Analysis of Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly Elections

The assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana coming months after BJP’s massive mandate in Lok Sabha has been a closely watched affair. Over four months into new tenure, the NDA government through its impactful economic reforms, triple talaq bill and the iconic revocation of Article 370 BJP proved its mettle by fulfilling its poll promises. By earning the richly deserved pole position garnering a huge mandate in the past four decades, BJP has indeed, raised the bar.

At the time of the elections, with results still trickling in, BJP-Sena combined had a smooth sail in the elections, Manohar Lal Khattar government in Haryana is having a roller coaster ride struggling to reach the majority mark. As has been evident, Indian elections analysts had different benchmarks for different parties in calling the electoral victory. While the Congress was always given a free pass and often praised for their moral victories in the elections. A victory with a simple majority for BJP is viewed with scepticism. This has been the narrative of the Indian media which had different bench marks.

Some over enthusiastic poll analysts began to term elections results as referendum on NDA government’s constitutional amendment on Kashmir. Clearly the assembly elections are about the local issues. Indian electorate have always delineated state issues with national issues and time effectively. Time and again they voted for different parties of choice in the simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. So before passing the buck and holding the Modi-Shah responsible for the sub-optimal performance of BJP in the state elections, it is time to analyse why the state leaders failed to win the confidence of the people. Alternatively, it must be borne in mind that incumbency wave would always have an uncanny way of denting the electoral outcome.

In both the states the incumbent BJP regimes were faced with the task of defending their mandate. All the major exit polls analysis baring Axis predicted a huge victory for BJP in two states. In Maharashtra, BJP contested 164 seats and managed to win around 100 seats with a strike rate of 60% as opposed to Shiv Sena’s 46%. Interestingly, Shiv Sena is hailed for its stellar performance; BJP is asked to do soul searching. In view of high level of performance expected for BJP, Maharashtra state unit must do the “chintan” for its electoral losses.

Analysts lamented that too much centralisation of power with BJP central leadership took a toll on state elections. But the contrary is true. Devendra Fadanavis in the last five years has emerged as strong leader and successfully overcome the testing times of protests for Maratha reservations, farmers agitation and the orchestrated Bhima-Koregoan protests. Setting an ambitious target of $1 trillion economy, he chartered the course of economic development for the state.  Against several odds ranging from the shoot outs at Rampal’s Ashram to Jat Agitation, Khattar managed to survive all the odds and ensured a corruption-free rule.  So, by any stretch of imagination, it can’t be construed a strong central leadership has hampered the evolution of strong BJP leaders at the state level. But the huge exodus of leaders from other parties and their eventual assimilation into the BJP has negatively impacted its performance. Besides, the PMC Bank scam and the contradictory positions of BJP and Shiv Sena in Aarey Metro shed issue had split the voters. These developments towards the fag end of elections had some role in electoral mandate.

The election results in Haryana must be a shock and cause of huge concern. Back in December 2018, BJP swept the mayoral elections winning all the five corporations with huge margins. Indeed, if the polls are a reflection of poor performance of Khattar he should have been decimated in the local elections. While it might be too early to call it, but caste appears to have played a crucial role in vote consolidation in the state. Being a non-Jat, Khattar’s choice as a chief ministerial candidate back in 2014 in the Jat-dominated state raised several eyebrows. But now, the phenomenal rise of JJP (Jananayak Janata Party), a Jat dominated party which managed to win 11 seats catapulting itself into the enviable “kingmaker” position once again reiterates the overwhelming influence of caste dynamics in the state elections. But that doesn’t necessary answer the dismal losses of 7 ministers in state elections. Hence, the leaders must reflect on these losses and learn from these defeats.

Another important trend that needs a mention is the resurgence of Haryana Congress local leadership. For long the dynasty has side-lined strong local leaders and undermined their role. The complete absence of the dynasty and the reluctant politician has undoubtedly paved way for better performance of Congress as against the popular perception of infighting within the party undercutting its vote share.

It is also argued that GST, slowing economy, unemployment might have exacerbated the troubles for BJP. Certainly, the results are a wakeup call to the BJP local leaders. Resting in the laurels earned by the central leadership, they have become complacent. Assembly elections is a referendum on the local leadership. BJP is up a huge task in Haryana. In what can be a recapitulation of Karnataka elections, JJP leader Dushyant Chautala will extract his pound of flesh to join ranks with Khattar led BJP in the state. BJP must act swiftly since Congress is openly urging governor to call JJP for government formation. Campaigning by Modi-Shah can accentuate electoral gains when they are supplemented by deliverance by local leaders.

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A retreating America cedes ground to Russia in the Middle East

President Trump’s decision to withdraw American troops from global theatre has been his major electoral plank. After his plans for staged pulling of troops from Afghanistan suffered a setback, gearing up for a re-election in 2020, Trump has turned his attention to American troops stationed in Syria. Since December 2018, Trump has been making claims of American troops victory over IS (Islamic State) in Syria at various platforms. Irked by these premature proclamations even Defence Secretary James Mattis, resigned. Trump persisted with IS elimination claims even when American troops on ground were reluctant to endorse the same. Finally, on March 20^th, he displayed a map showing the areas held by IS and pledged that these areas will be IS-free soon.

Strategic experts dismissed Trump’s boastful claims of crushing IS since the operational area of IS alone has drastically reduced. But IS cadres weren’t eliminated. Moreover, the parties which took on IS hardly bothered to evolve a plan to contain the spread and influence of the vicious ideology and thousands of indoctrinated fighters. Choked by the combined onslaught of various forces, left with no territory, IS fighters simply scattered and laid low. They were waiting for an opportunity to regroup. Trump’s premature decision of pulling US troops and dumping its alliance partners Syrian Kurdish forces, who were instrumental in defeating the IS caliphate and holding IS fighters under captivity is now paving way for IS resurgence. Kurds has been guarding the make-shift confinement centres that lodged over 10,000 fighters. With Kurds forced to defend their territory and no vigil in place, dozens of IS cadres are believed to have escaped the confinements.

