Is “Akrosh” of political parties justified?

Opposition parties have given a call for Bharat Band on Nov 28 to protest Demonetization Drive. Denouncing the move as anti-poor and anti-people, united opposition will observe Nov 28^th as “Akrosh Din”.

Ever since the announcement of demonetization drive by Prime Minister on Nov 8^th the irked opposition party have slowly but steadily escalated war against the audacious move. Political parties initially refrained from making bold statements condemning demonetization, fearing public wrath. But the initial whimper of political parties and objections towards the massive economic reform slowly gathered dust. All parties made precarious comments and deliberately vacillated before hardening their stance. But by around Nov 12^th, Mamata Banerjee hit the streets of Kolkata protesting demonetization drive giving the much-needed momentum and initiative to the opposition to gain ground and launch a tirade. Without losing anytime Arvind Kejriwal joined the bandwagon who besides making scathing remarks on Prime Minister, disseminated the theory of selective leaks to friends of Modi. Together Banerjee and Kejriwal addressed public in Delhi. To garner support against demonetization drive, Kejriwal addressed gatherings at Laxminagar and Azadpur vegetable market. He was hooted out and angry traders tore his posters. Kejriwal earlier convened Delhi assembly and moved a resolution against Prime Minister’s decision.

In the meanwhile, Banerjee has toughened her position and reached out to all the political parties. The unrelenting Banerjee even reached out to BJP ally Shiv Sena to join her march from Parliament to Rashtrapati Bhavan. On the opening day of Winter Session of Parliament, Banerjee carried out a protest march with MPs from TMC, AAP, Shiv Sena and NC. With Rahul Gandhi miserably failing to catapult himself as a parallel to Modi, Banerjee with her aggressiveness, positioned herself as formidable rival to Modi. Having won the assembly elections convincingly in 2011 and 2016, Banerjee is making every bid to elevate herself as an opponent of Modi for the General Elections of 2019. With unrivaled blitzkrieg, she launched an offensive against demonetization by donning the image of crusader of poor and called for rollback of the measure. As elections are nearing, politicians are out competing each other to politically establish themselves as aggressive leaders. Now CPI (M) leader served a notice for moving contempt motion against Prime Minister.

The announcement to observe Akrosh Diwas, comes on a day when an overwhelming majority have strongly supported the demonetization drive of the Modi. While opposition has expressed disdain towards the verdict delivered on the Modi app calling it hoax. Similar pattern of acceptance was recorded in the poll surveys conducted by several independent media groups. Poll surveys indicated that public was very happy with demonetization drive, but were perturbed by the implementation. Unarguably, people are inconvenienced by deficiencies in implementation. But by and large, Indian public are welcoming the move. Indian Public openly endorsed the audacious move of the Centre that can throttle the conduits of parallel economy. In the past seven decades, politicians of all hues made loud proclamations to decimate corruption. But the conviction and the commitment was missing. The spirited response of public in the wake of inconveniences can be traced back to the optimism that finally somebody had displayed the nerve to take the bull of corruption by horns. Ironically, all these leaders who portrayed themselves as messiahs of anti-corruption drive are now launching venomous attacks on the Centre.

The decade long UPA governance riddled with numerous scams frustrated the public and AAP by advocating zero tolerance towards corruption rode to power. But now the very leaders are seriously contesting and denouncing the attempts of Centre. With this double-speak, politicians scaled the pinnacles of duplicity. Irony died a thousand deaths, yesterday, when Manmohan Singh, who rarely speaks, severely criticized demonetization calling it as “organized loot and legalized plunder”. Desperate Congress, having the lost vital principal opposition status and struggling to gain ground unleashed the last weapon in its kitty by erecting Singh to speak at Rajya Sabha. Rattled by public support towards demonetization, Congress wanted to capitalize on the elitist reputation of Singh. But unfortunately, the popularity of Singh failed to strike right notes. Especially the panic perpetration and statement that demonetization would reduce the GDP by two percentage points appeared to be political overdrive. The predictions appear to be politically motivated since it is nowhere close to the estimates of top-notch financial surveys. Care Ratings predicted 0.5-0.3 percent fall, Goldman Sach’s 1.1 percent, Emkay Global 0.9 and ICICI Securities by 0.4 percent. Congress with a history of unfathomable plunder falls short of moral credibility to question the demonetization drive.

Unarguably, demonetization has inconvenienced the common man who was forced to stand in never ending lines at the ATMs and banks to withdraw their hard-earned money. Centre can’t  be completely exonerated of all the lapses in implementation which badly hit the lives of common man. But the public are enthusiastically supporting Modi despite hardships for walking the talk. While this move can upset BJP as it risks losing support of key support base-small traders, but still Modi launched the drive to fight against black money and corruption. After two weeks of monetization, Urban and semi-urban areas are slowly limping back to normalcy and financial transactions have slowly improving. But the rural areas with poor access to banks are still enduring the financial stress. Government will be committing a grave mistake if it fails to push the banking sector to extend its services to reach out to the last man.

The angst exuded by opposition combine in demonizing the intentions of government will back fire. Especially the opposition castigating demonetization as anti-poor might have any takers since the move was welcomed by middle class, honest tax payers who are exulting the new status of being rewarded.

Through irksome political bickering and stinging criticism, political parties have vented out frustration. In the process, they miserably failed to buttress people’s support towards their fight against demonetization. The irresponsible comments of BSP chief Mayawati where she dared Modi saying “I want to tell Prime Minister Narendra Modi that if you really are an honest man and want correct survey and if have guts, then dissolve Parliament and hold fresh elections” clearly reflects the political uneasiness.  Shiv Sena Chief Uddhav Thackery’s speaking to the reporters said, “the demand for Brexit like referendum is okay but what if the referendum goes against demonetization move? Will the PM too follow the steps of the British PM and step down?” This kind of remarks by seasoned politicians raise serious doubts about their intentions. If these politicians are really concerned about the common man, instead of protesting in front to Parliament would indulge in fruitful debates with government, would pull it up for lapses and suggest concrete policy to stem the rot of corruption. By protesting before Parliament and bringing the work to grinding halt they lost the plot.

Opposition argued that post demonetization markets has accrued several losses and that this will have a deleterious effect on the economy. Intellectuals and Economists allayed fears and clarified that subdued financial progress might prevail for the next two quarters following which the economy would pick up pace.

While a detailed insight into dubious reputations of the combined opposition and some leaders in ruling party might put them and nation to shame, the anti-poor stance donned by them reeks of hypocrisy. At a time when escalations of cease fire violations have increased manifold and geopolitical alliances are topsy-turvy, the opposition together with leaders of ruling party must strive to strengthen the country from within. Instead the political front is deeply engrossed in lapping up opportunities to draw political mileage. Demonetization drive would also not only pave way for a serious discussion on state funded elections but turn the dream of digital economy into reality.

By and large irrespective of the political allegiances, leaders are solely interested in drawing maximum mileage. Interestingly, common man is watching the outrage of political leaders more keenly, as they believe that stronger the protest, deeper are the vaults stocked with black money and hence stronger is the financial jolt suffered by them. Notes winning votes in India is a common practice and thus politicians whose treasury chests are rendered useless by demonetization are bound to use every dirty trick in political game to clinch power.

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Overcoming hesitations of history: An overview of Indo-Israeli relations

Apart from the shared values of democracy and freedom India and Israel enjoy a unique relationship. While a dominant section of Hindu society largely admired, Jewish nationalism and concurred with the moral and political base of creation of Israel, India’s official position on Israel was different. Having suffered the poignant partition along religious lines and obtained independence from the colonial European clutches, India strongly upheld self-determination. India supported the cause of Palestine. Consequently, it voted against the partition of Palestine and Israel’s admission into UN in 1949. Being a strong advocate of Non-aligned Movement, India had close relations with Arab League and Russia, while Israel aligned with US and European World. In 1955, Prime Minister Nehru dropped his plans of attending the Bandung conference to appease the Arab World. India didn’t want to antagonize its 120 million strong Muslim population and the Arab World.

