India-Japan win-win partnership

India holds annual summit meets with two countries-Russia and Japan while India is the only country with which Japan has such an arrangement. Before embarking for Japan, Prime Minister Modi described India and Japan as “winning combination”. Calling Prime Minister Modi his most dependable friend, in his message to India, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, “We share big win-win potential in all areas and Japan remains committed to supporting India’s economic growth and Prime Minister’s Make in India initiative through high-speed rail, subways and other infrastructure, mobilising Japan’s leading technologies. The day when Shinkansen bullet trains starts running between Mumbai and Ahmedabad through cooperation will mark a shining symbol of Japan-India friendship in the future”.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to Japan on Oct 28^th to attend 13^th Annual Summit. India and Japan the largest and the Asia’s richest democracies, devoid of baggage of historical hostilities forged a relationship of trust and friendship based on complementary interests in the region. Chinese belligerence and eventual aggressive rise paved way for deepening of Indo-Japanese bilateral ties. The synergistic congruence between India’s “Act East Policy” and Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” heralded a new era of extensive cooperation in fields of security, information technology, infrastructure, skilling, health, information technology and tourism between the countries. The term “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” was first coined by Abe in 2007 who unequivocally underscored the importance and the crucial of role India in the region. In 2014, bilateral ties are upgraded to “Special Strategic and Global Partnership”. Besides, a vast realm of cooperation in various areas, the focus of the current summit is to explore mechanisms for enhancing bilateral defence and security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

During his two-day long visit, both leaders spent the first day together at Abe’s holiday home at Yamanashi prefecture near Mount Fuji, a privilege that was never extended to any other foreign leader underscoring their close personal chemistry. The genial pictures of both Prime Minister by the fire place aptly summarized the warmth of Indo-Japanese relationship. But what makes Modi’s current visit to Japan so unusual is the timing. It comes close on heels after Shinzo Abe’s unprecedented three-day state visit to China-for the first time in seven years. Japan-China relations touched a new low in 2012 over the territorial disputes in the East China sea and the disputed Senkaku islands. This culminated in China declaring Air Defence Identification Zone over East China Sea subsequently. Ever since the relations remained frosty. But the optics of Abe’s recent visit to China present a completely different picture. It is no secret that despite historical animosities China is Japan’s largest trading partner amounting to $300 billion. China’s owes its rise to Japanese aid and technology and U.S. assistance. For long China has been largest recipient of Japan’s ODA (official Development Assistance). Japan stopped its assistance after China over took Japan as a largest economy in Asia.

Grappling under the economic sanctions and protectionist policies of Trump China has softened its stance and reached out to Japan and India.  An informal Wuhan summit between President Xi and Modi, a slew of high-level exchanges between China and Japan and Abe’s official visit reflected Beijing’s recalibration of ties. Abe signed a $30 billion currency swap agreement, extended support to BRI and third-party cooperation. But India shouldn’t be worried about these developments since Indo-Japanese partnership is driven by strategic interests and resonating complementarities. Despite efforts by China and Japan for fruitful engagement, territorial disputes running in the background will remain a major irritant.

At the same time the dynamic of geopolitical equations is undergoing rapid transformations. The winds of change stoked by President Trump who at the helm of the affairs is assiduously hinting at a major revamp of America’s security obligations towards traditional partners. Uncertainty of America’s security umbrella had exacerbated Japan’s concerns of China’s brazen display of power and provocative intrusions, North Korea’s aggressive nuclear pursuits and South Korea’s intransigent approach. For long Abe was pushing for amending the Article 9 of Japan’s 1947 Pacifist Constitution that restrains the Japanese Self Defence Forces from operating beyond the Japanese shores. Another burgeoning challenge for Abe is to bring economy out of deflation. Interestingly, revitalising ties with China offers a plausible solution to address these challenges. While Abe has required two-third majority, to amend constitution, he requires support of opposition and public. Curiously, the principle opposition party Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is left-leaning. To rejuvenate economy, Japan must make extensive investments and Japanese businessman still find China more conducive.