In all, Trump’s volte-face of betraying the Kurds, dented flailing American global credibility, IS resurgence and facilitated Russian entry into West Asia. While Trump administration continues to defend its decision and absolves itself of the flagrant Turkish invasion in Syria’s North East, Russia has stepped up its game after the US departure.

Russian troops started patrolling the line between the Turkish and Syrian Armies. Left to fend for itself, Syrian Democratic Forces (YPG) who under attack from the Turkish forces sought the help of Syria. Russia and Iran which supported Assad’s regime dispatched forces to the border area. Since White House’s order of Oct 6^th, Turkey made rapid ground into the areas held by Kurdish forces, attacked five cities. Promising to turn the Syrian-Turkish border area into a “safe zone” where Syrian refugees can be relocated, Turkey bolstered its attack reportedly after getting tipoff from America about the movement of Kurds their former ally. America is reportedly sharing surveillance video under the counter terrorism partnership signed with Turkey in 2016.

Congress rebuked Trump’s irrational move. Under intense pressure Trump announced sanctions on Turkish steel imports and individuals in defence ministry responsible for destabilising the region and threatened to stop negotiations on bilateral trade worth $100 billion. He dispatched Vice-President Pence and Secretary for State Mike Pompeo, NSA Robert O’Brien and offered to mediate.

Trump even shot a letter to Erdogan warning him from slaughtering people. His rather undiplomatic” language soon became viral, devoid of any civility, a visibly annoyed Turkish President reportedly binned it. Clearly, Trump who ordered pulling of American troops after a phone conversation with Erdogan has lost his plot. Tying itself into knots, after hasty withdrawal, America began striking its own bases which served as bunkers and depots for storage of ammunition to render them useless for the new forces entering the region. As a part of US-brokered deal Turkey has agreed to stop the offensive for 120 hours provided the Kurdish forces withdrew from border areas. Turkey reported 20 cases of alleged violations. American troops which allied with SDF have now moved to their base in West Iraq. As opposed to complete withdrawal of US decided to station 200 personnel in Syria to protect the oil reserves from IS. Meanwhile Turkey asserted the five days will witness a temporary pause in Operation Peace Spring launched on Oct 9^th and vowed to “crush” the Kurdish forces.

Turkey’s cold snub to America and outright rejection of ceasefire despite the sanction sword hanging as opposed to acceptance of President Putin’s invitation to visit Russia for discussing Syrian situation exemplified Moscow’s growing influence in the region. Both leaders are now scheduled to meet on October 22^nd at Sochi. With this move Russia has consolidated its position as a mediator between Turkey and Kurdish forces.

Trump’s sudden U-turn comes days ahead of Putin’s visit to Saudi Arabia and UAE. For long, the US is known to be key ally of Arab region. After America’s nefarious intervention in Egypt under Obama regime, its reputation took a hit in the region. Trump’s intransigent position towards Iran and his efforts to isolate Tehran have drawn these countries close to the US. But the ties with Saudi suffered a set back after the US hesitated to overtly support Riyadh in the aftermath of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. The reticence to retaliate despite tanker attacks and even after shooting US drone deepened Arabs scepticism towards Washington. Trump’s willingness to hold talks with Iran to solve nuclear impasse irked the Arabs further. Trump’s incoherent Iranian policy of “blow hot blow cold” has irrevocably dented the relations. Around the same time, Russia stepped up its trade, defence and economic engagements with the region. It began to make fresh forays into the Arab world.

In 2017 Russia and Saudi Arabia during King Salman’s visit to Moscow, clinched a slew of deals including an agreement on lowering oil production. They bumped up global oil prices to reap financial gains. In the process, Russia not only navigated safely through American sanctions but became closer to Gulf nations. Obama’s trenchant approach gave a reason for Russia to enter Syria in 2015 and bolster Assad’s regime. Iran also backed the regime. Eventually with Iranian and Russian forces effectively combatting the IS, Assad strengthened his army. With America pulling its forces, the hapless Kurds sought the support of Assad and eventually softened claims to the North East region which was inaccessible for Syrian forces. Till recently, North Syria was out of bounds for Assad. With Iran and Russia deploying forces in the border region, Russia now emerged as a major broker. On the contrary, American abandonment made it an untrustworthy ally.

In 2015, Russia and Turkey sparred after Turkey shot down Russian jet over violation of airspace and this enmity exacerbated with the assassination of Russian diplomat in Turkey. Hostilities plagued the bilateral ties for over a year. Soon, Turkey a major NATO ally softened its stance towards Russia after America refused to part with allies YPG, which Turkey believes is a terrorist organisation. Despite their differences over Syria, having strained relations with the US, Turkey expanded ties with Russia and sealed an agreement to buy S-400 Air defence missile system. In August, countries ratcheted up nuclear cooperation giving wings to Turkey’s nuclear aspirations. Russia with smart diplomacy not only became an influential player in the Middle East but by being amenable to various countries it stitched rather unusual friendships.

Interestingly, though Iranian and Russian forces continue to spar in Syria they are on the same side. Iran and Russia have the largest gas reserves. With sanctions in place, Iran lost its dominance in global markets, Russia with second largest reserves is pumping gas to the fullest and filling coffers. Besides, Iran still refuses to forget the old feuds with Russia when it was forced to cede large areas of Armenia and Azerbaijan. America’s loss is Russia’s gain. While Russia lacks the economic clout, through deft diplomatic manoeuvring, it is realising its dreams of gaining access and influence in the Arab world long considered as an American bastion.

