In yet another test to India’s
pragmatic foreign policy of carefully balancing ties, New Delhi hosted
President Hassan Rouhani of Iran who was reciprocating Modi’s visit to Iran in
2016. Modi’s ceremonial visit to Tehran in 2016 culminated in inking the
trilateral transit agreement between India, Iran, and Afghanistan. Rouhani who
was on a three day visit to India on Feb 15th landed in Hyderabad.
Invoking the centuries old “civilizational
ties’’, became the first foreign leader to address the Jummah congregation
at the 400-year-old Mecca Masjid built by the Qutub Shahi rulers. Rouhani chose
the Mecca Masjid over the Jummah Masjid since it is the only mosque where Shias
and Sunnis offer prayers together. Moreover, Hyderabad has sizeable Shia
population. At a time, when sectarian conflict on the Middle East is undergoing
a major churn, Rouhani wanted to seek the support of Indian Muslims, who
constitute the second largest Muslim population in the World. After the Friday
prayers, carrying message of unity Rouhani expounded the need for overcoming
sectarian violence. He remarked “If part
of the Muslim society in the Islamic World is suffering from a problem, it is
because Islam’s teachings and advice are not acted upon and that real Islam is
not dominant”. He lashed out at America and urged Muslims to come together
against Israeli regime and other enemies. Rouhani’s trip has come at a
precarious time, when conflict between Israel and the Shia-militants backed by
Iran has escalated. Days ahead of Rouhani’s visit, Israel shot down an Iranian
drone that entered its airspace from Syrian border. In retaliation, Iranian
forces operating from Syria downed Israeli F-16 aircraft worsening the tensions
in the Middle East. This latest abrasion between the archrivals Iran and Israel
post Trump’s decision of declaring Jerusalem as capital of Israel has
intensified into bitter rivalry.
Iran’s Bouncy Trajectory
Interestingly, Rouhani’s state
visit to India comes a month after India extended rousing reception to Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who pledged to add new momentum to
Indo-Israel partnership. Of late, Iran is treading along a bouncy trajectory
and going through amorphous times. Iran’s relations with US have moved South
after Trump took over as the President. He not only imposed a temporary travel
ban on Iranians to immigrate to US, but hardened his stance towards Iran,
calling it a sponsor of terror and “rogue
regime”. He called for revocation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) negotiated by P 5+1 on Iran’s nuclear program and refused to certify
Iran Nuclear Review Agreement Review Act (Inara)- complies with the historic
nuclear deal. While IAEA (International
Atomic Energy Agency) authorized Iran’s compliance, Trump prevailed that Iran
should terminate its ballistic missile program and Uranium enrichment program
immediately and in absence of the above he refused to waive the sanctions of
the deal which concludes in 2030. Though he stopped short of pulling out from
the JCPOA, he imposed unilateral sanctions against Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Cops (IRGC). Trump’s decertification threats widened chasm between both US and
Iran.
Economic sanctions from 2007 to
2016 has crippled Iranian economy, widened income disparities and middle class
was hardly hit. High-inflation, unemployment and massive corruption triggered
protests across the country. Huge domestic uproar resulted in large scale protests
in Iran during the first week of January when the Rial has plunged to a new low
of 48,000 per a dollar. Soon there were protests against Iranian conservatism
by women who challenged the mandatory law of wearing hijab or veil in public.
Ever since the Iranian revolution in 1979, the country was taken over the
hardline Islamists now headed by Ali Khamenei (after the death of father of
Iranian revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khamenei) the supreme commander-in-chief.
He appoints the six of 12 members of the Council of Guardians, that oversees
the functioning of Parliament and determines which candidates can run for the
public office of the Presidency. While the President is democratically elected,
he is a nominal head. In the face of rising protests for social liberation,
Rouhani who is considered a moderate face promised to hold referendum on
legitimacy of present political order. Rouhani is now delicately balancing the
domestic unrest that is opposing conservatism, protesting economic downturn,
and trying to avert the prospect of another round of economic sanctions.