Though India recognized state of Israel in 1950 and allowed it to open embassy in Mumbai, Delhi established diplomatic relations with Israel only in 1992 during the regime of Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao. For several decades, India adopted anti-Israeli policy in line with the popular communist view. For long opposing Israel and its policies was considered progressive. During the entire cold-war era bilateral relations were on low key and largely informal. India established military ties with Israel in 1960’s and sought limited assistance from it during the 1962 and 1965 wars. Israel was one of the first few countries to recognize Bangladesh after the liberation war of 1971. Congress and left-leaning regimes, never publicly acknowledged the help provided by Israel. After the collapse of Soviet Union, strategists began a concerted campaign for normalization of ties with Israel. Kuwait war and Madrid Peace Conference changed Indian stance. In December 1991, India voted for repealing resolution of 1975 that equated Zionism with racism. Finally, in January 1992, India adopted policy of engagement as opposed to Isolation and irreversibly altered the Indo-Israeli policy. During the brief rule of Janata party from 1977-79, Israeli foreign minister Moshe Dyan made a secret visit to India.

Moreover, when sanctions on arms and technological transfers were imposed in India following the nuclear tests in 1998, Israel was willing to supply arms and weaponry during Kargil war of 1999. The crucial intelligence inputs and imagery provided by Israel eventually turned the tides in favor of India and Indian army could successfully hoist Indian flag on Kargil peak. During the Operation Parakram launched in 2002, Israel supplied hardware through special planes. But still India failed to publicly acknowledge Israeli partnership.

While Indira Gandhi followed her father’s footsteps, Rajiv Gandhi perturbed by Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear program and covert operations aspired to build relations with Israel and met Israeli officials openly. But real turn around in the Indo-Israeli relationships can be observed from 1992. The tantalizing closeness between India and Israel can be attributed to people to people connect. Judaism is one of the first foreign religions to enter India. India is the only country where Jews were never persecuted. Jews arrived on shores of India in different batches. India has the fourth largest population of Jews after Israel, Russia and Iran. There are six Jewish groups in India- Cochin Jews, Chennai Jews, Bene Israel (Maharashtrian) Jews, Baghdadi Jews, Bnei Menashe (Mizo and Kuki tribes) and Bene Epharim (Telugu Jews). After 1950, Jews of Indian origin migrated to Israel and settled in a place called Dimona which is now termed as Mini India. Also, several Indians travelled to Israel to obtain training in agriculture and community development courses. Above all, India secretly admired Israel for outstanding military prowess.

India and Israel, both democracies, are incessantly under threat of belligerent neighbors, that nurture, harbor and encourage terrorism. Despite being a victim of asymmetric warfare waged by its regional adversary, India remained a soft state. While India continues to silently bear the brunt of covert operations and terrorist attacks, Israel never winks.  The retributive missions (Operation Wrath of God to avenge the 1972 massacre), rescue operations (Operation Entebbe or thunderbolt, Operation Isotope), daring military mission and audacious cross-border raids against operatives that threatened national security continues to galvanize Indian public and military experts as well. 

India and Israel obtained independence from Britain within a gap of few months and both faced the anarchy, chaos and finally waged wars. But the scientific, economic and technological resurgence of Israel despite the lack of any natural resources is truly inspiring. Currently Indo-Israeli relations are based on the four pillars or areas of cooperation-agriculture, water conservation, solar energy and diary production. The military cooperation which was foundation for bilateral ties has now proportionately increased. Though both countries have congenial relations ever since 1992, Congress always tried to downplay ties with Jewish country when it is in power. However, defence cooperation remained intact. In fact, in 2009, Israel displaced Russia as the largest arms supplier to India. On the other hand, NDA regime eloquently displayed it camaraderie with Israel.  During the NDA regime, L. K. Advani became the first Indian minister to visit Israel in 2000. In 2003 Israel President Ariel Sharon visited India. By now it is evident that ascendancy of BJP is synonymous to greater visibility of bilateral ties. 

Gradually, there has been a swift policy change towards Israel, India stopped initiating anti-Israel resolutions based on the reevaluation that pro-Arab stance isn’t rewarded by the Arab World. Arab countries never backed India on Kashmir issue. OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) firmly stood by Pakistan and built support for Islamist terror operatives. India began to realize that if countries like Jordan could support Palestinian cause and carry on business with Israel, there is no point why India shouldn’t adopt the same policy.

After Narendra Modi’s spectacular victory in 2014, Indo-Israeli relations entered a new era. Bidding farewell to diffidence, India openly and enthusiastically engaged with the Jewish nation. In September,2014 along the sidelines of UN General Assembly sessions, Modi met his counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu who announced that “sky is the limit” for the bilateral ties. After Modi assumed power, India purchased $662 million worth arms (which is much greater than the total Israeli purchases in the last three years), successfully tested Barak-8 anti-missiles system. As the chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi actively forged ties with Israel for investment and technology cooperation. In 2006, Modi visited Israel upon invitation when countries like US denied visa to him for failing to control the 2002 riots. Hence it was widely speculated that Modi will infuse new energy into the bilateral ties. With NDA headed by Modi in power now, it is speculated that bilateral ties will be upswing. As expected, India abstained from voting at UNHRC on Israel’s Operation Protective Edge launched against Palestine. Similarly, it didn’t pass the resolution backed by Congress and Communist parties in Indian Parliament condemning Israel over conflict in Gaza. Unlike his predecessors, who repudiated Israeli partnership, Modi’s affirmative Israeli policy is not shy of openly endorsing friendship with the Jewish nation. Soon, rumors started making rounds that “India may end support to Palestine at UN”. Putting rest to rumors, MEA reiterated that “there is no change in India’s policy of extending traditionally strong support for the Palestinian cause while maintaining good relations with Israel”. To this end, India voted for a resolution on “the creation of database of companies operating within illegal Israeli settlements strengthening the Boycott, Divestment and Sanction (BDS), a global movement” (that steps up economic and political pressure on Israel to comply with stated goals of BDS). Thus, India enacted a balancing act.

In October 2015, President Pranab Mukherjee embarked on a three-nation state visit to Jordan, Palestine and Israel. He became the first Indian president to address the Knesset. This was followed by Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Israel and Palestine in January, where she stated that Indo-Israeli relations are of “utmost importance” to government of India. Later, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh visited Israel in September to bolster the Indo-Israeli collaboration in agriculture. Reports indicate that Prime Minister Modi will travel to Israel early next year.

President Rivlin’s Visit

Currently, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin carrying a message of friendship, arrived in New Delhi on a six-day visit on November 15^th. He is the first President to visit India in the past two decades. President Ezer Weizman was the last President to visit India in 1997. The visit marks the 25^th year of establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel. Accompanied by a large entourage of Israeli business men and heads of educational institutions, President Rivlin will visit Karnal, Chandigarh, Agra to oversee the functioning and progress of collaborative projects of both countries. In his final stopover, he will visit Mumbai Chabad house where six Jews were killed.

Reinforcing the growing engagement with both countries, in presence of Prime Minister Modi and President Rivlin, 10 MoU’s were exchanged. These included pacts to strengthen cooperation in agriculture, investment, education, water resource management, science and technology. The Indo-Israeli Agricultural Project led by government of India in partnership with MASHAV (Israel’s international development and cooperation agency) established 15 centers of excellence in agriculture across 9 states in India. Indian farmers had immensely benefitted from the Israeli technology and training in horticulture, micro-irrigation, cultivation, post-harvest management, orchard, canopy and nursery management. The bilateral trade between India and Israel has increased from $200 million in 1992 to $5.19 billion in 2011 and hovered around $4.5 billion ever since. Initially the trade in diamonds formed the bulk, slowly it diversified into sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, telecom and home security. India is the third largest Asian trade partner of Israel. Israel has taken a strategic decision to strengthen economic relations with China, Japan and India. FDI investment of Israel in India during 2000-2013 was $73.7 million. India and Israel space agencies revived contracts and enhanced cooperation in cyber security. Both countries are likely to seal a free trade agreement. Israel government is now keen on engaging in the Make in India initiative. Academic cooperation has also increased considerably and currently more than 10% of foreign exchange students in Israel are Indians.

Besides, these sectors, the bilateral relations between the countries are strengthened by military cooperation and defence purchases. President Rivlin during his visit agreed to intensify cooperation in combatting terrorism. Both countries have earlier constituted Joint Working Group in counter-terrorism, signed three agreements in Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters, Cooperation in Homeland and Public Security and Protection of Classified Material.

