International Community is wary of angering China and extending support to Hongkong Protests

Days after the 30 years of the Tiananmen Square massacre, another pro-democratic uprising in the Chinese territory harked global headlines. Hongkongers hit the streets opposing the Chinese extradition law set to be legislated. The contentious extradition bill if passed, mandates Hongkong to send people accused of crime for trial to mainland. This would include the accused of crimes abroad, as well as from other countries to China. If implemented, Hongkong besides losing independent judiciary will run the risk of subjecting its individuals to unfair trials or torture. Hongkong is party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and bound by Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel or Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment and customary International Law whereby the island is prevented from sending persons to places where they run the risk of inhuman torture, unfair treatment and prolonged detention without trial.

China’s rule of law which lacks independence is known for arbitrary detention, torture and unfair trials. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has a vice-like grip on the judiciary as well. The compromised judiciary has turned blind eye to the long list of the human rights violations perpetrated by the CCP. Death of the Nobel Laureate Liu Xiaobo in jail after he was denied proper medical treatment for cancer is still afresh in memories of people. Sudden disappearance of Interpol Chief a former CCP politician, Meng Hongwei on his visit to China and his reappearance in the custody of Chinese security agencies exemplifies the arbitrariness of China’s rule of law and abuse of human rights violation.

Last year December, China arrested Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, an entrepreneur who conducts tours to North Korea on charges of spying in response to the arrest of Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou at Vancouver airport for her tentative extradition to the US. For months both these Canadians are held in detention facility, denied access to lawyer and granted just one consular visit a month. Following the extradition agreement with the US, Canada has arrested Meng for violating Iran sanctions. China’s fervent zeal in pressing for changes in Hongkong’s Fugitive Offenders Ordinance and Mutual Legal Assistance in criminal matter ordinance must thus be seen in the light of above developments as well.  Further it must be recalled what while Meng is kept under house arrest and has access to a full-fledged legal team to challenge her petition in the court, Canadians are denied all these legitimate facilities.

Hongkongers wary of the direct assault on their freedom protested proposed changes in the extradition bill. The protests began on June 9^th witnessed an unprecedented participation. As a result, the hearing of the bill and further discussions slated for June 12^th and 13^th were postponed. Cowered by relentless protests, Chief Executive Carrie Lam on Sunday apologised for the turmoil caused by the bill and pledged not to introduce the bill in her tenure but refused to step down. Islanders who are sceptical of Communist party of China, demanded withdrawal of the bill, lifting of charges against arrested protestors by Friday. Else they threatened to block Legislative council. Unlike the 2014 Umbrella Movement, two million people joined the march. The scale and intensity of the protests is now drawing international attention.

Extradition bill is now increasingly viewed as an attempt by mainland China to tighten its control over the island leased to Britain for a period of 99 years. Hongkongers who endured the imperialistic rule of the British were deprived of democratic governance. After Hongkong’s official handover quashing the aspirations for a democratic system China pursued island’s Chief executive kind of system. Similar to Taiwan, China considered Hongkong as its unfinished task of the “Century of humiliation”. So CCP began to actively penetrate every ambit of the governance and establish influence in Hongkong civil society. CCP hand-picked loyal candidates for the post of Chief Executive. It disapproved Hongkong’s demand for Universal Suffrage and instead an electoral college comprising of 1200-member Hongkong’s political elites elected pre-screened candidates for the post of Chief Executive. Of the 70 members in the legislature, 35 members are appointed by special groups with vested interests and the rest are directly elected. This system ensured loyalists of mainland always had an upper hand and final say.

In 1997, after Britain handed over Hongkong to China, President Deng Xiaoping pledged to adopt “One Country two systems”. He assured that Hongkong will remain autonomous for the next 50 years whereby the island had control over judiciary, freedom of press and speech. For initial 15 years after its official handover to China, the island enjoyed the civil liberties and freedom which were denied to Chinese mainlanders. Indeed, while CCP ensured complete erasure of June 4^th Tiananmen event from China’s public discourse, Hongkong commemorated the day and preserved the memory of the pro-democracy struggle of the students. Amidst severe Chinese crackdown on freedom of speech Hongkong shined as an oasis of liberal values. It offered some hope to Chinese who aspired for freedom and much needed social and political transformation.

At the time China gained control of Hongkong, it accounted for 18% of Chinese GDP. Realising the strategic importance of Hongkong as the gate to the western world China refrained from meddling its administration and allowed it to maintain its independent identity. In the first decade of the century, China mainland grew much faster than the island. Soon cities in China Shanghai, Shenzhen emerged as trade and investment hubs outcompeting the economic significance of the island. Even the per capita incomes between island and mainland narrowed. Economic success of the island began to take a hit and the island struggled to cater to growing needs of 7.4 million inhabitants. It no longer served as the growth engine for China.  

In 2003, China pressed for amendments in the Article 23 of National Security Law etched in the Hongkong Basic Constitution. The new changes akin to an anti-sedition law were aimed at curbing territory’s freedom of expression. Conscious of China’s attacks on its freedom, 50,000 people hit the streets and forced China to retract the bill.