Against these lows, Iran expanded its regional influence through the Syrian
civil war gains, propped up the Hezbollah (in Lebanon) and is believed to be
aiding the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Iran’s new expansionism and regional
presence has become inimical to Sunni-giant Saudi Arabia. This intense
hegemonic rivalry is igniting a fresh conundrum in the West Asia has turned it
into seat of intense diplomatic and geopolitical activity.
Indo-Iran relations
Against its burgeoning regional influence,
Iran starring at the prospect of international isolation is keen on renewing
its partnership with India. Indo-Iranian friendship began in 1950 with
countries signing the friendship treaty that called for perpetual peace and friendship. But with time both countries moved
to opposite axis of cold war era. Iran under the leadership of Muhammed Reja
Shah allied with US, and together with Pakistan, Iraq, UK, Turkey became part
of CENTO (Central Treaty Organization), while India gravitated towards Soviet
Union. Notwithstanding the friendship treaty, during 1965 and 71 wars, Iran helped
Pakistan. In the meanwhile, Iran’s ties with the US soared, hardline Islamists
seized control of Iranian political regime, steered it away from democracy and
ushered the nation into the Iranian revolution in 1979. India feared the
radical Islamist ideology might catch up with Indian Muslims and lend support
to self-determination of Kashmir. At the
same time, Iran was upset with India for failing to condemn Soviet Union’s invasion
of Afghanistan in public. Despite the differences, India always tried to
maintain good relations with Iran due to its energy dependency. Also, India and
Iran always undermined unipolarity. While both had different relations with the
US, they didn’t approve of US’s role in Middle East. Till 1977, Prime Ministers
Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Morarji Desai travelled to Iran. Roiled in
incessant wars with Iraq, Iran hardly engaged with India.
Post Iranian revolution, P V
Narasimha Rao’s first visit to Tehran in 1993 and subsequent Iranian President
Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s reciprocal visit to Delhi in 1995 gave bilateral
ties a fresh lease for life. In March 1994, Iran blocked a consensus against
India on Kashmir at United Nations as mark of solidarity. India and Iran
maintained closest strategic convergence through the Northern Alliance against
the Taliban in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. In 2001 Prime Minister Atal
Bihari Vajpayee’s signed Tehran Declaration with President Khatami that addressed
energy concerns, finalization of agreement with Iran for LNG, development of
gas pipeline, scientific and technical cooperation, and commitment to develop
north-south corridor. India always felt Iran is critically important in
providing access and with Central Asia. On the contrary, having suffered
isolation with the election of hardliner Ahmadinejad, Iran always sought
relations with India which had varied relations with different countries. India
and Iran stepped up engagement, enjoyed good maritime relations which included
joint military exercises, high-level military visits, cooperation in naval
technology and infrastructure.
In recognition of Iran’s valued
relationship, India invited President Khatami as guest of honor for the
Republic Day Parade in 2003 and both sides signed the New Delhi Declaration
deepening the engagement to include military cooperation, expansion of
non-hydrocarbon trade and development of Chabahar (Chabahar-Fahranj-Bahm rail
link). Around the same period, India tried to revive its ties with US and was
negotiating a Civil Nuclear Agreement. Bowing to US concerns of Iran’s nuclear
program, India voted against Iran at IAEA in 2005 and 2006-initially for imposition
of sanctions against Iran for non-compliance and even complied that Iran’s case
be referred to UNSC straining the bilateral ties. India later defended its
actions saying it lobbied with the West to help Iran in in providing diplomatic
solutions. As a testimony to its continued friendship during the sanctions
regime, Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee paid visit to Iran in 2007. In
fact, India continued to import oil from Iran and maintain trade ties when Iran
was globally isolated.
