Chennai Connect: High on symbolism but tangible action still eludes

Brimming with riveting optics, second informal summit between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jingping at Mamallapuram opened a new chapter of strategic cultural diplomacy. The spectacular pomp, pageantry and grandeur of India’s vibrant civilisation at display during the summit is a huge boost to distinct Indic identity carefully nurtured by Modi.

Devoid of any formalities and inking deals, expectedly the tangible outcomes aren’t significant from the informal summitry. On the contrary, the informal setting of the summit enables the leaders to build trust, allay fears and suspicions. Viewed largely as a confidence building exercise, in the previous informal summit leaders prudently managed differences and contained escalation of disputes. Given the strategic and tactical differences between India and China, with no pressure of deliverables, informal summits have become effective means of strategic communication.

Trade and terror featured as the two dominant issues of the agenda. China reeling under the burden of ongoing tariff war with the US and holding trade parleys with American officials chose to have only a high-level trade mechanism to address India’s concerns on skewed trade. Accordingly, delegations led by Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Chinese Vice premier Hu Chinhua will hold trade talks. President Xi assured that India concerns on the trade imbalances will be taken care under the 16-country RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) trade deal and balance between trade in goods and trade in services and investment will be maintained. Sources privy to the summit suggested a provision for a separate India-China trade protocol under RCEP even. To facilitate people to people, connect India liberalised e-visa restrictions and reduced visa fee for Chinese nationals. Regarding radicalism and terrorism with its overt support to Pakistan, Chinese proclamations appeared to be nugatory.

India and China, the two major powers of Asia and neighbours in the recent past are in news for their divergences. An uneasy calm has clouded the Indo-Chinese relations since the abrogation of special status for Kashmir. China and Pakistan which have strategic interests in the region intensified their tirades against India. Pakistan overtly issued threats and launched a funded international PR-blitzkrieg while China colluded with Pakistan in taking Kashmir issue to UNSC for the first time after 1972. China-Pakistan collective adventurism received a major setback with the UNSC refusing to issue a statement. Despite the official snub, the illegal occupants of Indian territory made all kinds of noises including issuing jingoistic statements at the UNGA.

In the run up to the informal summit, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chief of Army Qamar Javed Bajwa travelled to Beijing reaffirming strengthening of China-Pakistan all weather friendship. In an apparent reference to Kashmir issue the joint statement called for peaceful resolution of the issue “based on the UN charter, relevant UN security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements”. This messaging was in sharp contrast to Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson’s Geng Shuang’s earlier comments- “we call on India and Pakistan to engage in dialogue and consultation on all issues including Kashmir issue and consolidate mutual trust. This is in line with interest of both countries and common aspiration of the World”. Clearly, Sino-Pak “taller than Himalayas” relationship set the tone for upcoming Indo-Chinese talks with official confirmation of the summit emanating from China during the Sino-Pak official talks.

After the revocation of article 370, Foreign Minister Jaishankar visited Beijing to reiterate that there will be no change in international boundaries or the LAC (Line of Actual Control). But as predicted, China hardened its position and supported Pakistan. Adept at hyphenating India and Pakistan, Wang Yi, the Chinese Special Representative who has to participate in the boundary talks in New Delhi planned to travel to Islamabad the next day for the Pakistan-China-Afghanistan trilateral. Keen on not getting tagged with Pakistan on any aspect, India disapproved Wang Yi’s travel plans. Unlike in the past, when India had the PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) making active incursions at the LAC while hosting President Xi, India is no longer diffident. It is unmistakably signalling its discomfiture. China constantly reminds India of the power asymmetry and refuses to negotiate with India as an equal partner. Keen on engaging with China from the position of strength, India refused to cancel the scheduled “HIM VIJAY” military exercises 100km from the Arunachal Pradesh border despite China’s protestations. As a reality check to China which prides in its ancient civilisation, Modi hosted Xi at Mamallapuram, a designated UNESCO site giving a taste of India’s rich civilizational legacy.

In the aftermath of 73-day long standoff, to ameliorate animosities, leaders of India and China held first informal summit to offer “strategic guidance” for the defence forces to avoid fierce confrontations along the LAC. At Wuhan, leaders decided to be sensitive about each other’s concerns. But ever since China has been brazenly exploiting India’s fault lines. China stonewalled India’s efforts to obtain NSG membership, vetoed resolution proscribing Masood Azhar and scuttled Indian efforts to diplomatically isolate Pakistan. Restricting India’s trade access, caused ballooning of trade deficit. China’s imminent anti-India policies are becoming glaringly obvious to India.

As opposed to Chinese hegemonic strides of laying historic claims to any territory in its immediate neighbourhood. Advocating multilateralism, India set the tone for inclusiveness, upholding of rules of law, freedom of navigation and overflight in the Indo-Pacific. China not only refuses to acknowledge India as an important player in the Indo-Pacific but continues to make forays into the Indian Ocean region. China detests “The Quad” as an instrument of containment which is misplaced since military cooperation is not on cards.  To its utter dismay, countries have elevated meeting to ministerial level.  Much to the annoyance of Beijing India is strengthening strategic ties with the US.

China’s policy of using trade sanctions, tourism as geopolitical instruments to settle scores with nations made India apprehensive of Dragon’s arm-twisting tactics.  Of late, Dragon started cultivating an anti-India quad with countries Pakistan, Malaysia and Turkey which raised the Kashmir issue at UNGA.  The name-sake Wuhan spirit has dissipated long ago. China which calls for multilateral world strives for a Sino-centric Asia and vehemently scuttles India’s rise. Despite Dragon’s conflicting signalling and insincere pledges, India continues to engage with China to prevent the bilateral ties from descending into tensions. India realises that China is its most important neighbour and a formidable foreign policy challenge.

Though analysts reconcile the absence of any discussion on Kashmir issue as a huge compromise. With sizeable chunk of Kashmir under its illegal occupation, China is complicit of Pakistan’s nefarious strategies. On the contrary, Xi spoke about Imran Khan’s visit to China.

India mindful of Chinese sensitivities refrains from exploiting its fault lines. Mamallapuram summit comes at a time when China is staring at economic slowdown, stifling trade tariff war and upsurge of pro-democratic protests. Heading for Nepal from the summit, Xi said, “we must hold the rudder and steer the course of China-India relations, map out a hundred-year plans for relations from a strategic perspective, inject a strong endogenous impetus into bilateral relations, work together to realise the rejuvenation of our two great civilisations”. Xinhua even quotes that President suggested a scenario where “the dragon and the elephant dance together”. Though there exists an undeniable power differential, India is a rising power in Asia. If China continues to ruthlessly undermine India’s strategic interests, rich symbolism without substance inspires no confidence.

While informal summits heralded by fiercely nationalistic leaders have great potential for cementing strategic partnership, empty rhetoric, devoid of objective action will only be cherished for its spectacular optics. The ball is in Xi’s court now to mend fences.

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