Securing Ties with Maldives

India’s rejuvenation of ties with Maldives despite New Delhi’s serious reservations to the current regime’s brutal trampling of democratic process is a testimony to “Neighborhood First” doctrine advocated by Modi. The two-day visit of Maldives President Adbulla Yameena Abdul Gayoom to New Delhi on April 10^th with a proclamation of “India first policy” assumes greater strategic importance with the Archipelago overtly drawn into Beijing’s embrace. Just days ahead of Maldives President Visit, official reports emerged indicating Male’s unequivocal submission to Beijing’s Maritime’s expansion that can be deleterious to India’s strategic interests. The reports suggest that China Maldives is all to set allow China to build a port in the Southernmost Laamu Atolls posing a serious threat to India’s interest in the Indian Ocean Region. It is also believed that Maldives is contemplating on approving China’s plans of building a port at Gadhoo Island in a Southern Atoll. The island has greater maritime significance, for it lies on the one and half degree channel, which is a major international shipping passage going through Maldives. Ever since the change of regime, Maldives interests have shifted drastically with Abdulla Yameen increasingly leaning on China. This was reflected in sudden surge of investments in infrastructure development by the China in the island. Located in Indian Ocean, the Archipelago is strategically poignant and is ideally suited for the Chinese Pearls of String concept. President Xi, realizing the strategic importance of the Archipelago, revved up ties with Maldives and made it an indispensable partner of his Maritime Silk Route. Currently, Maldives owes 70% of its external debt to China and is highly dependent on its financial largesse. Indian strategists have been highly critical of the burgeoning Sino-Maldivian bilateral ties that escalated the port building spree of China in India’s back yard. Hence the Indian diplomatic community has deep apprehensions over the tall proclamations of India First Policy enunciated by the visiting Maldivian President. This is Yameen’s third visit to India since he assumed the office in 2013. He visited India twice in 2014.

Indo-Maldivian bilateral relations had gone for a toss with Prime Minister Narendra Modi cancelling his scheduled bilateral visit to the island in March 2015 (as a part of four nation visit to Indian Ocean neighbors) following Island’s oppressive internal conflicts. Within months of cancellation of visit, India lost no time in reviving ties. Foreign Secretary Jaishankar Subramanyam embarked on SAARC yatra which included Maldives and this was immediately followed by a visit by Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj to the island. Situated to the south of Lakshadweep, spread in an area of 90,000 sq km and comprising of 1200 islands, Maldives has an unparalleled strategic importance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India was among one of the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with Maldives in 1965 after it attained independence from the British. As friendly neighbors both countries share longstanding cultural, ethnic, linguistic, religious and trade links. India setup embassy at Male in 1972 and amicably resolved maritime boundary in 1976. As founding members of South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and South Asian Economic Forum both countries consolidated trade relations by signing South Asia Free Trade Agreement. India always played an effective role of security provider of Maldives. In 1988 responding to the pleas of help from the then President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, Indian Army launched “Operation Cactus” and successfully foiled a coup in Maldives attempted by armed militants of LTTE. Bilateral relations between the countries expanded considerably after India thwarted the coup and at the request of Maldivian political dispensation, India has a naval presence in the island since 2009. India has been a leading development partner in Maldives and actively contributed to infrastructure development, health, civil aviation and telecommunications. India has gifted Trinkat Class Fast Attack craft to Maldives Coast Guards. Indian Coast Guard’s Dornier was indeed the first to reach the island with supplies and relief when the island was stuck by tsunami in 2004. More recently in 2015, when the island’s lone sea water treatment plant was gutted down in a fire accident India dispatched several gallons of fresh water to Maldives.