Under Abe legal and constitutional restraints are relatively eased. The need for fortifying security architecture is being recognised.  Aside focussing on the territorial defence, Abe is contemplating on allowing Japan’s self defense forces operations in regions away from Japanese shores. To this end, Japan is looking forward to intensifying maritime cooperation with India. As agreed in 2017, India and Japan began negotiations on Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) a logistical support accord whereby Indian Navy can access Japan’s Djibouti base while Japan Self Defense Forces can use port at Andaman and Nicobar Islands near the Malacca Straits for refuelling and servicing. This can enhance strategic depth of defence cooperation. Since 2015 Japan has become part of the Malabar exercises started by India and Japan in 1992. Countries will now commence joint exercises of the trilateral forces.  India has similar logistical support agreements with US, France and Singapore.

While the bilateral trade accounts for mere $15 billion to enhance economic and financial cooperation, both countries concluded Bilateral Swap Agreement (BSA) for $75 billion (this was limited to $10 billion previously). This will ease India’s financial crisis at a time when global uncertainties and surging oil prices are taking a toll on its economy. Reaffirming faith in furthering defence and security cooperation, countries expressed desire to start the 2+2 dialogue in addition to the existing mechanisms. This would certainly add more depth and weight to bilateral strategic partnership.

Leaders stressed the need for multi-lateral trading systems, free, fair and open trade for sustainable development and global prosperity. In an obvious reference to China’s growing assertiveness, both leaders stated vision for Indo-Pacific, “based on a rules-based order that respects sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations, ensures freedom of navigation and overflight as well as unimpeded lawful commerce, and seeks peaceful resolution  of disputes with full respect for legal and diplomatic processes in accordance with the universally recognised principles of international law, including those reflected in the UNCLOS without resorting to threat or use of force”. Welcoming the discussions for establishment of, “Platform for Japan-India Business Cooperation in Asia- Africa Region”, envisaged uder Asia Africa Growth Corridor initiative, both countries agreed to working on collaborative projects- housing, education and electrification projects in Myanmar, LNG-related infrastructure in Sri Lanka, road-bridge-rail projects in Bangladesh and business development and health initiatives in Kenya. They underscored the importance of complete, verifiable and irreversible nuclear disarmament of North Korea and condemned terrorism in strongest terms.

Speaking at joint press conference Abe said, “A strong Japan benefits India and a strong India benefits Japan”. Modi responded, “Without India-Japan cooperation, there will be no development in Asia into the next century”. They oversaw the signing of second phase of Indo-Japan high speed rail project. Japan has pledged low-interest loans worth $2.8 billion for infrastructure projects which includes $150 million towards bullet train project. This arrangement conclusively demolished falsities of Congress that Japan cancelled loans to high speed rail project.

One of the top priorities of Act East Policy of India is development of North East which can act as spring board for India’s engagement with South East Asian region as well. Japan has the unique distinction of being part of India’s infrastructure development projects in the North East and the sensitive disputed border regions. To give major fillip to North East connectivity and disaster management project, countries have constituted India-Japan Act East Forum in 2017. In the second meeting held in October countries identified key infrastructure, capacity development, forest management and biodiversity projects. To promote people to people interaction, Japanese learning program are started in North East universities.

Addressing Indian Diaspora at Tokyo, Modi appreciated their contributions towards furthering Indo-Japan relations and suggested a 3C mantra-Contribute, Co-exist to Conquer Hearts. He attended Business Symposium on “Make in India, Digital Partnership and India-Japan Partnership in Africa.” Modi invited Japanese business leaders to avail opportunities offered by India. Both leaders travelled to Tokyo from Yamanashi prefecture by bullet train and throughout the duration of the visit, the effusive warmth on display was unmissable.

In sync with changing world order, countries are recalibrating their strategies to advance their national interests. To this end, countries are forging new tactical alliances and deepening cooperation with longstanding allies with converging mutual interests. Owing to China’s steady economic rise, the fulcrum has shifted to the east and centred around the Indo-Pacific region. Though America have envisaged this shift and launched “pivot to Asia” it failed to pursue this policy with enthusiasm and vigour. With American influence gradually receding in the strategic Indo-Pacific region, countries like India and Japan keen on maintaining peace and stability in the region have intensified cooperation. They are exploring new mechanism to deepen cooperation to counter the aggressive China. While Trump’s uncertain policies have certainly forced Japan to recalibrate its ties with China, India’s economic growth potential, lucrative markets, envious demographic dividend and geographical positioning offers an immense scope for strengthening special strategic and global partnership.

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