Putin’s enviable fourth term win

Vladimir Putin is reelected as President for the fourth time in the polls conducted on Sunday. Despite being labelled an “autocrat” by the West, the popularity of Putin among Russians stands undiminished. In an election with a voter turnout of 68%, Putin obtained 77% of the votes. Unparalleled people’s support vouches for their trust in Putin’s leadership who is considered as an embodiment of Russian unity and determination. Eighteen years into power, Putin slowly evolved as the supreme commander of Russia, controlling all fronts. The current Presidential contest involved seven other candidates who barely managed to put up any fight. Putin’s nearest rival, Communist Party leader Pavel Grundinin obtained 12% votes, ultra nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky finished with 6% votes and the TV presenter Ksenia Sobchak registered 1.5% votes and others had less than single percentage point of votes. Ahead of elections, Putin’s fiercest rival Alexei Navalny, who was believed to a potential electoral rival was debarred from running elections. Navalny, an, anti-corruption crusader was arrested and jailed for carrying out an unapproved protest. Reflecting on election results, opposition questioned its legitimacy and alleged widespread ballot stuffing, coercion and forced voting. Regardless of the charges, elections observers by and large ruled that elections are conducted in transparent but controlled environment. The whopping majority of Putin in his fourth term has put all doubts about his domination to rest. He has been eloquently bettering his performance in terms of percentage of vote gain. His winning margins in previous elections were 65, 71, 52   76% vote share respectively.

By winning recent elections for the unprecedented fourth time, Putin will stay in power till 2024. A landslide victory for Putin for the fourth time exemplified his unassailable popularity and unwillingness of Russians to elect any other leader. This can portend well for Putin’s aspirations of continuing to lead Russia beyond 2024. But his invincibility in the elections, has raised doubts of Chinese kind of abolition of Presidential term limits in Russia as well. Since Russian constitution forbids more than two consecutive Presidential terms, opposition hinted at a possible constitutional amendment. But Russian experts offered two different perspectives about Putin’s future course of action. While the West out rightly declared that Putin might mull becoming president for life, ahead of elections, insiders opined that “Putin doesn’t want to be remembered for changing constitution”. If he wants to remain President, he might do it “more elegantly” than China. Putin might transfer power to someone who is very loyal to him, the way he did in 2008.  Putin elected to power in 2000 served for two terms till 2008. Abiding the constitutionally imposed limit on Presidentship, he installed Dmitri Medvedev as President in 2008 and remained as Prime Minister. But returned to power in 2012.  Having tested this power transition exercise to be rewarding Putin might prefer transferring of power by 2024 to reclaim it back by fighting elections again in 2030.  Putin is now the longest serving President since Joseph Stalin. Hence colloquially, Russians no longer call him President any more, but a leader or Vozd, a title conferred on Stalin. Though Putin rubbished any thoughts of contesting elections in 2030, with electorate clearly not looking for any modernization or change, Putin can continue to be in power interminably. Why the West still prefers to label Putin as despotic dictator, for Russian he has been a cult figure whose sterling efforts in resurrecting Russian pride are hailed.

In the past 18 years, Putin tightened his grip on governance and smartly overpowered a disunited opposition. Though he was liberal initially steadily he imposes curbs on freedom, increased government control over economy and businesses. Despite his over bearing approach, people strongly rally behind Putin because of his confrontational approach towards the West and his unflinching determination to reclaim lost glory of Soviet Union.

Putin, who was KGB agent posted at East Germany steadily climbed up to highest positions of power. Having witnessed the fall of Berlin wall, as lieutenant Colonel which marked the beginning of fall of Soviet Union, he was deeply affected by the humiliation suffered by collapse of Soviet Union.  Soon, Putin moved to Russia and became deputy mayor of St.Petersburg by 1996. After the collapse of the Union in 1990, Boris Yeltsin introduced economic reforms that brought some stability and facilitated Russia’s integration with international community. While the Russian economy was in doldrums, NATO continued to expand, and the reunified Germany joined the NATO. Later US managed to draw all other Warsaw pact states (Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania) into its ambit.  Despite Russia’s repeated warning, the West continued to push its frontiers East wards. Though Russians felt provoked, the financial crisis of 1998 hit them hard and reforms ended reversing all gains. Around the same time, US informed Russia of its intentions to bomb, to protect Muslim population in Kosovo. Yeltsin strongly opposed the move, but US went ahead.  Russia felt threatened and betrayed. Russia had strong historical and ideological connect with Serbia, a Slavic orthodox country. US led NATO led bombing of Serbia exacerbated, Russian mistrust towards the West. To handle this precarious situation, Yeltsin appointed Putin as Prime Minister in 1999. Putin instead of taking refuge in any ideology, invoked nationalism, constantly reminded people of Russia’s superpower status.

When Putin took over as Prime Minister, Russian troops having suffered humiliating defeat at the hands of Chechnya in 1996 lost all hopes. He motivated and boosted their morale and waged second Chechen war restoring Moscow’s federal control over the territory. Russian victory catapulted Putin to presidential post in 2000. Ever since, Putin began to consolidate his position as a formidable leader through various military campaigns. Russian interventions in Georgia, Moldova, both part of erstwhile Soviet Union which declared independence after 1991 have been part of reasserting Russian glory. Annexation of former Russian vassal states was never part of Putin’s agenda. Hence, when former breakaway states, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine made elaborate plans to join the Western Alliance, Putin breached their territories making them unattractive to the West. NATO rejects countries with unresolved or internal conflicts and insufficient military defenses. Putin who vociferously rejected US-led world order advocated “multipolar world” and strived to guard Russian realm of influence from Western penetration. At a time when the West began to undermine Russian sphere of influence, Putin dented their aspirations from a position of weakness.

Under Putin, Russian economy showed signs of recovery by early 2000s as prices of oil and gas, main drivers of economy rose considerably. Though high oil prices rejuvenated the economy, past four years of economic sanctions slowed economic growth. Russian economy rate currently is 1.4% much lower than US and EU countries. Economic reforms boosting investment flow into Russia can effectively revamp the economic distress. With private firms mired in red tape business climate is dampened. Also, Putin indirectly controls a huge network of corrupt feudal lords, influential industrialists, and bankers that run the economy. If they pledge loyalty to Kremlin, Putin hardly intervenes in their business interests. To have a “personalized system of rule” he installed bureaucrats loyal to him as head of state companies.

