Xi Jinping’s indefinite rule can be bad news for India

On Sunday, Chinese Communist party (CCP) made a stunning announcement of scrapping the two-term limit for President and Vice-President confounding the fears of many Chinese observers. President Xi who was elected unopposed for the second-term will now continue to hold the position beyond 2023. While the constitutional amendment squashing the limits on tenure was quietly passed at a plenum in January, the announcement was made two days back. This move will be officially ratified at National People Congress (NPC) meet on March 5^th. The alarming power grab of Xi will establish him as the potential leader for a life. This move besides conferring unfettered power will make Xi supreme leader of the party, President China for life and head of the Central Military Commission. With this new elevation Xi is now the Commander-in-chief of the armed forces bestowing him with supreme authority over PLA (Peoples Liberation Army). Hailing the move, the Global Times quoted, country needs stability and by ensuring a strong leadership during the crucial period between 2020 and 2035, China can transform into a modern and prosperous state. But on the contrary, in absence of internal checks, Xi’s heavy-handed rule might intensify the conflicts and push the country into anarchy. Moreover, centralization of power in single individual will hark back country into earliest periods of dictatorship.

The two-term limit was introduced against the background of President Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” and “cultural revolution” that claimed 45 million lives and wreaked havoc in the country.  Steering country away from the shambles of absolute dictatorship, Mao’s successor, President Deng Xiaoping built institutional mechanism to curb totalitarianism by introducing a two-term limit in the constitution since he believed “over-concentration of power is arbitrary rule by individuals at the expense of collective leadership”. This paradigm effectively prevented dictatorship, regularized political leadership, ensured peaceful power succession and carefully avoided the common pitfalls of other communist countries. Peaceful and orderly transfer of power led to “authoritarian resilience”, a term coined and researched by Andrew J Nathan. He explained power transfer in most authoritarian communist regimes has always been a moment of crisis often marred by purging, factionalism, violence and often chaos. Careful power succession displayed by the third and fourth generation Chinese regimes-Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao displayed attributes of institutionalization, unusual in history of authoritarianism. This political stability in turn ushered China into an era of phenomenal economic growth. The term limit has blocked Xi’s ambition to rule China indefinitely.

In Chinese politics, presidential position has no real authority as opposed to the role as head of Communist party and Chief of military. It is only after the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests; all the three leaderships were fused into one. By toppling the weak institutional framework instituted by Deng, Xi has grasped unrestrained power. Unfortunately, despite the devastation endured by country under dictatorial Mao, China refused to build strong institutionalization that had distinct norms. By smashing the norms of collective leadership, Xi is now all set to drive China towards unparalleled authoritarianism akin to other communist and fascist regimes.

Last year October, when Xi failed to reveal his successor foreign policy wonks hinted at Xi’s bigger plans for consolidation of power. These worst fears became true when the 19^th CCP unanimously passed a resolution to enshrine Xi’s ideology in the constitution along side Mao Zedong and his successor Deng whose political thoughts were included much later. Now officially “Xi’s thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics” has become the authentic signature policy of the country.  

Chinese experts indicate that Xi regularly emphasized the need to maintain control over constitutional interpretation and enforcement. With unfettered control over every aspect governance now he may not hesitate to nullify the vital aspects of Chinese Constitution that advocates freedom of speech, freedom of religion and privacy rendering it useless. Cognizant of Xi’s severe crackdown on corruption as governor of Shanghai, the West welcomed his presidency and imagined him to bring massive changes in economic and political landscape of China. Much against their expectations of turning China into a liberal, rather democratic and transparent country, he pushed country into a realm of unstinted authoritarianism. He reduced opposition to a bundle by launching massive anti-corruption drives, imposed censors on media and steadily extended them to internet, silenced democratic voices, jailed hundreds of human rights activists and literally turned the country into a surveillance state. Having taken control of domestic security, he crushed Uighur movement with iron-hand, imposed brutal restrictions on their religious practices and by employing crucial facial recognition technology began tracking the moments of people. He trampled Tibetan dissidents and diluted their resistance by altering the demographics of Tibetan Autonomous Region. Reneging on the promise of “one country two systems”, Xi is taking drastic steps to curtail the democratic values. The tiny island which has once been a beacon of liberalism is now struggling to retain its autonomy. 

With China’s growth rate slumping from the two-digits, to sustain domestic confidence, Xi unlike his predecessors abandoned low key foreign policy and strongly infused the idea of nationalism. Giving a strident direction to China’s global aspirations, Xi began to build robust relations with different countries and launched key infrastructure initiative projects under the BRI (Belt Road Initiative) and extended China’s global influence.

Elimination of term-limits will embolden Xi who would unabashedly pursue a muscular foreign policy to boost China’s expansive presence in both Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region (IOR).  China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which violates India’s sovereignty will receive a major boost. Pakistan which has long turned into China’s vassal state will increasingly move into Chinese Orbit. Having snapped ties with US, Pakistan, largely dependent on China for largesse with strengthen its ties with Beijing. Both countries which have come together on anti-India agenda might intensify attacks on India. India should now brace for more border incursions, skirmishes and numerous demarches on Arunachal Pradesh. China will now aggressively jostle with India for a dominant position in South Asia. To keep India on toes, China will intensify containment policy and will seek stronger ties with all its neighbors. Sri Lanka grappling under China’s debt trap settle the issue by formally leasing Hambantota port for 99 years. By installing a pro-Communist regime in Nepal, Xi has penetrated India’s Himalayan neighbor. To veer Afghanistan away from India, besides offering aid, China is in talks with Kabul to establish a military base in its hostile northern terrain. Besides, it outsmarted India and constituted Quadrilateral Coordination Group of Afghanistan for restoring peace. China recently sold cheap submarines and promised $24 billion in investment to Bangladesh. Buoyed by China’s support, President Yameen who has imposed emergency in Maldives is now refusing to adopt a moderate approach. China hell-bent on wooing Bhutan has scheduled border talks with Bhutan and is making herculean efforts to strike a deal before elections this year. With Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Maldives set to go for polls this year, India has to close monitor the China’s moves.

Beijing’s aggressive land reclamation in the South China Sea has irrevocably altered the dynamics of the region. Intimidated by China’s economic clout, South East Asian countries are increasingly looking forward for India’s dynamic leadership. China is steadily expanding its presence among the Eastern European countries under the 16+1 arrangement and controls one-tenth of European container terminal capacity. France and Germany wary of China’s growing influence in Balkans have raised alarm. With US retrenching from the global arena, China is aggressively positioning itself as an alternative. Ironically, while Europe is worried about China’s aggressive rise, America obsessed with Russia’s interference in Western democracies is spending time and energy in frivolous investigations, flogging a dead horse. Meanwhile, China is inundating American markets and steadily extending its trade surplus over years. Interestingly, while strategists expressed concern over the new developments, White House Press secretary responded, “I believe that’s a decision for China to make about what’s best for their country.” In October following Xi’s elevation after the 19^th Congress, President Trump congratulated him on “extraordinary elevation” and later in an interview, he called Xi, “the King of China”. Niceties apart, America seems to have grossly underestimated formidable rise of China and its arrival on global platform. Now, China’s economic model with authoritarian politics is now emerging as an alternative to capitalist democracy. In its ambitious bid for a global role, China has ruthlessly subscribed to a disguised form of imperialism. The proposed amendment in constitution will augur well for China’s expansionist agenda. World must now gear up for a China’s audacious power projection with Xi at the helm of affairs.

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Justin Trudeau’s infamous India visit

Ever since his touchdown in New Delhi on 17^th February for eight-day long visit, the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been making headlines for various reasons. Devoid of warm hugs, twitter welcomes, and personal reception extended to several other World leaders by Indian Prime Minister at the airport, the visit was in news for negative reasons.  The ostensible cool reception referred to as “Royal Snub” by media was markedly visible. While the Trudeau’s family made every effort to impress the hosts with traditional namaste as they descended the flight, just a low-key welcome awaited them. Union Minister of State for Agriculture, Gajendra Shekhawat received them. Interestingly, Trudeaus were meted out similar reception on their next stopover Taj Mahal with district officials accompanying them at Agra. Though Indian officials maintained that the normal diplomatic protocol was followed an allure of displeasure was palpable.

