Even before the ink of the Goa declaration dried, Chinese
made a drastic U-turn in striking down Prime Minister Modi’s reference to
Pakistan as “Mothership of terror”. By glaringly, hyphenating India and
Pakistan as victims of terror, China deliberately down played Indian concerns.
While China’s volte-face on issues crucial to India are not new, its tacit
support is emboldening Pakistan’s unrelenting pursuit of inflicting damage to
India. With cross-order terrorism and unceasing infiltration across LoC reaching
newer heights, China’s reluctance to incorporate cross-border terrorism
perpetrated by Pakistan in the Goa Declaration validates its complicity. Prime
Minister Modi in a bid to propel India’s growth trajectory invested tremendous
efforts in resurrecting ties with Pakistan and China in the last two years. But
both neighbors, the thickest of friends, overpowered by antipathy towards India
had responded inimically. China is now propping up Pakistan to keep India
preoccupied with unrest and cross border tensions so that New Delhi’s ambitions
of emerging as a potential regional counter balance to Beijing are thwarted.
Propping up Pakistan
In recent years, China is currently luxuriating in the huge
bilateral trade deficit with India largely in its favor. While ensuring its economic and trade
investment interests are least hurt Beijing is draining Indian energies by
buttressing Pakistan. With Pakistan factor looming large Modi met President Xi
Jinping along the margins of BRICS 2016 summit. China’s implacable attitude and
obduracy are now denting Indian interests. China’s rigidity in stalling India’s
NSG membership despite repeated pleas for consideration at various levels and
contentious vetoing of ban on Masood Azhar by the UNSC 1267 Sanctions committee
have irked India. On September 30th, China extended technical hold
on proposed UN sanctions on Azhar. It was the 5th time China tried
to block India’s UN resolution since September 2014. China’s has also paralyzed
Indian efforts to proscribe United Jehad Council chief Syed Salahuddin, the
principal orchestrator of Kashmir insurgency. It shielded Pakistan from censure
for freeing LeT commander Lakhvi and for averring on probing sources of finance
to Hafiz Saeed, master mind of 26/11. All these attempts unequivocally make
China complicit in Pakistan’s terror strikes which left 19 soldiers recently at
Uri. While nations defended India’s right to self-defense for launching
surgical strikes on terror launch pads across LoC, China supported Pakistan’s
position on Kashmir and raised doubts about Indian claims of strikes. It
expressed concerns over India’s decision to completely seal the western border
by 2018. China’s decision to block the tributary of Brahmaputra, Xiabu
originating in Tibet from flowing into India citing construction of the most
expensive Lalho hydroelectric power project undermining the interests of the
lower riparian states has now sparked new tensions.
Modi in a bid to end the diplomatic unease, during his
bilateral talks with Xi at Goa, raised several issues where combatting terrorism
dominated the agenda. While Modi tweeted, that talks were fruitful, China’s
quick reversal of stand on terror clearly indicated that Beijing connives
Pakistan perfidy. As opposed to its much-touted peaceful rise policy, China’s egregious and ambitious accretion is
tremendously changing global geopolitics. The rapid rise of China has
perceptibly changed the dynamics of the region. China’s footprint is growing in
the subcontinent eventually boxing India. With its deep pockets, China
foreclosed India’s efforts of strengthening trade and bilateral relations with
its neighbors. China’s expanding presence in India’s immediate vicinity is now
truly intimidating. Before landing in Goa for the BRICS summit, President Xi in
his brief stopover at Dhaka extended $25 billion credit line which pales
India’s $2 billion pledged by Modi last year. China has carefully revived
Sonadia port project with Bangladesh. Apart from the Colombo port, Hambantota
port of Sri Lanka, this Bangladesh’s port off the Bay of Bengal coast, suffices
China’s aspirations of gaining access to India’s sphere of influence. China’s
overwhelming influence in Maldives is well documented. By earning Afghanistan’s
confidence through arms delivery and military aid, China is slowly roping in
India’s traditional friend. Recently, China has pledged Nepal to modernize Army
and disaster management enhanced security cooperation. A plausible agreement
over extension of the rail line between Xigaze (Tibet) to Nepal border under
Trans-Himalayan Railways connectivity reinforces penetrating influence of China
in India’s backyard. With its iron
brother, Pakistan, China is already escalating trouble in India. All these
developments forebode India’s notion of South Asia and India Ocean as its
natural sphere of influence.
Dynamic Strategic
Alignments
Burgeoning hostilities between the West and Russia are
forcing Moscow to enter Chinese orbit. China is also emerging as an
indispensable partner of Russia for development in Arctic Region. In fact,
Russia under China’s duress omitted any references to Pakistan based or
cross-border terrorism or state-sponsored terror in Goa declaration. It must be
remembered that China’s implicit leverage to North Korea flared up tensions in
North Asia. In the meanwhile, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte gesture of
extending hand of friendship to China downgrading military ties with US have
come as shot in arm for Chinese claims in SCS. Addressing officials in Beijing,
Duterte had perceptibly mellowed Philippines position on Scarborough Shoal and
enthusiastically reached a consensus on jointly exploration of resources in
South China Sea (SCS). Beijing suitably rewarded Duterte’s announcement of
separation from US both militarily and economically on its turf by pledging
$13.5 billion deals to Philippines. Earlier in 2012, Philippines pulled up
China for taking control over Scarborough Shoal to International Court of
Justice, Hague. Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) thrashing claims of China
over territorial formations upheld Philippines claims. Disconcerted China
refused to accept the judgement inviting the censure of the West. Though
China’s smaller ASEAN neighbors in SCS are miffed by Chinese claims, ASEAN meet
failed to issue a statement on SCS as the resolution was blocked by Cambodia. Reciprocating
Cambodia’s support China generously signed over 30 cooperative agreements in
areas of agriculture, infrastructure, investment and economy. Besides,
promising $600 million in aid towards country’s election, health and education.