Post Crimean annexation, even in the face of debilitating economic sanctions, Putin refused to backdown. Despite severe financial crunches, Putin refused to retreat from the global order. On the contrary, he ratcheted up cooperation with countries and rallied against the West. In the process, he cozied up to President Xi of China. At the height of Syrian war, Russia intervened in the war and cogently changed the dimensions of the conflict. Much ahead of UN meetings, Russia held Syrian peace talks at Asthana supported by Iran and Turkey, a NATO member positioning itself as strategic competitor for the West. Putin has thus been clearly outsmarting the west. Undaunted by weak economy and isolation, Putin refused to lie low and relentlessly confronted the West. Resurgence of nationalism and unyielding approach of Putin has earned him unwavering faith of instinctive Russians who feel threatened by United States.

Weeks before election, Putin casted US as an existential threat and rejuvenated Presidential campaign by unveiling an array of Russian nuclear-capable weapons which included Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM)s and intercontinental hypersonic missile. Proclaiming that American nuclear strategy has raised concerns in Russia, Putin added, “Our policy will never be based on exceptionalism, we just protect our own interests”.

Putin’s victory which has been along expected lines received muted congratulatory messages from across the world. Predictably so, the West is irrevocably miffed with Russia. Russia which is under scanner for its alleged involvement in American elections, France and Germany elections is now facing the ire of Britain for alleged poisoning of double-agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter at Salisbury on March 4^th.  While the doping charges and eventual banning of Russian athletes from Winter Olympics tarnished Russian image beyond repair, Crimean Annexation, Ukraine Conflict earned Moscow international economic sanctions. Russian involvement in Syria invited West’s wrath which touched a new crescendo with Moscow’s suspected use of Novichok, a nerve agent on former Russian spy. As a retaliatory measure, Britain has expelled 23 diplomats and warned of Royal boycott of upcoming FIFA cup at Russia. It even mulled seizing investments of Russian oligarchs in Britain. Last week US, Germany and France supported Britain’s charges of Russian attempts to assassinate a spy. Clearly, Russia’s relations with Europe have deteriorated from bad to worse. Besides, these open confrontations, Europe is worried of burgeoning Russian influence across EU countries. In what is termed as Putinism, Europe believes both the far-left and far-right parties which are making fresh grounds in elections are sympathetic towards Putin. Europe is largely divided over Putin’s re-election. Outside Europe leaders from China, Japan, Venezuela, and Iran have sent congratulatory message to Putin.

For India, Russia has been a longstanding defense partner, an ally and friend. But of late, Russia is favoring Pakistan to curry favor China and to find new market for its weapons. Recent SPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) reports shows that Russian arms exports have slumped. The burden of Syrian intervention, low oil demand, loss entailed due to cancellation of the fifth-generation fighter deal with India began to affect the financial inflows. Together, all these factors led to a conspicuous Russian drift towards Pakistan. At the Heart of Asia summit, 2017, Russian Ambassador Sergei Lavrov opined that India should be part of OBOR. He expressed displeasure over India’s renewed engagement with US, Japan, Australia under the quadrilateral arrangement. Clearly, changing geopolitical scenario are pulling India and Russia apart and divergences have been on a rise. Donald Trump’s initial rapprochement towards Russia brought some cheer to India but this short- lived optimism have made way for bitter acrimony with US-led Western world increasing locking horns with Russia over a range of issues. To make its global presence more relevant, Russia began allying with China complicating the whole tangle for India. Despite seeping divergences, India must continue to engage with Putin led Russia as nearly 70% of its defense acquisitions are of Russian origin. Notably, Russia has consistently supported India stance on Kashmir at UN. To iron-out any differences and lay ground for fruitful engagement, Indian defence minister is traveling to Russia by the end of April. In tune with changing geopolitical realms, India must evolve a long term strategic plan to balance its relations with the West and Russia under “the invincible Putin”.

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Indo-French Maritime Partnership to counterbalance hegemonic China

China overarching presence in Europe, burgeoning investments, extensive collaborations with Balkans, increasing port capacities in the continent and the reinforced 16+1 arrangement is generating fears among European leaders, who until recently ignored Beijing’s lack of reciprocity in trade and investments. China’s hegemonic maritime aspirations began to touch raw nerve of European countries. Intriguingly as West passively witnessed China’s ruthless defiance of ruling of Hague tribunal, undeterred Beijing aggressively embarked on aggressive maritime expansion. Wary of Beijing undermining Freedom of navigation, at Shanghai Dialogue in 2016, French Defense Minister warned the nations of China’s coercive strategies. Cautioning about China’s hegemonic maritime aspirations of China in the South China Sea (SCS) he stated, “there is a major risk in ignoring or underestimating how destabilizing that (China’s) behavior can be”. Ever since, France had a guarded approach towards China. China’s near complete assertion over SCS and inauguration of first foreign base at Djibouti is compelling India to leverage its strategic partnership for maritime security.

In 2017, upon President Emmanuel Macron’s electoral success, Prime Minister Modi flew down to Paris from Russia to congratulate him and expressed keen interest in expanding strategic maritime engagement. Ever since, circumspect of growing volatility in SCS region, India and France carried out series of high-level delegation talks to strengthen maritime cooperation.

Like India, France an active maritime power in both Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean since 17^th and 18^th centuries, has been diligently observing Dragon’s strategic assertions. Unlike other Western countries, France has huge interests in Asia with sizeable chunk of French expatriates residing on several islands of Indo-Pacific islands. Further, with major Asian countries entering economic growth trajectory, there has been a steady increase in demand. European countries eager to seek their share in the growing trade and investment opportunities are looking forward to engaging Asian markets making the security of Indian Ocean a priority issue. To this end, France unequivocally reiterated the importance of Indian Ocean for maritime access to Asia in Defence White Paper of 2013 and described it relationship with India as “closest relationships outside NATO”. Indeed, unlike US, France had always strived to buttress maritime presence in Indian Ocean over Pacific Ocean.

India and France signed strategic partnership in 1998 and ever since unambiguously supported New Delhi’s interests. Post nuclear tests, when economic sanctions were imposed on India, France refrained from any such posturing and instead defended India’s right to self-defense. During the Cold war, India reluctantly engaged with the West, but France was an exception. It was first country to enter into nuclear agreement with India following waiver by IAEA (International Atomic Energy Arrangement). France later worked with US for bringing India into global nuclear order. France supported India’s permanent membership to UNSC and to the G-8 grouping. Defence cooperation has been hall mark of Indo-French relations that grew much stronger with the conclusion of sale of Rafale aircraft. French Companies like Dassault Aviation, Airbus Defense and Space, The Thales have an illustrious record of supplying defense supplies to India besides the Scorpene submarines (Project-75). Both countries were holding joint annual trilateral exercises since 1983 and the 16^th edition of Indo-French exercise Varuna is all set to begin on March 15^th. In 2015, countries have signed agreement on maritime intelligence information sharing and Whitewater shipping agreement. Strategists, in part, attribute strong Indo-French ties to India’s growing defence trade with France.