To begin with, unlike other state visits which puts business on high pedestal, Trudeau’s itinerary perplexed foreign affairs wonks with just half a day allocated for official engagements in Delhi in the eight-day long visit. The trip which was planned by Indo-Canadian Minister Navdeep Bains and implemented by Canadian High Commissioner Nadir Patel, extended by a day, riddled by inconsistencies sent confusing signals. Ideally, Trudeau should have focused on finishing his official engagements at New Delhi. Receiving the ceremonial guard of honor bestowed on foreign dignitaries at the onset of Indian tour would have set the tone for the visit. The high optics of two prime ministers warmly exchanging pleasantries could have subdued the disenchantment towards the Canadian foreign of pandering to separatists. Instead the cultural gallivanting diplomacy replaced it. Trudeaus visited Taj Mahal, elephant conservation centre at Mathura, Harmandir Sahib Amritsar, Sabarmati Ashram & Akshardham Temple Ahmedabad, Bollywood night at Mumbai, Jama Masjid, Delhi and even tried their hand at cricket. Aside, the upbeat cultural diplomacy, Trudeau met business leaders at Mumbai and had 90-minutes roundtable with Woman business leaders. He managed to obtain $1billion investments from Indian firms. The ineffable cultural attunement displayed by Trudeaus was mesmerizing and will bode well in buttressing electoral fortunes in the upcoming 2020 elections. While the virtue signaling will entail rich electoral benefits this wouldn’t cut much ice with the Modi regime which is annoyed by Trudeau’s policies.

Initially Canadian delegation announced that they would visit the Harmandir Sahib but wouldn’t meet Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh who condemned Trudeau’s policy of Khalistan separatist appeasement. Singh was highly critical of Canadian Defense Minister, Harjit Singh Sajjan, a Khalistan sympathizer and refused to meet him last year on his Punjab visit. But the unexpected backlash and India’s chilly reception forced the Canadian PMO to reach out to Singh at the eleventh hour. Singh finally held 25 minutes long meeting discussing business ties and people to people interaction with Trudeau and met Harjit Singh Sajjan who accompanied Canadian delegation.  With the Khalistan sentiment on a crescendo, Trudeau reaffirmed support to “one United India” as a damage control. But remarked, “We will stand against violent extremism, but we understand that diversity of views is one of the greatest strengths of Canada” in the same breath. Critics immediately took to Twitter contending Trudeau’s support for the unity of a seven decades old independent country. Moreover, with the parting statement clearly intent on pandering separatist voices, despite his charm offensive, Trudeau failed to impress.

To resurrect much neglected ties with Canada, Modi made a historic visit to Canada in 2015 becoming first prime minister to conduct bilateral meetings after 42 years. He reached out to Canada in a big way, travelled to Toronto and Vancouver. Modi addressed Indian diaspora at Ricoh Coliseum, Toronto, and laid foundations for a strategic partnership with Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Modi secured land mark nuclear energy agreement for supply of Uranium for supply of 3.2 million kilograms over a period of five years. Canadian company Cameco Corporation produces 16% of World’s Uranium and India clinched the deal with the company after it stopped supply 45 years ago. Canada, largest producer of Uranium has played a crucial role in the development of Indian nuclear program. It supplied Uranium to India’s first reactor CIRUS in 1954. The supply of Uranium was stopped to India in 1970s when Pierre Trudeau banned nuclear exports to India after the nuclear tests in 1974. India had good relations with Canada till 1960’s because of Nehru’s close personal ties with Canadian Prime Ministers. India had been largest recipient of Canada’s aid under Colombo plan. But two incidents crippled Indo-Canadian ties- the 1974 Smiling Buddha peaceful nuclear tests and the June 1985 attack on Air India flight from Toronto to New Delhi which blew over Atlantic Sea killing all the 329 passengers on board including 182 Indo-Canadians. Investigations clearly indicated that plotters of the bomb attack were Sikh militants living in Canada.

In 1980’s at the height of the Khalistan movement, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi launched Operation Blue star in June 1984 to flush out the Sikh separatist leaders holed up in the Harmandir Sahib. This operation led to death of Sikh militant leaders Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, Amreek Singh and General Shahbeg Singh. Incensed Sikhs later assassinated Gandhi. Aggrieved Congress regime unleashed a pogrom killing thousands of Sikhs. By 1980s Canada had sizeable Sikh population after 1984 the number steadily swelled. Khalistan sympathizers found safe havens in Canada. Canada a home to half million influential Sikh community who account for 1.4% of the population. Trudeau’s Liberal Party has pandered to Sikh community to come to power. Trudeau cabinet has four Sikhs and all of them are accused of being sympathetic to Khalistan cause. Owing to Trudeau’s support, Sikh terrorism is witnessing a massive revival. In December 2017, the management committee of 14 Gurudwaras in Canada has imposed a ban on the entry of Indian diplomats. Similar declarations followed in UK, US and Australia. India now fears the steady built up of offshore radicalism which can potentially reignite latent narratives in Punjab. In April 2017, Canadian legislature passed a motion describing the 1984 Sikh riots as “genocide”. Member of Provincial Parliament of Liberal Party, Harinder Malhi moved the motion and Jagmeet Singh, who was denied a visa by India in 2013, leader of opposition New Democratic Party supported it. Jagmeet Singh, refused to condemn the actions of Talwinder Singh Parmar, the mastermind behind the bombing of Air India flight. Reports indicate that some of the non-violent activist groups in Canada have closely aligned with Kashmir Separatists. Despite Indian concerns, Trudeau chose to openly court the Sikh militants. Trudeau regime interprets Khalistan movement as a backlash against the violation of human rights of Sikhs which gradually snow-balled into a secession movement. It claims to be sympathetic to the freedom of the expression of the vocal minority. Clearly Trudeau has missed the forest for woods and refuses to even contemplate on the enormity of Sikh radicalism that is slowly rearing its tentacles.  Trudeau attended the rally carried out on Khalsa Day glorifying the Sikh separatist leaders who died in the Operation Blue Star. India took serious objection to Trudeau felicitating separatist elements. Despite several attempts Canadian High Commission refused to take a stand on Trudeau’s position on Khalistan issue.  On the Annual Khalsa Parade Day Ontario Gurudwaras committee passed a resolution in support of holding referendum in 2020. Smitten by dubious interpretations, in May 2017, Canada denied entry to retired CRPF officer at the Vancouver airport deeming him to have served a government which engages in “terrorism, systematic or gross human rights violations or genocide”. Canada’s castigation of India as human rights abuser had perturbed India. 

Though official stand of Canadian government reaffirms support to India’s unity and integrity, Trudeau’s servile approach towards Khalistan issue and courting Sikh radicals have generated great distrust. Trudeau’s soft pedaling of separatism and Sikhs has damaged bilateral ties. On his current visit, instead of rejuvenating ties, Trudeau resorted to virtue signaling to reap electoral benefits.  India and Canada, being strong democratic countries have a lot in common. India being fastest growing market economy can be a rich market for Canada. There is a lot of scope for enhancing trade ties and boosting the bilateral trade which is $6.2 billion. India accounts for 1.95% of Canada’s global trade. Even on security front, formidable rise of China is now forcing the democratic countries to join hands and Canada may not be averse to join such an alliance. Also, China has recently unveiled plans of entering the Artic Circle which has been the exclusive dominion of few countries and Canada will have great role to play. But Trudeau preoccupied in cultural appropriation hardly bothered to engage with India.

Meanwhile, the barrage of controversies began to loom Trudeau’s visit. Amid the row of Khalistan sympathizers being part of Trudeau’s team, a journalist who protested Modi’s visit to Canada in 2015, Manvir Singh Saini accompanied Trudeau to all official events. Jaspal Atwal, member of banned Sikh extremist group, charged for attempting to kill Punjab Cabinet minister was invited to dinner at Canadian High Commission. The incident came into light after he was spotted with Gregorie Trudeau at an event in Mumbai. Following an outrage his invitation was rescinded. Interestingly, controversies galore made much news even much before official engagements hitting the headlines. These negative vibes significantly altered the atmosphere of bilateral engagement.

On 23^rd, Prime Ministers Modi and Trudeau met Hyderabad House for bilateral talks and held extensive discussions on counter terrorism, extremism, boosting trade ties. Both sides inked six pacts including one on energy cooperation. Agreements are also signed in areas of education, information communication technology, sports, intellectual property rights and science& technology. The much-anticipated Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPAA) aimed at safe guarding rights of investors of both countries couldn’t be signed. Addressing the Press conference, in a veiled reference to Trudeau’s soft approach towards Sikh radicalism, Modi said “there should be no space for those who misuse religion for political motives and promote separatism. We will not tolerate those who challenge unity and integrity of our countries”. Joint Statement clearly emphasized that “no country should allow its territory to be used for terrorist and violent extremist activities”. Needless to say, Modi government is miffed by Trudeau’s policies. Multiple clarifications by Trudeau, Canadian Prime Minister’s office, and Canada foreign minister Chrystia Freeland as damage control failed to assuage genuine concerns of India. In all the din and clamor, Trudeau lost an opportunity to engage with India. Meanwhile, the royal snub earned by Trudeau would rightly be reckoned for all the discordant notes.