The statement “Love it or hate it but you cann’t ignore” aptly describes Israel. Jews across the World suffered the worst ever Holocaust. The hostility endured by Israel is unparalleled.  But now tectonic shifts in geopolitical alignments are shattering old narratives. The historic nuclear deal and subsequent menacing rise of Iran has changed the dynamics in the Middle East. Suddenly, there is a strategic recalibration of Israel, anti-Semitism or anti-Israeli narrative has disappeared. Saudi Arabia is now itching to court Israel, to take on its bitter rival Iran. Consequently, Palestinian issue has become a lost cause. Further, with rise of IS and eventual slipping over of the nemesis to Turkey, Erdogan buried hatchet with Israel and began restoring ties with Tel Aviv. With the discovery of natural gas reserves and oil fields off Israeli coast, its Mediterranean neighbors keen on building economic cooperation. With these propitious developments, Israel now donned the hat of energy superpower in the region. Countries are now vying to forge ties with Israel for its military acumen, innovation, technological expertise and finally as an energy exporter. Also, as Russia eyes to evolve as key players in the region, it is has become more conciliatory towards Israel. Of late, China has undertaken $1 billion worth Israel’s Ashdod port construction project under the Silk Road Economic Belt and extensively developed ties with start-ups and educational institutes in the Jewish state. Japan is not far behind, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, attended the Israel Innovation Forum with Japanese business in 2015 and got enthused by Israeli innovation and start-up culture. Even Baltics are fostering links with Israel. Not the least, the US, always had a trusted military ally in the US. Unfortunately, in India still old ideologies still hold a sway. Several organization including CPI-M(L) and AISA signed a petition to condem President Rivlin’s visit to India. Countries are now aspiring to engage with Israel for various reasons. Israel is no longer a pariah state as portrayed and envisaged by ideologists. India despite having traditional and strong links with Jews, overpowered by approach of appeasing Arab World allowed the bilateral ties to fester by failing to openly endorse the partnership. It is now 25 years since India established diplomatic links with the tiny country tucked in a corrupt and bellicose neighborhood. The dillydallying approach and lack of affirmative stance had its toll on the bilateral links. Time is ripe for strengthening of Indo-Israeli relations and Prime Minister must soon embark on a visit to Israel to emphatically assert India’s engagement.

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Nuclear Deal, Geostrategic Alliance buttress Indo-Japanese bilateral Ties

Modi’s bonhomie with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe touched new pinnacles of bilateral Indo-Japanese bilateral engagement during the third annual summit at Tokyo. Right from the days as Chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi had a special relationship with Japan. On his eclectic visit to Japan as Prime Minister of India in 2014 both sides have elevated the relationship to a Special Strategic and Global Partnership and launched India-Japan Investment Promotion Partnership wherein Japan promised to invest $35 billion over a period of five years. In 2015, Abe on during his India visit outlined a vision for a “deep, broad-based and action-oriented partnership” and deals worth 93,000 crores were signed. Thus, previous annual bilateral meets were high on theatrics and content. Despite the warmth and personal chemistry between the leaders, that added heft to the friendship, experts were skeptical since the nuclear negotiations overdue for the past six years failed to reach a conclusion. On his three-day long to Japan which concluded on Nov 12^th, Modi successfully heralded the conclusion of civil nuclear agreement between India and Japan.

Historic Indo-Japanese Relations

Indo-Japanese relations can be dated back to 7^th century AD. In the long illustrious association of over 1400 years, both countries were never adversaries and the bilateral relations were devoid of any ideological, territorial or cultural disputes. India established diplomatic ties with Japan in 1952 and ever since relations were strengthened by high level bilateral visits. Japan has been instrumental in revolutionizing the Indian automobile industry. In early 1980’s Suzuki Motor Corporation first invested in India and transformed the sector. This was followed by companies by Mitsubishi, Toyota and Nissan. Japan was one of the few countries which bailed out India during the balance of payment crisis in 1991. Eventually, the foundation for the modern-day partnership was laid by Prime Minister Mori who on his visit to India in 2000 envisioned Japan-India Global Partnership. In 2006, Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh and Shinzo Abe added new dimensions of cooperation and upgraded it to Global Strategic Partnership with a provision for annual Prime Ministerial Summits. In 2011, Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was concluded.

Japan is the third largest source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the past 15 years. But ironically, India’s trade ties with Japan have been fluctuating and lags that of China. A research paper authored by Peter Buckley and others on Indo-Japan economic ties indicated that raw materials shipped from India to Japan had facilitated Japan’s early industrialization. It says “by creating a direct shipping route between Mumbai and Kobe in 1883, a number of industrial conglomerates such as Mitsui and Mitsubishi had not only successfully challenged international competitors but also established trade between two countries”. By 1915, trade ties fluctuated and gained momentum only in early 1980’s but again they suffered when India conducted nuclear tests in 1998. Currently, India is keen on accelerating economic growth and aspires to reduce bilateral trade imbalances with China. To finance the needs of an emerging economy, experts believe that India must deeply engage with Japan.

Nuclear Deal

Nuclear deal with Japan, a country who suffered the brunt of nuclear attacks and strongly upholds the anti-nuclear test is indeed historic. Japan had reservations about inking a deal with non-signatory to NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty) and CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty). Japan acceding to a nuclear pact with India is thus truly significant. Japan’s move strengthened India’s pursuit for a place in NSG club at a time, when India’s inclusion is to be discussed at the upcoming NSG meet at Vienna. Unlike the civil nuclear deal with US, which was finalized in four different stages which included signing of 123 agreement in 2007, NSG clearance in 2008, reprocessing in 2010 and the final stage of signing administrative agreement in 2015, the pact with Japan has all the four stages rolled into one. While the details of the pact are not public, this treaty had laid foundation for bilateral cooperation in nuclear energy. The deal wasn’t easily cut and several rounds of negotiations preceded the pact. India with its impeccable nuclear record convinced Japan by harmonizing the export control system along the guidelines and annexes of NSG. The basic parameters of Indo-Japanese nuclear deal are like that of Indo-US deal where a termination clause does exist. As per the “termination and cessation clauses”, nuclear cooperation cease to exist the moment India conducts a nuclear test obviating compliance to NPT.

The stunning victory of Donald Trump, who made controversial remarks about recalibration of Sino-US ties has indeed portended well for India. While India and Japan had a sustained partnership with cooperation extending to several sectors, clinching of nuclear pact appeared to be difficult. An uncertain US foreign policy and burgeoning Chinese assertiveness propelled Japan to engage in a formidable geostrategic understanding with India, which is mutually beneficial.  This agreement augurs well for Abe, a revisionist leader who is now slowly revamping Japan’s defence cooperation and foreign policy. From economic stand point, nuclear deal is a win-win situation for both countries. The use of nuclear energy hit a new low in Japan post-Fukushima disaster in 2011 and the public outcry warranted restraints on the continuation of nuclear energy as single viable energy source. Japan’s ailing nuclear industry is in search of lucrative markets. By signing the deal, Japanese government can revive its domestic nuclear energy industry while India can reduce its reliance on the energy exports and pursue its lofty ambitions of clean energy. Burdened by increasing levels of pollution and burgeoning energy needs, India’s new energy policy is now focusing on non-fossil fuel energy resources with special emphasis on nuclear energy.

During his visit, Modi called upon Emperor Akihito, traveled to Kobe in Shinkansen bullet train to visit Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd manufacturing unit and addressed the Indian Diaspora. Aside, the landmark nuclear deal, both Prime Ministers agreed to expanded the ambit of cooperation in high technology, space, clean energy, infrastructure, smart cities, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, ICT, education and skills to deepen strategic engagement with Japan.

Other significant outcomes

 Agreement was reached on the sale of 12 US-2 amphibian aircrafts, that can increase India’s air surveillance capacities in Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. To accelerate the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail (MAHSR) the Ground Breaking Ceremony would be held in 2017. To enhance the Manufacturing Skill Transfer Promotion Program, it was decided that around 30,000 Indian personnel would be trained over the next 10 years through establishment of Japan-India Institutes for Manufacturing (JIM)s which would be set up in states of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat. Japan intends to support upgradation of ship-recycling units at Alang, Gujarat.

Strengthen cooperation in enhancing connectivity in North East India, building smart cities, smart islands and Japan Industrial Townships (JIT). To promote investment of Japanese companies in India, Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI) and Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) will finance up to 1.5 trillion Yen to implement Japan-India Make in India Special Finance Facility. Both sides agreed to work jointly and cooperatively with international community to promote development of industrial corridors and networks in Asia and Africa including the infrastructure development and connectivity of Chabahar port.

A MoU was signed between Gujarat State and Hyogo Prefecture (Shinkansen agreement). Other MoU’s were in sectors of infrastructure, sports, space cooperation and cultural exchange. Abe announced relaxation of visas for Indian students and pledged to expand the visa application sites to 20. Abe reaffirmed support to India’s entry into three nuclear regimes- NSG, Wassenaar Arrangement and Australian Group.