Since 2012 President Xi who spearheaded the ambitious “Sinification” agenda attempted to innocuously erode the special status accorded to Hongkong. Denying democratic reforms, Xi pushed for direct election of pre-screened candidates for 2017 chief executive elections. Opposing this proposal, islanders launched 79-day series of sit-in protests called Umbrella Movement or Occupy the Central with love and peace and demanded free and fair elections. But President Xi demurred. On the contrary CCP dismissed legislators directly elected in 2016 and jailed pro-democracy leaders who contested the legislative by-elections. Curbing the pro-democracy calls with iron hand, CCP abducted and arrested people who were critical of its overpowering authority in the island. 2015 witnessed sudden disappearance of a Hongkong billionaire and five booksellers. Unequivocally citing China’s policy towards Hongkong, President Xi on the 20^th anniversary of official handover said, “use (of) Hongkong to carry out infiltration and sabotage activities against mainland is an act that crosses the redline and is absolutely impermissible”. Implementing its nationalistic strategy, China made “patriotic education” compulsory in Hongkong schools and colleges.

Islanders who are distrustful of China’s agenda to usurp their freedom are now more resentful. The present protests are a culmination of growing frustration of the Hongkongers towards China’s absolute intolerance towards democratic reforms. Unlike the civil disobedience movement of 2014, recent protests are marred by violent clashes and calls for independence. Excessive meddling by China in island’s administration, intimidation and arm-twisting of Taiwan has eventually gave birth to independence movement in Hongkong.

China’s faceoff with Hongkong has come at a time when Beijing is facing international ire for sinking a Philippines vessel, illegal detention of over 1.5 million Uighurs and organ harvesting of Falun Gong members. Despite massive human rights abuses and reluctance to abide by rule of law, China never faced the wrath of sanctions. Beijing is making every attempt to insulate mainlanders from the pro-democratic protests that can inspire any protests. Escalating trade tariff war with the US which is taking a toll on Chinese economy is now stoking internal dissent. The international community which is watching the developments carefully has refrained from making any statements prioritising economic interests. President Trump who has raised cudgels against China should raise this issue in the upcoming G-20 summit. In line with his clarion call of “Make America great again” instead of striving for the economic supremacy alone, he can as well project America as paragon of liberal values by supporting the pro-democratic protests whose voices are muzzled by the Middle Kingdom.

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Modi 2.0 snubs Naya Pakistan

Riding high on the efficient delivery of welfare schemes and national security credentials Modi returned back to power with bigger mandate. Imran Khan joined all other world leaders in sending congratulatory message to Modi on his spectacular victory. As if preparing ground for resumption of talks between India and Pakistan, Khan has even called Modi. Known for his pragmatic outreach and keenness in revitalising ties with neighbourhood, analysts believed Modi would roll out the 2014 script. Much to the surprise of Pundits, Modi royally ignored Pakistan. He thrashed hopes of Pakistani lobby who anticipated Modi’s invite to Khan for the swearing in ceremony. Instead, giving a massive fillip to India’s eastward engagement he invited BIMSTEC leaders. Even before a campaign for resuming talks by the usual suspects could gain momentum, Pakistan showed its true colours by harassing guests invited to India Mission’s Iftar party in Islamabad.

Pakistan’s eagerness to engage with India became stronger as delegation level talks of FAFT (Financial Action Task Force) supposed to take stock of its grey-listing neared and with its tottering economy slumping to 157 Pakistani Rupee for an American Dollar. Forex reserves touched a new low. Inflation reached double digits. Indeed, in the first week of June, Pakistan took cursorial decisions of imposing curbs on Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz Saeed and announced a cut in defence budget reinforcing its intent of complying with FATF guidelines.  A reality check reveals that Pakistan simply refrained from increasing defence budget and termed this as voluntary cut. Even its much-touted propaganda of shutting down 11 terror camps seems to be reversible with Pakistani watchers confirming it as temporary move. Coming under intense international pressure of being downgraded to FATF black-list Pakistan is now resorting to some face-wash measures.

After Pulwama attacks, India held talks with delegates of major countries and apprised them of Pakistan’s state-sponsor terrorism. Invoking right to defend, India launched Balakot attacks after Pakistan’s inaction. International community supported India’s retributory strikes with no civilian casualty. Simultaneously, India unleashed a slew of retributory economic, cultural and political measures. With the designation of Masood Azhar as international terrorist, India not only scored a diplomatic victory but managed to successfully isolate Pakistan. Despite the setbacks Pakistan which managed to get $6 billion bail out package from IMF believed that it could even hoodwink and convince India to resume talks with its seemingly perfunctory clamp down measures on terror.

For the past seven decades, after every terror attack, international community always thrusted the burden of resumption of bilateral talks on India. After Khan’s second letter to Modi for talks, White House announced that Pakistan should prepare conducive environment to resolve the bilateral tensions. This marks the demolition of Pakistan’s orchestrated portrayal of India as aggressor.

Post Balakot attacks, Pakistan has closed its airspace posing severe inconveniences to airlines, travellers. Logistics of international travel has increased substantially. But Pakistan has shown no sign of opening up airspace creating a false notion of threat from India in the international community. India eased restrictions on airspace from June 1^st but Pakistan didn’t reciprocate.