Ever since the arrest of the first democratically elected pro-India, leader President Mohammed Nasheed, on charges of terrorism in February 2015 who was sentenced to 13 years of jail, bilateral relations glaciated. Nasheed, who sought refuge in the Indian Embassy at Male was arrested by the current President and half-brother of former President Abdul Gayoom, Adbulla Yameena. By arresting former President Nasheed, Abdulla Yameena stifled the voices of democracy. He eliminated all his rivals cleverly. He impeached two Supreme Court judges who didn’t support repeated postponement of Presidential elections, sacked an attorney-journal for exposing the disproportionate assets of his right-hand man, Ahmed Adeeb, and arrested defence minister for “plotting a coup”. In order to have unbridled power to amend legislations that can facilitate absolute authority, he lured the opposition and got the required numbers to pass legislations in the Majlis (Parliament). He agreed to commute Nasheed’s imprisonment to house arrest and obliged to enter into talks with opposition. Accordingly, Nasheed was shifted home for just a month and was later sent back to jail. He reneged on his promise of peace talks with the opposition as well. These legislations included limiting the age of Presidential candidate, a constitutional amendment wherein any foreign company/individual who invests more than $1 billion in the island and reclaims over 70% land used for the project can buy land (to favor China).  In the meanwhile, he awarded the Ihavandhippolhu Integrated development project (iHavan) designed for the northern most atoll and the expansion of the International Airport Male originally awarded to GMR group to China. iHavan designed for the atoll located on the seven-degree channel through which east-west shipping route operates, connects South East Asian and China to Middle-East and Europe.

Besides, drifting towards China another excruciating aspect of the island that can threaten regional interests are its new found passion for radical Islam. In 1997, Abdul Gayoom declared Maldives as an Islam nation and shielded it effectively from the modern influences despite the island being the favorite global tourist destination. Under the despotic Yameen regime, Islamic orthodoxy has reached new heights. Besides scuttling the democratic voices on the island, he even closed the island’s lone newspaper. The island slowly and steadily slipped into Riyadh’s embrace. Maldivian society which was hailed as liberal society is now largely conservative. Yameen enamored by Saudi Arabia has sought Riaydh’s cooperation for deepening cultural and educational cooperation. Saudi Arabia in turn has promised to extend scholarships to Maldivian youth for Islamic education, offered to construct mosques and send the Imams to train the local religious leaders. As a result, Maldives has now turned into a new breeding ground for Wahhabi ideology and reports indicate that millions of young Maldivians are indoctrinated with the radical Islam tenets. For decades by pumping immense reserves of Petrodollars Saudi Arabia unleashed a campaign of spreading its radical ideology across South Asia and Maldives joined the list now. In 2007 Kerala police arrested a Maldivian youth accused of Male bomb blast. Kerala, a hot bed of radical Islam groups maintains close links with Maldives and an inflow of radical ideology might be inimical to India. New reports indicate that 40 youth from Maldives travelled to Syria to fight along IS. India should be really worried about the Kerala links with the Island’s radical groups that might have direct implications on India’s internal security. Insiders suggest that the reports gave a conservative estimate but the real numbers might be in hundreds. In 2014, Crown Prince Salman on his visit to Maldives, (two atolls were exclusively reserved for him cancelling all the outstanding reservations for two months), he pledged $1.2 million for construction of 10 world class mosques, donated $1.5 million for health sector and $1 million for Islamic Waqf board. In the meanwhile, Yameen is trying to build defence with Pakistan as well. With a population of just 3,50,000 Maldives, a tiny Archipelago in the Indian Ocean threatens to disrupt the regional peace and strategic interests with its religious overtures. Former Maldivian President once lamented that island’s youth are now increasingly drawn towards IS as hordes of them are leaving the island for Syria and Iraq. China seems to have no qualms over islands “infatuation” towards Saudi Arabia. But the latest developments in in tiny islands might have “cascading effect” on the maritime security of Indian Ocean Region.

Meanwhile, the seamless authority and unbridled power of Yameen has critically changed the democratic contours of the island. A state of turmoil prevailed in Maldives after Yameen declared national emergency in November. The severe wave of democratic protests and subsequent contemptible crackdown meted by the opposition appalled the human rights organizations. In January 2016, Nasheed appealed to the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) for remission of jail sentence. With his case taken forward by high profile lawyer Amal Clooney, Maldives caught international attention. President Yameen in his current visit to Delhi thanked India for protecting the island from the “possible punitive action” by the CMAG. India was part of the three member CMAG team that visited Maldives in Feburary. India didn’t chide Maldives publicly and this averted suspension from the Common Wealth Group.  As a big neighbor India has a commendable record of rescuing smaller nations in its immediate neighborhood at the hour of crisis but Maldives and Nepal often blame India of interfering in its internal affairs. Interestingly, the representative heads of both the countries visited India and acknowledged India’s support. Despite serious misgivings with Male, India has decided to shed its reservations and reiterated its commitment to renew ties with Maldives. India and Maldives signed six pacts. Agreements on defence cooperation and expansion of cooperation on counter terrorism topped the agenda. Other major agreements include- agreement on avoidance of double taxation, exchange of information with respect to taxes, coordinating towards the commissioning of the SAARC satellite, MoU for cooperation in restoration of old mosques and joint research and explorations and cooperation in tourism. Modi promised to speed up Indian infrastructure projects undertaken in Maldives and promised all assistance as “strategic interests of both countries are interlinked”. Modi’s pragmatic diplomacy of re-engaging with Maldives shedding its big brother kind of attitude can play rich dividends. Clearly India has realized the strategic importance of Maldives in the wake of growing Chinese presence in IOR. By renewing bilateral defence cooperation India has bolstered relations with its SAARC neighbor.