Prime Ministers affirmed faith in deepening bilateral security and defense cooperation through 2+2 dialogue, defence policy dialogue, military to military talk and coast coast guard cooperation. Both sides supported each other’s candidature into expanded UNSC. Under the India’s Act East Policy and Japan’s Enhanced Partnership for Quality Infrastructure leaders laid foundation for synergizing bilateral relationship. Deepening cooperation on global challenges like climate change, nuclear proliferation, countering terrorism, violent extremism, nuclear terrorism, maritime security, cyber security, UN reforms and maintaining rule based international order.

Geostrategic Front

China has been flustered by growing cooperation between India and Japan. Days before Modi’s visit to Japan, China’s state media began publishing articles warning India of inclement repercussions, if Modi supports Japan’s stance on SCS. An open ed of Global Times, Chinese State media said “India wouldn’t gain much by balancing China through Japan instead it would lead to more distrust between New Delhi and Beijing”. It added India will suffer great losses if India supports Japan’s stance on South China Sea (SCS). Unfazed by petulant Chinese warnings, Modi joined Abe in seeking peaceful resolution of disputes in SCS. They urged the parties “to resolve disputes through peaceful means without resorting to threat or use of force and exercise self-restraint” and asked them “to show utmost respect to UNCLOS”. They stressed the importance of resolving disputes by peaceful means “in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law including UNCLOS parties to resolve disputes”. Though China may not take India’s remarks kindly, India concurred with Japan in the Joint Statement.

Earlier, Japan invested heavily in China, eventually catalyzing its economic resurgence. Of late, rising anti-Japan sentiment, territorial disputes, declaration of Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over East China Sea by China and economic slowdown prompted Japanese companies to shift bases to other ASEAN countries under Plus One Strategy. Considering the geopolitical factors and economic vantage, Japanese companies have shifted bases and are now investing in ASEAN countries. By reaffirming interest in enhancing cooperation in trade, infrastructure development and connectivity an interest shared by both sides, Modi hit the right notes. In its effort to emerge as a key player, India has certainly found a reliable partner in Japan.

China is visibly ruffled by the deepening of cooperation between India and Japan in various areas which undeniably has a greater geostrategic implication. Modi through his proactive outreach under Act East policy made it amply clear that India is trying to counterbalance China. Beijing is now wary of the Strategic diamond or the Asian Security Diamond, unveiled by Shinzo Abe in response to China’s growing assertiveness and strategic maritime penetrance. Abe in his address to Indian Parliament in 2007 spoke of Confluence of Seas indicating that “safety and security of Western Pacific and Indian Ocean were indivisible and that Japan and India should take lead in conjunction with like-minded nations to ensure maritime security of what is now jointly referred as the Indo Pacific Asia”. He envisaged a maritime cooperation between Japan, India, Australia and US state of Hawaii. China perceives this as a Democratic Security Diamond targeted to encircle it. With US under the unpredictable President Trump, might in every likelihood withdraw from Obama’s Asia pivot. Thus, to counterbalance the growing assertiveness of China in Asia, India and Japan should have formidable understanding and cooperation. In the meanwhile, China shouldn’t necessarily raise alarm over the deepening strategic ties between India and Japan as India approach has never been about containment.

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India-UK trade ties muddled by immigration issues

UK Prime Minister Theresa May on her three day visit to India attempted to reinvigorate Post-Brexit trade ties with India. The visit was particularly significant since it is May’s first bilateral to a country outside European Union after taking over as the Prime Minister of UK. Wadding through the challenging road of Brexit, Britain was determined to forge close diplomatic and economic relations with countries outside the EU. Reiterating Britain’s commitment to free trade, May called for strengthening bilateral trade relations.

Post-Brexit political establishment vouched to forge ties with Common Wealth Nations. Paradoxically, May resorted to hard bargaining wherein, she wanted to have maximum leverage from trade ties but willed to impose tough restrictions on visas to Indians. May was keen on issuing preferential visas to High Net Worth Individuals in exchange for investments. May in her six year, long stint as the Home Secretary, pursued a hardline on immigration policy. During her tenure, Home Department resorted to nasty tricks of hiring vans carrying “Go Home” banners which would tour Indian-dominated areas targeting the illegal migrants. She was also instrumental in stiffening immigration laws. Earlier UK was one of the favored destination of India students for higher studies. The stringent immigration policies like sharp increase in visa fees, denying right to work for graduates after finishing degrees have deterred Indian students. Even the study visas to Indian nationals have come down steadily from 68,238 in 2010 to 11,864 by 2015. Universities have registered 35% decline in Indian students. Still May defiantly argued for cutting down the number of foreign students altogether. May’s visit comes at a time when government officially raised the annual salary thresholds from £20,000 to £30,000, further sealing the prospects of people to people movement. Indian business executives are seriously perplexed with these conflicting signals. In a drive to bring down the net immigration down, Britain is now all set to scrutinize the applications of Indian students. This approach might prove counterproductive to UK’s ambitions of reversing the vagaries of economical debacles entailed by the Brexit. India is the second largest global creator of jobs (created over 1,10,000 jobs in UK) and the third largest source of FDI. As a matter of fact, India-EU agreement was paralyzed by immigration issues.

Indo-UK bilateral relationship was elevated to Strategic Partnership in 2004 and was strengthened in 2010 by Prime Minister Cameron who laid foundation for an Enhanced Partnership for future. Cameron infused momentum into bilateral relations and made congruent efforts to change the traditional approach of Britain towards India, which was a former colony. Bilateral ties reached a crescendo when Prime Minister Modi on his visit to UK signed deals worth £9 billion last year before Brexit. Brexit has changed the atmospherics of the trade investments. Britain staring at the prospect of losing access to European Markets is keenly looking forward to forge business ties with emerging markets and India as the fastest growing emerging market is an obvious choice. India in turn hopes to gain from Britain, leaving the EU.

On her visit, Prime Minister Modi and May jointly inaugurated the Indo-UK Tech Summit at New Delhi hosted by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and Department of Science and Technology (DST). Both leaders reiterated that India and UK are natural partners, for the foundation of bilateral relationships are strengthened by shared history, shared connections and shared values.  Modi then stressed on the issue of visas for students. He said “Education is important for our students and will define our engagement in shared partnership. We must therefore encourage greater mobility and participation of young people in education and research opportunities”. In reply May who was keen on satisfying the voters back in UK by safely guarding Britain’s borders didn’t blink. Instead she announced easier “Registered Travellers Scheme” for Indian businessmen and onsite Indian workers. She emphasized that the flexibility with visas for Indians solely depended on “speed and volume of the return of Indians with no rights to remain”. Indian officials later clarified that India would indeed take back people who are entitled to but not all the people in the list of “overstaying migrants”. She said “We want to attract more Indian businesses to UK, which is why it is right to offer Indian business executives a world-class visa service tailored to their needs”. Due to disagreement over visas, her delegation failed to arrange a meeting with high-level officials of Tata Group. Around 4000 workers at Tata steel plant, Port Talbot, South Wales face an uncertain future as the company has announced to sell all or part of the business.

UK is the largest G20 investor in India and to accelerate trade ties, a “working group” was set up. Business deals worth over £1 billion were signed. May announced that India plans to list four “masala bonds” of £600million in London next three months. Both sides signed MoU for increasing cooperation in ease of doing business and intellectual property rights. India asked UK to expedite the extradition of 57 people including Vijay Mallya and the Christina Michel, alleged middleman in Augusta Westland case. Britain pledged to invest £160 million across 75 start-up ventures to create jobs and additional £20 million for start-up India venture capital fund. May complimented India International Solar Alliance (ISA) initiative and expressed UK’s intention to join the alliance. Both leaders announced new research partnerships £80 million including a new Joint Strategic Group on Anti-Microbial Resistance (AMR). They launched India-UK Clean Energy R&D center with focus on solar energy storage and integration with joint investment of £10 million. Both sides tasked the Defence Consultative Group (DCG) to take lead in charting areas for enhancing defence cooperation.

May extended support to India’s pitch for permanent membership at extended UNSC and NSG membership. Both sides agreed to deepen cooperation on countering terrorism, radicalization, violet extremism and cyber security. She condemned 26/11 and terror attacks on Uri and reiterated that Pakistan must bring perpetrators of the attacks to justice. India welcomed UK- initiated joint statement on Preventing Violent Extremism launched at Global Countering Terrorism Forum at New York.