With Modi set to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Indian officials requested Pakistan to allow the Prime Minister to fly through Pakistan. Several news reports indicated that Pakistan “in principle” agreed to open air space. But Pakistan’s dilly-dallying tactics evoked suspicions of its intent. Pakistani decision makers eventually perceived this favour as weakness and willingness of India to compromise. Denying Pakistan, the pleasure of having an upper hand by way of bestowing concessions, Modi avoided Pakistani airspace. Instead he took a longer route of flying via Iran, Oman and Central Asia. This not only reinforced India’s firm stance of talks and terror can’t go together but exposed Pakistan’s hostile act of inflicting costs through closure of airspace. Though Pakistani media and lobby groups have been working overtime to portray Khan as messiah of peace, Islamabad’s insincere, half-hearted and dishonest measures unmasked Pakistan’s duplicity.

Despite repeated official clarifications obstinate shutter cocks and Pakistan sympathisers began to inundate the political dispensation with the narrative of need for breaking ice with Islamabad. Given subcontinent’s obsession with Indo-Pakistan official as well as unofficial engagement, SCO Summit, where the Prime Ministers of both India and Pakistan are supposed to meet topped the strategic conversation. People expected “Ufa” kind of moment, where Indian Prime Minister Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 2015 held bilateral talks along the sidelines of SCO summit. Media trumpeted this meeting as a ground breaking event. But Pakistan reciprocated this engagement with Pathankot attack. The realism of Pakistan’s peace overtures was busted. Modi’s peace initiative suffered a huge blow. Indeed, Ufa had been just one of many hyped-up meetings between heads of both government which were artificially blown up for its optics.

Putting an end to the theatrics, the art Pakistan has excelled in, Prime Minister Modi avoided any kind of interaction with his Pakistani counterpart though they crossed each other on seven different occasions during the course of two-day long SCO summit.  Reports say that Khan has congratulated Modi on his electoral victory and both leaders exchanged pleasantries on the concluding day of the summit. While India is under no pressure whatsoever now to engage with Pakistan, Khan who is facing international rebuke for supporting terror, is desperate to initiate talks. At SCO summit, taking an indirect dig at Pakistan, Modi lashed out at nations sponsoring terror and condemned all forms and manifestations of terror. He urged nations to bolster counter terrorism cooperation to make this world a safe place to live. Once again to the discomfort of Pakistan, terror topped the agenda of SCO summit followed by economy and connectivity.

Successive Indian leaderships adopted policy of blow hot, blow cold kind of policy.  Pakistan extracted its pound of flesh due to India’s ambivalence. India never displayed a steely resolve to bring Pakistan’s to its knees. With retaliatory Balakot strikes Modi government has discovered options below nuclear threshold. Post-Pathankot attack, India has not engaged with Pakistan and maintained a hard-line position.  Time “Naya Pakistan” realise that much bolder and audacious Modi 2.0 it not ready to make concessions without commensurate returns.

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Modi prepares ground for a regional counter terrorism cooperation during his visit to Sri Lanka

The Hindu described Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Maldives and Sri Lanka as “Itinerary Symbolism”. I have discussed about Maldivian visit in detail earlier and clearly it wasn’t about symbolism. Nor does Modi’s touchdown in Colombo just a matter of symbolism.

Prime Minister’s short but impactful visit to the Indian Ocean Island of Sri Lanka must be analysed carefully for the clear messaging. Modi demonstrated India’s resolve to empower neighbouring by stressing on the regional prosperity and empowerment of nations. But by becoming first foreign leader to visit the island after the deadly Easter attacks that claimed more than 250 lives, Modi unmistakably carried the message of solidarity. Departing from the official protocol, Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe received Indian Prime Minister at the airport. Before resuming official engagements, Modi travelled to the St. Anthony Church, one of the major targets of the Easter attacks and paid respects to the terror victims and remarked, “I am confident Sri Lanka will rise again. Cowardly acts of terror cannot defeat the spirit of Sri Lanka. India stands in solidarity with people of Sri Lanka”. Modi’s visit endorsed the fact that island nation is safe. This will give immense boost to the tourism industry which is hardly hit by the terror attacks.  With immediate effect, France lifted travel advisory to the island nation. By vowing support to Sri Lanka, India has committed to help the neighbourhood to mitigate its challenges.

Modi’s references to terrorism and fervent appeal to global community for concerted efforts must be viewed in tandem with his attempts to push forward for a global counter terrorism convention. In 1996 India has proposed an international convention on global terrorism and ever since India has been consistently demanding for adoption of Comprehensive Convention of International Terrorism (CCIT). Modi gave a fillip to this proposal by pressing for its early adoption of the convention in his first address to the UN General Assembly in 2014. India which has been facing the threat of terrorism always sought for calibrated international efforts to thwart it. The West initially chose to downplay the scourge of terrorism. But as deadly terror attacks became common place, terrorism has now become core aspect of cooperation between friendly nations and integral part of strategic partnerships.

In his special address to the Majilis (Parliament) in Maldives, Modi strongly condemned state sponsor terrorism and raised alarm about burgeoning radicalisation. Though his persistent efforts in convincing P5 nations about threats of cross border terrorism together with the major diplomatic victory in convincing China to lift technical hold on designation of Masood Azhar as global terrorist Modi has proved his credentials for his intolerance towards terrorism. His frequent and unsparing references to terrorism at major multilateral institutions underscores his conviction and commitment to address terrorism. Given India’s rising global stature and Modi’s success in in establishing International Solar Alliance (ISA), he might be keen on laying foundation for a potential international mechanism for counter terrorism as well. Consolidating regional counter terrorism cooperation may be a step in that direction.

