Modi @ Nuclear Security Summit: Relevance and achievements

With global terrorism becoming omniscient, nuclear safety and security is a subject of poignant interest. Spurt in the outlandish insidious terror attacks across the globe has raised the imminent dangers of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of the rogue elements. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Washington to attend the fourth and perhaps, the last in the series of Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) March 31-April 1^st. The summit is attended by leaders and representatives from 53 countries and four international organizations (EU, INTERPOL, UN and IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). India traumatized by four decades long tyranny of terrorism have greater stakes. Moreover with soaring aspirations of potentially utilizing nuclear power in a sustainable manner India has to integrate the global nuclear and ensure highest level of security to nuclear facilities. As a preemptive task, India is persistently seeking the membership of global nuclear regimes- Nuclear Suppliers Group, Missile Technology Control Regime, The Australian Group and the Wassenaar Arrangement.

India, an energy-thirsty country, has set daunting task of augmenting the energy supplies to 40 GW from renewable resources. As of now, the nuclear power capacity is 5780 Mega Watts from the 21 reactors across the country accounts for mere 2% of total energy generated. India intends to step up nuclear power generation to 65 GW by 2035 which is will be less than 5% of the overall installed capacity. Nuclear power generation in India would help in mitigating carbon emission by reducing the dependence on fossil fuels. But the expansion is subject to India’s agreements with countries like Russia, Australia, France, Japan, Canada and US. India’s nuclear ambitions can be easily surmounted by obtaining global membership in all the global nuclear regimes. Moreover as India seeks to expand its nuclear facilities, the issue nuclear safety and security becomes more crucial. Any breach in nuclear safety would not only undermine public confidence and deter nuclear powers to set shop in India but also contends India’s stance as a responsible nuclear power.

The Nuclear Security Summit, the brain child of President Obama is a follow-up initiative of his predecessor Bush. Five months after being elected to office, Obama on the eve of 10^th anniversary of Czechoslovakia’s entry into NATO at Prague in May 2009, expounded the dangers of nuclear terrorism and promised to evolve an international forum to secure dreadful nuclear weapons. The proliferation of nuclear weapons, the formidable ghosts of Cold war were initially tamed by the nuclear non-proliferation treaty that concluded in 1969. Subsequently with the genesis of export-control regimes procurement of the fissile material was streamlined. Post 9/11 with the emergence of terrorist groups, the idea of nuclear terrorism and its impending dangers on global security turned into a major predicament. In an attempt to strengthen and protect nuclear facilities & materials, Bush in 2005 pushed for an amendment in the Convention for Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) and the International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (ICSANT). Obama extended highest priority to nuclear terrorism and held first global summit on nuclear security at Washington in 2010. These were followed by Summits at Seoul in 2012 and The Hague in 2014. While the current summit at Washington is believed to be the last series, convening of future summits is left to the discretion of the next US president. But all the experts, leaders and officials from various countries who helped in organizing the summits will continue to work as the Nuclear Security Contact Group. IAEA is making all efforts to sustain the momentum generated by the nuclear security group by organizing annual ministerial meetings.

Obama in his open-ed, announced a new framework for civil nuclear policy under which all eligible IAEA member states can avail nuclear energy for peaceful purposes from the International Nuclear Fuel Bank built at Kazakhstan. Nations will be assured of nuclear fuel when their supplies are disrupted under exceptional circumstances. The bank build by IAEA will be reserve of Low Enrichment Uranium (LEU). IAEA has a guaranteed physical reserve maintained by Russian Federation at the International Uranium Enrichment Centre in Angarsk, Russia and LEU enrichment services in UK as well.

Besides, addressing the concerns of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists, NSS aims to restrict the usage of the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), beefing up security at nuclear facilities, implementation of national regulations and best practices, checking illicit trafficking of fissile material, building centers of excellence, increasing capacity building and strengthening nuclear security coordination. NSS has some notable achievements to its credit. It has successfully removed 3.2 tons of HEU and Plutonium, an amount enough to make 130 nuclear weapons from 14 countries. NSS has been instrumental in physically upgrading the security facilities at 32 nuclear repositories. It has installed radiation detection equipment at 328 border crossings, airports and other areas vulnerable to smuggling, down blended 15 tons of HEU to LEU. It furthered verified shutdown of 24 HEU reactors or converted them to use alternate fuels in 15 countries including India’s Apsara nuclear reactor.

NSS thus far, has generated momentum ensuring highest level of security to nuclear facilities. But unlike other multilateral arrangements, NSS has narrow focus and advocates characteristic house basket diplomacy, wherein the participating countries as a token of agreement voluntarily announce measures or initiatives to uphold the objectives of NSS. Since the 2^nd Summit meeting at Seoul, members have come together for gift basket diplomacy wherein members would make bundle of pledges. India has thus far attended all the summits except the one in 2014 indicating its commitment towards nuclear safety. India has accordingly, pledged $1 million to the Nuclear Security Fund launched by IAEA and as part of house gift established a Global Center of Excellence for Nuclear Energy Partnership (GCENEP) in Bahadurgarh Haryana. This center on Nuclear Security Training expected to begin its operations in 2017 made significant progress by conducting international workshops and conference since 2011. Interestingly, NSS doesn’t end in signing a master-document and hence a major lacuna of this forum is absence of legally binding outcome. Also NSS neglects nearly 83% of the HEU and Plutonium held in military stockpiles and focused on the stocks meant for civilian use. Moreover there is no institutional set up to carry out the objectives. Hence to sustain the enthusiasm and faith reposed in the congruent ideas of NSS, five organizations are entrusted with the responsibility of implementing the objectives. These include- UN (General Assembly and Security Council), IAEA, Interpol, Global Initiative to combat nuclear terrorism (GICNT) co-chaired by Russia and US and G7 global partnership against spread of materials of mass destruction.