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Comprehending intricate Indo-Iranian ties on President Hassan Rouhani's visit to India

In yet another test to India’s pragmatic foreign policy of carefully balancing ties, New Delhi hosted President Hassan Rouhani of Iran who was reciprocating Modi’s visit to Iran in 2016. Modi’s ceremonial visit to Tehran in 2016 culminated in inking the trilateral transit agreement between India, Iran, and Afghanistan. Rouhani who was on a three day visit to India on Feb 15^th landed in Hyderabad. Invoking the centuries old “civilizational ties’’, became the first foreign leader to address the Jummah congregation at the 400-year-old Mecca Masjid built by the Qutub Shahi rulers. Rouhani chose the Mecca Masjid over the Jummah Masjid since it is the only mosque where Shias and Sunnis offer prayers together. Moreover, Hyderabad has sizeable Shia population. At a time, when sectarian conflict on the Middle East is undergoing a major churn, Rouhani wanted to seek the support of Indian Muslims, who constitute the second largest Muslim population in the World. After the Friday prayers, carrying message of unity Rouhani expounded the need for overcoming sectarian violence. He remarked “If part of the Muslim society in the Islamic World is suffering from a problem, it is because Islam’s teachings and advice are not acted upon and that real Islam is not dominant”. He lashed out at America and urged Muslims to come together against Israeli regime and other enemies. Rouhani’s trip has come at a precarious time, when conflict between Israel and the Shia-militants backed by Iran has escalated. Days ahead of Rouhani’s visit, Israel shot down an Iranian drone that entered its airspace from Syrian border. In retaliation, Iranian forces operating from Syria downed Israeli F-16 aircraft worsening the tensions in the Middle East. This latest abrasion between the archrivals Iran and Israel post Trump’s decision of declaring Jerusalem as capital of Israel has intensified into bitter rivalry.

Iran’s Bouncy Trajectory

Interestingly, Rouhani’s state visit to India comes a month after India extended rousing reception to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who pledged to add new momentum to Indo-Israel partnership. Of late, Iran is treading along a bouncy trajectory and going through amorphous times. Iran’s relations with US have moved South after Trump took over as the President. He not only imposed a temporary travel ban on Iranians to immigrate to US, but hardened his stance towards Iran, calling it a sponsor of terror and “rogue regime”. He called for revocation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated by P 5+1 on Iran’s nuclear program and refused to certify Iran Nuclear Review Agreement Review Act (Inara)- complies with the historic nuclear deal.  While IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) authorized Iran’s compliance, Trump prevailed that Iran should terminate its ballistic missile program and Uranium enrichment program immediately and in absence of the above he refused to waive the sanctions of the deal which concludes in 2030. Though he stopped short of pulling out from the JCPOA, he imposed unilateral sanctions against Islamic Revolutionary Guards Cops (IRGC). Trump’s decertification threats widened chasm between both US and Iran.

Economic sanctions from 2007 to 2016 has crippled Iranian economy, widened income disparities and middle class was hardly hit. High-inflation, unemployment and massive corruption triggered protests across the country. Huge domestic uproar resulted in large scale protests in Iran during the first week of January when the Rial has plunged to a new low of 48,000 per a dollar. Soon there were protests against Iranian conservatism by women who challenged the mandatory law of wearing hijab or veil in public. Ever since the Iranian revolution in 1979, the country was taken over the hardline Islamists now headed by Ali Khamenei (after the death of father of Iranian revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khamenei) the supreme commander-in-chief. He appoints the six of 12 members of the Council of Guardians, that oversees the functioning of Parliament and determines which candidates can run for the public office of the Presidency. While the President is democratically elected, he is a nominal head. In the face of rising protests for social liberation, Rouhani who is considered a moderate face promised to hold referendum on legitimacy of present political order. Rouhani is now delicately balancing the domestic unrest that is opposing conservatism, protesting economic downturn, and trying to avert the prospect of another round of economic sanctions. Against these lows, Iran expanded its regional influence through the Syrian civil war gains, propped up the Hezbollah (in Lebanon) and is believed to be aiding the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Iran’s new expansionism and regional presence has become inimical to Sunni-giant Saudi Arabia. This intense hegemonic rivalry is igniting a fresh conundrum in the West Asia has turned it into seat of intense diplomatic and geopolitical activity.  

Indo-Iran relations

Against its burgeoning regional influence, Iran starring at the prospect of international isolation is keen on renewing its partnership with India. Indo-Iranian friendship began in 1950 with countries signing the friendship treaty that called for perpetual peace and friendship. But with time both countries moved to opposite axis of cold war era. Iran under the leadership of Muhammed Reja Shah allied with US, and together with Pakistan, Iraq, UK, Turkey became part of CENTO (Central Treaty Organization), while India gravitated towards Soviet Union. Notwithstanding the friendship treaty, during 1965 and 71 wars, Iran helped Pakistan. In the meanwhile, Iran’s ties with the US soared, hardline Islamists seized control of Iranian political regime, steered it away from democracy and ushered the nation into the Iranian revolution in 1979. India feared the radical Islamist ideology might catch up with Indian Muslims and lend support to self-determination of Kashmir.  At the same time, Iran was upset with India for failing to condemn Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan in public. Despite the differences, India always tried to maintain good relations with Iran due to its energy dependency. Also, India and Iran always undermined unipolarity. While both had different relations with the US, they didn’t approve of US’s role in Middle East. Till 1977, Prime Ministers Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Morarji Desai travelled to Iran. Roiled in incessant wars with Iraq, Iran hardly engaged with India.

Post Iranian revolution, P V Narasimha Rao’s first visit to Tehran in 1993 and subsequent Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s reciprocal visit to Delhi in 1995 gave bilateral ties a fresh lease for life. In March 1994, Iran blocked a consensus against India on Kashmir at United Nations as mark of solidarity. India and Iran maintained closest strategic convergence through the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. In 2001 Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s signed Tehran Declaration with President Khatami that addressed energy concerns, finalization of agreement with Iran for LNG, development of gas pipeline, scientific and technical cooperation, and commitment to develop north-south corridor. India always felt Iran is critically important in providing access and with Central Asia. On the contrary, having suffered isolation with the election of hardliner Ahmadinejad, Iran always sought relations with India which had varied relations with different countries. India and Iran stepped up engagement, enjoyed good maritime relations which included joint military exercises, high-level military visits, cooperation in naval technology and infrastructure.

In recognition of Iran’s valued relationship, India invited President Khatami as guest of honor for the Republic Day Parade in 2003 and both sides signed the New Delhi Declaration deepening the engagement to include military cooperation, expansion of non-hydrocarbon trade and development of Chabahar (Chabahar-Fahranj-Bahm rail link). Around the same period, India tried to revive its ties with US and was negotiating a Civil Nuclear Agreement. Bowing to US concerns of Iran’s nuclear program, India voted against Iran at IAEA in 2005 and 2006-initially for imposition of sanctions against Iran for non-compliance and even complied that Iran’s case be referred to UNSC straining the bilateral ties. India later defended its actions saying it lobbied with the West to help Iran in in providing diplomatic solutions. As a testimony to its continued friendship during the sanctions regime, Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee paid visit to Iran in 2007. In fact, India continued to import oil from Iran and maintain trade ties when Iran was globally isolated.

Challenging Indo-Iranian Ties

Indo-Iranian ties have always been transactional and besides energy, connectivity has been mainstay of bilateral ties. To circumvent Pakistan’s blockade, India keenly pursued Chabahar development project to foster trade ties with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. To this end, India, Iran, and Russia signed the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multi-modal network in 2000 to reduce the cost and time taken for shipment from Mumbai to St Petersburg through Iran’s Chabahar port. But the project missed several deadlines and even after 17 years of the initiation, the project isn’t close to completion. After the trilateral transit agreement, India expedited Chabahar port development and invested $85 million towards the first phase of Shahid Beheshti Port which was inaugurated by Rouhani in December last year. India has indeed, made its first wheat shipment to Afghanistan signaling the importance of this port and pushing for the operationalization of INSTC.  Despite India’s fervent interest, Iran announced that is open to a deal with China and Pakistan on Chabahar development. Iran has always been a finicky nation to deal with. Aside difficulties in economic negotiation, it poses political challenges. Ali Khamenei rallied Muslim community to support Kashmiri brothers when India reached out to Saudi Arabia and Israel. Besides, Chabahar, issue of awarding of contracts for development of Farzad B gas field in Persian Gulf discovered by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation in 2002 is mired in squabbling. India initially hesitated to invest due to the sanction regime on Iran. No sooner, sanctions wwere removed India renewed negotiations, but Iran changed goal posts, invited six other investors and delayed the deal. Despite the proclaimed historical links, engagement with Iran is replete of several challenges.