Though May stressed that India shouldn’t wait for the Brexit to complete for stepping up trade, India is more cautious. Just days before her visit to India, May lost court case over Parliament’s role in Brexit. While May was in tearing hurry to initiate the process of leaving EU, court ordained her to consult Parliament before starting any negotiations. She fears this might slowdown and eventually dilute her plans. Back home £4 billion worth curry industry described May’s visit to India as “shambolic” and criticized her hardline stand on immigration as “damaging” to UK’s economy. Unlike her predecessor Cameron, who kowtowed to China, May first visited Delhi to change that image. But sadly her inclement immigration stance muddled it all. 

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Trump’s Triumph: Trumping Predictions

Trouncing the poll predictions, Donald John Trump was elected as the 45^th President of United States. The stunning outcome of Trump’s triumph over the formidable secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton has confounded pollsters and political pundits. Despite the overwhelming support of the left-dominated liberal media and political establishment, Trump managed to overshadow the unique accomplishments of Clinton. From the beginning Hillary camp began to receive massive support from unexpected corners which included artists, Holly Wood Stars. As elections neared, President Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden added heft with electrifying appeals. American media too widely favored the Democrat camp. On the contrary, Republican camp was almost deserted. Top leaders were unwilling to endorse Trump’s candidature for his insinuating remarks against women, Muslims, Latinos, African-American and Hispanics. Trump had to woo American voters single-handedly. Amidst the ruckus of disparaging comments and open rebuke of from electorate media failed to hear the voices that desperately wanted a change of establishment. Hence the astounding victory of the real-estate dealer turned business man and TV celebrity with no government or military experience have left the poll pundits disillusioned. Except for IBD/TIPP and LA Times, all others failed to prognosticate the election outcome. While the dubious profile of Trump certainly pales in comparison to the astute statesmanship of Clinton, the inability to listen to the silent majority has come as a rude shock.

Incidentally, the Silent majority are deeply miffed by the establishment and the elitist Washington clout. The discontent and frustration has been slowly building up. Trump’s outreach to the commoners of Make America Great Again as an outsider found consonance. On the contrary, Hillary’s image as an insider with a message of “Stronger Together” and projecting herself as a wife, mother and grandmother hardly stuck any cord. While the upwardly mobile and educated, women were enthused. Gender became an irrelevant issue to the American electorate. The prospect of having first women President, hardly mattered to them. Aside, the brewing anti-establishment sentiment had crippled Hillary’s chances of making it to the White House. Election results shows that states dominated by the Urban masses, elite and superrich were pocketed by Democrats. The putative Steel Belt/ Rust Belt straddling from the New York and traversing to the west through Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin shifted their allegiances. The industrial heartland, bordering the Great Lakes was seat of manufacturing till the 90’s. Automation. Liberalisation of foreign trade policies and availability of the cheap labor in far west resulted led to relocation of industries. Soon jobs and opportunities have disappeared, people are now restive transforming the region into a rustic belt.  Fed up by the policies that have hurt their employment and aggrieved by loss of businesses, people voted to Trump, whose campaign was centered around themes of “anti-globalization and anti-trade”. The unexpected outcome of the US Presidential elections thus finds congruence with the stunning verdict of Brexit.  

Indeed, Brexit vote and US presidential elections rooted on the basic premise that outsiders are making deep making inroads into their cozy league resonated well with people. A hardline stance on immigration adopted by the United Kingdom Independent Party (UKIP) in Britain and Republican nominee Trump was welcomed both by country side Brits and Americans keenly. People and especially the blue-collar workers are now feeling threatened by globalization and growing ethnic minorities. They are averse to the idea of free trade and international economic integration eagerly pushed by the political establishments. Media cozying up in Ivory Towers and ensconced in the liberal values divested of ground realities grossly failed in fathoming the anger and frustration of the less-educated rural voters. Also, since Left-Liberal media would ridicule and mock at the choice of the candidate, many voters refrained from publicly citing their preference.

Unfortunately, Hillary Clinton will become the first Presidential candidate to have lost an election despite winning the popular vote since Al Gore lost to George W Bush in 2000. Till now in US Presidential history three candidates Andrew Jackson, Samuel Tilden and Grover Cleveland in 19^th century lost elections but won popular vote in 19^th Century.

Emerging victorious after the most bitter elections ever fought, it cannot be “business as usual” for Trump. Though Trump irked several topnotch Republican leaders during campaign, stunning success, compelled them to toe in line. Republican party swept off Democrats completely by not only having its Presidential candidate but regained control over both houses of Congress. This will strengthen Trump’s position on foreign policies.

Like the colossal shock of Brexit verdict that dramatically overturned the financial markets, Trump’s victory was marked by a sudden slump in Dow Jones. Trump’s skepticism towards US trade pacts, specifically the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) resulted in accruing initial losses to US dollar and Mexican Peso. While US stock markets recovered following reassuring remarks by Trump in Presidential speech volatility might prevail and the long expected rate hikes might plague American markets. As expected, Trump’s call for severe restrictions on immigration, huge tax cuts on super rich, has cast shadow on the markets. Now Trump’s shock victory is sparking protests on streets. While Trump in his public address after the elections sounded, conciliatory and pledged to work together. But this may not allay the fears of anti-Trump activists. Even nations who were swept off by the poll predictions are now seriously reworking their approach towards US.  Trump’s victory is envisaged as the rise of the right wing. On the contrary in the post globalization world, the ever-widening inequities, growing unemployment and dearth of opportunities has compelled people to aspire for closed boundaries. So, it is no longer a right versus left ideological rift but rather a preference for closed economies as opposed to 21^st century phenomenon of open markets. Stunning outcomes of election results in various nation at the turn of century is an out lash against globalization.

While the election raised several concerns among nations owing to the unpredictability and uncertainty of Trump, India is least dismayed. All through his campaign, Trump held India in good regard and described himself as big fan of India in one of the election rallies at New Jersey.  Certainly, India would look forward to deepening with the US. But his anti-immigration rhetoric continues to dismay Indian businessmen.

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Demonetization of Rs 500 and Rs 1000: The Ultimate Brahmastra on Parallel Economy

In an unprecedented move, Prime Minister Modi on his first televised address to nation declared a full-blown war on the parallel economy by demonetizing high value currency notes Rs 500 and Rs 1000. The move which will come into effect after the midnight of November 8^th can be the ultimate panacea against scourge of terrorism, black money, counterfeit currency and corruption. The multiheaded monster of parallel economy rooted through the black money had crippled the growth of Indian economy. As per World Bank estimates in 2010, the parallel economy in India rose from 20.7% of GDP in 1999 rose to 23.2% in 2007. Parallel economy besides corroding the vital economic indicators like inflation, widens the income inequalities, throttles the government policy making and deprives the country of the valuable tax revenues which can be invested in welfare and development of the country.

The press release issued by the Ministry of finance noted that the decision was taken “with a view to curbing the financing of terrorism through the proceeds of the Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) and use of such funds for subversive activities such as espionage, smuggling of arms, drugs and other contrabands into India and for eliminating black money which casts a long shadow of parallel economy on our real economy”. For long the subversive channels and the sponsors of terrorism has availed many channels to pump in FICN that has facilitated the financing of terrorism and drug trafficking. The press note also indicates that higher denominations which are easy to carry and circulate have been infused into the country in large amounts to derail the Indian economy. Law enforcement agencies have been recovering stashes of the counterfeit notes. It was observed that while the total number of bank notes in circulation rose by 40% between 2011 and 2016, spike in the Rs 500 denomination was 76% and that of Rs 1000 was 109% reflecting the humongous scale of circulation of counterfeit notes in India. Since the common man could barely make out difference between the genuine notes and fake notes, this FICN had become an indispensable disruptive tool for the anti-nationals especially for those operating from across the border.

After assuming power, Modi government had relentlessly toiled to curb the menace of black money. So far, Modi government had instituted several measures and these include- constituting Supreme Court monitored SIT ( Special Investigation Team) on black money; renegotiation of tax treaties and automatic information exchange agreements with countries like Switzerland and Mauritius; rolled in The Black Money and Imposition of Tax Act; 2015 for foreign black money; Income Declaration Scheme for unearthing the domestic black money; penalty on real estate transactions for cash exceeding Rs 20,000; nominal 1% tax collection at source on purchases above Rs 2,00,000, amending Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement between India and Mauritius & India and Cyprus  and amending benami transactions bill. Besides, Modi during in his interview to Times Now has warned the tax evaders to come clean. Despite the above measures, Modi government was incessantly targeted for failing to act on curbing black money. Reiterating his irresolute commitment, Modi delivered a master stroke to curtail the parallel economy. While the Old High Denomination Notes are scrapped, to facilitate easy storage new Rs 500 and Rs 2000 with advanced security features are introduced.