While Arab countries may be averse to join hands with Russia to form an anti-Western front, by standing by his ally Assad Russia has established its credibility. Away from the global forum, Russia even initiated peace talks for Syria at Astana in 2018. By putting boots on ground Russia has indeed risked becoming part of the conflicts. Unlike the short-term and quirky America incoherent approach, Russia through shrewd diplomacy and minimal intervention is making unusually bigger gains.

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With China at the helm, Pakistan escapes FATF “Black List”

Just days after the spectacle of bonhomie between India and China, Financial Action Task Force (FATF) chaired by China decided to keep Pakistan in grey list. Official reports indicate, Pakistan has complied with mere five of the 27 tasks in action-list for controlling the terror financing to JeM (Jaish-e-Mohammed) and LeT (Laskhar-e-Toiba). But China has let off “all weather friend” Pakistan with a stern warning. The intergovernmental body FATF established in 1989 during the G7 Summit in France set standards and legal measures to combat money laundering. After the 9/11 attacks in 2001, terror financing has been added to its charter. Through peer reviews from member countries FATF monitors the implementation of its recommendations. In 2012 it included measures to counter financing for controlling weapons of mass destruction

FATF currently has forty recommendations for money laundering and nine Special Recommendations (SR) for terror financing. SR for countering terror financing are advocated by 180 countries. Since 9/11, cracking down on global terrorism has become one of the prime objectives of this organisation. In line with its statutory functioning, under its jurisdiction FATF started identifying the Non-Cooperative Countries/Territories or putative FATF blacklist which essentially function as epicentres of terror. FATF doesn’t have investigative authority but black listing effectively protected the international financing systems from misuse. Ever since FATF has been regularly releasing list of the blacklisted countries. Countries which are deemed as safe havens for terror are initially included in the grey list warning them to tackle terror financing issues. If the country fails to implement satisfactory measures it will be black listed.

As of now Iran and North Korea are in black list and both going through severe financial crisis. Black listing will be a huge blow to Pakistan battling massive economic slowdown. Access to international lending, exports, imports and remittances will be impacted. A debt-ridden Pakistan will find it extremely difficult to extricate itself from vicious debt trap.

Currently FATF has 39 members- 37 member countries and two blocs- EU (European Union) and GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). It has 30 Observer member which includes countries and international organisations like IMF and the UN.  FATF countries have associate members or FATF style regional bodies (FSRB) which carry out similar functions. In August a 41-member plenary of Asia Pacific Group an associate member of FATF placed Pakistan under the “Enhanced Expedited Follow Up List” for complying with only 8 of 40 recommendations. Out of 11 effective parameters it was judged low on 10. APG report indicated that Pakistan shall remain in the grey list at the FATF plenary (decision making body) in Paris starting on Oct 13^th.  Plenary meets which meets thrice a year in February, June and October to decide inclusion of countries in various lists. Decisions are taken through consensual approval of member. Veto by three members can stall any majority decision.

Burgeoning evidence against Pakistan as safe havens forced FATF to place Pakistan under grey lost in June 2018. Islamabad managed to avoid such inclusion in February 2018 with the support of China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. But in June 2018, America prevailed on Saudi Arabia and assuring a bigger role for China at FATF India managed Beijing. As a result, Pakistan was included in grey list. China subsequently became vice-president of FATF. For three years between 2012 and 2015 Pakistan has been in grey list. China’s term of one-year Vice-Presidentship began in July 2018. In June 2019 China became President.

Pakistan’s poor credibility and compliance record mandates FATF to include it in the black list, with Beijing at the helm of affairs, countries were sceptical of Islamabad’s inclusion in the black list. Voicing out his scepticism in UNGA address, Prime Minister Modi urged nations from meddling in the functioning of global regulatory bodies. Rampant political intervention has rendered these bodies ineffective and toothless. China vetoed UN resolution for inclusion of Masood Azhar’s in UNSC 1267 list as internationally designated terrorist for a decade. Similarly, UNHRC currently dominated by countries with immense financial clout and abysmal human rights has become a dodgy institution now. Setting dangerous precedents powerful countries are blatantly undermining credibility of global organisations are giving free pass to rogue nations, facilitating evasion of scrutiny and sanctions.

As a perfunctory measure days before FATF plenary session Pakistan which has custodial possession of LeT leader Hafiz Saeed, arrested four terrorists- Zafar Iqbal, Yahya Aziz, Muhammed Ashraf and Abdul Salam on charges of terror financing like in June. Ahead of FATF’s decision Alice Wells head of US department’s South and Central Asian Bureau welcomed arrest of the four terrorists and called for their prosecution. Well versed with Pakistan’s facile measures the US refused to call the bluff of Islamabad’s perfidy.

Despite renewed affirmations for countering global terror, countries with vested interests in Pakistan have been using terrorism as a geopolitical instrument. While the role of China’s support to rescue Pakistan at international forum is well known, the US keen on obtaining Pakistani support for bringing Afghan Taliban to negotiation table has softened his stance. Together resistance from the anti-India squad comprising of Malaysia, Turkey has ensured Pakistan’s from being downgraded to black list. The decision is once again deferred by four months setting February as the new deadline for completing full action. In the meanwhile, Pakistan will continue to receive aid from IMF, ADB, World Bank and the EU and will avert the risk of being downgraded by credit rating agencies like Moody’s Fitch and S&P.

