Is trivialisation of surgical strikes justified?

In September 2016, Modi government announced that Indian Army has carried out surgical strikes against the terror camps abutting the LoC in the PoK region. Soon, Army confirmed the announcement declaring that a team of meticulously trained men successfully launched attacks and returned safely without any loss of limb or life. In unequivocal terms hailed the operation as one of its kind carried out by Indian Army. Indians celebrated India Army's victory and reposed great faith in the noble institution.

Losing no time, Pakistan government denied Indian claims and giving boost to Islamabad's charges, Opposition questioned the veracity of the strikes and even demanded proof. Soon cynics joined the brigade. Congress party contested the strikes and argued that such strikes were conducted during their regime. But they didn't announce them. Enthusiastic RTI activists soon sought the details of previous operations if any. To their surprise there were none.

Reluctant to release any video as proof government simply quashed opposition's doubts and took immense pride in the strikes carried across the border. Despite pressure from opposition, government refused to share any proof of strikes. With elections around the corner, as a tough message to neighbouring Pakistan and token of its commitment to national security, BJP declared this operation as its achievement like the Indian Congress which revelled in the success of 1971 Bangladesh war. 

But yesterday both Republic and Times Now released eight-minute long video of the strikes, a day after Saifuddin Soz, Pro-Pakistani Congress leader who batted for independence of Kashmir released a book and termed the strikes as farzical (false). Adding weight to these allegations, disgruntled former BJP cabinet Minister Arun Shourie questioned the veracity of strikes. But after the video was out, instead of issuing an apology to Indian Army, Congress Party gave ugly-twist to the whole issue. It changed the narrative, launched a scathing attack on BJP party for using Indian Army's courage and valour for its political gains and levelled baseless allegations. It raised the issue of OROP, insufficient ammunition reserves, wearing equipment, GST on goods sold in Army canteen and several other issues. While it has smartly deflected topic, the vacuous arguments, baseless allegations reeks of sheer political opportunism. In his anxiety to prove Congress as holier than thou, Congress spokesperson Surjewala, exonerated the party of its decade long indecisiveness and corruption that irreversibly dented the defence preparedness of the forces. 

But how can Indians and defence personnel ever forget the blistering attack of Khoon ki dalali and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal despicable argument of seeking authentic proof of strike and similar disgusting remarks from other opposition heavy weights. These uncharitable rants and unpalatable remarks over strikes besides exposing the deep rifts within the Indian political dispensation devitalises the morale of Indian Army. While criticism and trading of charges are part and parcel of a vibrant multi-party democracy, issues of national security which are inviolable and these issues should be kept beyond the purview of pernicious political mudslinging. Clearly, the opposition blinded by pathetic hatred towards Modi is now plumbing new lows by trivialising issues of national security.

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Can BJP’s exit from PDP-alliance lay a new foundation for its Kashmir policy?

BJP General Secretary, Ram Madhav, the principal negotiator of PDP-BJP alliance in Jammu and Kashmir yesterday announced, “It has untenable for the BJP to continue in the alliance government in the state” triggering two immediate reactions. The decision which was welcomed by a vast majority as better late than never, was rued as a desperate attempt of BJP to foster its national ambitions by critics. With general elections, 11 months away, people drew parallels to time tested Indira’s tactic of creating a war like situation to win elections. Against these deliberations, the unmissable fact remains that security situation in Kashmir has steadily deteriorated.

Suspension of operations by Indian Army during the month-long Ramzan has tipped the balance in favour of terrorists.  Much against the wishes of security personnel, the PDP leader Mehbooba garnering support from the regional political parties and Congress, prevailed on the central leadership to give in to the peace initiative of unilateral ceasefire during Ramzan and Amarnath Yatra. Apprehensive of losing support of the dominant separatist forces, from the beginning, Mehbooba pandered to them in the valley and strongly rejected muscular approach. She constantly batted for bilateral talks and restoration of trade ties with Pakistan. Despite reservations from security officials who opined that ceasefire might be conceived as “weakness” referencing the Non-Initiation of Combat Operations (NICO), announced by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2000 which led to a massive attack on Srinagar airport. But central government, meekly accepted Mehbooba’s plea for creating a conducive atmosphere in the valley. Interestingly, while centre has conceded Mehbooba’s demand, Laskhar-E-Toiba, Hizbul Mujahideen and Jaish-E-Mohammed rejected ceasefire and pledged to step up operations. Essentially, Mehabooba tied down hands of Indian Security personnel by extracting a pledge of condoning operations.