France has two permanent military bases in Abu Dhabi’s port of Mina Zayed and Djibouti, i.e., Persian Gulf and Gulf of Aden respectively. Besides France has operating air bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq. France has strategic assets in the Scattered Islands of Mozambique Channel. To defend its citizens, maritime assets and to surveillance the air routes to France, troops are stationed in the Indian Ocean’s Reunion and Mayotte islands. Thus far, France has focused on northern, South West Indian Ocean region but never bother about the interconnecting South Eastern Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal Region). France keen on having holistic military presence is designing new policies and evinced interest in multilateral cooperation to have a sway over Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

India always had close relations with France. Infusing more energy to the bilateral ties, both countries have signed the logistics agreement, similar to the LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) signed with US in 2016. LEMOA entitles both countries for reciprocal use of their bases for refueling, logistics support and supplies and facilitates authorized port visits of armed forces, joint exercises, joint training, assistance during humanitarian crisis and disasters relief. LEMOA thus extended India’s reach in the Indo-Pacific region. While negotiations leading to conclusion of LEMOA with US took over decade, India and France worked together for much lesser time to bring it to table for final ratification. On March 11^th, India and France signed “Agreement between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of Republic of France for the provision of reciprocal logistics support between their armed forces”. Both leaders welcomed, “Joint strategic vision of Indo-France Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region” and reiterated that this cooperation “will be crucial in order to maintain the safety of international sea lanes for unimpeded commerce and communication in accordance with international law,  for countering maritime terrorism and piracy, for building maritime domain awareness, for capacity building and for greater cooperation in regional/international fora in the region”. With this India’s ability to deploy resources in Western IOR will be immensely boosted. While Indo-US LEMOA agreement paved way for buttressing India’s reach in the Eastern IOR similar agreement with France will now consolidate India’s influence in Western IOR where India lacked partners to collaborate for the crucial anti-piracy operations.

For long India has been making efforts to enhance maritime posture along the Mozambique Channel where China made significant gains. India has considerable good will in the IOR countries- Mozambique, Kenya, Seychelles and Mauritius owing to huge Indian Diaspora presence and soft power. This agreement will cement India’s position in the Western IOR and reciprocally, France can now alleviate its position in the Eastern Indian Ocean region. Till now Indian Navy ships were getting refueled at the French bases against payment. Now transfer of funds will be more structured.

Though France is designated as middle-power, it has globally engaged, well-trained specialized army. Being a resident power of the region, strategist Iskander Rehman believes, “France is most Asian of European powers” and an extensive cooperation with France can bode well with India’s maritime desideratum.

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Ode to Timeless brilliance

Often phenomenal scientific advancements and pathbreaking discoveries with a tremendous potential fail to make indelible impression on common man. Plagued by absence of meticulous minds that can translate wonders of science into simple words, innumerable contributions of ingenious intellects remain obscure. Endowed with a unique combination of brilliance and humor, Cosmologist and inveterate science popularizer, Stephen Hawking set a new precedent in scientific outreach. Born on the 300^th birth anniversary of Galileo, Hawking breathed last on International Pi Day and Albert Einstein’s birthday, seems a cosmic connivance to pay homage to science’s brightest star. Demystifying the complex theories of Universe, Hawking, educated people about science and emerged as a new phenomenon and a celebrity scientist. Besides shaping the modern-day Cosmology with his scientific insights, he inspired millions of people. Trumping the debilitating illness which confined him to wheel chair for over five decades, he exuded rare brilliance and relentlessly engaged in scientific pursuits and popularization of science.

Unshaken by the disability inflicted by a rare disease, ALS (Amylotrophic Lateral Sclerosis) or Lou Gehrig’s syndrome, that gradually cripples brain-muscle coordination at a young age of 21, he made seminal contributions to the field of Cosmology. Defying doctors’ prognosis of survival for few years, he lived for the next fifty years. His first breakthrough, Hawking’s radiation in 1970 that postulated black holes emit radiations but will lose energy and then disappear created ripples in scientific field. This was against Quantum mechanics, which propounded that energy/information can’t be lost. This black hole paradox has created a vertical split among Astro-Physicists. Hawking believed black hole may have head of hairs while the other group backed the no-hair model based on Einstein’s theory of relativity. In 2015, revising his own calculations, Hawking proposed the concept of soft hair on black holes indicating that information doesn’t disappear in blackhole but is stored at event horizon. Not all physicists were convinced of this new description. But the crux of the issue is that he has been tirelessly working on the black hole paradox for over 45 years despite living in the shadow of death. ALS left him completely paralyzed reducing the bodily control to flexing of finger, movement of eyes but mental faculties were intact. He lost his voice muscles progressively and for the last three decade he has been communicating through an exclusive voice synthesizer.

Hawking’s absolute determination, indomitable will and single-minded approach to unravel mysteries of Universe have propelled him to make radical discoveries earning him a place in Royal Society at young age of 32. He became Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at Cambridge, a post previously held by Sir Isaac Newton, Charles Babbage, and Paul Dirac, one of the founding fathers of Quantum Mechanics when he was 37 years old. He revolutionized the field of Cosmology with dynamic ideas. In 1982 he showed that Quantum fluctuations or minute variations in distribution of matter seeded the formation of stars and planets. While Hawking’s seminal discoveries in Cosmology elevated him to towering heights in scientific field, his book, “A brief history of time” published in 1988 catapulted him to stardom and immense popularity. The book besides meticulously deciphering marvels of Universe quenched the spirit of enquiry of youngsters and science enthusiasts making it the most popular book in science. Over 10 million copies of the book were sold in past 20 years. It remained on The New York Times best seller list for unprecedented 237 weeks, making it to the Guinness Book of World records. Galvanized by the popularity of the book, Errol Morris made it into a documentary. Hawking authored 12 books in all, popularizing various aspects of Universe, made appearances in several TV shows- the Star Trek, The Simpsons and the Big Bang Theory. German composer, Rolf Riehm composed a 35-minute piece titled “Hawking” and held ode to his “ceaseless extension of limits”. In 2014, commemorating, his inspired living, James Marsh made Hawking’s biopic “The Theory of Everything”, an Academy award winner.

Hawking’s visibility as scientist is unparalleled and any pronouncement by him, makes it to the headlines. He believed that humanity should spread out into space but warned people of alien invasions and full development of artificial intelligence. He feared development of AI that equals or surpasses human intellect can spell doom for entire humanity. Being eternally optimistic, enthusiastic, and open to new collaborations, Hawking became part of Breakthrough Initiatives funded by Russian billionaire, Yuri Milner focused on space exploration and search for alien life.