 

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Countdown to Partition-The Final Days : A Book Review

While prospect of attaining independence from the British after over two centuries of struggle was heartening, the formidable partition of the country had agonized several freedom fighters. On the eve of the 50 years of independence, Ajit Bhattacharjea released his book titled "Countdown to Partition: The Final Days" that gave a crisp account of details pertaining to the last three months of events that steadily hardened the reality of partition and brutally bruised an independent nation.

The book clearly illustrates the ruthless division of India along religious lines grossly undermining the repeated solicitations of Mahatma Gandhi. Lord Mountbatten, designated with most prodigious job of facilitating the transition of powers from the British Royalty to the Indian leaders hurried the whole process impetuously leading to a colossal loss of men and material. Moreover the shoddy demarcation of the international border by Border Commission headed by Radcliffe, a novice to Indian culture, history and landscape exacerbated the damages of partition. The author succinctly outlines all the exalting twists and turns of freedom fighters, Congressmen and Muslim League members. The unprecedented rush and unceremonious decision of dividing the country and fool-hardiness of Congress chieftains was lucidly explained. The author argues that through a calibrated strategy of “speed and acceleration” in transferring powers to India, the British successfully confused Indian leaders. In fact Indian leaders were given just 73 days to sort out administration issues. As a result the unprepared new administration had to bear the brunt of ruthless partition.

While cautiously refraining from dwelling into esoteric details that preceded India’s independence, the author was highly critical of the Congress for yielding to the British precondition of partition. Sections of the book harps on the deep anguish and agony endured by Mahatma Gandhi who indirectly rebuked Congress leaders for falling cheaply to the British trap. Though Partition was indispensable, Gandhi opined that Indian leaders shouldn’t have accepted British terms of partition. All the sequence of events spanning four months to the D-day and the underlying politics behind the partition are highlighted in the book. With major leaders from Congress and Muslim League complying with the idea of partition, the Princely states were asked to join either India or Pakistan. While it was decided to divide provinces of Punjab and Bengal along communal lines, the fate of provinces of Baluchistan, Assam and North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) were decided by a referendum. Among the long list of faux pas committed by the Congress leadership, this book throws light on an incorrigible blunder. The Muslim dominated province of NWFP and it leader Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, a staunch disciple of Gandhi having emulated secular ideals were desirous of joining India. But the region was claimed by Pakistan. Nehru has stopped Congress (despite Congress being in power in that province) from participating in referendum, as a result the outcome was in favor of Pakistan. Indeed only 17% of the total population had exercised their franchise.

The impunity of the British administration and the doltish decisions of Congress leaders had  inadvertently plunged a fledging independent nation into chaos and confusion. A lucid description of sequences of the events that eventually culminated in partition of the country makes it an interesting read. The author unapologetically concludes that "partition was a colossal tragedy, a man-made catastrophe brought about by politicians who failed to understand the implications of dividing the country along religious lines".  An engaging read for people keen on analyzing the dangerous repercussions that portended independent India and the heavy cost paid by Indian masses to obtain freedom.  