For three long years, despite incorrigible ideological differences, BJP continued to be in alliance with the dominant partner PDP to be part of the state government to reset the Kashmir issue. But the last straw in the form of cold-blooded murder of editor of Rising Kashmir, Shujaat Bhukhari, a peacenik, who supported track-II diplomacy and brutal killing of army personnel, Aurangzeb, prompted BJP to pull the plug from the alliance. Aurangzeb, a rifleman who was abducted from Pulwama on Thursday was part of Major Rohit Shukla’s team that neutralised Hizbul Mujahadeen terrorist Samir Tiger. Terrorists intercepted the private vehicle, in which Aurangzeb was travelling home for Eid and killed him. His bullet ridden body has created a massive uproar. In his emotional appeal Hanief, father of Aurangzeb, ex-army personnel questioned why Pakistani flags are waved in valley. His message of “I give PM Modi 72 hours to avenge my son’s death or else we are ready to take revenge on our own. Kashmir is ours. We must not let Kashmir burn. Instead we must eliminate the goons who are destroying the valley” went viral. Similarly, killing of journalist in broad day in the high security area of Srinagar, has created fear in civilians. Aside, these two incidents a day before Eid, terrorists inflicted major losses to Indian Army by indiscriminately attacking security personnel and hurling grenades. Over three dozen people which includes army personnel were killed during the month long unilateral ceasefire. Pakistan violated the LoC at will and over 1,00,000 people in the bordering villages were displaced. Twice during the Ramzan ceasefire, Pakistan DGMO pledged to uphold 2003 ceasefire agreement. But Pakistan reneged its assurance leading to death of BSF personnel. Reports suggested that cessation of operations against terrorists gave them time to regroup and consolidate their position triggering the joining of over 40 Kashmiri youth  in militant ranks.

Reiterating its commitment to root out terrorism from the valley, the day after Eid, on Sunday, government announced end of ceasefire operations. After reports of alleged coercion of police force and security lapse began to surface, central government held talks with NSA, Ajit Doval following which BJP Chief Amit Shah, after meeting with leaders from Kashmir formally decided to walk out PDP alliance. To utter surprise of political pundits who predicted that PDP would leave the alliance, forcing BJP ministers to resign, though late, BJP smartly pulled out the plug and forced Mehbooba to tender resignation. The PDP which admitted that it was unaware of BJP’s sudden decision was left to lick its wounds. Politicians across the board termed it as a betrayal and blamed BJP for the current situation. Though the fall of an incompatible coalition was imminent, the sudden turn of events and BJP’s checkmate startled PDP.

In 2017, after a gap of 15 years, Indian Army has launched an offensive, revived- Cordon and Search Operations (CASO)s following the killing of Ummer Fayaz in Shopian by terrorists. Involving 4000 personnel, Army intensified its retaliation in South Kashmir and the terrorist fatalities touched all time high by May. Pro-separatist and pro-Pakistani Mehbooba’s demand of ceasefire has axed Indian Army’s combat operations which has made significant gains.

The Ramzan ceasefire not only miserably failed in generating conciliatory approach in separatists but also pilfered the significant gains made by Indian Army against terrorists. Consequently, BJP which is at helm of affairs both at centre and state had to bear the heat. Moreover, India’s soft approach towards Pakistan-sponsored terrorism at behest of Mehbooba, gave room for China to brook about a trilateral dialogue between India-Pakistan and China under the aegis of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation).