FAFT’s decision underscores the robustness of China-Pakistan tango that is successfully hoodwinking the regulatory measures of global bodies. In anticipation of Beijing’s rescuing act, Pakistan has reportedly leased 55 sq km of land stretch in the Harami Nala near to Sir Creek Area, 10 km from the International Maritime Boundary. This latest act is instructive of growing Sino-Pakistan nexus to counter India. Emboldened Pakistan will continue to intensify border offensive.

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Chennai Connect: High on symbolism but tangible action still eludes

Brimming with riveting optics, second informal summit between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jingping at Mamallapuram opened a new chapter of strategic cultural diplomacy. The spectacular pomp, pageantry and grandeur of India’s vibrant civilisation at display during the summit is a huge boost to distinct Indic identity carefully nurtured by Modi.

Devoid of any formalities and inking deals, expectedly the tangible outcomes aren’t significant from the informal summitry. On the contrary, the informal setting of the summit enables the leaders to build trust, allay fears and suspicions. Viewed largely as a confidence building exercise, in the previous informal summit leaders prudently managed differences and contained escalation of disputes. Given the strategic and tactical differences between India and China, with no pressure of deliverables, informal summits have become effective means of strategic communication.

Trade and terror featured as the two dominant issues of the agenda. China reeling under the burden of ongoing tariff war with the US and holding trade parleys with American officials chose to have only a high-level trade mechanism to address India’s concerns on skewed trade. Accordingly, delegations led by Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Chinese Vice premier Hu Chinhua will hold trade talks. President Xi assured that India concerns on the trade imbalances will be taken care under the 16-country RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) trade deal and balance between trade in goods and trade in services and investment will be maintained. Sources privy to the summit suggested a provision for a separate India-China trade protocol under RCEP even. To facilitate people to people, connect India liberalised e-visa restrictions and reduced visa fee for Chinese nationals. Regarding radicalism and terrorism with its overt support to Pakistan, Chinese proclamations appeared to be nugatory.

India and China, the two major powers of Asia and neighbours in the recent past are in news for their divergences. An uneasy calm has clouded the Indo-Chinese relations since the abrogation of special status for Kashmir. China and Pakistan which have strategic interests in the region intensified their tirades against India. Pakistan overtly issued threats and launched a funded international PR-blitzkrieg while China colluded with Pakistan in taking Kashmir issue to UNSC for the first time after 1972. China-Pakistan collective adventurism received a major setback with the UNSC refusing to issue a statement. Despite the official snub, the illegal occupants of Indian territory made all kinds of noises including issuing jingoistic statements at the UNGA.

In the run up to the informal summit, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chief of Army Qamar Javed Bajwa travelled to Beijing reaffirming strengthening of China-Pakistan all weather friendship. In an apparent reference to Kashmir issue the joint statement called for peaceful resolution of the issue “based on the UN charter, relevant UN security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements”. This messaging was in sharp contrast to Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson’s Geng Shuang’s earlier comments- “we call on India and Pakistan to engage in dialogue and consultation on all issues including Kashmir issue and consolidate mutual trust. This is in line with interest of both countries and common aspiration of the World”. Clearly, Sino-Pak “taller than Himalayas” relationship set the tone for upcoming Indo-Chinese talks with official confirmation of the summit emanating from China during the Sino-Pak official talks.

After the revocation of article 370, Foreign Minister Jaishankar visited Beijing to reiterate that there will be no change in international boundaries or the LAC (Line of Actual Control). But as predicted, China hardened its position and supported Pakistan. Adept at hyphenating India and Pakistan, Wang Yi, the Chinese Special Representative who has to participate in the boundary talks in New Delhi planned to travel to Islamabad the next day for the Pakistan-China-Afghanistan trilateral. Keen on not getting tagged with Pakistan on any aspect, India disapproved Wang Yi’s travel plans. Unlike in the past, when India had the PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) making active incursions at the LAC while hosting President Xi, India is no longer diffident. It is unmistakably signalling its discomfiture. China constantly reminds India of the power asymmetry and refuses to negotiate with India as an equal partner. Keen on engaging with China from the position of strength, India refused to cancel the scheduled “HIM VIJAY” military exercises 100km from the Arunachal Pradesh border despite China’s protestations. As a reality check to China which prides in its ancient civilisation, Modi hosted Xi at Mamallapuram, a designated UNESCO site giving a taste of India’s rich civilizational legacy.

In the aftermath of 73-day long standoff, to ameliorate animosities, leaders of India and China held first informal summit to offer “strategic guidance” for the defence forces to avoid fierce confrontations along the LAC. At Wuhan, leaders decided to be sensitive about each other’s concerns. But ever since China has been brazenly exploiting India’s fault lines. China stonewalled India’s efforts to obtain NSG membership, vetoed resolution proscribing Masood Azhar and scuttled Indian efforts to diplomatically isolate Pakistan. Restricting India’s trade access, caused ballooning of trade deficit. China’s imminent anti-India policies are becoming glaringly obvious to India.

As opposed to Chinese hegemonic strides of laying historic claims to any territory in its immediate neighbourhood. Advocating multilateralism, India set the tone for inclusiveness, upholding of rules of law, freedom of navigation and overflight in the Indo-Pacific. China not only refuses to acknowledge India as an important player in the Indo-Pacific but continues to make forays into the Indian Ocean region. China detests “The Quad” as an instrument of containment which is misplaced since military cooperation is not on cards.  To its utter dismay, countries have elevated meeting to ministerial level.  Much to the annoyance of Beijing India is strengthening strategic ties with the US.