Moreover, after the disintegration of ISIS caliphate, the disparate radicalised groups who returned to their respective countries are trying to influence and radical the local youth. This led to sudden mushrooming of the terror outfits across the South Asia. Among the nine wilayahs (provinces), ISIS has outfits in Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh and the Maldives. Desperately looking for a comeback ISIS initially claimed responsibility for the Easter attacks but investigations reported it as handiwork be National Tawheed Jamath (NTJ), which is found to have Indian connections. Rohan Gunaratne, global terror expert indicated radical extremism preachers from Tamilnadu played a crucial role in the formation of terror outfits in Sri Lanka. The radicalised returnee Gulf migrants have been instrumental in establishment of training camps in Sri Lanka. Perpetrators obtained technology for bombmaking from internet. With ISIS now a reality in South Asia, there is need for great cooperation between countries. Cognizant of these developments, India offered supported to Sri Lanka in further investigations.

Till now India have focussed its attention of building connectivity networks, providing assistance in infrastructure development and capacity building. By inking a deal along with Japan to develop a container terminal in Colombo, New Delhi is not only trying to neutralise China’s influence but became active investment partner. Lying along the busiest maritime routes, Sri Lanka and the Maldives constitute India’s strategic backyard. Any turmoil in its area of influence may not bode well for the strategic interests of India. Hence India is now actively contemplating on strengthening strategic maritime cooperation.

Besides in 21^st century, there is a renewed interest in nations towards bolstering their maritime security. As a result, there is an increased maritime domain awareness among the island nations. Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is emerging as major strategic arena in shifting geopolitical dynamics. Island nations are now more concerned about security. Especially, Maldives and Sri Lanka which are facing the threat of Islamist radicalisation are eagerly seeking assistance. A major aspect of the security includes the terror emanating from the sea routes as well. India unlike China which doesn’t have deep pockets is seeking to swiftly counter the growing influence of Beijing by extending cooperation in terrorism and strategic security.

Aware of the fissures between offices of Prime Minister and President, Modi diligently balanced his interactions with both the leaders. President Sirisena extended ceremonial guard of honour to Prime Minister, later both leaders held wide ranging discussions and agreed “terrorism is a joint threat and needs collective action”. Both of them planted a sapling in the Presidential Palace. Prime Minister who met Sirisena twice in the span of 10 days, “reiterated India’s commitment to partner with Sri Lanka for a shared, secured and prosperous future”. Modi also met former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, governors of all the nine provinces and the delegation of Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Sri Lanka which is going through a domestic churn in the aftermath of Easter attacks is going for Presidential Elections on December 7^th. Firming up ties, Modi assured all support, to future Sri Lankan leadership as well.

Viraj Solanki, research analyst pointed that a realistic futuristic cooperation can be the only way forward to counter the burgeoning threat in South Asia. Like-minded South Asian nations India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Bangladesh must consider forming a regional counter terrorism alliance. Modi seems to be preparing ground for such an arrangement.

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Modi shores up maritime neighbourhood on his first bilateral visit to Maldives

For long, conjured up with the totemic precincts of South Asia, Indian strategic pursuits remained boxed in the framework of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). Surpassing the barricades of prefixed boundaries, Modi made a dynamic move of inviting BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) leaders for his swearing-in ceremony signalling India’s east ward orientation. Complementing his pragmatic diplomatic outreach, reinforcing the inclusivity of “Neighbourhood First Policy”, Prime Minister Modi, the leader of the largest democratic republic began his second innings with a maiden bilateral visit to Maldives, the tiny Muslim nation.

During his first term, Modi reshaped India’s ties with immediate neighbours with numerous bilateral visits, generous credit lines and invoking traditional links. But India’s ties took a hit under Maldivian President Yameen whose overturned India First Policy of Male and made overt overtures to China. Indo-Maldivian ties nosedived under an authoritarian Yameen who imposed emergency, denied visas to Indian personnel stationed in Maldives and returned reconnaissance choppers gifted by India. India resisted use of force, took diplomatic recourse and ensured conduct of free and fair elections. Surprise victory of President Mohammed Solih supported by Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) put the archipelago back on to the path of democracy. Reiterating India’s support to people’s verdict, Prime Minister Modi the lone South Asian leader to be invited for the oath taking ceremony graced the occasion. Asserting India’s support to the Indian Ocean Archipelago, Modi resurrected India’s ties with its western maritime neighbour.

Reciprocating Modi’s visit, Solih made India the first port of call after assuming charge. Injecting new confidence and trust, India offered a generous assistance of $1.4 billion financial assistance as budgetary support, currency swap and credit line for economic development to Solih government staring at a Chinese debt trap. Months after Solih’s visit, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj signed an agreement extending $ 800 million credit line for financial reconstruction. While New Delhi was sympathetic towards the economic plight of Maldives it demanded that India’s financial aid shouldn’t be used for servicing Chinese debts. Series of high-level visits thus reinvigorated bilateral ties.

