Trump’s bluster: Impromptu air strikes in Syria

At a time when International Media is all eyes for President Trump and President Xi’s rendezvous, egregious American air strikes in Syria gob smacked the World. Last mid-night President Trump did exactly what President Obama did but with a difference. President Trump ordered air strikes against Assad regime following death of over 70 civilians due to chemical weapons usage four days ago in Idlib Province. Autopsies indicated use of nerve gas, Sarin. Calling it as “disgrace to humanity”, Trump gave his go ahead. President Obama, too launched air strikes against Syria in 2014, a year later after a chemical weapons attack in August 2013 after obtaining internal and Congressional authorization. Indeed, US politicians strongly supported Obama’s decision. Trump’s impromptu authorization elicited mixed responses. Interestingly, experts were startled since, Trump vociferously condemned Obama administration for launching attacks on Syria during his election campaign. Moreover, he wasn’t averse to continuation of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime even until a week ago. In fact, Rex Tillerson at press conference on Thursday announced, “it will seem that there would be no role for him (Assad) to govern the Syrian people”. This abrupt change of tack is really intriguing. On March 31^st Nikki Haley said, “we can’t necessarily focus on Assad the way the previous administration did”.

It defies common logic as why Assad regime would use chemical weapons against civilians when it is making big gains against IS. Observers of Syrian war last week pragmatically claimed, “from chaos, clear winner is emerging”.

So far 59 Tomahawk missiles were launched from the USS Porter and USS Ross in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea targeting the airstrip, aircraft shelters, logistical storage areas, ammunition supply bunkers, air defense systems, radars fuel stations at the al-Sharyat Syrian government air base. Four soldiers were killed, air base was rendered defunct, air crafts were blown into pieces in the US air strikes on the second largest air base in Syria. This attack is believed to have crippled Assad regime’s air force capacity. Obama administration obtained legal authorization to carry out strikes against IS as per the war authorization passed by Congress after the September 2001 attacks to fight al-Qaeda globally. Obama justified the strikes against IS indicating that is off-shoot of al-Qaeda. Clearly, Trump administration violated the war authorization by striking the Syrian government espousing America’s “interventionist” attitude and its rather tactless “Police of the World” status. Interestingly, during the Presidential debates, Trump admonished these very unalienable characteristics of the US.

Trump’s forthright justification of “there can be no dispute that Syria used banned chemical weapons, violated its obligation under the chemical weapons convention and ignored the urging of the UN Security Council. It is in the vital national interest of United States to prevent and deter the spread and use of deadly chemical weapons” seems to hold no ground. It would be preposterous to allege that Assad regime used chemical weapons, just four days after the attack without an independent investigation. Syria suffered two chemical attack in 2013 and Obama administration alleged that Assad regime had used them. But investigations by UN agencies indicated that attacks were carried out by Syrian rebels, whom US assisted, trained, and supplied arms till it officially entered Syrian skies in 2014. But in 2016, UN concluded that Assad regime and IS are in possession of chemical weapons and that Assad used Chlorine in regions controlled by opposition in 2014 and 2015 while the IS used Sulphur mustard in summer 2015. Chemical attack in August 2013, caused death of over 1000 people. Following International outrage over the indiscriminate use of chemical weapons, UN was forced to act. It requested Organization for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to conduct searches for chemical weapons in Syria and destroy them. For its outstanding service, the organization was even conferred Nobel Prize in 2013. OPCW unearthed several tons of 130 different chemicals which were quarantined, 97% of chemical weapons were eliminated from Syria by September 2014. Recurrence of chemical attacks after 2014 in Syria is now raising serious concerns about the undeclared chemical weapons still lying in Syria.

Syria in the past six years endured unparalleled atrocities, witnessed colossal loss of property and lives, relentless firing. It has become a battle ground for a chunk of combatants- Rebel groups, al Nusra, IS, Syrian Kurds, Turks, Iraqi Militia, US-led alliance coalition and Russian troops. The fate of Syrian regime began to change, when Russia air and ground troops began to make an entry by September 2015. Though Obama administration has pumped in as much as $1billion worth ammunition in just 2016, it couldn’t turn around the tables. In 2016 alone, US dropped 26,000 bombs and most of them landed in civilian areas. President Trump after taking charge continued air strikes but harbored a pragmatic approach. Of late, US made a major policy shift. Instead of picking conflict with Russia, Trump aspired to join hands with Russia to fight IS. Trump’s filibuster, prompts an analysis of sequence of events that preceded, American air strikes.

A major air strike conducted by the US led coalition on March 17^th left 300 civilians dead in Iraqi town of Mosul. In the last week of March, 9 Afghan civilians were killed in a US-led air attack. Interestingly, media channels smartly refrained from reporting these incidents. In the meanwhile, CIA intensified investigations to probe links between Russia and Trump’s election campaign delegation. Even on March 31^st Rex Tillerson who was in Turkey iterated that “long term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people”. April 4^th St. Petersburg in Russia witnessed a bomb attack and alleged gas attack too happened on the same day. By April 6^th Trump changed his position on Syria, and appealed that Assad regime was responsible for the attack. Trump’s allegation received support from UK, France, and Australia. But Justin Trudeau called for caution and lamented military action against Assad as Syria is torn asunder by over 6 years of civil war. With Trump decision, US forces in Syria must now take on IS, al-Qaeda and Assad. Thus, US renewed animosities with Russia and reinvigorated enmities of Cold war era. Repercussions of Trump’s temerarious decision can mortify fledging cordial relationships between two giants-US and Russia. Russia has suspended agreement with US that prevents mid- air collisions in Syrian air space. Both countries will no longer continue to exchange information about flight of war planes. Russia informed that US gave less than 90 minutes’ notice of attacks.

Unfortunately, amidst furor over chemical attack, US instead of training guns against IS, is plunging deep into another war. A war whose political and diplomatic strategies are poorly coordinated. This ill-conceived, hasty decision might be disastrous for US and Syria too.  Numerous conflicting groups have stakes in Syria and without a long-term strategy toppling the Assad regime might ruin the nation. Conflicts of warring factions would intensify further and Syria will be broken into pieces. It will become breeding ground for more terror elements. Region will become unstable due to unabated displacement of people. Trump inveterately brought back US to its default status of an interventionist. US had muddled and ruined Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and now flexing muscles against Syrian regime.

Throughout the duration of election campaigning Trump, promised to keep US away from wars but he was no different from any other Republican president. For all the bluster, the most vitriolic opponents of Trump might lend him support. Ironically, by upping ante against Russia, Trump will strengthen Moscow’s resolve of consolidating Assad’s regime. Eventually, Iranian militia working alongside Russian troops steadily firming up their position in West of Syria might intensify their traditional and nontraditional means of war. In the process, Syria might be pushed into abyss…..

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