Is deepening Maldivian crisis Doklam II in making?

Ever since the removal of first democratically elected President Nasheed in 2012, at gun point rule of law has steadily deteriorated in the Indian Ocean Archipelago. The condition has slumped from bad to worse ever since. President Yameen who assumed charge in 2013, openly flirted with Islamists inflicting a death blow to the syncretic culture of the island. With the rapid spread of the Wahhabi culture, Maldives has now the highest number of Islamists fighters in Syria and Iraq on per capita basis making it a fertile ground for radical militia. Besides, the growing concerns religious of extremism, Maldives is now ensconced in Dragon’s fold. The quick spate of developments in the past month have been a cause of concern for India. Yameen refused to comply the Supreme Court decision of freeing political prisoners and restoring the membership of twelve defected parliamentarians. He nullified Supreme Court judgement, jailed two of five Supreme judges, the former Maldivian President Abdul Gayoom, his son-in-law, chief judicial administrator, shuttered Majilis (parliament) and imposed emergency for 15 days. Defying repeated appeals of the West and India, Yameen not only asserted his decision but chose to extend to emergency by 30 days.

During the emergency, Maldivian government sent special envoys to “friendly countries” which included Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and China to apprise them of the situation. India was not included. Maldives government later clarified that dates didn’t suit New Delhi. In response to President Nasheed’s call for help to India, Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterating principles of non-interference said, “the situation in Maldives is its internal affair. It should be properly resolved through dialogue and consultation by relevant parties”. This indirect warning to India and open endorsement of violation of democratic principles emboldened Yameen. Wary of the brewing Maldivian crisis and Yameen’s ham-handed approach, Indian ambassador to Maldives Akhilesh Mishra met Maldivian foreign secretary, Ahmed Sareer twice. Sareer assured that his government will end the emergency as scheduled on Feb 20^th once the “judicial deadlock” is resolved. Hours before the expiry of emergency, Yameen convened extraordinary meeting of Majilis boycotted by Opposition members. As against 43 MPs needed to pass the decree  38 ruling members accepted the decree and forwarded it to National Security Committee for approval.

Defying India’s warning, upon committee’s approval, Yameen extended emergency. Having received an aid amount of $160 million from Saudi Arabia during emergency, Yameen issued a cryptic message to India against any military intervention. During the intervening time, China having sermonizing non-interference in domestic affairs of countries dispatched Surface-Active Group (SAG) of three ships which entered Eastern Indian Ocean region through the Sunda Straits. China’s frenetic activity in the Indian Ocean region barely six months after the Doklam standoff signaled India of a Doklam-II. The tact of stepping of military aggression on the maritime front is yet another indication that China might in future, turn seas into frontiers of war. Besides, the timing of PLAN’s appearance in Indian Ocean suggested that China might intercede in the event of Indian military intervention in Maldives. Referring to this Chinese stratagem as “Gray Zone Coercion” strategists elucidated that China indulges in coercion to deter adversary without firing a shot. They argued China earlier challenged US and Japan similarly in three domains-maritime, cyber and space.

Buoyed by Chinese support Yameen defiantly extended emergency. India expressed dismay for suspending the functioning of democratic institutions and lamented it is likely to delay returning to normalcy. Meanwhile, Maldivian opposition reported that China is planning to set up an observatory with plausible military capabilities and provisions for submarine base, as a token of Sino-Maldivian bonhomie. The base will come up at Makunudhoo, western most atoll in the north along the major shipping route. Protocol for establishment of observatory was signed during Yameen’s visit to Beijing in December 2017 along with the free trade agreement. Makunudhoo is close to India’s south & South west coast and northern sea line of communication-passing through India’s Minicoy Island and Maldives Northern most atoll. Reports confirmed that this observatory will be like the one set up by China in SCS. This development will pose new security challenges since Maldives is 700km from Lakshadweep islands and 1200km from Indian mainland. To gain larger foothold in the Indian Ocean, China has already conceived the Pearls of String and this new addition will further bolster its maritime strategic interests.