Bilateral Engagement

Stepping up engagement, India and Iran signed nine agreements which included avoidance of double taxation, exemption of visa for diplomatic passport holders, extradition treaty, cooperation in traditional medicine systems, establishment of expert committee on trade remedial measures, agriculture, medicine and health and postal cooperation. Iran has agreed to lease operational control of a part of Chabahar port for 18 months to India. India committed $500 million towards multi-modal network of Chabahar port. But the project development is tardy due to Western Banks reluctance to support Iranian projects. Interestingly, despite Trump’s hostility towards Iranian administration, US didn’t object to India using Chabahar in the interest of stabilizing Afghanistan. To this end, Tillerson clarified that US “wouldn’t interfere in the legitimate business interests” of its allies and friends. Aside connectivity, India is keen on Chabahar because of its strategic location and proximity to Gwadar port of Pakistan leased by China.  Iran has promised to fast-track the pace of negotiations of Farzad B gas field. Another key aspect of Rouhani’s agenda other than connectivity, energy cooperation was seeking Indian investments. To promote Indian investments in Iran, New Delhi has allowed Indian businesses to invest in Indian rupees. So far, permission to invest in Indian rupees is made to Nepal and Bhutan. India made this major departure for Iran, since it is barred from dealing in dollars and euros due to nuclear sanctions. Both countries have pledged to step up cooperation to counter extremism, terrorism, and drug trafficking in Afghanistan to restore stability. While Iran is also troubled by restive Afghanistan, its stance towards Kabul has been significantly different from India. India welcomes US role, while Iran is keen on working with China and Russia. 

In his special address delivered at ORF (Observers Research Foundation), New Delhi, Rouhani supported India’s bid to UNSC but raised doubts on UN’s influence and relevance. He criticized US interference in Syria and reiterated Iran’s commitment to abide by 2015 nuclear deal. Having elevated Indo-Israeli relations to a new level of strategic partnership, Rouhani’s visit is seen as a balancing act by India. Underlining India’s “strategic autonomy”, New Delhi maintained historical engagement with Iran despite being closely allied with the US and Israel. In a bid to bolster India’s strategic security, economic ties and energy interests Modi reached out to Sunni major Saudi Arabia and its allies and Shiite Iran with equal poise and pragmatism, adding yet another dimension to Modi Doctrine which supremely believes in championing India’s strategic interests. But clearly dealing with a theocratic Islamic Republic of Iran is an onerous task as the hardcore Iranian clerics calls all the shots and Rouhani is not in command of Iran’s politics. Regardless of the effusive handshakes, India should be prepared for unexpected twists and turns.

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Space X opens new frontiers for Private Players in Space Science

Space is a fascinating realm. Incidentally any milestone in space exploration catches the imagination of young and old alike. On Feb 6^th Space X, launched the World’s powerful rocket carrying a pay load, the original cherry red Tesla Roadster electric car playing the Space Oddity destined for the red planet Mars. Unlike conventional rocket launches that carry satellites slated for different orbits or interplanetary space travel, the rocket hoisted a car driven by a mannequin Star Man making it more special. To brandish rocket’s incredible load carrying capacity, Space X wanted a huge payload and what best could have served its business interests other than choosing its own product. They zeroed in on roadster, the revolutionary electric car of Musk to promote its brand and technological proficiencies.

Falcon Heavy lifted off from the NASA’s Kennedy Space Centre Cape Canaveral, the place from where powerful Saturn V rockets for Lunar Mission 1969 took off. Clearly, the third stage of Falcon blast off over performed steering the Roadster beyond the heliocentric orbit of the Mars into the asteroid orbit. Roadster having missed its original destination, will now orbit between Mars and Jupiter for eternity and might eventually turn into space debris. But this iconic launch Space X Falcon Heavy has created a history. Till 1991, Cold war rivals US and Soviet Union intensely competed to show case their dominance in every avenue and space was no exception. Their fierce competition yielded numerous scientific breakthroughs that drastically changed the contours of space exploration which has been exclusive domain of the governments. Now Space X’s spectacular launch potentially opened the territory of space for private companies.

The launch was phenomenal in terms of technological advancement. Two of three boosters of the rockets descended majestically to the designated launch area vertically are recovered and refurbished for use in next launch. Recovery of the first stage boosters is a tremendous achievement and speaks volumes of Elon Musk’s vision of reusable rockets which can tremendously reduce economies of scale. Reusability of the boosters used in the Falcon Heavy that can carry a payload of 63,800kg to Low Earth Orbits (LEO) is believed to reduce cost of launching satellites by over a quarter. Aside cost reduction, Space X has now set the bar high for its competitors.

Space X’s incredible feat is now renaissance of sorts for space science and exploration. Having already proven its capabilities in delivering cargoes to the International Space Station and successfully carried out 45 missions and planned 70 missions worth $10 billion.  Space X Falcon 9 reusable rockets have been making significant progress in satellite launching business by reducing the cost by 30% or $18.6 million with every launch. Enamored by its achievements, Space X is now working on Dragon Capsule, Falcon Heavy rocket and the BFR rocket system for its ambitious project of carrying humans on inter planetary destinations. Musk has special interest in red planet and Space X is geared up to send humans to Mars by 2019. Overwhelmed by the recent Falcon Heavy near flawless launch, Musk threw a gauntlet, challenging other rivals for a space race. He encouraged companies indicating that Space X, as a commercial entity managed with internal funds of $500 million and prompted billionaires to invest in Space Science.

Though the entry of private players into the arena of space science has been decades long, federal laws prevented them from launching their own satellites till 1984. In 2010, President Obama’s decision of ending the space shuttle program changed the situation opening the territory of Space for private players. Ever since, private companies relentless vied to fill the void imparting a commercial angle to space exploration. Among the prominent early entrants into space science include Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon who launched Blue Origin and billionaire Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic. In 2015, Blue Origin successfully launched the first reusable rocket. Main stay of these two companies has been space tourism. While Musk was keen on exploring the possibility of putting up human settlements in other planets and space mining.  As of now, Space X has emerged as the leader proving its abilities by placing heavy satellites in low earth orbits at low costs.

Entry of private players has now significantly changed the dimension of space science. Reusable rockets reduced cost of satellite launches and the dream of low cost space travel no longer seems unrealistic. Steadily, an ecosystem replete of private players equipped with new technologies, started blooming across different corners of the World. These include a new genre of smaller satellite launch companies and satellite manufacturers planning to work in tandem with big players. Rocket is akin to hardware, while satellites are the software programs. Private players are slowly replacing the huge geosynchronous communication satellite which are hoisted by powerful rockets with smaller satellites placed in Low Earth Orbits (LEO) to get decent image resolution bringing down the costs to a fraction. Prominent players revolutionizing information technology with small satellites are a Finnish Company ICEYE and New Zealand based Rocket Lab which has it own launch pad on North Island’s Mahia Peninsula. As against the average satellite launch cost of $220 million, Rocket Lab intends to send small satellites for as less as $5million and as frequently as once in a week. They are even employing 3-D printing for building rocket engines.

Parallelly, billionaires across the World are now getting enthused by the prospect of exploring the infinite realm of mysteries, the Space and to use space for the benefit of earth. The list of enthusiastic new entrants includes- Robert Bigleow who intends to send an inflatable hotel to orbit the Moon, Yuri Milner’s Breakthrough Starshot initiative to probe the Alpha Centauri (closet star to our Solar System), Larry Page and Eric Schimdt’s asteroid mining mission and Ashurbeyli’s Space Nation project. Ashurbeyli aspires to build first space nation, Asgardia and any individual over 18 years from any part of the World can apply for citizenship. He intends to send arks of pensioners into space and eventually colonize the moon. Investments are now pouring into space sector into the global space economy worth $329 billion with three-fourths coming from private players. Clearly, Space X’s tremendous success has bolstered the spirits of iconic dreamers and inveterate space enthusiasts.

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Modi’s West Asia Outreach

Keen on sustaining the impetus generated on his first visit to UAE in 2015, Modi travelled to Abu Dhabi and Muscat after completing his first leg of tri-nation tour (to Ramallah).  Marking Modi’s second visit to UAE, the iconic Bhurj Khalifa was lit up in tricolors on Feb 10^th. West Asia is India’s largest trading region and clearly energy security, counter terror cooperation and infrastructure investments dominated the agenda.

Prime Minister Modi was extended a ceremonial reception at the airport by Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who was honored chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations in 2017. Both leaders reviewed the progress of implementation of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed in 2017 and expressed a desire to deepen cooperation in combating terror and counter terror operations. Lauding the efforts of the UAE-based Sawab and Hedayah centres in countering the extremist ideologies, both sides strongly condemned terrorism and extremism in all forms and manifestations. Indian leadership aspired to emulate the work of counter terror platforms operating in UAE.

UAE is the third largest trading partner of India and second biggest destination of Indian goods. It has invested over $11 billion in India. India and UAE signed five MoUs including a pact offering 10% stake in offshore Lower Zakum concession for a period of 40 years (from 2018 to 2047). Sixty percent of stake will be retained by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and remaining 30% is allotted to international oil companies. As per the agreement signed between ADNOC and Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited in 2017, ADNOC is all set to send three shipments of crude oil to fill half of the 1.5 million tons of reserve built at Mangalore for strategic reserves. In a bid to establish its ground presence in India, the third largest oil consuming nations, ADNOC gave up the strategic reserves storage in South Korea. Other MoU’s include those on institutionalization of contractual employment of Indian workers in UAE to curb human trafficking, technical cooperation in railway sector, financial cooperation between stock exchanges and establishment of logistics park at Jammu.  To strengthen maritime cooperation, countries have agreed to conduct first ever joint Naval exercises off the shores of Abu Dhabi this year.