 

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The Engima Called Pakistan

Whatever be the consequences, the issue of Indo-Pakistan continues to draw unprecedented domestic and international attention. The flurry of activity between India and Pakistan in the past four months flagged off by a between meeting between NSA’s of both countries accompanied by their foreign secretaries signaled the inception of a new praxis of diplomatic of engagement. This was soon followed by Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Islamabad for Heart of Asia conference and reached a crescendo with Prime Minister Modi’s impromptu visit to Lahore on Christmas Eve. But the apogee was soon demolished by Pakistan-backed terrorist attacks on the Indian air base at Pathankot. The attack besides shattering benign intentions of fledging Modi regime of a pragmatic peace process but also validated chronic subterfuge of Pakistan. Unlike the earlier episodes of terrorist attacks, Nawaz Sharif assured India of “prompt and decisive” action. To temporarily ward-off the rapacious time-bound action warranted by Modi Pakistani media reported arrest of 12 JeM operatives. It soon emerged that no substantive action was ordered against JeM, the terror outfit responsible for clandestine attacks and its operatives. Upon India’s persistence for action, Pakistan demanded more evidence and expectedly unconvinced of Indian reports, requested an access to the site of attacks for its Joint Investigation Team (JIT). The barrage of criticisms over government’s decision of allowing the JIT comprising of ISI officials to strategic air base of Pathankot for collecting evidence drew severe flak from Indian strategists. Government substantiated its stand that permission had an underlying clause of reciprocation whereby Indian NIA team will be allowed to investigate the crucial hideouts of anti-Indian terror operatives. After the three day-long stint in India, in a nocuous media leak, JIT parroted that attacks were staged by India to malign Pakistan.

During the same time, in an orchestrated symphony of deception Pakistan army arrested a former Indian Navy officer Kulbhushan Jadav alleging him as R&AW officer and raked up “spy connection”. Islamabad then embarked on a defaming slugfest by denouncing the Indian officer of involving in subversive activities in Balouchistan province of Pakistan. While the botched up spy script was dismissed by International community with utter disdain, Pakistan continues to fester the lies. Further it had tried to drag the Iranian dispensation into the muck for it coincided with Iranian President’s bilateral visit to Islamabad. Iran quickly distanced itself from all these incriminating details. Culminating the debauchery, Pakistan High Commissioner to India, Abdul Basit announced that “peace process with India has been suspended”. Indian political class slammed Pakistan for suspending the talks and chastised Modi’s Pakistan policy. On the contrary, Pakistan observers contend that Indian authorities owed a debt of gratitude to Basit for his frank revelations. Clearly the dust-off the ongoing impasse of diplomatic saga between the countries, Basit voiced sputtered the message of GHQ, Rawalpindi. His appraisal would aid calibrated India’s predilection of Pakistan. For the first time since 1960’s Pakistan had voluntarily pulled off from peace talks. Till now India under International duress was obligated to initiate the talks despite humiliating back-stabs inflicted by Pakistan. Unarguably so, the tacitly deft move of allowing JIT by Modi might have worked to India’s advantage. Instead of getting roiled into the vicious cycle of talks and no talks, India’s current diplomatic predisposition illustrated that Delhi has spared no efforts to resuscitate ties with Pakistan. Thus, the onus of inaction is now with Pakistan. While expecting a concrete and legitimate action from Pakistan that mastered the art of subterfuge and obfuscation is asinine Basit’s timely appraisal is of immense help.  

Over the past six decades, India showered unilateral diplomatic concessions on Pakistan without expecting any reciprocation. Be it Lal Bahadur Sastry’s decision of withdrawing Indian forces from the captured territories of Pakistan or Indira Gandhi approving the release of 93,000 prisoners of war during Bangladesh liberation war or the lenient Gujaral Doctrine of pilfering India’s strategic assets to woo the neighbor. While India battles under the burden of vacuous and doltish actions of political dispensation, Pakistan unabashedly charges India of aggression and seeks parity. In fact to charter a pragmatic foreign policy towards Pakistan, India should construe the complicity of its power binary.

Pakistan on its part, despite treading the perilous and subversive path of extremism, is least apologetic. With the unchallenged despotic military authoritarianism receiving unstinted support from its all-weather friend China, Pakistan army may be in no mood to mend its ways. Pakistan’s Army received a shot in arm with China vetoing Indian resolution of imposing ban on the JeM Chief Masoor Azad supported by all the 14 countries at the UN Security Council. Further, even its tactical strategy of continually seeking parity with its larger neighbor India and the ruse of reining on the Afghanistan Taliban and Haqqani networks operating from its territory is earning it rich dividends. Notwithstanding India’s severe objections, US not only delivered eight F-16 jet fighters but has recently ordered fighter helicopters. The Pentagon is all set to sell nine AH-1Z Viper attacks helicopters worth $170 million that has improved targeting and surveillance at nights.  It is insane as how US could ignore the desperate appeals of the Afghan leaders who have are increasing paranoid about the vicious influence of Pakistan. Of late Afghan Taliban has clearly indicated that it will not participate in the peace talks initiated by Pakistan.