China’s policy of using trade sanctions, tourism as geopolitical instruments to settle scores with nations made India apprehensive of Dragon’s arm-twisting tactics.  Of late, Dragon started cultivating an anti-India quad with countries Pakistan, Malaysia and Turkey which raised the Kashmir issue at UNGA.  The name-sake Wuhan spirit has dissipated long ago. China which calls for multilateral world strives for a Sino-centric Asia and vehemently scuttles India’s rise. Despite Dragon’s conflicting signalling and insincere pledges, India continues to engage with China to prevent the bilateral ties from descending into tensions. India realises that China is its most important neighbour and a formidable foreign policy challenge.

Though analysts reconcile the absence of any discussion on Kashmir issue as a huge compromise. With sizeable chunk of Kashmir under its illegal occupation, China is complicit of Pakistan’s nefarious strategies. On the contrary, Xi spoke about Imran Khan’s visit to China.

India mindful of Chinese sensitivities refrains from exploiting its fault lines. Mamallapuram summit comes at a time when China is staring at economic slowdown, stifling trade tariff war and upsurge of pro-democratic protests. Heading for Nepal from the summit, Xi said, “we must hold the rudder and steer the course of China-India relations, map out a hundred-year plans for relations from a strategic perspective, inject a strong endogenous impetus into bilateral relations, work together to realise the rejuvenation of our two great civilisations”. Xinhua even quotes that President suggested a scenario where “the dragon and the elephant dance together”. Though there exists an undeniable power differential, India is a rising power in Asia. If China continues to ruthlessly undermine India’s strategic interests, rich symbolism without substance inspires no confidence.

While informal summits heralded by fiercely nationalistic leaders have great potential for cementing strategic partnership, empty rhetoric, devoid of objective action will only be cherished for its spectacular optics. The ball is in Xi’s court now to mend fences.

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India and Bangladesh Firm up ties

On October 5^th Prime Ministers of India and Bangladesh held bilateral dialogue in New Delhi for the first them after their spectacular electoral victories. Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in the South Asian region with bilateral trade amounting to $ 9.3 billion. Aside, Bhutan, India enjoys strong bilateral relations with Bangladesh with whom India shares 4156 km long boundary.

Indo-Bangladesh ties have been on an upswing ever since Sheikh Hasina of Awami League clinched power in 2009. She resurrected the bilateral ties which took a beating during Khaleeda Zia’s regime backed by fundamentalists and pro-Pakistani elements. In 2011 India and Bangladesh came close to signing the Teesta water sharing agreement which was stalled by West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee who opposed it. The relationship received new lease for life after India generously accepted the decision of Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on the delimitation of the India-Bangladesh maritime boundary which was highly skewed in favour of Bangladesh. PCA awarded 80% of disputed area in the Bay of Bengal to Bangladesh in July 2014. India didn’t contest the verdict. Building on this good will, BJP government which came to power with majority successfully resolved the 40-year old long Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) signed by Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. Having peacefully resolved the outstanding land and maritime agreements, leaders of both countries signed a slew of agreements in transport, connectivity and energy sectors deepening multisectoral cooperation. Modi during his first visit to Bangladesh extended $2 billion credit line imparting fresh energy to the old ties. Thus far, India provided $8 billion credit to Bangladesh.

During the last five years, leaders of both countries who met in Delhi, Dhaka and Kolkata initiated various projects including a comprehensive cultural engagement. In March, Modi and Hasina jointly inaugurated projects in transport, health and education in their sixth video conferencing talk. They unveiled e-plaques for supply of buses and trucks, inaugurated 36 community clinics, 11 water treatment plants and extension of National Knowledge Network to Bangladesh from New Delhi and Dhaka respectively.

Despite the renewed engagement, Teesta waters remained a sticking point and a recalcitrant West Bengal chief minister refused to make any concessions. Besides water sharing Bangladesh is seeking India’s help on the unabated infiltration of Rohingya Muslims fleeing Myanmar and worried about the outcome of India’s NRC exercise. India abstained from voting on UN resolution sponsored by Bangladesh and EU against Myanmar for human rights violation. Bangladesh has shared its concerns of Rohingya crisis with both India and China. China which has several vested interests hasn’t even bothered to brook this issue with Myanmar. While India hasn’t been forthcoming on the Rohingya issue, Prime Minister Modi who met Hasina along the sidelines of the UNGA at New York allayed Bangladeshi fears on NRC.

Hasina in her last visit to India, appealed New Delhi to confabulate on the repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh. But India which is seeking close cooperation of Mynamar towards completion of Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Project and carrying strikes against the insurgent groups along the Indo-Myanmar border has been biding time. Like Bangladesh, Myanmar is India’s gateway to South East Asia and extremely pivotal for security of North East region of India. India which is cognizant of Bangladesh’s hardships in sheltering 11 million Rohingyas has launched “Operation Insaniyat” offering humanitarian assistance to Dhaka in 2017. Ever since India has been regularly delivering consignments of relief material like rice, pulses, sugar, cooking oil, salt, tents and sewing machines to displaced women.

Far from finalising the Teesta water sharing deal, leaders of both countries called for expeditious interim water sharing agreements for six rivers-Manu, Muhuri, Khowai, Gumti, Dharla and Dhudhkumar.

Instead of getting roiled by some sticking contentious issues, leaders of both countries began working on issues of mutual interest. Modi congratulated Hasina for graduating out of LDC. Keen on fostering economic cooperation, both sides are working on forging Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), establishment of framework on trade remedial measures for cooperation and capacity building. For the first time Bangladesh exports to India crossed $1 billion mark after India offered duty free and quota free access to its markets. Enthused by 52% increase in exports both countries are working towards finalisation of collaboration in textiles and jute sectors.