Modi laid foundation stone for the construction of first ever Hindu temple at Abu Dhabi in an area of 55,000 sq mts. By allocating land for temple construction, UAE exuded its commitment towards building a pluralistic society. The hand-carved stone temple is expected to be completed by 2020. Ground breaking ceremony for the temple in UAE, home to 3 million Indians is a historic moment for Indians. Prime Minister Modi delivered key note address at the World Development Summit, Dubai themed on “Technology for Development” and held separate meeting with select business leaders from GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). Later he addressed the Indian community at Dubai.

On his final leg of three-nation tour, Modi made a maiden visit to Oman, a conflict-free nation in the Gulf since 1976 and ruled by the longest serving Arab leader President Qaboos Bin Said al Said ever since. Qaboos wrested power from Sultan Said bin Taimur, his father by dislodging him in a coup with the help of British. Taimur was educated in Mayo College, Ajmer, Rajasthan. India-Omani ties rooted in geographical, historical, and religious connect were further strengthened by Bhatia community of Gujarati traders who have settled in Muscat as early as 1507. In recognition of iconic services rendered by one such Gujarati family, Omani Sultanate conferred the title of Sheikh on their current descendent Kansaki, who is now the only Hindu Sheikh.

India had strong relations which Oman which eventually graduated into a strategic partnership.  Oman played a crucial role in India’s west Asian outreach for decades, is a member of IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association). Oman was visited by four Indian Prime Ministers- Rajiv Gandhi, PV Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh before Modi. Since 2008, Oman has been extending support to India’s anti-piracy operations. The navies of both countries are conducting bilateral exercise since 1993 and biennial bilateral exercises with all the three forces have commenced in 2015. Indian Navy and Airforce use Oman’s Salalahthe for refueling and repair. Further both countries have effectively cemented relations through high level diplomatic and defence visits. Oman was also the first nation to send high-level ministerial delegation to greet the Modi government in June 2014. During Iranian sanctions, India and Oman worked together to construct a gas pipeline between India, Oman and Iran to overcome the tenuous financial embargo.

Oman is now increasingly viewed as a valued partner by India. Indian Ocean region (IOR) has traditionally been India’s region of influence. China’s strategic expansion and ambitious attempts to establish bases along the Sea Lines of Communication in the Indian Ocean is now threatening India’s exclusivity in its own backyard. Oman’s stable political landscape, its strategic location and strong ties with New Delhi bodes well with India’s ambitions to expand its maritime presence.

India has now secured access to Port of Duqm, for military use and logistics purposes. Located along the South Eastern coast of Oman, overlooking Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean and in the vicinity of Gwadar port, Port of Duqm has unique strategic advantage. Duqm is an artificial port, developed exclusively for economic use. Agreement with UAE for joint naval exercises in Persian Gulf and obtaining access to use Duqm for military purposes will enhance India’s strategic presence in the region. Realizing the unique geographical positioning of Duqm, US approached Oman to use the port in 2013. China has invested $350 million in Duqm Port Commercial Terminal and Operational Zone Development Project in August 2016. In August 2017, Oman signed a MoU with Britain allowing Royal Navy to use Port of Duqm, access its facilities and dock vessels. Since last year, there is an increase in Indian activities at Duqm. In September 2017, India sent an attack submarine, two reconnaissance aircrafts and docked a naval ship to enhance surveillance and cooperation. Though little late, India has finally woken up to the maritime challenges posed by China. By gaining access to Duqm, India can checkmate China’s strategic maritime expansion spree and can cutoff flow of Chinese supplies at the Gulf of Oman in times of war. In 1950, Omani Sultan offered Gwadar to India, but Pandit Nehru turned it down expressing concerns in defending it from Pakistan.

China steadily escalated its maritime presence in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by taking over Gwadar, establishing first overseas military base in Djibouti (Horn of Africa) and all geared up to set up a second port at Jiwani near Karachi. Overcoming strategic reticence, India recently signed an agreement with Seychelles to develop airstrip and a base at Assumption Island, had a similar pact with Maldives for Agalega Islands of Maldives and having signed logistics agreement with the US and Singapore, India is now keen on sealing a LEMOA kind of agreement with France during Emmanuel Macron’s upcoming visit to India. Though China’s strategic hold of its bases is far more encompassing and robust, India is making fervent attempts towards maritime power assertion. Now, MoU on Port of Duqm is a valuable addition to India’s maritime policy.

Keen on strengthening the existing partnership framework, India and Oman signed 8 MoUs on legal and judicial cooperation, mutual visa exemption policy, health, outer space, tourism and military cooperation. Economic ties too received fresh impetus with Omani Sultanate inviting Indian companies to invest in the SEZs of Duqm, Salalahthe and Sohar. With bilateral trade witnessing 3.6% increase, both countries are fast-tracking finalization of bilateral investment treaty. Modi addressed the Indian Community in Oman from the Royal Gallery of Qaboos Sports Stadium exclusively reserved for the President, he hailed the contributions of hard-working India Diaspora towards Oman development. Oman has the largest Indian expatriate community. Before wrapping up his visit to Oman, Modi visited Sultan Qaboos Grand Mosque and the 125-year-old Bhagwan Shiva temple built by Bhatia Community.

Oman stayed away from the regional kerfuffle’s and remained neutral to Yemeni War and Saudi Arabia’s trade embargo on Qatar. Like India, Oman is a non-aligned state and is carefully balancing relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran without slipping into the storm. As of now, there is close semblance between India and Oman with regards to strategic interests. India’s relations with Oman during Qaboos regime have been extremely cordial. But with concerns of Qaboos frequent ill health plaguing the regime, a suitable succession plan will be in place. India should eventually ramp up ties with Oman in the Post-Qaboos scenario as well. Modi’s West Asian outreach marked by dehyphenation of relations, retaining strategic autonomy, bolstering India’s maritime interests and enhancing defence and energy cooperation reflected his pragmatic foreign policy approach.

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Modi's historic visit to Palestine though "forward-looking" has negligible tangible outcomes

Racking up yet another distinction, Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Palestine on his three-nation to West Asia on Feb 10^th. Much before the significance of the historic visit be appreciated, twitter wars erupted with Congress supporters contesting claims of Ministry of External Affairs. Soon, photographs of Prime Minister Nehru meeting UNEF (United Nations Emergency Forces) troops commanded by Lt Gen. RS Gyani at Gaza strip in 1960 surfaced on the social media network. But however, Nehru’s visit wasn’t official and moreover, Gaza was then under the control of Egyptian Military. Hence, Nehru can’t be credited with the honor of visiting Palestine. Support to Palestine cause has been basic cornerstone of Indian Foreign policy. In 1974, India became the first non-Arab country to recognize Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the legitimate representative of Palestine People and officially recognized its statehood in 1988.

Modi’s visit to the West Bank comes weeks after India has hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Earlier in 2017, Modi made an official visit to Israel the first ever by any Indian Prime Minister. India for long delicately balanced its relations with Israel and Palestine that had deep semblance with domestic politics. Since independence, Palestine issue has been a matter of idealistic commitment and appeasement of Muslims in India. Obligated by burgeoning India’s energy needs, sizeable remittances and being home to 3 million Indians, India has been “more Arab than Arabs” and vociferously championed Palestine cause at the UN. India voted in favor of Palestine for becoming full member of UNESCO, backed the resolution against the construction of wall by Israel at UNGA, supported the installation of Palestine flags at UN premises. Despite, India’s unequivocal support for Palestine’s official nationhood, Palestine/ Arab League/ OIC (Organization of Islamic Countries) never backed New Delhi at UN over Kashmir issue. On the contrary, Indo-Israeli collaboration in agriculture, water management and defence have been yielding immense benefits. Intriguingly, India never overtly supported Israel on International platforms nor openly wooed Israel.