Chinese official once asserted that Pakistan is their Israel.  With the dichotomy of two lead powers steadily tormenting the global stability, nurturing states into their all-weather friends regardless of the consequences has become an established practice. Following the precedent set by the West, China so far has been unequivocally exercising its veto power to protect its allies- Pakistan, North Korea, Myanmar, Sudan and Zimbabwe. The lucrative economic bounty in the form of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) of worth $46 billion has invariably strengthened the existing nexus between the neighbors that share an anti-Indian bond. Pakistan has recently signed a trade agreement worth $2 million with Xinjiang province of China. Pakistan’s fundamentalism is egregiously supported by its ideological soul mate Saudi Arabia. In the recent past Saudi Arabia signed $122 million worth economic agreements with Pakistan of which $76 are grants as per an unofficial estimate Pakistan has received a whopping $1.5 billion as assistance from Saudi. With the ungrudging financial and diplomatic support from the reigning super power, emerging superpower and leader of Middle East Pakistan may never be want to change its strides.

On the domestic front, the ever-widening gap between the civilian and the military regimes is taking a toll on the country. In 2014, just before Modi’s swearing-in ceremony when Nawaz Sharif’s government slipped into a domestic crisis (over the allegations of corruption) due to the joint protests by Imran Khan and Tahirul-Qadri, Raheel Sharif, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) offered to rescue. The duo reached an agreement and accordingly, Nawaz Sharif was obliged to transfer his authority over foreign policy, defence and security affairs to COAS. Raheel Sharif earned unequivocal admiration of civilians through operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) during which 3500 militants were killed. Though Pakistan army shuns to proclaim the real authority as military regimes are perceived to be authoritarian dictatorial, functional head of the country is the COAS. In fact leaders from US, China, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia directly hold diplomatic talks with Raheel Sharif with Nawaz Sharif overlooking the economic development. While Operation Zarb-e-Azb brought down attacks on the military installations, it has created a rift within TTP, leading to a surge in sectarian violence. Further it lead to emergence of a splinter group of TTP headed by Omar Khalid Khorasani who was averse to peace with army. They claimed allegiance to IS and formed Jamaat-ul-Ahrar.

Under Raheel Sharif, while terrorist attacks within Pakistan have come down barring an attempt to hijack a naval vessel at Karachi in 2014 and an attack on Peshawar airbase in 2015, a fraction of Pakistan Taliban unleashed violent attack on a school in Peshawar killing over 140 children. This attack brought Pakistan to its knees and led to the launch of a National Action Plan (NAP) against terrorism. As per a military amendment under the plan, military courts were set up. Apex committees were constituted to deliver speedy justice. So far 61 people were executed. High handedness of the apex committees tilted the balance in favor of military in all provinces except Punjab, the domain of Nawaz Sharif. With military taking complete charge, counter terrorism operations were launched in all the provinces. Sindh province is under control of Pakistan Rangers, Zarb-e-Azb is in vogue in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and now military is forced to intervene in Punjab following massive protests condemning the judicial killing of Mumtaz Qadir, who assassinated Punjab Governor Salman Taseer for trying to bring changes in blasphemy laws. Now the military is all set to take over Punjab province following a carnage at Lahore on Easter Sunday in the Gulshan-e-Iqbal Park that killed 70 civilian lives. The attacks were claimed by Jamaat-ur-Ahrar group.