Challenging Indo-Iranian Ties
Indo-Iranian ties have always been transactional
and besides energy, connectivity has been mainstay of bilateral ties. To
circumvent Pakistan’s blockade, India keenly pursued Chabahar development
project to foster trade ties with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. To
this end, India, Iran, and Russia signed the North-South Transport Corridor
(INSTC), a multi-modal network in 2000 to reduce the cost and time taken for
shipment from Mumbai to St Petersburg through Iran’s Chabahar port. But the
project missed several deadlines and even after 17 years of the initiation, the
project isn’t close to completion. After the trilateral transit agreement,
India expedited Chabahar port development and invested $85 million towards the
first phase of Shahid Beheshti Port which was inaugurated by Rouhani in
December last year. India has indeed, made its first wheat shipment to
Afghanistan signaling the importance of this port and pushing for the operationalization
of INSTC. Despite India’s fervent
interest, Iran announced that is open to a deal with China and Pakistan on
Chabahar development. Iran has always been a finicky nation to deal with. Aside
difficulties in economic negotiation, it poses political challenges. Ali
Khamenei rallied Muslim community to support Kashmiri brothers when India
reached out to Saudi Arabia and Israel. Besides, Chabahar, issue of awarding of
contracts for development of Farzad B gas field in Persian Gulf discovered by Oil
and Natural Gas Corporation in 2002 is mired in squabbling. India initially
hesitated to invest due to the sanction regime on Iran. No sooner, sanctions
wwere removed India renewed negotiations, but Iran changed goal posts, invited
six other investors and delayed the deal. Despite the proclaimed historical
links, engagement with Iran is replete of several challenges.
Bilateral Engagement
Stepping up engagement, India and
Iran signed nine
agreements which included avoidance of double taxation, exemption of
visa for diplomatic passport holders, extradition treaty, cooperation in
traditional medicine systems, establishment of expert committee on trade
remedial measures, agriculture, medicine and health and postal cooperation.
Iran has agreed to lease operational control of a part of Chabahar port for 18
months to India. India committed $500 million towards multi-modal network of
Chabahar port. But the project development is tardy due to Western Banks
reluctance to support Iranian projects. Interestingly, despite Trump’s
hostility towards Iranian administration, US didn’t object to India using Chabahar
in the interest of stabilizing Afghanistan. To this end, Tillerson
clarified that US “wouldn’t interfere in the legitimate business interests” of its
allies and friends. Aside connectivity, India is keen on Chabahar because of
its strategic location and proximity to Gwadar port of Pakistan leased by
China. Iran has promised to fast-track
the pace of negotiations of Farzad B gas field. Another key aspect of Rouhani’s
agenda other than connectivity, energy cooperation was seeking Indian
investments. To promote Indian investments in Iran, New Delhi has allowed
Indian businesses to invest in Indian rupees. So far, permission to invest in
Indian rupees is made to Nepal and Bhutan. India made this major departure for
Iran, since it is barred from dealing in dollars and euros due to nuclear
sanctions. Both countries have pledged to step up cooperation to counter
extremism, terrorism, and drug trafficking in Afghanistan to restore stability.
While Iran is also troubled by restive Afghanistan, its stance towards Kabul
has been significantly different from India. India welcomes US role, while Iran
is keen on working with China and Russia.
In his special address delivered at
ORF (Observers Research Foundation), New Delhi, Rouhani supported India’s bid
to UNSC but raised doubts on UN’s influence and relevance. He criticized US
interference in Syria and reiterated Iran’s commitment to abide by 2015 nuclear
deal. Having elevated Indo-Israeli relations to a new level of strategic
partnership, Rouhani’s visit is seen as a balancing act by India. Underlining India’s
“strategic autonomy”, New Delhi maintained
historical engagement with Iran despite being closely allied with the US and
Israel. In a bid to bolster India’s strategic security, economic ties and
energy interests Modi reached out to Sunni major Saudi Arabia and its allies
and Shiite Iran with equal poise and pragmatism, adding yet another dimension
to Modi Doctrine which supremely
believes in championing India’s strategic interests. But clearly dealing with a
theocratic Islamic Republic of Iran is an onerous task as the hardcore Iranian
clerics calls all the shots and Rouhani is not in command of Iran’s politics.
Regardless of the effusive handshakes, India should be prepared for unexpected
twists and turns.
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