Moreover, India’s support to Palestine has now become an oversold argument, Indian Muslims have moved away from the issue and are more worried about their economic upliftment. Further the tectonic shift in geopolitics and bid for hegemonic assertion between the Sunni and Shia powers has taken the West’s interest from the Palestine issue. Even Palestine issue no longer beleaguers the Arab World. In fact, the prospect of oil embargoes on India by Arab world is now a distant rarity. Global oil markets which have slumped due to poor demand have barely recovered. An economically resurgent India with rising demand for oil can be a lucrative market for Arab countries.  While India is exploring new avenues to meet its rising energy requirements and swiftly accelerated the pace of exploring renewable sources, Indian market can be best destination bet for Oil rich nations (in terms of investments and oil demand). In a bid to reduce its dependence on West Asia, India is diversifying its oil and gas imports. New Delhi has started importing natural gas from US which is now exporting gas to Jordan, Kuwait and UAE. In short, India’s fears of remittances, oil sanctions and approval from Indian Muslims should no longer encumber its policy towards Palestine. Also, West Asian countries struggling to quell domestic insurgencies and changing power dynamics are no longer bothered about Palestine. Countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia are not averse to forging ties with Israel. Now the fissures within the PLO have become ominous and the organization lost its resolve. With international community becoming wary of growing threat of terrorism, countries are no longer willing to buy the doctrine of good and bad terrorism. The armed militant wing of PLO, Hamas leader is blacklisted as terrorist by the US and India’s stance on terrorism is in sharp contrast to the objectives of PLO.  

In December 2017, President Trump’s decision of recognizing Jerusalem as capital of Israel in December created a furor in Arab nations who jointly adopted a resolution in UNGA against the move. Despite strengthening partnership and elevating friendship with Israel, India voted in favor of Palestine reasserting its commitment towards Palestine. Burdened by historical baggage, India is still fervently wedded to objective of Palestine nationhood. With time, India is making readjustments by dehyphenating its ties with Israel and Palestine. Modi’s visit to Israel in July 2017 skipping Ramallah has been the first step in that direction.

For all its Hindutva credentials, India’s foreign policy under Modi regime towards Israel and Palestine has been a matter of intense scrutiny. Steering clear of symbolism, Modi eloquently dehyphenated India’s ties with both countries. Months before his Israel visit, Modi courted all the West Asian countries and hosted President Mahmoud Abbas of Palestine and reaffirmed India’s support to Palestine. In a bid to correct the predicaments of Indian diplomacy, Modi traveled to Ramallah in a Jordanian helicopter from Amman, escorted by Israeli choppers. Soon after his arrival, Modi laid wreath at mausoleum of Yasser Arafat and later visited his museum. Certainly, this gesture might have irked Israelis as they believe Arafat was responsible for the killing of several innocent people.

President Abbas accorded red-carpet welcome to Modi and sought Indian assistance and sustained friendship. Both leaders held bilateral talks and signed six agreements worth $50 million which included setting up super specialty hospital at Bethlehem, National Printing press, building an empowerment center for women and construction of schools. After the talks, Abbas conferred “Grand Collar of State of Palestine”, highest honor in recognition of Modi’s leadership and efforts to promote the historic relations between the state of Palestine and Republic of India. Modi carefully avoided references to Jerusalem and strongly asserted that a permanent solution can be possible through dialogue. He said, “dialogue and farsightedness can break the cycle of violence and free it (Palestine) from the baggage of the past. We know it is not easy but we need to keep trying as a lot is at stake”. Conferring the honor, President Abbas said, “We rely on India’s role as an international voice of great standing and weigh through its historical role in Non-Aligned Movement and in all international forum and its increasingly growing power on the strategic and economic levels, in a way that is conducive and just and desired peace in our region”.

After renewed emphasis on “Act East Policy”, Modi with his tri-nation visit to West Asia energized “Link West or Look West” policy. So far, while his efforts in this direction are underappreciated countries held toast to his diplomatic efforts and leadership by conferring medals and legions. Clearly, unlike in the Cold war era, countries are openly seeking friendships with nations of different hues. India too under Modi, courted Sunni and Shia majority nations and struck a delicate balance. Pariahs states no longer exist. While maintaining a degree of acquaintance with all nations is useful in international arena, every country should always be mindful of its interests and should work towards realizing the same. Modi’s visit to Palestine though reckoned as “forward-looking” has negligible tangible outcomes.

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India’s attempts to bolster maritime aspirations

Of late references to India as steward of the Indo-Pacific region have become more prominent. While it is little challenging to appropriately make out geographical mental map of the region, strategically Indo-Pacific region refers to maritime space encompassing littorals of East Africa, West Asia, Indian Ocean, Western Pacific Ocean and East Asia. For the first time, Indo-Pacific term was used by Gurpreet Khurana in his article titled “Security of Sea Lines: Prospects for India-Japan cooperation”. The term assumed significant diplomatic relevance when Shinzo Abe used the term during his address to Indian Parliament in 2007 in the context of “Confluence of Indian and Pacific Ocean”. Slowly this term was internalized by highest authorities of India and by 2011 it was extensively used by India, Japan, US and Australia and was first officially documented in Australia’s Defence White Paper in 2013.

China for all practical purposes always used the term Asia-Pacific as Indo necessarily meant India. In the joint statement signed between India and US in 2017, the term made a resurgent comeback with both countries agreeing to forge close partnership as stewards of Indo-Pacific Ocean. Ever since Indo-Pacific was used in lieu of Asia-Pacific extensively. Days before revival of “the Quad” Rex Tillerson, US secretary of state religiously referred to the region as Indo-Pacific underscoring the importance of coming together of India, US, Japan, Australia to counter rising China. Needless to say, extensive use of Indo-Pacific region necessarily reiterates the importance of India in this maritime stretch. In fact, navies of British India used to operate and protect the seas stretching from Gulf of Aden to Malacca Straits and commanded immense respect as net security provider of the region. Though British left after India’s independence, the Royal Naval continued to operate in the Indian Ocean to secure Sea Lines of Communication and trade until their eventual withdrawal from the East of Suez in 1968. Post-independence, preoccupied in guarding western and northern borders India gradually squandered its commandeering position in the vast maritime stretches. India’s strategic geographical position always presented it with an excellent opportunity to develop a Blue Water Navy. But enthralled by the prospect of championing values and idealism, oblivious of real politics India undermined the importance of power projection along the busiest shipping routes of Indian Ocean region (IOR) which is its backyard. While countries like France and Russia, realizing the growing salience of India Ocean acquired bases, India remained complacent.

On the other hand, to ensure an uninterrupted flow of energy supplies through various chokepoints, a growing China began stealthily increasing its presence in the IOR. It unveiled the concept of String of Pearls along the sea lines of communication from Chinese mainland to Port of Sudan. Later under the ruse of coordinating and assisting the anti-piracy operations Chinese flotilla along with a submarine began to frequent Indian Ocean. China began to penetrate India’s sphere of influence. Having established firm control over critical sea lines of communication in South China Sea, Beijing steadily adopted similar strategy to position itself in the Indian Ocean.  While strategists hinted about China’s ambitious maritime expansions, India turned a deaf ear. Beijing steady acquisition of bases in the strategic IOR served as a much-needed wakeup call for India.

Negating India’s dominance in IOR, Beijing having acquired Hambantota port of Sri Lanka under debt-equity swap in Indian Ocean officially on a lease for 99-years is now all set to establish logistics base in the Arabian Sea in Southern Maldives Laamu Atoll. Earlier, China eased its way into Arabian Sea through CPEC by obtaining Gwadar port on lease for over four decades from Pakistan. Reports suggest China is building second overseas military base in Pakistan at Jiwani, a port close to Iranian border on Gulf of Oman (Makran Coast). Last year, China officially opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti. Over years, Dragon developed a formidable string of pearls that facilitated unobstructed flow of energy supplies and strategic maritime presence in IOR. Besides China continued to buttress its presence along the supply lines by building a railway line from Khartoum, capital of Sudan to Port of Sudan and Bagamoya port in Tanzania. A Chinese company now controls container terminal in Colombo.

India torn between idealism and real politick remained a reluctant player for long. Erosion of Indian dominance in its backyard generated a new sense of urgency in New Delhi to acquire bases and facilities. Giving a direction to India’s maritime aspirations, Prime Minister Modi on his visit to Indian Ocean states Mauritius and Seychelles in 2015 assured them of India’s commitment of being security provider in the region. He also indicated India’s interest in developing military facilities at Aga Lega in Mauritius and Assumption Island in Seychelles.

In a shot in arm to Indian aspirations, on January 31^st India signed an agreement with Seychelles to develop, build, manage and maintain facilities on Assumption Island. The island is leased to India for operating a naval base and an air strip. Similarly, India is all set to refurbish crucial infrastructure facilities at Aga Lega in Mauritius. Both bases lying along the periphery of Africa can be highly useful in monitoring shipping routes. Reports now indicate that India is likely to sign an agreement with Oman for setting up a military base during Prime Minister’s tri-nation state visit to Palestine, Oman and UAE. India is seriously mulling the plausibility of having a base along the busiest shipping route in the strategically important Persian Gulf.  India is gearing up to ink a defence logistics agreement with France, like the LEMOA with US. With this, India can access French Military bases in the Indian Ocean and Horn of Africa like the Reunion Island near Madagascar and Djibouti. The pact is expected to be signed during France President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India. The LEMOA with US entitled India to access the strategic Guam port at the edge of Pacific Ocean and Diego Garcia in Indian Ocean. India has recently signed logistics agreement with Singapore whereby India can dock its ships for much longer time in Singapore, use facilities and carry out maritime surveillance in South China Sea. Reports indicate that Australia evinced interest in pursuing LEMOA kind of agreement with India which can considerably increase Indian presence in the vast maritime expanses. While Indian efforts pale in comparison to China, which has leased several ports along major trading route, an effort to increase the interoperability of Indian Navies by collaborating with foreign Navies might put India in a good stead. These agreements on long term will play a significant role in building a reliable security architecture.