General Sharif viewed Lahore blasts as open challenge to his authority and lost no time in launching combing operations. Punjab is believed to be the breeding ground for various terror outfits like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Jamaat-ud-Dawaa(JuD), Jaish-e-Mohammed(JeM), Harkat-ul-Jihad al Islami, Sipah-e-Sahiba and Tehreek-e-Taliban. Regarding Punjab, Nawaz Sharif had an understanding with Army that military operations will not be launched as along as the terrorist outfits don’t launch attacks. But following the Lahore attacks against minorities, military forcibly initiated counter terrorism operations. Military intervention in his strong-hold irked Nawaz Sharif forcing him to pull off from the Nuclear Security Summit at Washington. The clock of internal implosion is ticking in Pakistan with all the provinces reeling under the severe crackdown of military operations. While it is globally known that the current civilian administration is spine- tooth it is now rendered powerless. With National Security Council (NSC) assuming more control over administration after the 2014 impasse, Nawaz Sharif has meekly surrendered. While elections are due for 2017, it is now largely believed that Prime Minister Sharif is all set to lose the job and will be replaced with Imran Khan, the leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

Pakistan Army is completely averse to the concept of peace talks with India and with Nawaz Sharif who aspired to build on the peace process reduced to a lame duck prime minister, India may have to seriously go back to the drawing board and come up with an emphatic strategic plan towards Pakistan. Wading through neck deep waters of Panama Leaks, Nawaz Sharif has now slumped into disgrace. Meanwhile as Islamabad, goes around trumpeting India destabilizing Pakistan theory, it is time to look within. In fact the recent carnage at Lahore, terror strikes at Baccha Khan University, heinous assassination of young school students at Peshawar school, attacks on Marriot Hotel in Islamabad and a sharp spurt in attacks on Shias, Islamias and Ahmadiyas are nothing but reincarnations of the terror monster tenuously groomed and nurtured by it over years. Globally, nations that served as epicenters of radicalism braced internal implosion and collapsed. In spite of throes of the internal turbulence, Pakistan because of its strategic geographic location is consciously favored by an array of nations for their larger geopolitical interests. Hence the Pakistani dispensation is “supremely confident that it can weather the threats and emerge stronger”. But a serious oversight and miscalculation of the scourge of extremist jihadi ideology inflicted into the DNA of Pakistan might surely destroy the nation. Moreover, with no dearth of radicalized youth keen on upholding jihadi culture, assured free flow of sophisticated arms and ammunition and absence of governmental curbs on financial conduits terrorism is bound to escalate. With the South Asian jihadi gateway having no qualms of impending disasters sneering at its face, Pakistan might rejoice in the glory of extremist ideology. In meanwhile, as Pakistan continues to enthrall and revel in the process of radicalization, India must steer its economic engines at an enviable pace.

 

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Pioneering India’s Strategic Engagement with Saudi Arabia

India’s West Asia moment has finally arrived with strategists reckoning Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Riyadh as “spectacular”. Modi’s resounding victory at the General Elections, 2014 was meted with a tepid response from the Middle East who were largely skeptical of his Hindutva affiliations. Moreover his unabashed fondness for Benjamin Netanyahu drained off West Asia’s interest in the new government. Modi having quickly learnt the diplomatic ruses, shifted gears and formally warmed up to the Middle East by meeting the Saudi Arabia’s sixth king, the late King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud on the margins of G-20 summit at Brisbane. While Modi’s visit to UAE in August 2015 was a curtain raiser to India’s tryst with West Asia, his current visit to Riyadh, the last leg of his three-nation tour consolidated New Delhi’s ties with the Gulf. Modi’s Saudi Arabia tour was marked by propitious beginnings with Saudi and the US jointly imposing sanctions on four Pakistani individuals and terror outfits Laskhar-e-Toiba (LeT), Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

India had trade links with Saudi Arabia dated back to seventh century AD. Arabs known to be pioneers of International commerce started trading along the Malabar Coast. The indomitable cultural linkages in the form of annual Haj pilgrimage by millions of Indian Shiite and Sunni Muslims vitally connects India to Saudi. India always had cordial relations with Saudi Arabia despite Riyadh’s support to Pakistan. India’s interests in Middle East is very crucial since the regions is source of oil, jobs, remittances and military equipment. Of the 7.3 million Indians working in the Gulf who constitute 64% of the total-non-resident Indians, 2.8 million Indians live in Saudi Arabia. The remittances of over $36 billion, from Gulf accounts for 52% total remittances of India. India is an oil-deficit country and imports nearly 80% of all its oil and Saudi Arabia is its largest supplier.

Diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia were heralded largely by Delhi Declaration (2006) and Riyadh Declaration (2010). Late Saudi King Abdullah became the first head of House of the Saud to visit India in 51 years as the chief guest for Republic Day parade in 2006. In 2006, both countries signed a MoU to actively cooperate in combatting crime including fighting against terrorism, extremism and criminal elements. Later in 2010 Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh on his visit to Saudi Arabia reviewed implementation of Delhi Declaration and formally elevated the ties to a strategic partnership encompassing security, defence and political areas and signed the Riyadh Declaration in 2010. Living up to the objectives of cooperation on counter terrorism, Saudi Arabia deported Syed Zaibuddin Ansari aka Abu Jundal, a master mind of 26/11 Mumbai attacks and 2010 Pune attacks to India in 2012. In December 2015, Saudi has deported a LeT terrorist Mohammed Asadullah Khan. More recently in February it handed over Mohammud Abdul Aziz, the kingpin of the jihadist movement in Hyderabad. In a major boost to the Indo-Saud relations, in August 2015, Indian Air Force made an inaugural staging at the King Fahad airbase in Taif, en route UK for a multinational exercise. Modi as a mark of respect declared a day of mourning when King Abdullah died in January 2015 striking a unique chord with Saudi Arabia. When India staged Operation Rahat to evacuate Indians from the war struck Yemen, Saudi regime extended exemplary support to India facilitating the safe evacuation of around 5000 people. In an effort to give impetus to the theme of Connecting Asia espoused at the Raisina Dialogue, Indian Foreign Secretary reiterated India’s commitment of matching the “Act East” with “Think West” initiative.

Modi’s visit to Riyadh comes at a time when the region is thrown into chaos, turmoil and despair. Entire Middle East is going through a phase of intense turbulence due to Syrian crisis, Yemen war, plummeting oil prices and intense rivalry between Saudi and Iran along sectarian lines. Middle East has become region of intense diplomatic activity of late, with President Xi Xinping touring Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia. This was followed by Pakistan’s Prime Minister and Army Chief Visit to Saudi Arabia and Iran. Modi’s perfectly timed bilateral visit infused fresh energy and momentum into the Indo-Saud relations. India’s aspirations of connecting to West Asia is in line with Saudi Arabia’s looking east policy. Plunging global oil prices, diminishing oil demand and the huge financial encumbrance of funding wars against Yemen and Syria gobbled up much of Saudi’s petro dollars.  Saudi Arabia is distraught over US retrenchment, following its energy self-sufficiency, thanks to the shale gas revolution. Riyadh is puzzled over its traditional ally’s embrace with its adversary Iran. With traditional alliances in the region going through major flux, Middle East is virtually on its own and desperately seeking new opportunities to refurbish. Stung by the economic depression of 2008, major European countries failed to recover financially. Bracing stagnant economic growth, European nations ceased to be oil guzzlers. Saudi Arabia is now looking for the East Asian countries whose economic engines are rolling and are oil thirsty. Sinking oil prices brought about a paradigm shift in Saudi’s strategic thinking which is keen on investing huge amounts of sovereign funds in developing economies. Besides, Saudi Arabia is bearing brunt of patronizing the Wahhabi culture and the growing concerns of terrorism is keeping it on tenterhooks. Rise of IS (Islamic State) is threatening the Arab monarchies.

Simultaneously, any disaster overwhelming the Middle East has huge repercussions on India as energy flows, remittances, livelihoods of millions of Indian Diaspora will be threatened. Overpowering the incipient strategic inhibitions, Modi cogently sealed cooperation with Saudi Arabia on three issues - counter terrorism, energy cooperation, economic and investment ties. In his two- day long bilateral-Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Custodian of Two Mosques in Mecca and Madina, King Salman bin Abdul Aziz issued a joint statement that reinforced a new spirit of strong friendship. Both the leaders emphasized on the need to consolidate bilateral strategic engagement for “promoting peace, stability and security in the region”. They agreed to intensify cooperation in counter-terrorism operations, cyber security and defence cooperation by conducting joint exercises, exchange of visits of ships, aircrafts, military personnel and experts. It was decided to convene second meeting of Joint Committee on defence cooperation at Riyadh, to strengthen maritime security in Gulf and Indian Ocean Region and promote collaboration for humanitarian assistance and evacuations during emergencies. Condemning terrorism in all forms and manifestations both parties agreed to enhance cooperation in combatting terrorism at bilateral and multilateral level and Saudi Arabia agreed to work towards adoption of Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism at UN. They affirmed that terrorism be delinked from religion and called on all states to cut off support and finances to the terror groups operating from their territories.