Hawking won Albert Einstein Award, the Wolf Prize, the Copley Medal, and the Fundamental Physics Prize. In 2016, when Israeli physicist announced finding a convincing evidence for Hawking radiation, people expected Hawking to win a Nobel. But experts ruled that results were not conclusive, hence the Nobel Prize eluded him. Physicists are hopeful that study of black holes through gravitational waves might provide clinching evidence for Hawking’s black hole paradox. In his illustrious scientific stint, besides black holes, Hawking worked on nature of gravity and origin of Universe. He pointed that black holes are not black as they are made out to be.

Incidentally, some of his ideas about Universe its evolution, origin and more specifically Big Bang theory earned him wrath of religious leaders. Hawking openly dismissed the role of God as creator and comforts of religious beliefs. Similarly, he courted controversies for his anti-Semitic stance, strong support to BDS (Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions) of Israel, declaring women a complete mystery, oblique references to Monica Lewinsky during his lecture at White House.

Hawking was bold, courageous, and remained undaunted by controversies. He traveled across the globe, visited every continent including Antarctica, celebrated 60^th birthday in hot air balloon, crashed his wheelchair while speeding in Cambridge corridor, as a prelude for space travel on Virgin Galactic’s Space Ship two, Hawking took a ride in zero-gravity aircraft in 2007. Despite his physical constraints, his spirit wasn’t disabled, he lived life to the fullest. A contemporary incarnate of amazing will power and determination, Hawking made the planet richer with his knowledge. Though he physically left his body, his vivacious scientific spirit, will pervade eternal cosmos as a brightest star…

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President Macron’s visit infused new dynamism in Indo-French bilateral ties

French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in India on March 9^th on a four-day state visit, two years after his predecessor Francois Hollande graced as guest of honor for Republic Day Celebrations in 2016. France has the unique distinction of being the guest at Republic day for maximum of five times so far followed by Bhutan. India always had stable and steady relations with France over past seventy years. The Indo-French engagement has been truly multi-dimensional with the expanse of cooperation encompassing defence, strategic, maritime, economic, railways, smart cities, waste management, space, education, climate change, renewable energy, science and technology.

Macron’s visit to India comes at a time when both countries keen on promoting multipolar world and wary of burgeoning geopolitical volatility have expressed willingness to work with like-minded countries. This new strength of shared interests has infused new energy in the bilateral relations. Further the leaders of both countries Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Macron known for their dynamism and reformist attitude have certainly added momentum to the otherwise unostentatious relationship. Besides, these attributes, like India, France is now growing skeptical of Chinese expansionist spree under the ruse of contorted globalization and global connectivity. Indeed, President Macron, during his China visit openly questioned the dubiety of win-win paradigm of BRI (Belt Road Initiative). While France evinced interest in working with China over Africa’s security issues, it has its own apprehensions. Aggressive posturing of China in part, has unarguably driven France to seek deep strategic partnership with India. France, keen on securing its strategic interests in the deeply contested Indo-Pacific region is now looking forward to engaging with Asian partners. India on the other hand, keen on expanding its maritime presence is now eagerly securing multiple strategic engagements. Inking the maritime partnership agreement with France during Macron’s current visit had amply enhanced India’s strategic depth in Indian Ocean Region (IOR). In all, both countries signed 14 agreements and pledged to contribute towards climate change. France has been instrumental in supporting India’s membership to Wassenaar Agreement and Australian Group.

Defence Cooperation

No sooner India attained independence, it established diplomatic relations with France. Compelled by cross-border threats of war from Pakistan, instead of relying on UK for weapons, India chose France to import defense supplies in 1949. Despite procurement of weapons India remained largely indifferent to France for its colonial legacy. But the relations began to gain more strength after French completely withdrew from Asian countries. But after India’s bitter defeat at the hands of China in 1962, India continued to purchase more weapons from France which adopted relatively neutral stance as against US and UK whose defense links and foreign policy was inveterately linked. Soon it began to assist defence R&D through transfer of technology and arranged a tie up with European Missile Consortium, MBDA. After 1965 war, while US and UK imposed arms embargo on both India and Pakistan, France withdrew embargo in 1966 and started supplying spare parts. By 1980, India diversified defense procurements and reduce reliance on Soviet Union. Eventually, France became India’s major defense partner and began annual tri-services joint exercises in 1983- Exercise Shakti of Army, Varuna of Navy and Garuda of Air Force. In 1982, sale of US F-16s to Pakistan prompted India to place order for an advanced jet-fighter, Mirage 2000 with Dassault Aviation of France, which gave India an edge over Pakistan in the Kargil war of 1999. India became first user of Mirage jets when the first set arrived in 1985. By 1997, Ministry of Defence approved a plan for purchase of 24 submarines under Project 75. India and France established strategic partnership in 1998 and France unambiguously supported India’s nuclear war and refrained from imposing sanctions. By 2005, India signed $3 billion worth technology transfer deal for obtaining Scorpene class of French submarines. Accordingly, all the submarines are assembled at the Mazagon dock, Mumbai. Construction began in 2006 jointly with energy company DNS, The Thales and the first submarine INS Kalavari was commissioned into Indian Navy in December 2017.  During French President Jacques Chirac visit to India, both countries elevated the partnership signing cooperation agreements in civil nuclear, space and defence sectors.

In a bid to replenish depleting air fleet, India wanted to buy 126 fighters and by 2012, selected Rafale fighters of Dassault Aviation with a caveat for technology transfer. As per the agreement, 18 fighters will be purchased in fly away condition and the rest will be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautical Limited. But the deal was stalled over issues of production constraints in India. Prime Minister Modi, revived this deal and requested delivery of 36 jets off-shelf in the first ever government to government agreement. Finally, India clinched the deal worth $9.7 billion with France for 36 jets in 2016. During the current visit Macron expressed France’s interest in supplying 36 more jets but India maintained stoic silence. Both countries signed a logistics maritime agreement. India welcomed French investments under Make in India initiative and encouraged talks between defence institutions of both countries towards development of combat aircraft engine. Both countries condemned terrorism in all forms and manifestations and called for early adoption of Comprehensive Convention on Counter Terrorism (CCIT). Concerned by increasing spate of terror strikes by home-grown terrorists, countries have enhanced scope of cooperation in counter terrorism, cyber security and radicalization.

Civil Nuclear Cooperation

India and France signed the landmark civil nuclear agreement in 2008 on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Paris. By 2010, both countries inked a General Framework Agreement and Early Works Agreement between the NPCIL and Areva (now EDF) for construction of nuclear project at Jaitapur, Maharashtra. But progress in implementation of the project for long was obstructed by India’s Nuclear Liability. Underscoring the need for expediting Jaitapur for building six EPR nuclear reactors with a capacity of 9.6 GW, leaders of countries assured that project will commence by the end of 2018. Once installed it will be World’s largest nuclear plant. Reiterating commitment towards expediting the project, France has assured fuel supply and finances if needed.