Modi’s first bilateral visit not only reaffirmed geostrategic importance of neighbourhood first policy but envisaged to give a massive fillip to the SAGAR doctrine. On his visit to Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka in 2015, Modi pronounced Indian Ocean Strategy, SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) underscoring the importance of securing the maritime domains and developing blue economy to transform economies of Indian Ocean Islands. The doctrine attempts to address the issues of sustainable development and challenges faced by Small Island Nations grappling with climate change. Maldives which abuts the major shipping routes of the Indian Ocean and just 750 nautical miles away from Indian peninsula is strategically important for security and stability of the Indian Ocean Region.

Modi’s first visit to the Archipelago after returning to power attests India’s commitment in furthering democracy and symbolised return of peace, law and order to the islands which reeled under emergency imposed by an authoritarian regime. Espousing the two-pronged strategy of reinvigorating and strengthening ties and to address special needs and concerns of small islands Modi travelled to Male on June 8^th. Modi was received by the foreign minister Abdulla Shahid received ceremonial reception. Invited to address the session of the newly constituted Majilis (Parliament of Maldives), Modi paid glowing tributes to the indomitable courage and will of the people who overwhelmingly chose democracy. Speaking from the pedestal of Power at Maldives Republic, Modi put forth his vision for the region, the challenges faced and offered unstinted cooperation towards its development. He asserted that mantra of “Sab ka saath sab ka vikas and sab ka vishwas” (together with all, for the development of all and with the trust of all) is not only for India but is guiding principle of his foreign policy. He called the centuries old trade, cultural and ethnic ties between both countries and listed some words which have same meaning in both Hindi and Divehi language. Driving home the importance of fostering the cultural links between both the countries, Modi agreed to start ferry service between Kochi and Male to strengthen people to people connect.

Pledging mutual cooperation, amidst the growing geopolitical uncertainties, realignments and shifting axis of power, Modi recounted three major challenges of the region-terrorism, climate change and need for rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific. These sectors have become vital areas for mutual cooperation as well. The Indian sub-continent and more specifically, Maldives is beset by rampant indoctrination and radicalisation. On per capita basis, Maldives is the only non-Arab country with highest number of foreign fighters in ISIS. Radicalisation received a huge fillip under Yameen’s regime who trampled the syncretic attributes of the archipelago. State sponsor terrorism similar to climate change has emerged as major challenge in the contemporary times. Modi sought cooperation of international community to convening global summits to address the same. He condemned the penchant of countries that justify this barbarism under the illogical distinction of “good and bad terrorists”.

Speaking about the adverse effects of adverse climate change leading to melting of ice caps, concomitant rise in sea-water levels and threat of inundation faced by small island nations, Modi reflected on India’s climate change initiative International Solar Alliance (ISA) a joint initiative of India and France. He congratulated Maldives for ratifying ISA and highlighted potential use of renewable energy sources in mitigating climate changes. With centres of power shifting from the West to the East, the construct of Indo-Pacific is finding greater relevance. Though there still remains some confusion about the demarcation of Indo-Pacific region home to 50% of World’s population, New Delhi’s definition stretches from Gulf of Aden to Malacca Straits. Severe contestations, unresolved maritime and territorial disputes turned Indo-Pacific, a hotbed for rivalries. To ensure stability in this region, nations must subscribe to rules-based order. Increasingly, small island nations are insisting on their “Indian Ocean identity”. By acknowledging the strategic importance of Maldives which is conscious of its maritime salience, Modi has enhanced political leverage of India. By invoking India’s policy of “Vasudaivakutumbakam” Modi vouched to support Maldives for the greater prosperity and common good of the region. These traditional underpinning go a long way in earning trust of the neighbours. Taking an indirect at China, Modi assured that India’s developmental partnerships would empower people, enhance progress, reduce dependence and not weaken them.

Cementing ties and laying foundation for nation building institutions, India and Maldives signed MoUs in the field of hydrography, health, establishment of passenger and cargo services by Sea, cooperation in customs capacity building, sharing white water shipping information. Leaders have jointly inaugurated the Composite Training Facility of the Maldives National Defence Force in Maafilafushi and Coastal Surveillance Radar System by remote link.

India offered to construct an international cricket stadium and provide world class training facilities. Maldives in return allotted land for the new Chancery Building at Hulhumale. As a token of appreciation of Modi’s stellar efforts in revamping Indo-Maldivian ties and India’s magnanimous financial assistance, Maldivian government has conferred the highest civilian award, the Order of the Distinguished Rule of Izzudeen. This honour is an indirect recognition of “patient diplomacy” adopted by India which resisted the temptation to intervene militarily despite President Yameen’s repeated provocations. Restoration of democracy has opened up a fresh chapter in Maldivian politics. India’s resolve to help Maldives to address its developmental challenges and priorities has turned the tide in favour of New Delhi. At a time, when analysts have announced that India has lost its neighbourhood to China through persistent and concerted efforts, India is slowly winning them back. Effusive warmth, new faith and Maldivian desire to “rekindle old friendships while fostering new ones” marks a new high in Indo-Maldivian ties.