In absence of any internal checks, Yameen has embarked on a full throttle authoritarianism. Two days back, Maldives police arrested four opposition leaders for protesting against Yameen.  Similarly, a group of four international lawyers who have arrived in Maldives to study impact of emergency were detained and deported. Ironically, Maldivian government extended open invitation to LAWASIA, on Feb 7^th to assess the situation of Maldives under emergency. Upon delegation’s arrival, Maldives denied visa. Delegation included President of Bar Association of India, Prashant Kumar. Yesterday, Health minister, Dunya Maumoon, niece of Abdul Gayoom resigned under pressure.

Straining the Indo-Maldivian relations further, Male has turned down India’s invite to participate in the biennial joint naval exercise Milan. Maldives has been regularly participating in the event since 1995. Assuaging India, Maldives envoy told India and Maldives have a long history of excellent defence and military cooperation but couldn’t participate due to the state of emergency in the country. Maldives snub comes at a time when its navy cadets began training with Indian Navy this month. Around the same time, Global Times, official mouth piece of China disapproved Milan and stated, “India is provoking China, which will not benefit the development of Sino-Indian relations”. Towing China’s line, Yameen is now audaciously crossing the redlines.

While Maldives is cozying up in Chinese embrace, Japan raised an alarm and called its bluff. Japan which surveillances Yellow sea, spotted a tanker flying Maldivian flag named Xin Yuan 18 along with four other ships carrying supplies to North Korea violating UNSC sanctions. Maldives immediately denied Japanese foreign ministry statement and condemned the usage of the its national flag for illegal transactions. But Wion independently verified Maldives claims and found them to be false. They reported that Xin Yuan is registered in Maldives. Losing no time, President Nasheed clarified on twitter, “It’s concerning but unsurprising to learn President Yameen is again breaking UN sanctions. He’s getting Maldives flagged ships to transfer cargo to North Korean Ships on the high seas. In the 1990’s President Yameen did the same with the Burmese junta”. This incident is raising serious doubts about Sino-Maldivian relations and the kind of leverage Beijing has on Male. Yameen has already earned wrath of international community for his iron-fisted stranglehold over the island. Now, by brazenly contravening UN sanctions imposed on North Korea Maldives is complicit of breaking global consensus. Of course, it doesn’t need a rocket scientist to say on whose behest Maldives has ventured to high seas. With 70% of total debt owed to China and being part of Belt Road Initiative, Maldives has become a quasi-protectorate state of China, incapable of defying its orders. China which is an all-weather ally of two rogue nations-Pakistan and North Korea and now Maldives in the process of becoming one. This can’t be a propitious scenario for India.

Aside, the infrastructure projects and offers of loan, China convincingly tried to pull the island into its fold by playing the “Islamic Card”. China Observer Mohan Malik elaborated-“to secure naval bases, Chinese leaders and PLA generals visiting Maldives have stressed that the Islamic island nation, much like Pakistan and Bangladesh, should be in China’s camp because China has always had close, special ties with the Islamic world”.

India’s strategic interests and national security are irretrievably linked to stability of the archipelago. India has been favorite destination of Maldivians for education and tourism and any military action can irreversibly damage India’s image. But curiously, smaller neighboring countries in the sub-continent are constantly playing Chinese card to have a way with India. Some strategists contend that if India fails to prevail upon an irresponsible country in its sphere of influence, its credibility as security provider of the region will be lost. If India fails to intervene, it might risk losing allies in Maldives that beseeched Delhi to intervene. Eventually India’s tall promises of reshaping the region and the coveted neighborhood first policy will be hallow. Having dealt the Doklam standoff efficiently, Modi doctrine offered new hope and experts are keenly waiting for such a stratagem against Maldives. Amidst this diplomatic dilemma, India is seriously contemplating few options. India has decided to support Indonesia’s candidature to UNSC as a non-member as opposed to Maldives. Delhi has even suggested EU to impose “targeted measures” against Maldives. Alternatively, India should build consensus with like-minded nations for curtailing undemocratic practices of ruthless despots. Deleterious combination of authoritarianism and radical Islam have proved to be surest recipe for disaster so far. With Indian Ocean’s paradisiacal islands engulfed by these twin alignment, India’s backyard is surely heading towards more chaos….

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