Demonetization of high denomination notes is not new to India. Highest denomination notes ever printed by Reserve Bank of India were Rs 10,000 in 1938 and again in 1954 which were subsequently demonetized in January 1946 and in 1978 respectively. In fact, in 1978 notes of Rs 1000, Rs 5000 and Rs 10000 denomination were demonetized. Rs 1000 note made a comeback in November 2000 and Rs 500 was introduced in 1987. Indeed, Rs 2000 are for the first time introduced by the present government. The new design is part of the Mahatma Gandhi (new) series and has a motif of Mangalyaan on the reverse side. Even the new series of Rs 500 with the image of the heritage site Red Fort comes with enhanced security features and both Rs 500 and Rs 2000 are braille compliant.

Till now political parties have made loud proclamations about annihilating the menace of corruption but none had ever displayed the conviction and commitment. With this historic courageous move, Modi blew a death knell on black money, terrorism and corruption. While business leaders, economists, bankers and industrialists welcomed the move and pronounced it as a ‘gamechanger’, Politicians have shied away from openly congratulating and commending the bold initiative. This move was overwhelmingly embraced by the middle class, salaried people who constitute the huge chunk of the tax payers in India. It is a great moral booster for all the honest tax payers. Besides, curbing the black money, it will strengthen rupee which will augur well for the economy. It will have a deflatory impact in general and more specifically on the real estate business and homes will become affordable. The artificial bubble of escalatory pricing prevailing in real estate will burst. This major structural change would help in putting necessary ecosystem in place for boosting the economy. India’s macroeconomic indices will be revitalized. Economy will slowly register an increase in cashless transactions, savings would increase and interest rates will come down. Thus, substantial growth can be attained. To facilitate cashless transactions, RBI had launched a payment app, Unified Payment Interface (UPI) wherein cash can be instantly transferred to the sender. Unlike other e-transfers, which mandates entry of the card no, CVV code, password etc., this app just requires UPI id of the beneficiary.

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US Presidential Election’s October Surprise

After the final Presidential debate, several news agencies declared Hillary Clinton as the winner. With two major self-goals- “nasty woman” jibe and refusal to accept election outcome, Republican Candidate Donald Trump squandered an opportunity to make big gains. Congruently, major surveys predicted an emphatic victory for Clinton giving her six-point lead. Democrats eventually gained an unassailable lead of 12 point over Trump indicating that Clinton is just close to making a history. But things changed unpredictably with latest polls declaring that Trump leads Clinton by one point.

The sharp changes causing spontaneous changes in the poll outcomes of the US presidential elections in political jargon often termed October Surprise till now had potentially influenced the election outcomes. Records indicate that so far this phenomenon has affected the Presidential elections for seven times. Currently, the rather unpredictable development of FBI director James Comey informing the Congress about reopening of investigation of Clinton’s emails has spurred a new row. FBI recovered some emails related to investigation of Clinton’s personal server on the laptop of Clinton’s close aide Huma Adebin’s estranged husband, Anthony Weiner. Weiner was under FBI investigation for allegedly sexting illicit messages to a 15-year girl.  FBI found thousands of Abedin’s emails from Weiner’s laptop. Weiner ran for the post of New York in 2013 lost the contest because he was found sending lewd messages to women using Carlos Danger moniker online. Adebin has been a close associate of Clinton ever since she was first assigned as an intern to her at White House. With the latest revelations, many Democrats are questioning Clinton’s decision of conferring a plum post of White Post Chief of staff to Adebin. Abedin besides carrying the dubious reputation of pedophile husband has her own set of controversies to justify. She worked as the assistant editor of a radical Muslim periodical, Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs which opposes women’s rights and blaming US responsible for 9/11 from 1996 to 2008. Her name was recently removed from the editorial board.

Abedin works under her mother Saleha Abedin who is the editor-in-chief of the journal and vociferously condemns the much-touted postulates of Clinton who appealed Women’s rights are human rights at the UN Women’s Conference at Beijing in 1995. Saleha contested Clinton’s stand terming it as “very aggressive and radically feminist agenda”. Besides rationalizing domestic abuse, Saleha travels around the World with the message that “Empowerment of Women does more harm than benefit the cause of women or their relations with men. By placing women in the care and protection of me and by making women responsible for those under her charge, Islamic values generate a sense of compassion in human and family relations”. She observed that “the very central role women play in procreation, child-raising and home making, Islam places the economic responsibility of supporting the family primarily on the male members”. While views of Saleha has nothing to do with Clinton, Abedin’s casual acknowledgment of her mother’s campaign as normal is worrying. In 2010, Abedin made Clinton who was then secretary of State to address a gathering alongside her mother in Jeddah where she meekly responded for Women’s liberation. With this, Clinton’s propaganda of Championing for women’s rights too falls flat.  Now five FBI field offices are probing the Clinton Foundation, hailed for rendering phenomenal services. The records indicate that its biggest donors are the most oppressive regimes of the World- Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Brunei. Acceptance of funds from the countries with records of human rights violations and oppression of women and endorsement of Ultra-orthodox doctrines cast doubts on Clinton’s attributes. FBI’s announcement just 11-days ahead of election, in the light of above issues have a greater bearing. It might undoubtedly dent Clinton’s creditability among American voters who already consider her corrupt.

Clinton who was facing already facing charges for using family’s private server for official communication as a Secretary of State. Following the revelations in March 2015, a probe was initiated since it was opined that it was a violation of Department’s Protocols and Procedures. FBI found that several communications marked as classified were passed on through “unclassified systems”. Mishandling of official documents is considered a federal crime.  This entire controversy came into lime light during her election campaign for her involvement in 2012 Benghazi attack. By June 2016, FBI concluded the investigation and remarked that Clinton was “extremely careless” in handling the official documents. All through the course of investigation Clinton fumbled a lot which hit her reputation. Though FBI exonerated her of all charges since they failed to obtain any evidence of hacking of her account, lack of transparency raised concerns. Her attempts to hid the pneumonia in a way created an impression that she was lying. By the end of September, Trump was well-ahead of Clinton when fortunes suddenly changed for democratic camp with the release of Trump’s audiotapes containing lewd comments about women. This down turn of GOP culminated in mass defection of several Republicans. His popularity plummeted after 9 women alleged he had sexually assaulted them previously. This was soon followed by the final presidential debate where Clinton scored brownie points and emerged as the front runner for POTUS. Ironically, Donald Trump with his venomous remarks about women, Latinos, Muslims, African-Americans and disabled have undermined the pluralist nature of the oldest democracy. Besides his defiance in releasing his tax returns, charges of financial bungling and the controversial university in his name earned his severe censure and prosecution. His open call for hacking of Clinton’s emails, Russian connections, denouncement of US’s historical ties with allies, Xenophobia and charges of sexual assaults made his the most undesirable Presidential nominee.

The October Surprise in the form of FBI reinvestigation of Clinton’s Email gate is believed to change the trajectory of the popular vote. While Clinton is maintaining a “statesman-like poise” and remained tight-lipped on FBI reopening investigation, experts believe that damage has been done. History offers a guide to fathom the influence of the October Surprise. Experts are goaded to believe if October Surprises are engineered to tip victory in favor of a candidate. Bill Clinton famously pulled off a victory over George H.W. Bush after Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh’s indictment of Reagan’s Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger on October 30^th 1992 over Iran-Contra affair. On the speculation that Bush knew something about the arms for hostage exchange arrangement, Bill Clinton decimated Bush and Ross Perot in elections. In 2012, Barack Obama won the closely contested race against Mitt Romney when a video surfaced where Romney was found saying that 47% of Americans don’t pay taxes and consider themselves as victims. Back in 2008 when Obama had slim chance of making it to White House, Lehman Brother’s went bankrupt. The announcement of 159,000 Americans losing jobs and Industrial average falling by 18% in first week of October triggered panic. Voters attributing the crisis to Republicans voted Obama. In 2004, Osama Bin Laden’s video taunting Bush and issuing threats to US aptly changed the voter tide in favor of Bush assured to keep American safe. Incidentally, John Kerry who initially made rapid gains on voter anger lost the race.