Pakistan’s intransigent approach cast a death knell to the regional cooperation under the aegis of SAARC. Notwithstanding this roadblock, countries are now actively pursuing the platform of BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) to intensify sub regional cooperation. Both sides are working towards operationalisation of BBIN (Bangladesh Bhutan India and Nepal) Motor Vehicle agreement to improve regional connectivity. In the past five years, countries have substantially improved connectivity across all terrains-air, water and land. To improve people to people, connect, countries have now increased the frequency of trains, buses and air services.

After the conclusion of the bilateral dialogue, leaders inaugurated three developmental projects- import of LPG from Bangladesh, opening of Vivekananda Bhaban and Bangladesh-India skill development project through video conferencing. Countries have exchanged seven MoUs which includes- use of Mongla and Chattogram ports, use of 1.82 cu sec drinking water from Feni river for Sabroom town in Tripura, implementation of Line of Credit, cultural exchange, youth affairs and coastal surveillance system. With Hasina at the helm of the affairs, there has been a sharp decrease in cross border terror attacks from Bangladesh. Her zero-tolerance approach towards terrorism has been instrumental in heralding bilateral ties. Instead of bickering over some irritants, Hasina who was taken aback by the sudden Onion export ban expressed her disappointment in Hindi at the India Economic Forum in a lighter vein. This new level of comfort and ease in politely expressing inconvenience endured in public is reflective of fledging comradery between both countries.

Though there have been concerns about Bangladesh’s burgeoning defence exports from China and Chittagong becoming a vital part of Dragon’s string of pearls, Bangladesh is extremely crucial for India’s security and Act East policy. It can serve as an effective conduit for improving connectivity to India’s North East region. As of now Bangladesh is deftly managing its relations with both India and China and refrained from cold shouldering India for the Dragon. Bangladesh is among the first countries which termed revocation of article 370 as India’s internal issue. Back home Hasina is facing the ire of adversaries and fundamentalists over the Teesta water sharing deal and Bangladesh’s approval of abrogation of special status for Kashmir. Refuse to cowed by domestic opposition, Hasina on her four-day state visit from Oct 3-6, firmed up developmental cooperation with India. Indo-Bangladesh has stood the test of times. But it is time India delivers on Teesta water agreement.

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India’s diplomatic overdrive isn’t about merely isolating Pakistan any longer

India’s global outreach in the past fortnight created new vibes. Prime Minister Modi on his seven-day visit to the US has launched an unparalleled diplomatic overdrive. Right from the day he landed in Houston, with his unusual bonhomie, pragmatic vision and focussed attention to detail he not only dispelled mendacious campaigns churned out by paid agents but projected India as a country with a global vision.

Kicking off his American visit with a stellar and electrifying Diaspora outreach, Modi shined at various mini summits held along the sidelines of UNGA (United Nations General Assembly) session. Putting India at the centre stage at different forums, Modi posited India’s readiness to be global stake holder. Addressing Universal Health Coverage and Climate Action summit, Modi spoke about the Ayushman Bharat program catering to the health care needs of around 5 lakh families. As a strong advocate of climate change, Modi apprised the International Community of India’s pioneering efforts in increasing India’s renewable energy production, robust energy efficiency policies including special concessions towards popularisation and development of electric vehicles, proposed ban on the single use plastic. At a time when US, has pulled out from the Paris Climate agreement, Modi reaffirmed India’s pledge of committing to the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) declared in 2015. He invited nations to join India’s Modi launched Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) at the Climate Summit and invited nations to join India’s initiative.

In line with India’s policies of strengthening renewable energy, Modi gifted $1 million Solar park to the UN. The 193 solar panels representing member states of the UN, installed on the top of the UN office at New York. Commemorating Gandhiji’s 150^th birth anniversary, India has planted 150 trees in the Centre Park and recounted his message of peace and non-violence.

At the Leaders Dialogue on Strategic Responses to Terrorist and Violent Extremist Narratives hosted by King of Jordan, French President Emmanuel Macron, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Modi called for “upgradation of regional frameworks” for intelligence sharing.  In an indirect reference to China’s decade long blocking of India’s UN resolution on Masood Azhar he urged countries to refrain from politicization of UN listings and FATF. In a departure from the precedent of urging the UN to ensure inclusive growth and combat terrorism Modi evinced India’s interest to play a key role in alleviating global challenges.

True to the fundamental spirit of “sab ka saath, sab ka vikas”, Modi cemented developmental partnership with Pacific Island countries. Attending the India-Pacific Islands Developing States (PSIDS), Modi announced concessional credit of $150 million towards solar, renewable and climate related projects apart from the $12 million grant for high impact development projects ($1 million each) for the 12 Island states. This outreach, an offshoot of the Forum for India Pacific Island Cooperation (FIPIC) is a huge boost to India’s Act East Policy as well. Modi held first summit with 15-member grouping of CARICOM (The Caribbean Community for Common Market) leaders. With principle focus on climate action, Modi pledged $14 million grant for community development and $150 million credit line for solar, renewable energy and climate related projects. Both Pacific Islands and CARICOM have sizeable chunk of India Diaspora. Invoking the traditional connect, Modi pledged to strengthen political, economic and cultural engagement with these Island nations.

Overcoming characteristic reticence, Modi affirmed assistance to the Island nations grappling with energy and environmental challenges and positioned India as a reliable developmental partner.