Space Cooperation

India and France celebrated 50 years of space cooperation in 2015 which paved way for transfer of solid propulsion technologies, development of sounding rockets, Belier and centaure and establishment of Thumbha Equatorial Launch pad in Kerala. France helped India in setting up Sriharikota launch pad, liquid engine development and launching of satellites. In 1981, Ariane-1 rocket of France launched India’s first communication satellite and ever since number of India’s heaviest satellites are launched by Ariane rockets. Both countries signed a strategic partnership agreement in space in 1988. Since 1990, India and France jointly collaborated towards launch of Megha-Tropiques, climate satellite in 2011. Indo-French Joint Framework for exploration of space for peaceful purposes was signed in 2008. ISRO is now second partner of CNES (French Space Agency). CNES has even promised to provide cameras to Indian Space startup “Team Indus”. Modi and Macron unveiled bilateral “Joint Vision for Space cooperation” which is closer to realizing the Indo-French third satellite mission, TRISHNA. Further ISRO is all set to accommodate French Instrument on India’s OCEANSAT-3 satellite.

Education, Science and Technology

Keen on promoting the flow of more Indian students to France, President Macron held a townhall with students in Delhi. Currently, 2500 students pursue higher studies in France as against more that 250000 students from China. France wants to increase the number to 10,000 by 2020. Coinciding with Macron’s visit first Indo-French Knowledge Summit on research and higher education was conducted in Delhi on Mar 10^th and 11^th.  Several MoU were signed for mutual recognition of degrees. For the past 30 years, Indo-French Centre for Promotion of Advance Research (CEFIPRA) has been working towards skill development toward enhancing employability of youth. Both countries have tried to convene a committee towards increasing the scope of the center.

Smart Cities

India government has roped in France for its Smart City Development program which envisages to develop 1000 cities. France has currently adopted three Indian cities- Chandigarh, Nagpur and Puducherry. Satisfied by the progress of this program, India and France development Agency (ADF) signed a loan agreement worth $123 million in support Smart Cities Mission. Similarly, underscoring importance of mobility in modern living, both countries agreed for semi-upgrade of railways, establishment of permanent Indo-French Railway Forum. Marsellie is entering into a sister port arrangement with Mumbai. Various French companies are winning contracts in road construction projects, water supplies and waste management.

Further, to encourage temporary circular migration and return of skills to home country, India and France signed Mobility and Migration partnership agreement.

Economic Cooperation

Despite robust engagement with France at various levels, bilateral trade more or less remained same registering a marginal increase to $11 billion, nearly half of India’s trade with Germany and UK. France, the third largest economy in Europe is ninth biggest trade partner of India among EU countries. Defence supplies constitute bulk of India’s trade with France with business in other remaining stagnant. Countries are now aiming to reach $18.5 billion or Euro 15 billion by 2022. Around 300 French companies that have invested in India, most of them are large enterprises and the small and medium enterprises that form the bulk of French economy are completely absent. Realizing this lacuna, countries are now encouraging the investments by SMEs. To this end, India has launched Access to India Initiative to assist the investments by SMEs in manufacturing and other allied sectors.

Renewable Energy and International Solar Alliance

Ever since, he was chief minister of Gujarat, Modi has demonstrated a great interest towards harnessing the solar energy to meet energy requirement. Asia’s largest solar park at Charnaka Village in Gujarat constructed during Modi’s leadership exemplifies his commitment towards renewable energy and climate change. In 2015, accompanied by French President Francois Hollande, Prime Minister Modi along the sidelines of Paris Climate Summit, envisaged the idea of developing an International Solar Alliance (ISA) under the UN Charter, with all countries lying in between Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn. Spear-headed by Modi, the inter-governmental organization now aims to mobilize $1 trillion in funds for generation of 1 TW to meet requirements. ISA besides conforming to spirit of Paris Climate Agreement, is a determined effort to reach the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), 2030.  India and France co-chaired the first summit conference of ISA, held at New Delhi and represented by 23 heads of state. So far ISA has 62 signatories of which 30 countries have ratified the agreement. Tipped to be OPEC of India, Delhi Solar Agenda is undeniably India’s moment to lead the World towards renewable energy. India reached the target of 20 GW solar energy four years ahead of the target has pledged $1.4 billion in aid to 15 developing countries, (all African) from its Africa Development Fund aside $26 million towards ISA campus in Gurugram. France pledged $866 million tripling earlier statements of commitment and announced to make contribution close to $1.23 billion Euros.  Reiterating their support towards renewable energy, Modi and Macron inaugurated 75MW Solar Park at Mirzapur, Uttar Pradesh.

India and France share converging views on various global issues and notably apprehensions over China’s claims of peaceful rise and neo colonialism under the guise of global connectivity.  Instinctively, Macron’s visit came at a time, when reports of Russia extending support to Pakistan has been making news. C. Raja Mohan in his article titled “France: India’s New Russia” stated “As Russia reached out to Pakistan, that special position now belongs to France. For example, Paris has foregone the opportunity to sell major weapons systems to Pakistan and has focused on a strong defence partnership with India”. Besides by strengthening cooperation in various sectors, France have infused a strategic depth to the partnership. Moreover, the two democratic countries whose constitutions rooted in liberty and fraternity offers new possibilities for building a reliable partnership. With Pax Sinica becoming more imminent, India which can’t match the deep pockets and clout of hegemonic neighbor is actively seeking multiple strategic partnerships with like-minded countries. The shared concerns of security and stability of the Indo-Pacific region can be greatest binding factor for the Indo-French partnership. Above all, President Macron’s message to India at Rashtrapati Bhavan, “Our aim is to begin a new era in ties between two countries. For France, India is our priority and has always been. India has been France’s first ally in the region. It is the entry point for France in the region, and my aim is to make France the entry point for India to Europe” nearly summed up France’s renewed interests in revitalizing bilateral ties with India. Besides, ensuring prompt deliverance on various commitments, it is time to step up engagement. 

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Vietnamese President Visit boosts Indo-Vietnam relationship

It is long believed Vietnam can be to India what Pakistan is to China.  Barely 90 days after Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Puch’s trip to India as Chief Guest for Republic Day Parade, Vietnam President Tran Dai Quang, second in power hierarchy was is India on a three-day state visit on March 2^nd.  Quang’s visit marks 45 years of India’s diplomatic relations with Vietnam. Further, the quick succession of high-profile visits to India highlights the growing strategic ties between both countries. Amidst escalating volatility in the South China Sea, wary of national security, Vietnam has called on India to play an active role in the region.