Languishing in the self-inflicted trap of imbued idealism, India lost precious time. Modi regime is making good attempts to catch up with China whose mountains of finances and economic muscle power ensured it an uninterrupted maritime power-projection run. Indian efforts to operationalize Chabahar have been a good move in this direction. But unlike China which has absolute control over various military bases, India as of now made agreements with respective countries to avail logistics facilities. It is a long road ahead and Indian efforts to bolster its maritime aspirations are commendable.

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Maldives: New theatre of Chinese Power Projection

Post-emergency crisis in Maldives escalated and international community began expressing their concerns over the deadlock. Hours after their arrest, Supreme Court judges under duress revoked the unanimous ruling of full bench overturning release of nine political prisoners and refuting their orders of retrials of all cases against them. This move officially foreclosed President Nasheed’s chances of contesting in the upcoming elections. Rattled Nasheed in an article in Indian Newspaper beseeched India to intervene. He cautioned the international community that “In his (Yameen) endless quest to enrich himself, he has sold off nation’s sovereignty. Foreign powers, among them China, are engaged in a “land grab” of Maldivian islands, key infrastructure and even essential utilities. This landgrab not only undermines the independence of Maldives, but the security of entire Indian Ocean Region. Under President Yameen religious radicals have quietly moved into key positions in the government, security services and institutions. There is a state with the state-a network of radicals lurking in the shadows waiting to overrun the government”. He urged India to act soon, to force Yameen into accepting Supreme Court’s decision ensuring the conduct of free and fair elections under international monitoring.  

Spurred by ambitions of power projection in Indian Ocean, China eyed Maldives and established embassy in 2011 during the Presidentship of Nasheed. Ever since, there has been a massive upsurge in the scale of Chinese association with the largest Island chain. Even the enormity of Beijing’s influence in Maldivian politic has increased steadily. While the World severely condemned the sudden ouster of Nasheed and questioned the credibility of Waheed who was installed in his place, China backed him. This move cemented Maldives pivot towards China. In reciprocation, Waheed cancelled a $511 million contract awarded to Indian firm GMR group for development of Male International Airport and was awarded to Chinese company Beijing Urban Construction Group (BUGC) for $800 million by Yameen. GMR eventually reclaimed only a paltry $270 million as compensation when it pulled up Maldivian government to court for cancelling the contract. China filled Maldives coffers to pay compensation amount. It is also believed China granted $500 million (roughly 25% of Maldives GDP) in funds to Waheed on his visit to China.

By September 2014, when presidents of both Maldives and China exchanged visits, Maldives agreed to be part of the Maritime Silk Route (MSR). President Xi on his at visit to Male, laid foundation stone for the construction of 1500 houses at Hulhumale, nicknamed as Chinatown Ever since, an overwhelming of Chinese influence with signposts in Mandarin, hotels, restaurants run by Chinese on the archipelago became ubiquitous. China soon replaced Europe as the largest source of tourists to Maldives. A 30% surge in Chinese tourists reiterated symptomatic Chinese expansionism. China had even clinched a contract to build Gadhoo port in Southern Atolls and China-Maldives Friendship bridge that connects Male to Ibrahim Nasir international airport at Hulhumale.  Yameen raised $800 million for development of Ibrahim Nasir airport from EXIM Bank of China and Saudi Arabia. China is keen on gaining control over Gadhoo airport for its proximity to US base Diego Garcia. In 2015, Yameen tailored a constitutional amendment facilitating Chinese inveterate land grab. Holding toast to Chinese friendship, in August 2017, disregarding Indian concerns, Yameen allowed docking of three Chinese warships in Male.

China steadily expanded its hold over Maldivian economy. Since 2008, Maldivian imports increased 200% turning it into a vassal state of China and bilateral trade became awfully skewed.  Giving fresh impetus to trade ties, both countries signed of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as Maldives believed that FTA is expected to boost its fishing industry. The drama leading to signing of FTA in December 2017, on Yameen’s visit to Beijing and the secrecy that loomed large raised more suspicions. Parliamentarians were denied access to the FTA documents, government allowed less than half an hour to approve 1000 pages plus document. It was passed in parliament (with total strength of 85) with just 30 votes. President Yameen during his New Delho visit in 2016 assured that Delhi would be first country with which Maldives will sign FTA. But made a massive U-turn signed an FTA with China and later sent an envoy, Minister Mohammed Asim to India reaffirming his government’s adherence to Maldives “India First Policy and emphasized that Maldives attached highest priority to its ties with India”.

Economically unviable infrastructure projects, non-concessionary Chinese grants bloated the debit to GDP ratio of Maldives which has transitioned into Middle Income Nation from Least Developed Country in 2011. Currently over 70% of Maldives debt is owed to China becoming second south Asian nation to be ensnared by debt diplomacy of China after Sri Lanka. Highlighting the enormity of grievous economic situation Nasheed in his interview to TOI said “The loan interest is more that 20% of Maldives budget”.   While parallels are already drawn between the fate of Gadhoo port of Maldives and Hambantota of Sri Lanka, Maldives is akin to Pakistan, another Chinese vassal state. Similar fate is awaiting Pakistan which has become major partner of BRI through CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) is expected to pay $90 billion debt to China over the next 30 years. Yet another feature common to Pakistan and Maldives that abets their tilt towards the Dragon is its abominable disregard for liberal values, human rights and democratic values. In recent times, authoritarian and undemocratic regimes of small countries are seeking shelter of illiberal behemoth to escape the wrath of the West. Further China always had close ties with OIC (Organization for Islamic Cooperation), an organization of 56 Muslim countries. In the past few decades, China with its economic might rapidly expanded its influence among smaller countries headed by despotic leaders by offering to build infrastructure facilities without any regard to rule of law. Even the authoritarian rulers are getting increasingly attracted towards China’s “authoritarian capitalism”. Many countries are now embracing China’s developmental model. Especially the East European countries like Poland, Hungary and South East Asian countries- Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia are now keen on following Chinese footsteps.

Besides, China after gaining adequate economic leverage in countries started exerting great control over domestic politics. The scintillating example of overthrowing Zimbabwean President Mugabe by leaders propped by Dragon stands testimony to China’s interference. Even the regimes in Angola and Ethiopia regimes have come under Chinese influence. Australia and New Zealand plagued by burgeoning Chinese influence in politics have ordered serious investigations. Yameen’s hardened stance despite international appeals to honor Supreme Court’s decision inadvertently confirmed China’s support to an illiberal Maldivian government.

Responding to Maldivian crisis Indian spokesperson observed, “It is imperative for all organs of the government of Maldives to respect and abide by the order of the apex court”. China which not only took objection to India’s statement and Maldivian opposition clamor for Indian intervention, through its official mouth piece Global Times, argued, “Political struggles are supposed to be internal affairs and New Delhi has no justification to intervene in Male’s affairs. The Maldives must be under huge pressure from India. The Maldives sovereignty should be respected. The political unrest should be left to the Maldivian people to address. We urge all sides in the country to exercise restraint and end the crisis at the minimum cost, striking the correct balance between legal and government authority”. Mincing no words, it added, India’s involvement would be akin to invasion. China’s indifference to Yameen’s absolutism has buttressed his position who has sent envoys to friendly countries which included- China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Maldivian Ambassador to India told Reuters that the government wanted to send a special envoy to India but the dates were not suitable for the Indian Foreign Ministry.

Reposing great faith in India’s role as the regional security provider Nasheed has consistently pleeding “Maldivians see India’s role positively: in 88 they came, they resolved the crisis and left. They were not occupiers but liberators. That is why Maldivians took to India now” against Chinese false propaganda that India has been manipulating Maldives and harbors a strong desire to control south Asian countries. Yesterday Maldivian government arrested two journalists from AFP, private television channel including an Indian and suspended the local Rajje Television from broadcasting. Yameen refused to meet delegates of diplomats from Britain, EU and Germany. Emboldened by Chinese support, Yameen is ruthlessly cracking down opposition and media.

While continues to maintain that it never interferes in internal affairs of other countries, China’s warning that it doesn’t want Maldives to become a “flashpoint” clearly illustrates Dragon’s role in shaping Yameen’s regime. Meanwhile, Nasheed made a startling revelation that China have have taken control of 17 Maldivian islands and urged international convention to prevail over Chinese land grab. Maldives located along the sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean and 700km away has a crucial role in India’s security. India as of now is closely monitoring the situation in Maldives. Clearly, China with its massive economic clout only emerged as a formidable land grabber but a formidable force supporting despotic regimes. It is time India joins hands with like-minded countries and regional players in reinstating democratic values to restore peace and order in Maldives.