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Book Review: Traces of Indian Culture in Vietnam

The colossal Angkor Wat of Cambodia stands as a towering acknowledgement of India’s civilizational presence in the region. Even the celebration of Hindu way of life in the Indonesian Island Bali testimonies overwhelming Indic influence. Indeed, Ramayana is regarded as a veritable cultural link between India and South East Asian Countries. Highlighting the iconic historical religious and cultural connect between South East Asian countries and India, Philippines during the inaugural session of ASEAN Summit at Manila in 2018 staged an opera on Ramayana. Traces of Indian culture in various South East region are widely known. The three-day long elaborate coronation ceremony of Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn in May, mirrored traditional ancient India rituals. Be it invocation of positive vibes from the eight directions-cardinal and ordinal, ritualistic bath from waters collected from 108 sources as purification exercise, the anointment and final procession on palanquin, nearly every event of the grand ceremony resembled the practices carried out in ancient Indian courts. Further all these rituals were conducted by Buddhist and Brahmin priests. All these attributes, ritualistic resembles reinforces the fact that the expanse of Indian sub-continent and South East Asia nestled Hinduism, an integral part of Indic civilisation.

The book “Traces of Indian Culture in Vietnam” unveils new perspectives about the indelible imprints of Hindu culture in Vietnam. For varied reasons India always had a very special relationship with Vietnam. India’s assistance and help towards rehabilitation of war-ravaged Vietnam have bolstered those relations further. Author Historian Geetesh Sharma who spanned the length and breadth of Vietnam diligently collated valuable information about the oldest Hindu temples dated back to 2^nd/3^rd century and their close architectural resemblances to Hindu temples in India. All the temples in Vietnam were constructed by Cham rulers.  Cham rulers of the Cham Kingdom or the Champa Kingdom were Indian traders who travelled to Vietnam. But French historians established that the Cham Kingdom which ruled Vietnam from 2^nd to 15^th century had Austro-Asian origins undermining Indic connections. Numerous statues, mostly of Hindu Gods, stelas, towers, found across different parts of Vietnam and preserved in museums unequivocally confirm the impressionable reflections of Hindu culture. The book besides challenging the theories of French eloquently establishes organic links of Cham community that religiously follows the lunar Saka calendar and Hindu festivals to India. It also carries detailed accounts of various Hindu temples/ towers/ monuments in Vietnam.

The political dispensation at the helm of affairs which is keen on strengthening ties with South East Asian countries under the “Act East Policy” must now use these invaluable cultural and religious links in cementing ties.

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Thirty years after Tiananmen Square Massacre China is more repressive and authoritarian

On the early hours of June 4^th, 1989 thousands of students who occupied the Tiananmen Square of Beijing calling for social reforms were mercilessly massacred. Thirty years after this brutal repression the young Chinese are completely are unaware of the high-handed oppression of the totalitarian state. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which rules the country with an iron fist has censored all the references to the students protests. By imposing tight leash on the internet, Chinese government has managed to extricate anti-party protests from public memory. It has successfully created a cultural amnesia about this event which sowed the seeds of democracy in the Communist land. According to the reports of human rights activists and international agencies it is believed that this massacre claimed lives of 10,000 students. A decade after introduction of economic reforms, Chinese students keen on social and political transformation aspired for freedom of speech. Perceiving these traits as threat to the one-party communist rule, Paramount leader President Deng Xiaoping mobilised army and called for suppression of the protests by force.

Ironically while Chinese government ensured erasure of all references to the Tiananmen Square massacre from the public domain, President Xi praised the May 4^th Students protests which marked birth of CCP. Ever since CCP reigned supreme, Marxism made way into China and people are expected to be subservient to the party. While the event is widely celebrated, the two principles “free thought and all-embracing tolerance” expounded during the May 4^th students’ protests are yet to find their place in China. Open-criticism of the party is not tolerated and student dissenters often disappeared.

The west which initially imposed some sanctions on China in response to Tiananmen massacre, engrossed by the democratic movement which led to fall of Berlin wall and subsequent collapse of Soviet Union, revoked imposition of arms embargo. Communist party, banned the entry of foreign media, censored the domestic media, purged officials sympathetic towards protests and jailed several student leaders and muzzled the democratic voices.  The world which was preoccupied by the Korean war, hardly battled an eyelid to censure China for annexing Tibet in 1950. Similarly, the international community roiled by the US-Soviet Union collision and the Cuban missile crisis, never bother to castigate Beijing for invading India in 1962. The absence of international approbation towards unparalleled two-decade long homicide by the Supreme leader, Mao Zedong during the Great Leap Forward (1956-62) and cultural revolution (1966-76) that resulted in the death of 42.5 million encouraged President Deng to crush students dissent with an iron fist. Worse so, unbuoyed by the excesses perpetrated by Mao, US have informally reached out to China in 1972 to shift geopolitical calculus in its favour. Though US and the UN imposed a total trade embargo on China for its intervention in 1950 Korean war, UN lifted sanctions immediately after the war in 1953. The US strictly put a sanction regime on strategic goods in place till 1972. But by and large, the economic sanctions remain a mere pretence as Chinese economy made impressive gains during the supposed sanction regime from 1950-72. After 1953 majority of the countries lifted sanctions, Soviet Union returned Chinese properties and offered financial assistance. By diversifying trade after falling out with Soviet Union in 1960, China registered trade surplus. The regime which oversaw homicide never suffered for its authoritarian disposition.