With China buttressing Pearls of String doctrine and PLAN making frequent visits to Eastern Indian Ocean, India too is steadily bolstering engagement with Vietnam to checkmate China’s encirclement with a counter encirclement. Vietnam has been a key component of India’s Act East Policy. India and Vietnam’s strategic alignment is reinforced by shared mutual concerns of Chinese aggression and unresolved territorial disputes. China’s ever increasing military assertion in the SCS region and its conflicting claims over the Paracel and Spartly Islands with Vietnam has promoted it to look forward to India. Unlike other ASEAN countries, Vietnam is now the only country in the region that strongly resists Chinese aggression. To counter Chinese belligerence, Vietnam is now drawing closer to US. As a testimony to growing convergence in 2016, US lifted embargo on arms and marking a new beginning USS Carl Vinson is going to land at Danang to join Vietnam Navy’s in joint disaster rescue exercises. This marks first US aircraft to visit Vietnam since 1975. Besides, Vietnam is actively seeking friendly ties with Japan, to effectively resist China in the region.

Foundations for an exceptionally warm relation was laid down by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and President Ho Chi Minh. India established diplomatic ties with Vietnam in 1972 and conferred Most Favored Nation Status in 1975. Both sides signed bilateral trade agreement in 1978. By 1992, under the Look East policy, India strengthened ties and promoted trade relations with Vietnam and ever since bilateral trade began to steadily improve. India is now one of the top ten trading partners of Vietnam with bilateral trade volumes accounting for $7.62 billion. Vietnam is fourth largest trade partner of India in ASEAN. As of now, India has made investments to a tune of $1 billion in Vietnam. Like India, Vietnam is projected to have higher growth potential and has become favorite destination for investments. During the current visit, both sides agreed to increase bilateral trade to $15 billion by 2020. In 2003, India and Vietnam signed a declaration for creating an “arc of advantage and prosperity”. Reinvigorating ties with Vietnam, Prime Minister Modi in 2016 on his visit to Hanoi, elevated ties to Comprehensive Strategic partnership. India provided $100 million line of credit for purchase of patrol boats and $500 million Line of Credit for defence cooperation.

Defence cooperation has emerged as strong pillar of strategic partnership since inking of MoU in 2009. Indian ships frequently make port calls to Vietnam. Vietnam for the first time participated in the International Fleet Review-2016 at Visakhapatnam. Besides, both sides revved up cooperation through institutional mechanisms and high-level bilateral visits, annual security dialogues, military to military cooperation. India is offering training to Vietnam military in operating kilo-class submarines and Su-30 fighter jets. Aware of Vietnam’s interest in Brahmos Missiles, no sooner arms embargo was lifted, defense minister Manohar Parrikar flew to Vietnam to expedite sale. But as of now, both sides failed to reach an agreement. Recently, India and Vietnam jointly conducted military exercises for six weeks in Madhya Pradesh.

Aside commonality in strategic interests, China is highly averse to Indo-Vietnam joint commercial oil exploration in the regions claimed by Vietnam in SCS. Much to the consternation of China, on his current visit, President Quang welcomed Indian business “to expand oil and gas exploration and exploitation activities on land and in the continental shelf and in exclusive economic zone” and signed MoU for similar collaboration in oil exploration projects in third world countries. Both sides inked MoUs on economic and trade cooperation, agriculture and providing technical cooperation in the field of atomic energy for civilian purposes. Alongside, India and Vietnam have agreed to strengthen cooperation in maritime domain, anti-piracy, security of sea lanes, exchange of information on white water shipping and called for building consensus towards early conclusion of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT). To cement people to people relations, trade and economic ties both sides agreed to actively seek possibilities of extending the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway further to Vietnam through Cambodia and Lao PDR and establishment of direct shipping routes. Ramping up scientific cooperation, countries signed an agreement in 2016 for setting up satellite tracking and reception center in Ho Chi Minh city to monitor Indian satellite launches.

President Quang after receiving traditional guard of honor held talks with his counterpart President Ramnath Kovind, met Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj, Speaker of Loksabha Sumitra Mahajan and opposition leader Sonia Gandhi. Lauding India’s peaceful development, Quang in his speech called upon Delhi to assume a more pro-active role in the Indo-Pacific region. He said, “we are glad to note that in recent years India’s rise has been closely linked with the prosperity and affluence of Asia as a whole. India’s peaceful development has always worked as an important constructive factor to regional peace and stability. With her vast potential and great contributions, India surely deserves a greater role in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region and the World”. In a bid to intensify the historical and religious ties between countries, India has extended line of credit towards restoration and preservation of Hoa Lai Tower and Po Klong Garai Cham Towers. In 2016, Modi actively pursued the religious connect between the country and pushed for preservation of ancient monuments that symbolize thousands of years of friendship endured by both the countries. Subscribing to the intent of intensifying religious cooperation, President Quang landed in Bodh Gaya, Bihar before reaching New Delhi.

Affirming their firm support towards freedom of navigation and transparency in trade both countries, in a veiled reference to China, “reiterated the importance of achieving peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific region where sovereignty and international law, freedom of navigation and overflight, sustainable development and a free, fair and open trade investment system are respected”. They expressed complete faith in international ruling of 1982 United Nations Convention on the laws of the sea (UNCLOS), called for “implementation of international legal obligations in good faith, the maintenance of freedom of navigation and over-flight in SCS, full respect for diplomatic and legal processes, peaceful settlement of disputes without resorting to the threat or use of force, and in accordance with international law”. Further they called for effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC) in SCS and anticipated for an early conclusion of substantive code of conduct in the SCS. Further India pledged support to Vietnam for the non-permanent membership at UNSC and Vietnam has reiterated the same for India’s bid to UNSC.

Shared concerns of India and Vietnam have brought them together in recent times. With China rapidly militarizing reclaimed features in SCS, Vietnam is anticipating energetic support and participation of India. Though India enthusiastically revved up strategic and defence cooperation, it is yet to seal the purchase of much touted Brahmos missiles to Vietnam. India must quickly address Vietnam’s concerns to fortify relations with ASEAN countries at a time when China’s burgeoning aggression is looming large over the region.

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Space Wars no longer a figment of fiction

Humans always had deep-seated desire to explore, investigate and unravel mysteries of universe Space science aptly satiated this inherent inquisitiveness. Ever since the first rocket tests by Germans in 1942, nations realized the strategic significance of Space. Honing scientific skills and employing advanced technologies nations rallied to investigate unexplored vistas of space. Soon, cold war frenzied erstwhile super powers vied with each other sparking a new Space race to assert “Space superiority”. By sending first ever satellite Sputnik I into space in 1957, Soviet Union formally breached the elusive frontiers of the Space.

