Can BJP’s exit from PDP-alliance lay a new foundation for its Kashmir policy?

BJP General Secretary, Ram Madhav, the principal negotiator of PDP-BJP alliance in Jammu and Kashmir yesterday announced, “It has untenable for the BJP to continue in the alliance government in the state” triggering two immediate reactions. The decision which was welcomed by a vast majority as better late than never, was rued as a desperate attempt of BJP to foster its national ambitions by critics. With general elections, 11 months away, people drew parallels to time tested Indira’s tactic of creating a war like situation to win elections. Against these deliberations, the unmissable fact remains that security situation in Kashmir has steadily deteriorated.

Suspension of operations by Indian Army during the month-long Ramzan has tipped the balance in favour of terrorists.  Much against the wishes of security personnel, the PDP leader Mehbooba garnering support from the regional political parties and Congress, prevailed on the central leadership to give in to the peace initiative of unilateral ceasefire during Ramzan and Amarnath Yatra. Apprehensive of losing support of the dominant separatist forces, from the beginning, Mehbooba pandered to them in the valley and strongly rejected muscular approach. She constantly batted for bilateral talks and restoration of trade ties with Pakistan. Despite reservations from security officials who opined that ceasefire might be conceived as “weakness” referencing the Non-Initiation of Combat Operations (NICO), announced by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2000 which led to a massive attack on Srinagar airport. But central government, meekly accepted Mehbooba’s plea for creating a conducive atmosphere in the valley. Interestingly, while centre has conceded Mehbooba’s demand, Laskhar-E-Toiba, Hizbul Mujahideen and Jaish-E-Mohammed rejected ceasefire and pledged to step up operations. Essentially, Mehabooba tied down hands of Indian Security personnel by extracting a pledge of condoning operations.

For three long years, despite incorrigible ideological differences, BJP continued to be in alliance with the dominant partner PDP to be part of the state government to reset the Kashmir issue. But the last straw in the form of cold-blooded murder of editor of Rising Kashmir, Shujaat Bhukhari, a peacenik, who supported track-II diplomacy and brutal killing of army personnel, Aurangzeb, prompted BJP to pull the plug from the alliance. Aurangzeb, a rifleman who was abducted from Pulwama on Thursday was part of Major Rohit Shukla’s team that neutralised Hizbul Mujahadeen terrorist Samir Tiger. Terrorists intercepted the private vehicle, in which Aurangzeb was travelling home for Eid and killed him. His bullet ridden body has created a massive uproar. In his emotional appeal Hanief, father of Aurangzeb, ex-army personnel questioned why Pakistani flags are waved in valley. His message of “I give PM Modi 72 hours to avenge my son’s death or else we are ready to take revenge on our own. Kashmir is ours. We must not let Kashmir burn. Instead we must eliminate the goons who are destroying the valley” went viral. Similarly, killing of journalist in broad day in the high security area of Srinagar, has created fear in civilians. Aside, these two incidents a day before Eid, terrorists inflicted major losses to Indian Army by indiscriminately attacking security personnel and hurling grenades. Over three dozen people which includes army personnel were killed during the month long unilateral ceasefire. Pakistan violated the LoC at will and over 1,00,000 people in the bordering villages were displaced. Twice during the Ramzan ceasefire, Pakistan DGMO pledged to uphold 2003 ceasefire agreement. But Pakistan reneged its assurance leading to death of BSF personnel. Reports suggested that cessation of operations against terrorists gave them time to regroup and consolidate their position triggering the joining of over 40 Kashmiri youth  in militant ranks.

Reiterating its commitment to root out terrorism from the valley, the day after Eid, on Sunday, government announced end of ceasefire operations. After reports of alleged coercion of police force and security lapse began to surface, central government held talks with NSA, Ajit Doval following which BJP Chief Amit Shah, after meeting with leaders from Kashmir formally decided to walk out PDP alliance. To utter surprise of political pundits who predicted that PDP would leave the alliance, forcing BJP ministers to resign, though late, BJP smartly pulled out the plug and forced Mehbooba to tender resignation. The PDP which admitted that it was unaware of BJP’s sudden decision was left to lick its wounds. Politicians across the board termed it as a betrayal and blamed BJP for the current situation. Though the fall of an incompatible coalition was imminent, the sudden turn of events and BJP’s checkmate startled PDP.