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Maldives on the edge as President Yameen declares State of emergency

The tiny archipelago in Indian Ocean, a humble paradise for tourists, Maldives with a population of 3,50,000 is battling to sustain democracy which made a significant entry just a decade back. Maldives has been on boil since February 1^st when five-member Supreme Court bench ordered the release of former President Nasheed and all other political prisoners. It also cancelled Election Commission’s order against the 12 parliamentarians, who have defected to President Yameen’s Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) on his behest. In the meanwhile, Yameen called in riot police to dispel the crowd who have thronged the capital to celebrate release of opposition leaders-Nasheed of Maldives Democratic Party (MDP), Qasim Ibrahim of Jumhoree Party, Adhalaath Party Leader Sheikh Imran Abdulla, Former Defence Minister Mohammed Nazim, Faris Maumoon, Yameen’s nephew and four other leaders. Heavy handedness of police turned the event into a law and order maintenance problem soon. Additionally, the court ruling pronounced that cases slapped upon these political leaders were against Maldives Constitution and International Law. It stated that political pressure was applied during the trials, ordered judicial re-evaluation and release of these prisoners with immediate effect. Commission of Police promised to implement Court’s order but within hours he was dismissed and replaced with another commissioner who was ready to follow court’s order. But he too was ousted.

After two days, President Yameen ordered his Attorney General to issue a notice to Court refusing to implement its order.  Even the new police commissioner and the Chief of Defense now said that they would take instructions from Attorney General alone. Supreme Court’s order was a double blow to despotic Yameen’s regime. The order which impelled Yameen’s government to release his arch-political rivals had annulled anti-defection ruling of the election commission restoring the membership of 12 defectors. With this Yameen’s ruling party lost majority in the Parliament (Majilis) making it easy for the opposition alliance to impeach President Yameen. Foreseeing the spate of his political career, Yameen ordered police to follow the orders of Attorney General who has colluded with ruling government. Soon, armed police barged into Supreme Court and took the Chief justice, Abdulla Saeed and judge Ali Hameed Mohammed into custody. To stall any attempt by opposition to impeach him, Yameen ordered the lockdown of Parliament. His party spokesperson stated, “The Supreme Court ruling stands in defiance of the highest authority in the country: The Constitution. The Supreme Court must remember that it is bound by law”. He assured that government will ensure safety of all citizens and tourists as well. To render the opposition alliance ineffective and leader-less, Yameen ordered the arrest of his estranged half-brother and the longest serving president of Maldives, 80-year-old Maumoon Abdul Gayoom who sided with opposition. Escalating tensions further, Yameen announced 15-day state of emergency.

The current situation propped up as the opposition party leaders jointly appealed to Supreme Court seeking its help in bringing down the Yameen’s regime mired in corruption, confiscation of government properties and for acting against the law. Desperate political prisoners had to seek Supreme Court’s intervention, since Parliament was rendered ineffective by Yameen. Yameen shuttered the parliament in July when the opposition parties vowed to vote against close aide of Yameen, speaker of the Parliament Abdulla Maseeh on charges of corruption and abuse of power. Security forces barred MPs from entering the Parliament to prevent vote and declared that four defectors have lost their parliamentary seat.

Maldives for the first time held multi-party Presidential elections in 2008. Ever since the topsy-turvy ride of power struggle to clinch reigns has become a regular affair. Mohammed Nasheed of MDP became the first democratically elected of Maldives in November 2008 was forced to resign in 2012 at ‘gunpoint’. He desperately pleaded Manmohan Singh government’s help to rescue him. Soon, he was replaced by Mohammed Waheed Hassan, a close confidant of President Mahmood Gayoom. Subsequently, in the elections held under controversial circumstances in 2013, President Gayoom’s half-brother Abdulla Yameen of PPM was elected as President. Ever since assuming leadership, Yameen tilted towards China. His unequivocal submission to Beijing’s maritime expansion has been a cause of immense concern to India. Aside his Chinese drift another excruciating aspect of this island that can threaten the regional interest was Yameen’s veritable interest in radical Islam. In 1997, Abdul Gayoom declared Maldives as an Islam nation and shielded it effectively from the modern influences despite the island being the favorite global tourist destination. Under the despotic Yameen regime, Islamic orthodoxy has reached new heights. Besides scuttling the democratic voices on the island, he even closed the island’s lone newspaper. The island slowly and steadily slipped into Riyadh’s embrace. Maldivian society which was hailed as liberal society is now largely conservative. Yameen enamored by Saudi Arabia has sought Riyadh’s cooperation for deepening cultural and educational cooperation. Saudi Arabia in turn has promised to extend scholarships to Maldivian youth for Islamic education, offered to construct mosques and send the Imams to train the local religious leaders. As a result, Maldives has now turned into a new breeding ground for Wahhabi ideology and reports indicate that millions of young Maldivians are indoctrinated with the radical Islam tenets. For decades by pumping immense reserves of Petrodollars Saudi Arabia unleashed a campaign of spreading its radical ideology across South Asia and Maldives joined the list now.  

By February 2015, President Yameen got former President Nasheed, a pro-Indian leader, who sought refuge in Indian Embassy arrested on charges of corruption for 13 years.  By arresting Nasheed, Yameen stifled democratic voices and cleverly plotted to eliminate all his rivals. He expelled two Supreme Judges who didn’t support the repeated postponement of elections and forcibly passed a constitutional amendment setting the highest age limit of 65 for Presidency and Vice-Presidency to disqualify the supporters of Nasheed- Gayoom and Gasim. Maldives is gearing up elections this year and owing to his dictatorial style of functioning, Yameen lost credibility. Nasheed has announced that he would contest the elections and with prospect of returning to power stand grim, Yameen has resolved to crush the opposition with an iron hand. Besides, allying with Saudi Arabia, Yameen is making overtures to Pakistan with regular visits.

Aside, the traditional historical and cultural connect, India always maintained good relations with Maldives. India was one the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with Maldives in 1965 after its independence from the British. Maldives is founding member of SAARC (South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation) and party to South Asia Free Trade Agreement. India always played the role of security provider for Maldives. Responding to calls of help by President Gayoom, in 1988, Indian Army launched “Operation Cactus” and successfully foiled coup attempt by armed militants and had naval presence since 2009. India had always rescued Maldives in times of need by extending relief and support during 2014 tsunami. In 2015, when Maldives lone saline water treatment plant was gutted down in fire accident, India dispatched gallons of fresh water to the archipelago.

Indo-Maldives relations took a massive hit with Yameen’s Chinese drift who allowed them to build a port in Southern Laamu Atolls posing a threat to Indian security. Further he brought out a constitutional amendment wherein any foreign company/individual who invests more than $1 billion in island and reclaims over 70% of land used for project can buy land to favor China. Modi regime officially brought “Neighbourhood First” policy and religiously stuck to it. Prime Minister Modi made visits to all neighboring countries baring Maldives. He was forced to cancel his trip in March 2015 due to oppressive internal conflicts. Though Yameen pronounced that Maldives abides by “India First” policy, on his visit to India in April 2016, there has been marked shift in Maldivian approach followed as Yameen inevitably pushed archipelago into Chinese orbit. China, keen on power projection in Indian Ocean region (IOR) aspired to establish a port on the archipelago never bothered to question the despotic regime of Yameen. While India was apprehensive of the seamless authority and unbridled power of Yameen intent on changing the democratic contours of the island. Though India never chided Maldives in public it was wary and conscious of abuse of human rights and heavy crackdown.

Following the imposition of state of emergency, helpless judiciary and legislature of Maldives are appealing international community and especially India to intervene. India has key leverage in Maldives. As per 1981 trade agreement, India provided special concessions to Maldives to import Indian goods restricted to other countries. Besides, India is frontier destination for education and medical treatment for Maldivians. India is carefully mulling all options and hasn’t imposed any restrictions on trade or travel and refrained from issuing harsh statements for the fear of antagonizing Maldives. But any internal conflict or unrest in the archipelago will have direct effect on Indian security. India is keenly tracking all the developments and issued a travel warning against traveling to Maldives. Incidentally, by signing a free trade agreement and deepening its relations with China, Yameen has turned the island into a zone of proxy war between India and China. In the meanwhile, US and UK have come down heavily on Maldives warning the Yameen government to uphold the court ruling. President Nasheed urged India to intervene. India so far hasn’t blinked officially. With the dictatorial regime of Yameen defying court orders, Maldives is seeking India’ intervention. It is a real tough call for Modi regime. India must act, else Indian backyard might soon be gobbled up by the authoritarian (hegemonic) dragon and extremist jackals.

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