In the 2014, Jammu and Kashmir assembly threw a fractured mandate with PDP bagging maximum seats and BJP emerged as the second largest party. Seizing the opportunity, despite ideological differences, BJP came forward to form a government with PDP. Defending its decision, BJP conceded that it is open to form a coalition government with PDP to uphold democratic process. It maintained that it intends to honour electoral mandate bestowed by two regions of Kashmir-Jammu and Ladakh. From the beginning, people predicted that it would an incompatible alliance with political parties terming it as "Himalayan Blunder". Notwithstanding these criticisms, BJP entered an alliance with PDP after torturous two-month negotiations forging an "Agenda of alliance". In the process, BJP gave up its demands of abolition of article 370 and abandonment on article 35A that allows state government to decide who are permanent residents paving way for eventual Kashmir’s integration with country. In return, BJP had a big slap on face with Mufti Mohammed on his swearing-in ceremony in March 2015, thanking Pakistan for the smooth conduct of elections and seeking release of hard core separatist, Masrat Alam. The shaky alliance suffered a massive jolt with the death of Mufti Mohammed in January 2016. After three-months of hard bargaining, Mehbooba agreed to be Chief Minister reluctantly. Soon, crisis erupted in the Valley with killing of Burhan Wani in July during which Pakistan pumped money to orchestrate protests that lasted for three months severely crippling the economic activity of the region. In response to treacherous Uri attack, government launched surgical strikes, in September, which boosted morale of security personnel and elevated BJP’s image. Baring a brief respite during the demonetisation, relentless terror attacks began to torment the valley.

Unabated ceasefire violations and infiltrations which registered whopping increase demanded a hard-line approach. PDP’s inherent soft-separatist approach severally constrained BJP’s Zero tolerance towards terrorism.  Further, PDP’s amnesty policy towards stone pelters, belittling heroic acts of Major Leetul Gogoi and Major Aditya and several other issues elicited doubts about BJP’s hard-line approach. Mehbooba’s overt Pro-Pakistani stance undermining India’s interest and BJP’s meek submission under perceived coalition compulsion sent mixed signals. BJP's flexible approach as opposed to its hard stance towards terrorism has dented its image among the two regions of the state, Jammu and Ladakh. Further BJP’s unfulfilled promise or mere tokenism towards Kashmiri Pandits irked the Hindu minority. On the other hand, even extremism and jihad continue to escalate. As a junior partner in the coalition BJP’s promises remained as mere lip homage. People from Indic religions are growing restless with reports of 800 times increase in Wahabbi mosques.

Clearly, both the parties, with different vote banks had pinned hopes on their leaders to deliver. Mehabooba who courts hard line Islamists posed impediments for the central government in adopting a muscular approach. Overt appeasement of separatists has clearly emboldened terrorists who began to wreak havoc in the valley. Instinctively, with terrorism reaching a tipping point, BJP walked out the coalition citing growing terror and discrimination towards Jammu and Ladakh regions.

After the cessation of unilateral ceasefire, Indian Army has gunned down three JeM terrorists. With the fall of doomed alliance and imposition of government’s rule army will have a free hand now. Currently NC, is batting for early elections. But taking stock of the ground situation, BJP has recommended governor’s rule. Elections around the corner, Pakistan has increased firing along the international border. In the past four years, Modi government extended a hand of friendship to Pakistan, invited Islamabad for swearing-in ceremony and Modi made an impromptu visit to Lahore. But Pakistan reciprocated by escalating terror attacks. In a vain effort to restore peace and harmony in the valley, BJP entered alliance with a pro-separatist party, PDP. By now Modi government, should realise that appeasement of a pernicious enemy and a pathological India hater is futile. India must fight Pakistan from position of strength to find a plausible solution for seven-decade long Kashmir issue.

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Modi lays foundation for a stable maritime order with Indonesia

Indonesia, the largest archipelago, comprising of over 17,000 islands, straddling both Indian and Pacific Ocean, busy in nation building hardly evinced great interest in formulating a long term maritime policy till 2014. China’s contentious maritime forays, its relentless reclamation of geographical features in South China Sea (SCS), aggressive territorial contestations with fictitious nine-dash line and inauguration of Maritime Silk Route (MSR) prompted ASEAN countries to buttress their maritime autonomy. In response to Dragon’s aggressive assertions, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, unveiled a maritime policy, Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) at East Asia Summit, Nay Pyi Daw in 2014. GMF, a balancer to OBOR (One Belt One Road) besides enhancing the interconnectivity between islands envisions to protect maritime resources, strengthen maritime security, turning Indonesia into a formidable regional maritime power.

Days ahead of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to India, the visiting Indonesian delegation headed by coordinating minister for Maritime Affairs, Luhut Pandjaitan, prepared ground for strong bilateral maritime cooperation between two countries. Reiterating Indonesian resolve to bolster maritime diplomacy, he announced Jakarta is granting India, economic and military access to strategic Sabang port in Aceh province. Responding to Indonesian outreach, highlighting maritime closeness, Prime Minister Modi was supposed to travel to Sabang port by ship to inaugurate a hospital and port development facilities. But the plans were dropped due to poor weather. Sabang also known as Weh Island, located at northern tip of Sumatra, 80 nautical miles away from Andaman Islands is less than 500 km from strategic choke point, Malacca Strait through which 40% of India’s trade passes. Sabang, a group of islands having rudimentary port facilities is capable of hosting submarines with its water reaching a depth of 40 mts. With Sabang joining India’s illustrious list of ports with granted military access, Indian Coast line will now extend form Seychelles to Indonesia.