For long space operations were dominated by two or three major players. Soon nations were drawn into the phenomenon of space exploration. Recent reports indicate currently there are 1738 operational satellites in the orbit owned by private companies and governments of 93 countries. The operational satellites are basically of three kinds-low earth orbit, medium earth orbit and geostationary orbits. These artificial satellites are sent to space for various purposes like weather monitoring, navigation, communication etc. Satellites include space telescopes, space probes, space stations and space craft. Nowadays we rely on satellites for daily day to day activities like bank transactions, long distance calling or GPS applications. Military operations also depend on satellites for communication and monitoring the borders. Satellites have become integral to modern living.  As a result, the space environment is now more congested, contested, and competitive.

Though nations majorly launched satellites for peaceful purposes they harbored a wild ambition to equip themselves with technologies to destroy satellites. These dubious intentions eventually prompted nations to develop Anti-Satellite Weapons (A-SAT). Indeed, the desire to destroy satellite has been at the root of development of ballistic missile technology. In early 1960s Russia first tested “Hunter Kill” missile system to low orbits. At the height of the Cold war era both US and Russia began developing destructive weapons to dominate the space. Increased competition is space is reviving fears of war. This destructive technology has become point of intense interest among certain nations in the past decade bolstering fears of turning space into the fourth military arena.

A war in space can critically disable other satellites and can spell disaster for the humanity. Besides, hampering the crucial functions like navigation and communication, the debris generated in the aftermath will have collateral damage. Space debris of late has increased due to congestion also. In 2013, Russian BLITS Satellite was stuck in debris. Collision with debris changed satellite’s orbit, spin rate and eventually it stopped functioning.

Even potentially less chaotic attacks on satellites like simply nudging the orbit in space or jamming signals, hacking operational software, temporarily or permanently disabling sensors can render satellites unproductive and useless. Fiddling around any nation’s satellite system can bring it to heels. Realizing the need for curtailing the nefarious activities, countries back in 1967 ratified non-binding, Outer Space Treaty, under the aegis of the United Nations that prohibited placement of weapons of mass destruction in space. But this hasn’t deterred nations from using space for military activities and they continued to launch spy satellites (reconnaissance satellite deployed to monitor selected areas on earth- to determine enemy’s war-making capabilities).

In 1985, US F-15 launched a specially-designed space missile to bring down an aged satellite. Even Soviet Union followed America’s suit during Cold war era. More recently China used similar technology to destroy its own satellite in 2007 signaling its entry into space wars. As of now, four treaties were formulated- 1968 Rescue Agreement, 1972 Liability Convention, 1976 registration convention and 1984 Moon Agreement to regulate space activities. But none of these international treaties are in pace with latest space advancements and critically fall short in imposing curbs on the ambitious aspirations of the nations.

In mid-1970s, international community recognized the potential dangers of ASAT technology and its testing and promoted the superpowers US and Russia to negotiate a ban on ASAT. But the negotiations between the nations collapsed as bilateral ties deteriorated. Ever since, despite several multilateral efforts, countries continued to develop ASATs. In 2008 and 2014, China and Russia introduced two drafts-Treaty on the Prevention of the Placements of Weapons in Outer Space and the Threat or Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects. US opposed both proposals as they lacked verification mechanism to prevent development of ground-based ASAT weapons. In 2015 EU introduced a code of conduct setting norms to shape behavior in outer space. Though nations pledged commitment, code of conduct remains unclear and there are growing reports of testing of ASATs.

Till now countries have tested ASATs capable of reaching targets in Low Earth Orbits 160 to 2000km from the surface of earth. America having mastered these technologies is wary of its adversaries-Russia and China. While America has precise idea of Russian capabilities, lack of openness and secrecy makes China an unpredictable rival. In 2013, China launched new ASAT Dong Neng-2 against high earth orbit targets. Though the results of the test are not conclusive, recent reports indicate that both Russia and China have fast-tracked ASAT testing.

Like the cyberattacks which can bring economic activity to a grinding halt destruction of country’s satellite system is a threat to its security. For long, the US being leader in military weaponization dominated the space technologies and its extensive space infrastructure enhanced force projection. Its strategic space assets bolstered navigation abilities, intelligence collection, guided precision targeting, communication and issued early warning of several crucial activities. Satellite systems augmented America’s military capabilities during Operation Desert Storm and Desert Shield. Naturally, an attack on these orbital assets would critically impair America’s dominance. In a bid to preserve its supremacy, US is now investing heavily in a surveillance system for its space assets- Space Fence, which uses ground-based radar systems to detect any attacks. It is also developing Self-Awareness Space Situational Awareness System to pinpoint the source of the laser fired at the satellite. Alternatively, to reduce damage to its extensive network of huge satellite systems, US is now planning to replace the traditional, heavy, complex satellites with swarms of low-earth and sun-synchronous miniaturized satellites. Fortunately, as of now the final frontier is the battle field. Going by present trends space wars may not be a distant possibility.

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Is deepening Maldivian crisis Doklam II in making?

Ever since the removal of first democratically elected President Nasheed in 2012, at gun point rule of law has steadily deteriorated in the Indian Ocean Archipelago. The condition has slumped from bad to worse ever since. President Yameen who assumed charge in 2013, openly flirted with Islamists inflicting a death blow to the syncretic culture of the island. With the rapid spread of the Wahhabi culture, Maldives has now the highest number of Islamists fighters in Syria and Iraq on per capita basis making it a fertile ground for radical militia. Besides, the growing concerns religious of extremism, Maldives is now ensconced in Dragon’s fold. The quick spate of developments in the past month have been a cause of concern for India. Yameen refused to comply the Supreme Court decision of freeing political prisoners and restoring the membership of twelve defected parliamentarians. He nullified Supreme Court judgement, jailed two of five Supreme judges, the former Maldivian President Abdul Gayoom, his son-in-law, chief judicial administrator, shuttered Majilis (parliament) and imposed emergency for 15 days. Defying repeated appeals of the West and India, Yameen not only asserted his decision but chose to extend to emergency by 30 days.