Indifference of the international community towards numerous crackdown and public protests have bolstered the authoritarian rise of China. Emboldened by the international silence, Beijing which ever paid any price for the ruthless crackdown rose to phenomenal heights becoming the second largest economy of the World. America which was keen on strengthening its foot hold in China through trade since the times of President Truman, turned a blind eye to the activities of the Communist party. With cursory condemnations, America even ignored the predatory trade practices of China.  Lately under President Trump, US woken up to the dramatic rise of China poised to challenge the super power is a pressing red button and started imposing some costs.

China acquired significant global clout after three-decades of double-digit growth redoubled its efforts to consolidate its position in this part of the globe. Giving boost to the nationalistic rise of China, President Xi aggressively pursued Chinese interests. Moving away from the paradigm of “biding your time and hiding your strengths”, Xi carried out the aggressive reclamation of the territorial features in the South China Sea (SCS). In 2012, China stealthily occupied Scarborough Shoal claimed by Philippines refused US mediation, persisted on direct talks with Philippines to resolve the issue. After failing to evict China from the Shoal, Philippines pulled up China to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in 2014. Finally, when the court ruled in favour of Philippines but China blatantly rejected the verdict in 2016. Baring an official condemnation, nations across the globe, silently watched the spectacle.

Internment of over 1 million Uighur Muslims in camps and complete domestic surveillance in the Xinjiang province now stands as a tall example of China’s unrestrained use of power against its own citizens. Following Uighur rioting and stabbing of Han Chinese in the Urumqi in 2009, CCP has intensified crackdown on them. Ever since, Uighurs were coerced to relinquish their religious and cultural identities. Majority of them are separated from their families, detained in so called, re-education camps without any legal process are compelled to renounce Islam. Over 11 million Uighurs are subjected to round the clock surveillance and forced to give their DNA and biometric samples. Citing concerns of terrorism, China has been justifying its actions and denying access to international media. Concerned by the plight of the Uighurs, the UN and human rights agencies demanded access to the camps. Much to the chagrin of the global world, countries and especially Muslim nations prioritising strategic and economic relations with China chose to ignore China’s human rights abuses. Other than issuing official condemnations even US failed to “hold China accountable”.

China which spares no dissent incarcerated the Nobel Laureate Liu Xiaobo who carried a non-violent struggle for the fundamental rights of Chinese.  Despite appeals from international society, China refused medical assistance to Liu ailing from liver cancer. After his death in 2017 Germany vehemently criticised China and other countries followed the suit. But China didn’t face a glitch. It has been business as usual. For the past six decades, China refused to concede the genuine demands of the Tibetans who are seeking autonomy. Beijing rejected pleas of the people of Hongkong, a former British Colony, keen on exercising universal suffrage to elect their representatives. China has been crushing the protests of people with iron fist for the past seven decades. CCP is intolerant towards independent democratic voices that spearheaded Umbrella movement as well. 

Perceiving domestic dissent as a major threat, China is doubling its expenditure towards domestic security. In terms of absolute figures for the year 2017, People Liberation Army (PLA) spent $ 161 billion as opposed to $196 billion by internal security forces. The spending patterns clearly reflect the precocious internal security status of China.

Though the West detests monopoly of CCP, wary of a fall out with the Middle Kingdom chose to look the other way. This augured well for President Xi’s pursuits who ambitiously launched BRI (Belt and Road Initiatives) to expand Chinese global presence. With its meteoric rise, authoritarian China sizzled as an alternative to the ideology expounded by the West.  Dictatorial leaderships across the world began to draw inspiration from the Middle Kingdom. But in course of time mercantilist trade practices, opaque transactions of China leading to the economic meltdown of smaller BRI nations began to rebound. Bogged down by concerns of economic viability, sovereignty issues and environmental concerns China’s actions came under international scrutiny. Credibility of China slumped and international backlash dented its image.

Last year, brandishing several unique distinctions to his credit, President Xi, undermined the CCP. He abolished two-term succession rule instituted by President Deng and became “Emperor for life time”. Brooking no dissent, Xi began cracking down on his political enemies by framing corruption charges and incarcerating them in jails for indefinite periods. Despotic disposition of Xi is brewing dissent among the party cadres as well. The triple whammy of trade war with the US, slowing economy, burgeoning international backlash is fuelling unrest among the Chinese who are now feeling the pangs of oppression. Though Chinese government has firewalled its people against pro-democratic movements, domestic dissent triggered by absolute authoritarianism are bound to clamp brakes on the triumphalism of Beijing. Thirty years after the Tiananmen massacre, there are still no signs of democracy. On the contrary, by reversing the institutionalised collective leadership China has become more repressive and authoritarian.

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Modi kickstarts new term by expanding horizons of friendship with immediate and extended neighbourhood

Having laid firm ground for a pragmatic foreign policy during his first term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi who returned to power with spectacular mandate entered into a mission mode.  As a novice, Modi surprised strategists with his out of the box initiative of inviting SAARC members for his swearing-in ceremony in 2014. Pressing into action, his foreign policy doctrine of bolstering regional ties, Modi inaugurated his second innings and invited heads of the state of the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) member countries for his oath taking ceremony.