Swelling Chinese hegemony and its unprecedented penetration into various
regions clearly reflects its veritable obsession to wield power.
China’s efforts to
destabilize India
Within South Asia region, while the material indices gap
between India and Pakistan are at all time high with Indian GDP now almost 10
times that of Pakistan, Chinese backing invigorates Islamabad to challenge
India’s influence. As a matter of fact, a debt-ridden Pakistan gives a greater
leeway to China to strategically penetrate it. India’s concerns of CPEC (China
Pakistan Economic Corridor) passing through its legitimate territory are truly
genuine. While China made rapid forays into Indian territory way back in 1970’s
through construction of Karakoram Highway, now under the ruse of CPEC, China is
deploying troops in Gilgit-Baltistan region. China had indeed left no stone
unturned to destabilize India. Evidences suggests that China dispatches arms to
Indian rebels through Myanmar. China intermittently launches cyber-attacks and
hacks strategically important Indian portals. It tried every trick in book to
keep India off-balance to capitalize on the asymmetrical advantages. China is
now contemplating on use of water as political tool. Before Communist regime
China had 22 dams now it has over 85,000 dams both big and small. Beijing known
for its infrastructure building prowess is now planning to construct 14 dams
along Brahmaputra. It has targeted rivers originating in Tibet and Xinjiang
region- Arun, Indus, Sutlej, Irtysh, Illy Amur and Salween but flowing into
India, Nepal, Kazakhstan, Russia and Myanmar. China which has already the water
map of the region is now shying away from playing water politics if needed. Recent
announcement of Renminbi’s inclusion in the elite global reserve currency club is
now boding well for growing China’s economic clout. Aside, its rapid rise now
Chinese ideology is slowly becoming inimical to India’s domestic arena. Beijing’s
objections to US Ambassador Richard Verma’s visit to attend the Tawang festival
at Arunachal Pradesh recently demonstrates China’s obstinacy towards false
territorial claims.
Burgeoning Congeniality
between Communists and Islamists
Waving of the Chinese and Pakistani flag in Kashmir Valley after
the Friday prayers coinciding with President Xi’s visit to India is an alarming
development. Pakistan flags have made their entry into the valley several
decades back. But the appearance of Chinese flags as a solidarity is indeed a
dangerous precedent. While the new development is orchestrated by Pakistan, it
testimonies growing congeniality of Jihadists and Communists. With Communists
and Jihadists working hand in glove in the Valley why would China not veto
India’s attempts to ban Azhar at the UN.
In February 2016, India witnessed brewing anti-national rhetoric with
JNU at the helm of affairs heralding a new moment of fondness between Islamists
and Communists. Now, after the Uri attacks, the indifferent response of
Communist lobbies towards India’s retaliatory surgical strikes and the
overdrive pushing India for talks with Pakistan reflects the obvious. Arrest of
over 10 Naxalites by the ATS (Anti-Terrorism Squad) in Noida, planning attacks
in Delhi couple of days back sums it all. Clearly, a coordinated network of
anti-nationals is turning the nation into asunder. Till now India media has
significant chunk of Pakistan sympathizers, now China baiters are making their
way into main stream media unabashedly playing a pro-China card. This quick
turn of events is truly alarming and demands immediate attention of various
strata of Indian administration.
Way Forward
Clearly apart from the border disputes, India and China have
several outstanding issues to sort out.
An economically strong and resilient India can alone circumvent
overwhelming influence of China. The panacea of all strategic aliments
afflicting India lies in sturdy economic growth and development. India in its
attempts to tame the prodigal Dragon must press the right levers of Tibet and
Xinjiang to its advantage. Earlier this year, India withdrew visa issued to
Uighur activist Dolkun Isa for the fear of political reprisals. But now, India
displayed some mettle by consenting to allow Dalai Lama visit Arunachal Pradesh
scheduled for next year March. Despite
India’s largesse towards China in recommending it for the UNSC permanent membership
and later helping it get entry into WTO, China never reciprocated. China is now
building several multilaterals institutions like Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO), New Development Bank and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
India lent its support to all these frameworks. In return, China never
supported India’s bid for an extended UNSC, stalled NSG membership, vetoed
Azhar’s ban, capitalized on Indo-Pakistan disputes and propped up Pakistan to
expedite its anti-India agenda. China unequivocally questions India’s growing
closeness with US invoking threat of regional imbalances even as it continues
to extend its tentacles into India’s neighborhood. With every passing year,
bilateral trade is drifting largely in favor of China reducing India to a
supplier of raw materials and dump yard for low quality Chinese products. India
must evolve a policy whereby trade deficits can be reduced. With potential to grow
faster and by providing free access to 1.3 billion strong markets India can’t
afford to remain hamstrung. While Beijing voices concerns about Indo-Vietnam
collaboration to explore oil in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone in SCS, Delhi
is expected to remain as mute spectator even as China explores India’s
legitimate territory for economic gains. Delhi should now support Pakistan
lawmakers who expressed concerns over CPEC as “another East India Company in
offing” and worried that CPEC is now aided by local financing instead of
Chinese funding. China is capitalizing on Indian deficiencies. Delhi has a poor
reputation of delaying foreign projects. India should shed the laggard image
and proactively engage with neighboring countries in collaborative projects assuring
timely completion of projects. Alternatively, it can competitively bid for
infrastructure projects in immediate neighborhood with like-minded partners
like Japan. Above all, it is time to hone diplomatic skills invoking the
incisive Chanakya’s Raja Mandala theory of hard diplomacy and steer the
economy by implementing tough economic reforms.
No comments:
Post a Comment