riled the people. The serial blasts in April claimed over 260 lives which included foreign nationals. The fears of national security returned to the island. The cornerstone of tourism witnessed a huge slump after the Easter attacks. A dip in tourism took a toll on economy, jobs evaporated and it reeled under recession. Government’s ineptness on many fronts fuelled anti-incumbency. This factor worked in favour of Gotabaya. Given the precarious state of national security, Gotabaya with proven credentials to tackle security emerged as a preferred choice for a vast majority.

Sinhalese who constitute 74% of the island population rallied behind Rajapaksa whose support base became much consolidated after the Easter Bomb attacks while Premadasa and Dissanayake competed for the support of the minorities and other sections. Making no secret of his vote bank who catapulted him to the echelons of power, he thanked the Sinhala majority after the elections. In his acceptance speech after official announcement of results he said “I am the President of not only those who voted for me but also those who voted against me and irrespective of which race or religion they belong to. I am deeply committed to serve all the people of Sri Lanka”. His opening remarks indicates that the island is still pregnant with the religious and ethnic rivalries. This task ahead is to bring about a cohesion among various sections.

Allaying fears of minorities, Gotabaya promised to work for all. He reiterated his neutral foreign policy, “We will remain neutral in our foreign relations, and stay out of conflict of World powers”. He offered to provide a corruption-free, technocratic, authoritarian style governance based on meritocracy led by professionals rather than politicians. Essentially indicating his intentions of not frittering away progress made in reviving ties with India. In the last four years, India made forays into islands inking deals with Sri Lanka in collaboration with Japan for port development. Modi’s official visits resonated well with the Sinhala majority and the Tamilian minority in the Northern part of the island. Invoking cultural ties and developing good rapport with the Tamilian minority, India infused new trust and dynamism in Indo-Sri Lankan ties. Modi and Mohammed Solih were among the first leaders who congratulated Gotabaya on his victory. Modi telephoned Gotabaya and “expressed confidence that the fraternal, cultural, historical and civilizational ties between India and Sri Lanka will be further strengthened”. He extended Gotabaya invitation to visit India. Barring Pakistan leaders of all countries in India’s neighbourhood make India their first foreign port-of-call. Gotabaya having accepted Modi’s invitation will visit India.

Immediately after his electoral loss Mahinda Rajapaksa accused India of intervening it is elections in 2015. But soon he made attempts to normalise relations with India. In one of his private visits, Mahinda with his brother Gotabaya have reportedly met Prime Minister Modi and proposed to revive the “troika- approach”. In 2008 India proposed that Sri Lanka should choose three individuals close to the leadership and India would identify three equals and the three individuals on either side would interact to create a rapport, iron out differences, avoid miscommunications and further active dialogue. Incidentally, this approach helped in eliminating terror. Sri Lankan team included Basil Rajapaksa, Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Lalith Weeratunga. These interactions yielded great results and the results were visible. But after May 2009 these interactions became fewer and eventually stopped. This kind of out-of-box kind of initiatives can once again be relaunched to resurrect Indo-Sri Lankan ties.

Unlike Maldives, while Sri Lanka may not embrace “India First Policy” and would continue to maintain strong links with China. As of now, India’s trade exceeds China and New Delhi must make every attempt to rev up ties with Sri Lanka which is geostrategically important for India’s security interests. Gotabaya in his speech hinted at Mahinda’s entry into political fray. It now emerges that Mahinda had already indicated to Modi in his previous meeting that if Gotabaya were elected as President, he would drive the nation from Prime Minister’s seat.

Coincidentally, UNP’s parliamentary group has agreed on a proposal to dissolve the elections provided general elections are held after February 2020. Given the internal political rivalries Wickremasinghe’s UNP who lost his political mileage in the last year political showdown will find it extremely difficult to win the elections scheduled for August 2020. Rajapaksas led SLPP will win the general elections hands down. Firmly positioned in the driver’s seat Rajapaksas will be in absolute control of the island country. With China leaning leftist regime in Nepal and pro-China Rajapaksas in Sri Lanka, India has to carefully charter its path with immediate neighbours. With Rajapaksas at the helm, the US is also keenly watching the island which is pivotal for “Free, open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” doctrine advocated by the Quad.

Gotabaya tasked with economic revival and securing national interests may not risk crossing Indian redlines of undermining its strategic interests which includes Chinese military presence in IOR. Being decisive leaders, Modi and Gotabaya understand the importance of the longstanding ties between both countries which share religious, cultural and civilizational ties. Even now the vast majority of Tamilians in the Northern province will look towards India. These are the only regions which didn’t vote for Gotabaya. Earning their trust and confidence will be essential for smooth functioning of island nation. So, all it not lost. It is time India recalibrates its Neighbourhood First Policy to ensure peace, security, deepening of ties in its sphere of influence.

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