Modi’s developmental partnership backed with concessionary credit line is in sharp contrast to China’s predatory loans though hefty plunged nations into a debt trap. Neighbours India and China have been jostling for global elevation. China with five times the Indian economy has been successfully wooing smaller nations with its attractive infrastructure loans under the ambit of the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). India’s immediate neighbourhood baring Bhutan joined the colossal global connectivity program of China. Exuding its political and economic clout, China began promoting socialism with Chinese characteristics. Dominating the internationalism with its soft diplomacy and China has been slowly escaping global censure for blatantly violating international order including unspeakable human rights violations. Notably India is facing Chinese encirclement, frequent incursion threats and surreptitious entry into its backyard.

Striving towards bettering India’s economic progress, Modi has chosen the developmental diplomacy as a key aspect of his foreign policy doctrine. Revving up engagement with the international community, Modi has been silently projecting India has a key global player-responsible, reliable and peaceful. Through proactive advocacy and championing of global causes, Modi is steadily increasing India’s relevance in global context. In his first term Modi pushed for international recognition of Yoga and popularised “Vasudaiva kutumbakam” (World is one family), a cornerstone of India’s cultural ethos. Invoking thousands of years old pearls of wisdom, in his address to UNGA, Modi offered an alternative course to the World marred with turbulence and conflict.

India which can’t take on China financially is building institutions for larger good of international community. With France, India established an alternative energy bloc, International Solar Alliance (ISA) now joined by 122 member countries. Learning from its past mistakes, India is endeavouring to strengthen the multilateral organisations it has started and contributing effectively to organisations it is part of with new enthusiasm. During the formative years, India espoused non-alignment, spurred a movement against western colonialism and rejected apartheid. India which has been a natural leader. But sinking economy took sheen off India’s idealism. Prioritising its developmental agenda, India besides fostering economic engagement with the developed countries is lending assistance in capacity building and other developmental projects for third world countries.

Stepping up global outreach, Modi held bilateral talks with leaders of Germany, Italy, Qatar, Columbia, Namibia, Niger, Maldives, Bhutan, Netherlands, Belgium, New Zealand, Estonia, Armenia, Cyprus, Iran and executive director of UNICEF. Besides focussing on improving bilateral issues, Modi used this opportunity to state that Kashmir is an integral part of India and that revocation of article 370 is an internal issue.

Pitching for a multilateralism, Modi sought to hard-sell India. He invited American business honchos to invest in India reflecting on its democratic credentials, demographic dividend and demand. Deservedly earning “the Global Goalkeeper Award” from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for its Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan, Modi emerged as symbol of change and hope.

Picking from where Modi left, External Affairs Minister, Jaishankar Subramanian met 42 foreign ministers, held 36 bilateral meetings, 8 pull asides, 7 multilaterals and lectured at three think-tanks at New York. In a span of seven days, Prime Minister-EAM duo reached out to their global counterparts. To contemplate that this unprecedented scale of engagement is meant for isolating Pakistan diplomatically will be missing the wood for the trees. In fact, Modi’s unparalleled diplomatic agenda bereft of resolve to indulge with Pakistan points to a larger agenda of elevating India’s global stature. His deliberate omission of any reference to Pakistan in his UNGA address suffice the same.

The sheer intensity of India’s global engagement spearheaded by both the Prime Minister and EAM comes at time when Pakistan has propped up anti-India smear campaign through its lobbyists. While India avoided a collision course with Pakistan at the global platform, war mongering jingoistic rants and nuclear threats issued by Pakistani Prime Minister at the UNGA evidently laid bare Islamabad’s abominable agenda. Though India effectively shredded Pakistani lies exercising right to reply, EAM rightfully chose to re-educate the West about India’s aspirations.

After Prime Minister Modi departed to India from New York, Indian czar of diplomacy, single-handedly demolished false propaganda propped up by Pakistan. In a single day, he made appearance on five morning talk shows. In three-days he delivered talks at five think-tanks in Washington-Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Atlantic Council, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, The Brookings Institution and the Heritage Foundation. He also held talks with Secretary for State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary Mark Esper, NSA Robert O’Brien and Acting Home Secretary. In all his engagements, EAM explicitly stated India’s position on Kashmir, countered Pakistan’s mendaciously subverted narrative. Enunciating India’s global aspiration he comprehensively positioned India at a higher pedestal vis-à-vis the epicentre of terror Pakistan.

Presenting shared strategic and economic interests of India, Jaishankar hinted at New Delhi’s preparedness for a larger global role. Open for strategic engagements and developmental partnership, India is now jousting for place at global high table and challenging the rise of Sino-centric Asia as desired by China.

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China @70 is the most powerful autocracy

China celebrated its 70^th anniversary of formation of People’s Republic of China on Oct 1^st with pomp and pageantry. A highly choreographed military parade and the massive display of its arsenal reminiscent of Cold war era, reminded the World of the spectacular rise of China. With consistent double-digit growth over a period of three decades, the Middle Kingdom has catapulted itself from an underdeveloped country to an economic super power. Presently the second largest economy of the World, is tipped to surpass American economy soon.

The post-world war-II era flush with phenomenal growth stories witnessed rise of many nations. But the stupendous rise of China and its impact on the global trade has been awe-inspiring. Aside the spectacular economic growth China’s consistent efforts to transform every other sector-education, sports, science, research artificial intelligence and space technology exemplified its aspirations of a super power in making. The fantastic China’s transformation indeed became a journey worth emulating for many. Economic effulgence eventually ushered hopes of democratisation of the polity. Instead the Middle Kingdom became brazenly indifferent to the western values of democracy, liberty and human rights. Buried under the façade of enviable economic miracle is the thriving repressive ardour of an autocratic regime.