With reports emerging that major non-state actors like ISIS and others contemplating on acquiring nuclear weapons and fissile material, the threat of nuclear terrorism becomes more pronounced. Strategists are now concerned about various scenarios that can be potentially dangerous and as plausible effects might transcend beyond boundaries in such events. These include terrorists raiding a nuclear facility, stealing a functional bomb, obtaining fissile material or highly enriched Uranium and eventually building a dirty crude bomb and attacks on nuclear reactors. David Headley during his confessions indicated that Mumbai terror attacks of 2008 originally included a reconnaissance of BARC (Bhabha Atomic Research Centre) which houses Dhruva reactor, the largest source of weapons-grade plutonium.

With an unprecedented increase in various terror outfits operating across the globe, propensity of destructive nuclear weapons falling into rogue hands increased tremendously. South Asian region known for highest density of human population also harbors huge amounts of fissile material. India under Modi is all geared up to take a leadership role in South Asia but its ascent is constrained by lack of transparency in nuclear security and safety provided to its own facilities. The leakage of heavy water used for cooling nuclear reactor core from the Kakrapar Atomic Power Station (KAPS) in Surat district that caused temporary shutdown exposed lacunae of India’s nuclear program. India has made significant progress in the last two years and Modi highlighted the progress made including ratifying the additional protocol of IAEA at the Summit. Further with a commitment to establish an independent nuclear regulatory body and an assurance of strengthening security at nuclear facilities Modi boosted India’s nuclear credentials globally. Other significant announcements included-making nuclear safety a national priority, popularizing use of alternative isotopes like Cesium-137 and Molybednum-99, setting up counter nuclear smuggling team. India will host a workshop with IAEA experts on International Physical Protection Assessment Service (IPPAS). New Delhi will be part of trilateral initiative of NSS chairs on strengthening nuclear security implementation. India will now join three gift baskets of counter nuclear smuggling, nuclear security contact group in Vienna and in coordinating best practices through Centers of Excellence including its own. With these emphatic pledges at NSS, India reiterated its stand of responsible nuclear power. Modi made a veiled at Pakistan by hinting at the collusion between the military and the non-state actors and warned of subsequent disastrous consequences on the world at large. Ahead of the NSS summit India has pledged $1 million towards Nuclear Security Fund.

Globally with hegemonic wars between US and China on rise, China is now desperate on keeping its 150 ICMB’s ready to counter the 450 land-based ICBM’s on alert. The Summit comes at a time when the World is bracing the travails of unannounced nuclear testing of North Korea, clamor of maritime disputes in the South China Sea and an aggressive posturing by China  in terms of unveiling its longest range intercontinental missile, DF-41. Incidentally US and Russia together control nearly 98% of World’s nuclear weapons and dispassionate commitment by these nations can significantly change the dynamics of the nuclear terrorism. Both nations under New START (Strategic Arms Reduction) treaty of 2011 have mutually agreed to systematically limit the strategic arms by 2018. But prospective adherence to the objectives of treaty is under contention with relations between the nations hitting a new low. Moreover with miffed Russian leadership skipping the summit hopes of strategic reduction of arms are dissipated. Similarly, Pakistan the epicenter of global terrorism and hub of non-state actors too pulled off at the eleventh hour. Citing domestic crisis following the Lahore blast that targeted Christian minorities, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif refrained from attending the summit. With crucial player like Pakistan escaping the international scrutiny, experts raised doubts about the impact and relevance of nuclear security and safety.

Besides, several critics in US were highly critical of the summit since they opined that summit interfered with functioning of IAEA. In fact an international movement against nuclear weapons Global Zero took out a rally in Washington’s Mc Pherson Square drawing attention to 15000 odd nuclear weapons in World. They argue that nuclear security and safety is a myth as along as such weapons exist.

Obama successfully scripted diplomatic victories by pioneering the enforcement of historic Iranian nuclear deal and for eliminating HEU from 12 countries. But his duplicity is glaringly obvious with US President planning to modernize nuclear weapons over a period of 30 years costing $1 trillion.  Nuclear Threat Initiative claims that there is no perceptible improvement in security measures around the nuclear facilities in US. Meanwhile the spurious comments of Donald Trump arguing that US allies Japan and South Korea be empowered to have their own arsenal contradicts the proposition of non-proliferation advocated by Obama. The discussions on nuclear security in the wake of recent bomb attacks in Belgium opened a conduit of controversies. A report of Federation of American scientists indicates that Kleine Brogel Air Base 60 miles from Brussels airport has been store house of nuclear arsenal of US since 1963. It is also established that US has hoarded its weapons in the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Turkey. While it has disposed most of the weapons along the East European border after the collapse of Soviet Union, military reports suggest that nuclear storehouses of US in some of European countries including Belarus and in Africa are intact. With perilous terror network spreading tentacles across the globe safeguarding nuclear repositories has become a Herculean task. US currently spends $100 million to maintain nuclear weapons in Europe. 

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