In 2017, after a gap of 15 years, Indian Army has launched an offensive, revived- Cordon and Search Operations (CASO)s following the killing of Ummer Fayaz in Shopian by terrorists. Involving 4000 personnel, Army intensified its retaliation in South Kashmir and the terrorist fatalities touched all time high by May. Pro-separatist and pro-Pakistani Mehbooba’s demand of ceasefire has axed Indian Army’s combat operations which has made significant gains.

The Ramzan ceasefire not only miserably failed in generating conciliatory approach in separatists but also pilfered the significant gains made by Indian Army against terrorists. Consequently, BJP which is at helm of affairs both at centre and state had to bear the heat. Moreover, India’s soft approach towards Pakistan-sponsored terrorism at behest of Mehbooba, gave room for China to brook about a trilateral dialogue between India-Pakistan and China under the aegis of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation).

In the 2014, Jammu and Kashmir assembly threw a fractured mandate with PDP bagging maximum seats and BJP emerged as the second largest party. Seizing the opportunity, despite ideological differences, BJP came forward to form a government with PDP. Defending its decision, BJP conceded that it is open to form a coalition government with PDP to uphold democratic process. It maintained that it intends to honour electoral mandate bestowed by two regions of Kashmir-Jammu and Ladakh. From the beginning, people predicted that it would an incompatible alliance with political parties terming it as "Himalayan Blunder". Notwithstanding these criticisms, BJP entered an alliance with PDP after torturous two-month negotiations forging an "Agenda of alliance". In the process, BJP gave up its demands of abolition of article 370 and abandonment on article 35A that allows state government to decide who are permanent residents paving way for eventual Kashmir’s integration with country. In return, BJP had a big slap on face with Mufti Mohammed on his swearing-in ceremony in March 2015, thanking Pakistan for the smooth conduct of elections and seeking release of hard core separatist, Masrat Alam. The shaky alliance suffered a massive jolt with the death of Mufti Mohammed in January 2016. After three-months of hard bargaining, Mehbooba agreed to be Chief Minister reluctantly. Soon, crisis erupted in the Valley with killing of Burhan Wani in July during which Pakistan pumped money to orchestrate protests that lasted for three months severely crippling the economic activity of the region. In response to treacherous Uri attack, government launched surgical strikes, in September, which boosted morale of security personnel and elevated BJP’s image. Baring a brief respite during the demonetisation, relentless terror attacks began to torment the valley.

Unabated ceasefire violations and infiltrations which registered whopping increase demanded a hard-line approach. PDP’s inherent soft-separatist approach severally constrained BJP’s Zero tolerance towards terrorism.  Further, PDP’s amnesty policy towards stone pelters, belittling heroic acts of Major Leetul Gogoi and Major Aditya and several other issues elicited doubts about BJP’s hard-line approach. Mehbooba’s overt Pro-Pakistani stance undermining India’s interest and BJP’s meek submission under perceived coalition compulsion sent mixed signals. BJP's flexible approach as opposed to its hard stance towards terrorism has dented its image among the two regions of the state, Jammu and Ladakh. Further BJP’s unfulfilled promise or mere tokenism towards Kashmiri Pandits irked the Hindu minority. On the other hand, even extremism and jihad continue to escalate. As a junior partner in the coalition BJP’s promises remained as mere lip homage. People from Indic religions are growing restless with reports of 800 times increase in Wahabbi mosques.

Clearly, both the parties, with different vote banks had pinned hopes on their leaders to deliver. Mehabooba who courts hard line Islamists posed impediments for the central government in adopting a muscular approach. Overt appeasement of separatists has clearly emboldened terrorists who began to wreak havoc in the valley. Instinctively, with terrorism reaching a tipping point, BJP walked out the coalition citing growing terror and discrimination towards Jammu and Ladakh regions.

After the cessation of unilateral ceasefire, Indian Army has gunned down three JeM terrorists. With the fall of doomed alliance and imposition of government’s rule army will have a free hand now. Currently NC, is batting for early elections. But taking stock of the ground situation, BJP has recommended governor’s rule. Elections around the corner, Pakistan has increased firing along the international border. In the past four years, Modi government extended a hand of friendship to Pakistan, invited Islamabad for swearing-in ceremony and Modi made an impromptu visit to Lahore. But Pakistan reciprocated by escalating terror attacks. In a vain effort to restore peace and harmony in the valley, BJP entered alliance with a pro-separatist party, PDP. By now Modi government, should realise that appeasement of a pernicious enemy and a pathological India hater is futile. India must fight Pakistan from position of strength to find a plausible solution for seven-decade long Kashmir issue.

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