Earlier in 2016, on Widodo’s state visit to India, both countries agreed to enhance maritime cooperation and laid ground for deepening of ties. Subsequently, India and Indonesia held joint naval exercises in 2017.  Indeed, in the joint statement released in 2016, both leaders took cognisance of burgeoning Chinese posturing the region and stressed on the need for resolving the disputes peacefully in accordance to universally accepted principles of international law like UNCLOS. Though both countries are not party to the disputes, China’s reluctance to abide by rules-based order, its penetrative expansionism coupled with waning American influence as security provider in the region has prompted India and Indonesia, closet maritime neighbours to resurrect neglected ties.

Complementing the vision of GMF, Prime Minister Modi who is diligently buttressing Indian maritime presence, embarked on a two-day visit on May 29^th to Indonesia boosting India’s Act East Policy. India and Indonesia share long standing cultural and trade relations of two millennia old. Historical evidences indicate that Indian traders set foot on Indonesia in 1^st Century and subsequently, Hinduism and Buddhism travelled to Indonesia from shores of India and thrived there. Indonesia finds a mention in Ramayana referred to as Yadawadwipa. Significant chunk of population in Bali and Sulawesi island even now follow Hindu culture. Bordudur and Parambanan temples gloriously reflect the Hindu-Buddhist influences that exist in Archipelago. With the advent of Arabian travellers to Indonesia in 9^th century, Islam became the most popular religion by 13^th century. Interestingly, while Indonesia is majorly a Muslim country, it jealously guarded Indic influences rooted in Ramayana and Mahabharata.  Showcasing the strong civilizational connect between the two countries, both Prime Ministers participated, and inaugurated Kite Exhibition themed on Ramayana and Mahabharata at Jakarta’s national monument. Indonesia indeed, had Bhagvan Ganesh, who is considered God of education on its currency earlier. It being holy month of Ramzan, both leaders paid visit to Istiqlal Mosque, national Mosque of Indonesia and Arjuna Vijaya Chariot Statue.

India and Indonesia which had similar colonial history, post-independence goals of sovereignty, economic development, self-sufficiency maintained cordial relations in the modern times. The legendary political camaraderie of Jawaharlal Nehru and Sukarno laid the foundation for the Non-Aligned Movement and the Asia-Africa Bandung conference of 1955, which extended vocal support to African national movement. While these leaders dreamed of a maritime cooperation in Indian Ocean, it hasn’t turned into a reality. President Sukarno graced India’s first Republic Day celebrations and both countries signed friendship treaty in 1951. In 1958, New Delhi and Jakarta signed an agreement for training and attachment of Naval officers. In 1974, countries signed a maritime boundary agreement demarcating Nicobar and Sumatra islands. After a period of lull, in bilateral ties, upon drastic recalibration of Indian foreign policy in 1990s and launch of Look East Policy, India opened doors for extensive engagement with ASEAN countries. Indonesian participation in the multilateral biennial MILAN exercise since 1995 marked a significant renewal of India’s maritime contacts with Jakarta. Both countries began to conduct coordinated naval patrolling (CORPAT) in Andaman Sea since 2002. By 2005, both countries established strategic partnership and charted a Vision 2025 statement in 2011. Now, Modi’s Act East Policy with a renewed focus of rebuilding ties with ASEAN has broadened the paradigm of maritime cooperation.

Upgrading bilateral ties to Comprehensive strategic Partnership, both countries signed “Shared Vision on Maritime Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific between India and Indonesia”. The document first with any ASEAN country, attested growing significance of the term Indo-Pacific instead of Asia-Pacific in geopolitical narrative and underscored similar perspectives of both nations towards evolving stable regional maritime order. It outlined importance of combined maritime region of both countries with huge coastlines and vast exclusive economic zone that has immense potentialities for global maritime trade and commerce. It called for adherence to 1982 UN Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS) and 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in South East Asia (TAC).