Back in 2000, a video tape appeared just five days before election with news of George W Bush’s arrest in 1976 for drunken driving. Bush supporters immediately alleged that Democrats practiced dirty politics and leaked the video to damage Bush campaign. Al Gore denied it. In this closest fought election in American history, Gore was leading with 500,000 popular vote. But Supreme Court halted a recount of disputed ballots in Florida and handed over the votes to Bush. In 1980, Jimmy Carter was negotiating release of 52 US hostages in Iran for over a year. It later emerged that rival Ronald Reagan with his aides managed to stall the release of hostages before elections. Carter lost to Reagan in election and hostages were released on the day of his swearing-in. In 1972 to secure reelection, Richard Nixon authorized secretary of state Henry Kissinger to announce on Oct 26 that “Peace is at Hand” in Vietnam to trounce the Democrat George Mc Govern. In 1968 few days before election Lyndon Johnson ordered to stop all US bombings of North Vietnam anticipating rich dividends for democratic nominee Hubert Humphrey but Richard Nixon won convincingly. October Surprises crucially changed the trajectory of the electoral choices.

US presidential elections are watched keenly world over for the great bearing it has on the rest of the World. 2016 US Presidential Elections is reckoned for its unprecedented levels of personal abuse and controversies has severely polarized the electorate. With the contest now reduced to electing from among the two most uninspiring personalities, the election has already lost its sheen and relevance. It is no understatement to say that American voters are now forced to choose between devil and deep sea. Since both the candidates would inevitably cast a spell of uninspiring aura in the realms of American history.

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Time to be Tough with China

Even before the ink of the Goa declaration dried, Chinese made a drastic U-turn in striking down Prime Minister Modi’s reference to Pakistan as “Mothership of terror”. By glaringly, hyphenating India and Pakistan as victims of terror, China deliberately down played Indian concerns. While China’s volte-face on issues crucial to India are not new, its tacit support is emboldening Pakistan’s unrelenting pursuit of inflicting damage to India. With cross-order terrorism and unceasing infiltration across LoC reaching newer heights, China’s reluctance to incorporate cross-border terrorism perpetrated by Pakistan in the Goa Declaration validates its complicity. Prime Minister Modi in a bid to propel India’s growth trajectory invested tremendous efforts in resurrecting ties with Pakistan and China in the last two years. But both neighbors, the thickest of friends, overpowered by antipathy towards India had responded inimically. China is now propping up Pakistan to keep India preoccupied with unrest and cross border tensions so that New Delhi’s ambitions of emerging as a potential regional counter balance to Beijing are thwarted.

Propping up Pakistan

In recent years, China is currently luxuriating in the huge bilateral trade deficit with India largely in its favor.  While ensuring its economic and trade investment interests are least hurt Beijing is draining Indian energies by buttressing Pakistan. With Pakistan factor looming large Modi met President Xi Jinping along the margins of BRICS 2016 summit. China’s implacable attitude and obduracy are now denting Indian interests. China’s rigidity in stalling India’s NSG membership despite repeated pleas for consideration at various levels and contentious vetoing of ban on Masood Azhar by the UNSC 1267 Sanctions committee have irked India. On September 30^th, China extended technical hold on proposed UN sanctions on Azhar. It was the 5^th time China tried to block India’s UN resolution since September 2014. China’s has also paralyzed Indian efforts to proscribe United Jehad Council chief Syed Salahuddin, the principal orchestrator of Kashmir insurgency. It shielded Pakistan from censure for freeing LeT commander Lakhvi and for averring on probing sources of finance to Hafiz Saeed, master mind of 26/11. All these attempts unequivocally make China complicit in Pakistan’s terror strikes which left 19 soldiers recently at Uri. While nations defended India’s right to self-defense for launching surgical strikes on terror launch pads across LoC, China supported Pakistan’s position on Kashmir and raised doubts about Indian claims of strikes. It expressed concerns over India’s decision to completely seal the western border by 2018. China’s decision to block the tributary of Brahmaputra, Xiabu originating in Tibet from flowing into India citing construction of the most expensive Lalho hydroelectric power project undermining the interests of the lower riparian states has now sparked new tensions.

Modi in a bid to end the diplomatic unease, during his bilateral talks with Xi at Goa, raised several issues where combatting terrorism dominated the agenda. While Modi tweeted, that talks were fruitful, China’s quick reversal of stand on terror clearly indicated that Beijing connives Pakistan perfidy. As opposed to its much-touted peaceful rise policy, China’s egregious and ambitious accretion is tremendously changing global geopolitics. The rapid rise of China has perceptibly changed the dynamics of the region. China’s footprint is growing in the subcontinent eventually boxing India. With its deep pockets, China foreclosed India’s efforts of strengthening trade and bilateral relations with its neighbors. China’s expanding presence in India’s immediate vicinity is now truly intimidating. Before landing in Goa for the BRICS summit, President Xi in his brief stopover at Dhaka extended $25 billion credit line which pales India’s $2 billion pledged by Modi last year. China has carefully revived Sonadia port project with Bangladesh. Apart from the Colombo port, Hambantota port of Sri Lanka, this Bangladesh’s port off the Bay of Bengal coast, suffices China’s aspirations of gaining access to India’s sphere of influence. China’s overwhelming influence in Maldives is well documented. By earning Afghanistan’s confidence through arms delivery and military aid, China is slowly roping in India’s traditional friend. Recently, China has pledged Nepal to modernize Army and disaster management enhanced security cooperation. A plausible agreement over extension of the rail line between Xigaze (Tibet) to Nepal border under Trans-Himalayan Railways connectivity reinforces penetrating influence of China in India’s backyard.  With its iron brother, Pakistan, China is already escalating trouble in India. All these developments forebode India’s notion of South Asia and India Ocean as its natural sphere of influence.

Dynamic Strategic Alignments

Burgeoning hostilities between the West and Russia are forcing Moscow to enter Chinese orbit. China is also emerging as an indispensable partner of Russia for development in Arctic Region. In fact, Russia under China’s duress omitted any references to Pakistan based or cross-border terrorism or state-sponsored terror in Goa declaration. It must be remembered that China’s implicit leverage to North Korea flared up tensions in North Asia. In the meanwhile, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte gesture of extending hand of friendship to China downgrading military ties with US have come as shot in arm for Chinese claims in SCS. Addressing officials in Beijing, Duterte had perceptibly mellowed Philippines position on Scarborough Shoal and enthusiastically reached a consensus on jointly exploration of resources in South China Sea (SCS). Beijing suitably rewarded Duterte’s announcement of separation from US both militarily and economically on its turf by pledging $13.5 billion deals to Philippines. Earlier in 2012, Philippines pulled up China for taking control over Scarborough Shoal to International Court of Justice, Hague. Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) thrashing claims of China over territorial formations upheld Philippines claims. Disconcerted China refused to accept the judgement inviting the censure of the West. Though China’s smaller ASEAN neighbors in SCS are miffed by Chinese claims, ASEAN meet failed to issue a statement on SCS as the resolution was blocked by Cambodia. Reciprocating Cambodia’s support China generously signed over 30 cooperative agreements in areas of agriculture, infrastructure, investment and economy. Besides, promising $600 million in aid towards country’s election, health and education. Swelling Chinese hegemony and its unprecedented penetration into various regions clearly reflects its veritable obsession to wield power.

China’s efforts to destabilize India

Within South Asia region, while the material indices gap between India and Pakistan are at all time high with Indian GDP now almost 10 times that of Pakistan, Chinese backing invigorates Islamabad to challenge India’s influence. As a matter of fact, a debt-ridden Pakistan gives a greater leeway to China to strategically penetrate it. India’s concerns of CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) passing through its legitimate territory are truly genuine. While China made rapid forays into Indian territory way back in 1970’s through construction of Karakoram Highway, now under the ruse of CPEC, China is deploying troops in Gilgit-Baltistan region. China had indeed left no stone unturned to destabilize India. Evidences suggests that China dispatches arms to Indian rebels through Myanmar. China intermittently launches cyber-attacks and hacks strategically important Indian portals. It tried every trick in book to keep India off-balance to capitalize on the asymmetrical advantages. China is now contemplating on use of water as political tool. Before Communist regime China had 22 dams now it has over 85,000 dams both big and small. Beijing known for its infrastructure building prowess is now planning to construct 14 dams along Brahmaputra. It has targeted rivers originating in Tibet and Xinjiang region- Arun, Indus, Sutlej, Irtysh, Illy Amur and Salween but flowing into India, Nepal, Kazakhstan, Russia and Myanmar. China which has already the water map of the region is now shying away from playing water politics if needed. Recent announcement of Renminbi’s inclusion in the elite global reserve currency club is now boding well for growing China’s economic clout. Aside, its rapid rise now Chinese ideology is slowly becoming inimical to India’s domestic arena. Beijing’s objections to US Ambassador Richard Verma’s visit to attend the Tawang festival at Arunachal Pradesh recently demonstrates China’s obstinacy towards false territorial claims.

