Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was on a three-day long
visit to India last weekend to carry out strategic deliberations with India to
ensure India’s support for its stance on the South China Sea. Wang’s agenda also
included firming up President Xi Jinping’s trip to India to attend 8th
BRICS Summit Meet at Goa and preparing draft of the joint statement for
bilateral talks at G-20 Summit. He also prepared ground for talks on several
crucial issues as leaders from both countries are all set to meet each other in
their respective countries. Modi is scheduled to fly to China for the 11th
G-20 summit meeting at Hangzhou, capital city of Zhejiang province from Sept
4-5th. Modi will be holding talks with President Xi along the
sidelines of G-20 summit. Later Modi will embark on a bilateral visit to
Vietnam and Laos to attend the 11th East Asia Summit (EAS) Meet. Wang
after landing in Delhi had a brief sojourn to Goa to oversee preparations for
the upcoming BRICS summit and met Goa Governor. Back in Delhi he had a dialogue
with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and three hour-long talk with Sushma Swaraj.
China for the first time was handed the baton of Presidency
of G-20 Summit at Brisbane in 2014 to conduct the summit meeting. To showcase
its status as the emerging superpower, China invested over $100 billion to
build state-of-art infrastructure facilities at Hangzhou, capital city of
Zhejiang province for the summit. As Beijing aspires to revel in the new role
of a “responsible power”, it sent Foreign Minister to India to reach at a
consensus, seek each other support for the upcoming G-20 Summit Meet and the
BRICS Meet to be held at Goa from October 4-5.
Of late, China crusading through the path of resurrection and
aggrandizing economic embellishments began proactively engaging with various
countries at international fora. To strengthen its regional grandstanding China
worked towards establishment of alternative multilateral institutions like the
New Development Bank through BRICS, Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank
(AIIB) and unveiled ambitious One Belt, One Road (OBOR). Communist Party of
China (CPC) which is steadily losing ground for its dictatorial onslaughts,
economic slowdown and widening income parities aspires to reassert its
legitimacy by hosting G-20 summit.
China’s infamous notoriety for openly condemning the July
12th verdict of Permanent court of Arbitration, Hague which rejected the legal
validity of its claims to the territorial regions in the South China Sea (SCS)
drew international attention. Its defiance drew the ire of the West, Japan and
others. Amidst the worst international face-off, China managed to coerce its
financial benefactors into silence, created a rift among the ASEAN countries
and scuttled their attempts to discuss SCS verdict at the recently concluded
ASEAN summit at Laos. To its credit, China claims to have garnered support of
60 odd countries (including India). Indeed Beijing perspicaciously hinted to
have obtained India’s support by drawing attention to the joint statement
signed by foreign ministers of Russia, China and India at RIC, April 2016 that
“All maritime disputes should be
addressed through negotiations and agreements between the parties concerned”.
Countering Beijing’s duplicitous interpretations, in its boilerplate response
to the SCS verdict MEA said, “As a State
Party to UNCLOS, India urges all parties to show utmost respect for the UNCLOS,
which established international legal order of the seas and oceans”.
Indeed, India always favored freedom of navigation. The India-US
Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region of 2015 issued
with President Obama indicated that “We
(India and US) affirm the importance of safeguarding maritime security and
ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region,
especially in the South China Sea”. India has even backed Philippines
position in SCS, and at Indo-Philippines third joint commission meeting on
bilateral affairs, the joint statement referred SCS as West Philippine Sea
asserting its indirect support for peaceful resolution of SCS dispute.
China’s open defiance of SCS verdict has become bone of
contention and in every likelihood western countries might raise the issue at
G-20 Summit. India’s commitment towards freedom of navigation and commerce which
is in line with US can spell trouble for China. Hence Wang Yi rushed to New
Delhi to extract a promise of not siding with the West on the SCS issue. In
fact Wang’s visit was preceded by subtle warning to India from the mouth piece
of Chinese government, Global Times
of potential danger in disruption of bilateral ties, business investments and
trade if New Delhi fails to endorse Chinese position on SCS or talks about SCS
at G-20 summit. In a veiled attempt it cautioned India of muddling the BRICS
Meet if India fails to concede. Moreover, China, greatly disconcerted by ASEAN
countries perception of India as the new regional challenger to Beijing’s
territorial claims and deepening Indo-Vietnam cooperation has made Beijing wary
of India.
But currently relations between two Asian giants are mired by
several outstanding issues. India was ruffled by reports of PLA’s (Peoples
Liberation Army) incursions and air space violations into Uttarakhand’s Chamoli
district, joint Sino-Pakistan military patrols in the POK and clandestine
build-up of military logistics in the disputed POK region. New Delhi is also
miffed by China’s comments on Kashmir issue and its ineptness in prevailing
over the cross-border terrorism perpetrated by Pakistan. India is visibly irked
by Chinese indulgence in CPEC. Unrestrained flow of sophisticated defence
technology from China has emboldened Pakistan’s anti-India terror agenda. China
in turn condemned Indian media for “stirring up” negative sentiments and was
upset over denial of extension of visa’s to
three Chinese media personnel. Indo-Chinese relations hit a major
stand-off with China unwilling to relent India’s candidature for NSG. China
played an obstructionist by obstinately insisting that India should be a
signatory of NPT to become member of NSG. It is worth noting that Beijing
supported for a waiver to India proposed by US in 2008 without a whimper. China
at the recent Seoul Plenary of NSG argued that any waivers extended to India
should as well be passed on the other aspirants like Pakistan. In the
meanwhile, India’s NSG membership received a shot in arm with Mexico publicly
stating that NSG membership and NPT shouldn’t be clubbed together since
ratification of NPT is only one of the five clauses for getting into nuclear
club. With China keen on appeasing India in return for its silence on SCS
verdict at G-20, offered to resume talks about India’s candidature for NSG. While
Wang was eager to cover major ground on getting India’s endorsement for SCS,
setting aside India’s concerns, Swaraj firmly deliberated on China’s blocking
of India’s candidature to NSG and its vetoing India’s move to impose ban on JeM
Chief Masood Azhar at UN.
Over the decades, terms of engagement between India and China
witnessed sudden shift. Both countries resolved to keep contentious border
disputes on a back burner and agreed to strengthen cooperation on issues of
common concern at several international platforms. Subsequently, they have
rejuvenated business ties wherein economic returns majorly tilted in favor of
China. But lately relations are taking a new turn with India emerging a
favorite destination for investment. Sustained growth patterns has changed
fortunes of India and with countries like US and Japan forging strategic ties with New Delhi, India
is increasingly viewed as a “potential regional rival” by China. Wang’s visit
to India is perceived to an attempt to ensure India’s support and cooperation
at G-20 Summit. To avert possible embarrassment, China has shifting its
position from premonitory admonition to potential appeasement or rather adopted
a carrot and stick approach to put a lid on simmering bilateral ties. Indeed, a
great power differential exists between India and China and conventional wisdom
dictates India to be sensitive to vital interests of bigger power. But given,
China’s persistent reluctance to support India’s permanent membership to UNSC,
unrelenting stance on NSG membership and thwarting attempts on terror outfits
India is forced to rethink its strategies. While Beijing agreed to setup formal
high level talks to discuss outstanding issues including India’s NSG
membership, it warned of plausible disruption in bilateral business ties if
India refrains from remaining silent on SCS at G-20 summit. Hence, despite
China’s “carrot and stick” kind of approach Indian leadership must remain
affirmative, for 55% of India’s seaborne trade passes through SCS.
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