In a direct reference to China’s refusal to abide by international rules and its opaque global connectivity initiative that has ensnared nations into a debt-trap, the vision document reiterated the importance of “free, open, transparent, rules-based, peaceful, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region, where sovereignty, territorial integrity, international law and in particular UNCLOS, freedom of navigation and overflight, sustainable development and an open, free, fair and mutually beneficial trade and investment system are respected”. It also stressed on importance of maritime safety, security for sustainable economic growth and development in the Indo-Pacific region. Recognising the importance of blue economy, both countries agreed to deepen convergences and complementarities under India’s SAGAR (Security for Growth for all in the region) and Indonesia’s GMF.

Like India, pluralistic society of Indonesia is facing threats of Islamic radicalisation. A fortnight back, Indonesia was rocked by a wave of Church bombings that killed 13 people and left several injured on Ramzan eve. As against majoritarian belief of Ramzan as period of charity and reflection, radical extremists consider attacks committed during the month as holy. Investigations confirmed that perpetrators were former IS associates and recent returnees from Syria. Indonesia, like India which calls for Zero-tolerance on terror acts, appealed for enhanced cooperation in counter terrorism and sharing of intelligence. Both leaders called for expeditious finalization of Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT). To eradicate radicalism and promote pluralism both countries are going to organise interfaith dialogue starting with Indonesia in October 2018. Leaders agreed on working towards disruption of terror networks, fraudulent finance conduits, and cross-border movement of terrorists.

Under the new comprehensive strategic partnership, leaders called for exploring the potentialities of deepening cooperation in defence, including joint defence manufacturing, training of cadets, trade, commerce, investments, pharmaceutical manufacture, space, science, technology.  Both countries signed 15 MoU’s in above mentioned fields. In a massive fillip to strengthening people to people contact and tourism, Letters of Intent are signed on Sister Province between Bali and Uttarakhand and commenced World Heritage Twinning Program of Candi Prambanan and Taj Mahal.

Indonesia is India’s largest trade partner in ASEAN. India is second largest buyer of Palm oil and Coal from Indonesia. Both India and Indonesia are now fastest growing economies and a greater economic cooperation between both countries would be highly beneficial. Bilateral trade volume as of 2016-17 is $17 billion and efforts are on to double bilateral trade by 2025. In a big boost to trade and tourism, countries are planning to enhance connectivity between Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Provinces in Sumatra. Modi in his address to Indian Diaspora announced 30-day free visa for Indonesians and highlighted the style of functioning of his government as “corruption-free, citizen centric, development friendly”.

While much anticipated, plausible trilateral maritime cooperation between India, Indonesia and Vietnam, another ASEAN country vocal about Chinese expansion is not mooted, leaders welcomed the first trilateral senior officials strategic dialogue between India-Indonesia and Australia in November 2018. Hailing this idea, Professor Medcalf said, “This development shows that India and Indonesia are beginning to creatively use their geography to position themselves at the core of the new regional structures that Australia can link with, that Australia can play into”. Coming together of like-minded democracies and middle power regions definitely offers an alternative to Chinese hegemony and America’s retraction from global platform.

Indonesia like other ASEAN countries is wary of China’s militarisation of maritime domain.  Though Indonesia is not part of China’s SCS dispute, the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of its Natuna Islands overlaps with the Nine-dash line. Asserting its legal claims over the region, Indonesia in July 2017 renamed the waters northeast of Natuna Islands as North Natuna Sea. Though this moved irked China, Indonesia softly balanced its relations by inking infrastructure development projects. Since 2016 trespassing of Chinese ships into Indonesian EEZ have become more frequent. Indonesian Navy has even arrested some of the trawlers and beefed up patrolling in the region. As a message to China, Widodo travelled to the military base at Ranai on Nutuna Islands. Given, China’ s history of violating international laws, Indonesia began reaching out to countries like Japan, India and the US. Like the ASEAN countries, Indonesia started realising the strategic benefits of forging closer ties with India. To counter aggressive China, Indonesia has now turned to India to revamp long ignored maritime ties.  This newfound resurgence among resident nations of Indian Ocean Region, according to C. Raja Mohan, Strategist, will eventually pave way for “an extraordinary power shift in Asia”. Clearly, Modi on his first state visit to Indonesia laid a firm foundation for a new maritime order amidst “great power contestations” in Asia.

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