Proliferation of diverse views characteristic of a flourishing society were absent from modern Chinese society. Indeed, Chinese observers even rue the current celebrations and question the paradox of a pre-1949 relatively free Chinese society turning into an imperious authoritarianism. Frank Dikotter in his article, “The People’s Republic of China was born in Chains” argues, “The Communist Party calls 1949 a liberation. But China was far freer beforehand”. After the World war-II the ragtag army of Mao with the help of Joseph Stalin laid seize to Chinese cities and gradually usurped power from local administration. During the course of four-year long chaotic civil war Mao defeated nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek and forced him to retreat to Taiwan. Proclaiming victory, Communist Party hoisted red flag over the Forbidden City. Within years of takeover, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) started re-education centres to implant people with the new ideology, new values and new duties. They mercilessly slaughtered around two million people who opposed this change. Soon enough they banned all organisations, societies and disapproved forums meant for exchange of ideas. They even expropriated private properties. Everything was controlled by the state which was run by CCP.

Community living became order of the day. To circumvent the dire economic distress and transform the economy Mao initiated the Great Leap Forward in 1958 whereby Citizens became bonded slaves of the state. Anyone who opposed the collective industrialisation was executed. The disastrous economic policies of Mao together with the great famine resulted in death of several millions. Notwithstanding this self-inflicted catastrophe, Mao soon launched a decade long Cultural Revolution which besides paralysing China politically and economically claimed lives of 2 million people. After Mao, Deng Xiaoping took over the reigns and introduced economic reforms in 1979. Economic liberalisation kickstarted Chinese growth run. Reaping the fruits of globalisation, China soon reached the pinnacles of economic miracle.

Despite its unparalleled economic run, Chinese administration denied its citizens of the basic freedoms. It continued to propagate its repressive ideology and justified the stranglehold of the state. Divergent ideologies weren’t allowed to proliferate. Insulating its citizens from the democratic movements across the World, it firewalled the internet and censored the media. CCP maintained its firm hold on administration and even controlled the functioning and activities of its cadres through Ministry of Public Security.  With no elections, no organisations, CCP continues to have unparalleled control over the polity. China which has been home to diverse populations were denied their rights to practice their religious practices and perpetuate identities.

CCP often credited for the stability and subsequent economic rise of Middle Kingdom crushed dissent. The despotic state keen on suppressing any alternative thought turned into a colossal surveillance state. Employing modern technology CCP controlling the activities of populations in the autonomous regions like Tibet and Xinjiang.

While China’s unprecedented scientific and technological advancements took the world by a surprise, brutal suppression of civilian liberties of its citizens and confinement of Uighur Muslims in the re-education camps is now catching the attention of the World. China’s burgeoning belligerence, blatant disregard for rules of international order, territorial aggression, punitive trade wars is making international community wary of China’s rise. Till 2012, China adopted Deng’s 24-character strategy, “Observe calmly, secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining low profile and never claim leadership”.

President Xi Jinping who took over as President changed the dictum. In contravention to the illusionary China’s peaceful rise he actively laid claims to the global leadership and aspired recognition. Invoking the Chinese nationalism, Xi pledged “rejuvenation” of China. He co-opted judiciary, launched a massive corruption crackdown exercise against his political rivals and consolidated power. He removed the term limits, became a “core leader” and instituted his thoughts into the constitution. Through opaque trade practices he gave massive fillip to Chinese ambitions of staking global influence and launched ambitious plans under the guise of providing much needed global connectivity through infrastructure. He rolled out Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Maritime Silk Road (MSR), spearheaded the “Pearls of String” stratagem and ruthlessly mooted encirclement policies to establish regional supremacy. Suppressing the dissent with iron hand he bolstered China’s surveillance regime. Under his leadership the expenditure for internal security exceeded defence budget meant to secure Chinese borders.

Slowly but steadily China’s repressive practices, predatory trade policies, intellectual theft, cyber espionage, lack of transparency and contentious state intervention in the foreign Multinational Companies are making the international community sceptical of Chinese intentions and aspirations. Fuelling apprehensions, Xi who watched the military parade of 15,000 Chinese personnel with QR coded uniforms from the historic Tiananmen Square warned, “There is no force that shake the status of this great nation. No force can stop the Chinese people and the Chinese nation forging ahead”. His speech that lasted for barely 10 minutes once again conjured national pride and the Supreme leader Mao Zedong.

Ostentatious display of military weaponry during the parade besides exemplifying stupendous strides made by Chinese indigenous defence industry reflected its military might. Two missile systems: DF-41, ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) capable of delivering 10 nuclear heads to a distance of 15,000km and the middle range, hypersonic ballistic missile DF-17 which can evade perception and capable of traveling at speeds 25 times of sound caught global attention. The display replete with indigenous bombers, submarine launcher JL-2, drones highlighted China’s triad capabilities. Through the bombastic military display China apparently reiterated its claims to super power status. But the three-month long prodemocracy Hongkong protests and high-handed crackdown by administration reflected China’s stark averment from the “One country two systems” policy. Fearing protestors morning flag raising ceremony in Hongkong wasn’t opened for public.

President Xi frequently invokes “Century of humiliation” to stir patriotism and justify China’s claims to various territorial regions including Taiwan. Under the veneer of patriotism China defends its repressive actions to curb alleged secessionist and terrorist tendencies of Tibetans and Uighur Muslims. In sharp contrast, India which suffered two centuries of humiliation by the west as rightly pointed by External Affairs minister Jaishankar Subramanyam at Atlantic Council recalled, “The West in its predatory form came into India in the mid18^th century and continued 190 years after that” never used past humiliations to stir passions. Instead India continues to uphold the democratic values and never laid claims to the pre-independent territories. There are several lessons to be learnt from China but authoritarianism and ruthless repression is not one of them.

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