During the emergency, Maldivian government sent special envoys to “friendly countries” which included Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and China to apprise them of the situation. India was not included. Maldives government later clarified that dates didn’t suit New Delhi. In response to President Nasheed’s call for help to India, Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterating principles of non-interference said, “the situation in Maldives is its internal affair. It should be properly resolved through dialogue and consultation by relevant parties”. This indirect warning to India and open endorsement of violation of democratic principles emboldened Yameen. Wary of the brewing Maldivian crisis and Yameen’s ham-handed approach, Indian ambassador to Maldives Akhilesh Mishra met Maldivian foreign secretary, Ahmed Sareer twice. Sareer assured that his government will end the emergency as scheduled on Feb 20^th once the “judicial deadlock” is resolved. Hours before the expiry of emergency, Yameen convened extraordinary meeting of Majilis boycotted by Opposition members. As against 43 MPs needed to pass the decree  38 ruling members accepted the decree and forwarded it to National Security Committee for approval.

Defying India’s warning, upon committee’s approval, Yameen extended emergency. Having received an aid amount of $160 million from Saudi Arabia during emergency, Yameen issued a cryptic message to India against any military intervention. During the intervening time, China having sermonizing non-interference in domestic affairs of countries dispatched Surface-Active Group (SAG) of three ships which entered Eastern Indian Ocean region through the Sunda Straits. China’s frenetic activity in the Indian Ocean region barely six months after the Doklam standoff signaled India of a Doklam-II. The tact of stepping of military aggression on the maritime front is yet another indication that China might in future, turn seas into frontiers of war. Besides, the timing of PLAN’s appearance in Indian Ocean suggested that China might intercede in the event of Indian military intervention in Maldives. Referring to this Chinese stratagem as “Gray Zone Coercion” strategists elucidated that China indulges in coercion to deter adversary without firing a shot. They argued China earlier challenged US and Japan similarly in three domains-maritime, cyber and space.

Buoyed by Chinese support Yameen defiantly extended emergency. India expressed dismay for suspending the functioning of democratic institutions and lamented it is likely to delay returning to normalcy. Meanwhile, Maldivian opposition reported that China is planning to set up an observatory with plausible military capabilities and provisions for submarine base, as a token of Sino-Maldivian bonhomie. The base will come up at Makunudhoo, western most atoll in the north along the major shipping route. Protocol for establishment of observatory was signed during Yameen’s visit to Beijing in December 2017 along with the free trade agreement. Makunudhoo is close to India’s south & South west coast and northern sea line of communication-passing through India’s Minicoy Island and Maldives Northern most atoll. Reports confirmed that this observatory will be like the one set up by China in SCS. This development will pose new security challenges since Maldives is 700km from Lakshadweep islands and 1200km from Indian mainland. To gain larger foothold in the Indian Ocean, China has already conceived the Pearls of String and this new addition will further bolster its maritime strategic interests.

In absence of any internal checks, Yameen has embarked on a full throttle authoritarianism. Two days back, Maldives police arrested four opposition leaders for protesting against Yameen.  Similarly, a group of four international lawyers who have arrived in Maldives to study impact of emergency were detained and deported. Ironically, Maldivian government extended open invitation to LAWASIA, on Feb 7^th to assess the situation of Maldives under emergency. Upon delegation’s arrival, Maldives denied visa. Delegation included President of Bar Association of India, Prashant Kumar. Yesterday, Health minister, Dunya Maumoon, niece of Abdul Gayoom resigned under pressure.

Straining the Indo-Maldivian relations further, Male has turned down India’s invite to participate in the biennial joint naval exercise Milan. Maldives has been regularly participating in the event since 1995. Assuaging India, Maldives envoy told India and Maldives have a long history of excellent defence and military cooperation but couldn’t participate due to the state of emergency in the country. Maldives snub comes at a time when its navy cadets began training with Indian Navy this month. Around the same time, Global Times, official mouth piece of China disapproved Milan and stated, “India is provoking China, which will not benefit the development of Sino-Indian relations”. Towing China’s line, Yameen is now audaciously crossing the redlines.

While Maldives is cozying up in Chinese embrace, Japan raised an alarm and called its bluff. Japan which surveillances Yellow sea, spotted a tanker flying Maldivian flag named Xin Yuan 18 along with four other ships carrying supplies to North Korea violating UNSC sanctions. Maldives immediately denied Japanese foreign ministry statement and condemned the usage of the its national flag for illegal transactions. But Wion independently verified Maldives claims and found them to be false. They reported that Xin Yuan is registered in Maldives. Losing no time, President Nasheed clarified on twitter, “It’s concerning but unsurprising to learn President Yameen is again breaking UN sanctions. He’s getting Maldives flagged ships to transfer cargo to North Korean Ships on the high seas. In the 1990’s President Yameen did the same with the Burmese junta”. This incident is raising serious doubts about Sino-Maldivian relations and the kind of leverage Beijing has on Male. Yameen has already earned wrath of international community for his iron-fisted stranglehold over the island. Now, by brazenly contravening UN sanctions imposed on North Korea Maldives is complicit of breaking global consensus. Of course, it doesn’t need a rocket scientist to say on whose behest Maldives has ventured to high seas. With 70% of total debt owed to China and being part of Belt Road Initiative, Maldives has become a quasi-protectorate state of China, incapable of defying its orders. China which is an all-weather ally of two rogue nations-Pakistan and North Korea and now Maldives in the process of becoming one. This can’t be a propitious scenario for India.

Aside, the infrastructure projects and offers of loan, China convincingly tried to pull the island into its fold by playing the “Islamic Card”. China Observer Mohan Malik elaborated-“to secure naval bases, Chinese leaders and PLA generals visiting Maldives have stressed that the Islamic island nation, much like Pakistan and Bangladesh, should be in China’s camp because China has always had close, special ties with the Islamic world”.

India’s strategic interests and national security are irretrievably linked to stability of the archipelago. India has been favorite destination of Maldivians for education and tourism and any military action can irreversibly damage India’s image. But curiously, smaller neighboring countries in the sub-continent are constantly playing Chinese card to have a way with India. Some strategists contend that if India fails to prevail upon an irresponsible country in its sphere of influence, its credibility as security provider of the region will be lost. If India fails to intervene, it might risk losing allies in Maldives that beseeched Delhi to intervene. Eventually India’s tall promises of reshaping the region and the coveted neighborhood first policy will be hallow. Having dealt the Doklam standoff efficiently, Modi doctrine offered new hope and experts are keenly waiting for such a stratagem against Maldives. Amidst this diplomatic dilemma, India is seriously contemplating few options. India has decided to support Indonesia’s candidature to UNSC as a non-member as opposed to Maldives. Delhi has even suggested EU to impose “targeted measures” against Maldives. Alternatively, India should build consensus with like-minded nations for curtailing undemocratic practices of ruthless despots. Deleterious combination of authoritarianism and radical Islam have proved to be surest recipe for disaster so far. With Indian Ocean’s paradisiacal islands engulfed by these twin alignment, India’s backyard is surely heading towards more chaos….

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