Back in 2014 with a focus on improving ties with South Asian countries, Modi Unveiled Neighbourhood first policy. In response to the changing geopolitical equations, India unwilling to be encumbered by the narrow definitions of South Asia has sought to revive its ties beyond the narrow defines of the region. In a bid to “reimagine its neighbourhood”, beyond the boundaries of SAARC, Modi began cultivating ties with BIMSTEC countries. In 2016, India invited BIMSTEC countries for the 2016 BRICS summit at Goa and ever since, New Delhi took special interest in reviving the regional grouping started in 1997. At the 4^th BIMSTEC summit at Kathmandu, member countries reiterated strong commitment to combat terrorism. Soon, the countries held a joint anti-terror military drills for the first time in September 2018. Sustaining the momentum, New Delhi is seeking to enhance multi-dimensional cooperation with BIMSTEC countries, which are integral to India’s- Neighbourhood First Policy, Act East and Indo-Pacific construct.

BIMSTEC sub-regional grouping includes littorals of Bay of Bengal-Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Himalayan countries Nepal and Bhutan. Except Thailand and Myanmar all other countries are part of the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). To aggressively promote regional cooperation, South Asian countries ambitiously started SAARC, but Pakistan’s intransigence and insidious anti-India agenda marred grouping. BIMSTEC is thus a perfect alternative to the SAARC nearing extinction.

Due to Pakistan’s obstructionist approach, India’s whose aspirations are impeded was driven towards BIMSTEC. Despite three decades of existence, SAARC as a regional grouping fail to achieve its basic objectives of enhancing regional cooperation, seamless connectivity and heightened economic cooperation. Islamabad held SAARC hostage its animosities towards India and roadblocked India’s initiatives. Eventually, in search of better opportunities for greater economic engagement, smaller countries began to look beyond the sub-continent. China another giant in the immediate vicinity became obvious choice. Capable of doling out big monies, Beijing stepped up investments, unveiled connectivity corridors with SAARC countries and making inroads into the region. These developments posed a strategic challenge to India’s interests in the region. Though India can’t compete with China in terms of extending financial assistance, New Delhi expedited infrastructure projects with BIMSTEC countries.

India shares both land and sea borders with BIMSTEC countries rejuvenated its ties to bolster Act East Policy. Given the geographical proximity and strategic location, driven by its agenda of strengthening connectivity links with North East, which is faraway from economic centres and ensure security in the Bay of Bengal region India engaged with BIMSTEC. Myanmar and Thailand, in continuum with Indian sub-continent served as pivotal land bridges to South East Asian Region and beyond. Thus, a comprehensive engagement with BIMSTEC could provide massive fillip to India’s Act East Policy. Of late Bay of Bengal is emerging as a strategically important region since it overlaps with the Indo-Pacific which is witnessing major power contestations. By virtue of its proximity to this region, India is now proving to be an indispensable partner in the power play of Indo-Pacific cooperation.

Besides, BIMSTEC members Modi extended invitation to Kyrgyzstan Republic and Mauritius, that represent Central Asia and Indian Ocean Region respectively. Kyrgyzstan, the current chair of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is India’s gateway to the Eurasian Region. Modi is keen on using this opportunity to step up India’s bilateral ties with Kyrgyz Republic interested in Indian defence equipment. Since his visit to Central Asian Republics in 2015, Modi government had revitalised ties with the region energising India’s Connect Central Asia Policy of 2012. Earlier in 2011, India initiated “Khanjar series” of joint military exercises with Kyrgyz Republic. Since then India established IT centres at Krygyz Military units and expanded the military drills. Krygyz has sourced most of its defence products from Russia. Given the commonality of the equipment, Kyrgyz is interested in Indian defence technologies. India is likely to extend $100 million line of credit for the same.

Maritime security cooperation is top most priority of India foreign policy. In line with India’s approach to secure vital shipping lines and expand its maritime presence New Delhi signed an agreement to upgrade sea and air links to the Agalega islands of Mauritius. Modi’s invitation thus reiterates India’s commitment to strengthen multi-faceted bilateral cooperation with Mauritius which has 68% of people of Indian Origin.

Given the assertive rise of China, its looming presence in the Indian Ocean Region and stealthy intrusions into the Bay of Bengal region, India is now forced to shift its focus to BIMSTEC region.  For long, India endured the traditional diplomatic hostility of Pakistan and vain fully expended resources and diplomatic capital in energising SAARC. Sceptical of SAARC’s revival, India embarked on exploring potential trade and investment opportunities by expanding its frontiers to new sub-regions. While cooperation among BIMSTEC countries is still in infancy through renewed outreach efforts, Modi besides underscoring the importance of BIMSTEC infused fresh energy for intra-regional cooperation. Honouring Modi’s invitation President of Sri Lanka Maithripala Sirisena, President of Bangladesh Mohammed Abdul Hamid, Prime Minister of Nepal K. P. Sharma Oli, Prime Minister of Bhutan Dr Lotay Tshering, President of Myanamar U Win Myint, Special Envoy of Thailand Grisada Boonrach, President of Kyrgyzstan Sooronbay Jeenbekov and Prime Minister of Mauritius Pravid Jugnauth attended the swearing in ceremony of Prime Minister Modi. Hours after taking charge, Modi held wide-ranging deliberations with President of Kyrgyz Republic.

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