Burgeoning Congeniality between Communists and Islamists

Waving of the Chinese and Pakistani flag in Kashmir Valley after the Friday prayers coinciding with President Xi’s visit to India is an alarming development. Pakistan flags have made their entry into the valley several decades back. But the appearance of Chinese flags as a solidarity is indeed a dangerous precedent. While the new development is orchestrated by Pakistan, it testimonies growing congeniality of Jihadists and Communists. With Communists and Jihadists working hand in glove in the Valley why would China not veto India’s attempts to ban Azhar at the UN.  In February 2016, India witnessed brewing anti-national rhetoric with JNU at the helm of affairs heralding a new moment of fondness between Islamists and Communists. Now, after the Uri attacks, the indifferent response of Communist lobbies towards India’s retaliatory surgical strikes and the overdrive pushing India for talks with Pakistan reflects the obvious. Arrest of over 10 Naxalites by the ATS (Anti-Terrorism Squad) in Noida, planning attacks in Delhi couple of days back sums it all. Clearly, a coordinated network of anti-nationals is turning the nation into asunder. Till now India media has significant chunk of Pakistan sympathizers, now China baiters are making their way into main stream media unabashedly playing a pro-China card. This quick turn of events is truly alarming and demands immediate attention of various strata of Indian administration.

Way Forward

Clearly apart from the border disputes, India and China have several outstanding issues to sort out.  An economically strong and resilient India can alone circumvent overwhelming influence of China. The panacea of all strategic aliments afflicting India lies in sturdy economic growth and development. India in its attempts to tame the prodigal Dragon must press the right levers of Tibet and Xinjiang to its advantage. Earlier this year, India withdrew visa issued to Uighur activist Dolkun Isa for the fear of political reprisals. But now, India displayed some mettle by consenting to allow Dalai Lama visit Arunachal Pradesh scheduled for next year March.  Despite India’s largesse towards China in recommending it for the UNSC permanent membership and later helping it get entry into WTO, China never reciprocated. China is now building several multilaterals institutions like Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), New Development Bank and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). India lent its support to all these frameworks. In return, China never supported India’s bid for an extended UNSC, stalled NSG membership, vetoed Azhar’s ban, capitalized on Indo-Pakistan disputes and propped up Pakistan to expedite its anti-India agenda. China unequivocally questions India’s growing closeness with US invoking threat of regional imbalances even as it continues to extend its tentacles into India’s neighborhood. With every passing year, bilateral trade is drifting largely in favor of China reducing India to a supplier of raw materials and dump yard for low quality Chinese products. India must evolve a policy whereby trade deficits can be reduced. With potential to grow faster and by providing free access to 1.3 billion strong markets India can’t afford to remain hamstrung. While Beijing voices concerns about Indo-Vietnam collaboration to explore oil in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone in SCS, Delhi is expected to remain as mute spectator even as China explores India’s legitimate territory for economic gains. Delhi should now support Pakistan lawmakers who expressed concerns over CPEC as “another East India Company in offing” and worried that CPEC is now aided by local financing instead of Chinese funding. China is capitalizing on Indian deficiencies. Delhi has a poor reputation of delaying foreign projects. India should shed the laggard image and proactively engage with neighboring countries in collaborative projects assuring timely completion of projects. Alternatively, it can competitively bid for infrastructure projects in immediate neighborhood with like-minded partners like Japan. Above all, it is time to hone diplomatic skills invoking the incisive Chanakya’s Raja Mandala theory of hard diplomacy and steer the economy by implementing tough economic reforms.

Despicable act of burning Schools in Kashmir Valley

While the security personnel and state authorities are busy handling the relentless ceasefire violations and aggravated infiltration of militants, reports of burning down of schools in the Valley have hardly evoked any critical response. Ever since the valley entered an impasse after the killing of Burhan Wani on July 8^th over 25 schools were torched. This delinquent attack on the education system is unpardonable. Education besides enlightening a soul, nurtures it and bestows a sense of direction in a person’s life. Any attempt to thwart education system will have a deleterious effect on a country. Indeed, the aspirations, ambitions and thought process of the youth are shaped by education. A calibrated attempt to systemically vandalize schools is undoubtedly steered by an ulterior motive.

Beyond an iota of doubt, the prevailing, prolonged unrest of over 115 days in the Valley is a handiwork of Pakistan militant outfits. These indoctrinated groups are known to detest all hues of modern education that chides conservative ideology imbuing jihadist values. Since communities endowed with contemporary education in every likelihood may not support the jihadi cult perpetrated by terror outfits. Through targeted destruction of schools, terror elements can render the Kashmiri youth incapable and incapacitated. Frustrated youth with shattered dreams can then be lured into indoctrination. In absence of education, the valley can easily be turned into a breeding ground of jihadists. The terror elements having tasted resounding success by entrapping the frustrated youth of the valley in the form of Burhan Wani is bent on carrying out the planned entrapment.

Recent developments in the Valley indicate some personnel were expelled from the education department for their alleged involvement in activities inconsistent with preferred code of conduct. This demonstrates that the vested interests with an extensive network and penetration into education departments are at work to critically tamper the formal education. With schools offering no scope for inducting the nefarious propaganda in the curriculum vested interests might have resorted to the heinous act of burning down the temples of education. Despite the brewing unrest for the past 27 years, the Valley produced stalwarts in various fields. The success stories of the Kashmiris in the competitive exams in the recent years had revived the spirits and youth who are springing forward to join government services. These positive developments undoubtedly cast a shadow on the dubious interests of the anti-social elements. Currently the Valley is under the siege of bigoted ideology. While the actual culprits are yet to be nabbed, clearly the motives of the group are despicable. What makes the series of developments more threatening are the close similarities to events in countries in India’s neighborhood where indoctrinated militants unabashedly unleashed a war on education system. A pall of gloom descended on the education system in the Valley when Hurriyat leaders and militants from across the border issued an edict ordering the closure of schools and colleges after July 8^th.  Henceforth, the Valley was enduring a prolonged unrest. Schools have reduced the working hours to two and half hours to prepare the students for the upcoming exams.

Mostly government schools were attacked and burnt by the unidentified groups. The worst sufferers are unfortunately, thousands of students hailing from poor families whose lives are now thrown into a tizzy. Poor families can’t afford to send their wards to schools outside the Valley. The uneducated youth of Kashmir will eventually fall prey to the despicable agenda of radical elements. Subsequently these are used as “cannon fodder” by separatists constituting the huge army of the stone-pelters.

Alarmed by the growing incidents of burning of schools in the Valley, State government and the recent three-member delegation headed by Yashwant Sinha appealed Hurriyat leaders to exempt schools from the protests. But Hurriyat leaders refused. While lakhs of students and families are lamenting the prospect of losing an academic year, Hurryiat leaders’ kin under strict vigil and guard are writing exams in a private school in the Valley.

Incidentally burning of schools aptly reminds of impetuous acts of Taliban in Afghanistan who believed in the “demotivation, distraction and traumatization of the students” to accomplish their narrow gains. The struggle and fight of Nobel Prize winner, Malala Yousafzai, for education brought forth the pathetic conditions that existed in the Swat Valley of Pakistan into light. Radical elements of the sub-continent notorious for their attacks on education system is thus well known. Similarly, militants in Afghanistan have burned hundreds of schools in the occupied territories and characteristically destroyed the education system pushing them into a quagmire of radicalization. Indeed, the pattern followed by Taliban indicated that insurgency preceded desecration of education institutions.  Mysterious burning of school in Valley is truly alarming. Sadly, till now the group responsible for torching over 25 schools catering to the needs of 12 lakh people was unidentified.

Armed with enabling education, over centuries, several countries in the World could swim through trying circumstances. Education of masses is critically important for progress and development of a nation. The new precedent of torching educational institutions is part of a larger conspiracy aimed at keeping the youth of the Valley illiterate, poor and desperate so that vested interests could fuel unrest at their behest. Despite the unabated burning down of schools, separatists haven’t issued a statement condemning the vandalization. Instead they were justifying closure of schools. Meanwhile, High Court has taken suo moto cognizance of the issue and ordered state government to take necessary measures. Bizarre developments in the Valley warrants immediate attention and cooperation of the local communities especially in nailing the culprits.

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