A MoU was signed between the Financial Intelligence Unit of India and its Saudi counterpart on exchange of information with regards to terror and crime related money laundering. Highlighting new initiatives taken by Government of India to improve ease of doing business, Modi welcomed Saudi Arabian companies to invest and participate in Smart Cities, Digital India and StandUp India initiatives. A framework agreement was signed between the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) of and Indian Investment Authority to facilitate investment from private sectors in both countries. Both sides agreed to transform the energy related ties from the existing “buyer-seller relationship” to investing together in joint ventures in various petrochemical complexes and for jointly exploring in India, Saudi Arabia and other countries. Both leaders stressed on the need to promote collaboration in science and technology, renewable energy, information communication technology, space technology, agriculture, urban development, health care and biotechnology. They have welcomed the establishment of Joint Working Group on Consular Issues under India-Saudi Arabia Joint Commission and signed an agreement on labor cooperation for recruitment of general category labor. In all, 5 MoU’s were signed and these include a MoU on technical cooperation between Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) and the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organization (SASO) and an executive program on cooperation in the field of handicrafts between India’s Export Promotion Council for Handicraft (EPCH) and Saudi Commission for Tourism and National Heritage. Modi took up the issue of Indian workers landing in prison for petty crimes and urged the Saudi government to sympathetically review the cases. India having emerged as one of the fastest growing economies of the World is now looked as bright spot for investments. Assuring a stable tax regime, Modi reiterated that retrospective taxation is thing of past and indicated that GST will be passed soon. Modi held talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif bin Abdulaziz bin Al-Saud, Deputy Crown Prince, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Health and Chairman of Saudi Armaco, oil Company.

King Salman extended a Royal Welcome to Modi at Al-Yamamah palace and as a mark of India’s growing recognition in the global realm, conferred country’s highest civilian honor, King AbdulAziz Sash on Prime Minister Modi. Modi gifted a gold-plated replica of the Cherman Juma-Masjid to King Salman underlining the historical trade relations between both the countries. The Masjid reminisced peaceful entry of Islam to India before it touched the shores of Pakistan and represents harmonious coexistence of different faiths in India.

Modi’s visit to the Tata Consultancy Services facility at Riyadh run exclusively by women was initially viewed with skepticism. Conscious of the rigid traditions in Saudi Arabia, Modi addressed the women as “harbinger of positive force for the World”. The elated women workers expressed their gratitude by chanting Bharat Mata Ki Jai. Modi also met Indian Workers and shared meals with them at the L&T workers residential complex in Riyadh.

Modi’s triumphant rendezvous with Saudi Arabia might truly intimidate Pakistan for reveling in the pride of being a Jihadi gateway. On the contrary, India having emerged as one of the promising economies is a favored investment destination leaving Islamabad to roil in its self-imposed imperceptible conundrum. The volume of bilateral trade between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, a mere $6 billion pales against the economic activity between India and Saudi Arabia which stands at $39 billion. By sledging development and aggressively nurturing extremism, Islamabad is now infamous as a terror haven. While Islamabad anticipates to garner support from West Asia by playing Islam card, disoriented developmental goals may leave it rudderless.

The impetus of Modi diplomatic engagement has been spearheading India’s strategic interests. Raising above traditional moral posturing characteristic of Indian foreign policy, Modi strengthened political and security engagement with Saudi Arabia. By precariously balancing India’s ties with Saudi Arabia and Iran, Modi exuded diplomatic acumen. While Modi revved up energy cooperation with Saudi, Oil Minister Dharmesh Pradhan will be visiting Tehran facilitating ONGC’s participation in developing Farhad-B gas field and to discuss investment projects at Chahbahar port. This will be soon followed by Sushma Swaraj’s visit pushing for political ties. Prime Minister in fact initiated India’s bilateral engagement with Iran when he met Iranian President Rouhani along the sidelines of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at Ufa, Russia last year. While Pakistan floundered its Muslim ideologue, by dallying with its arch-rival Iran and by staying away from the Operation Decisive Storm, led by Saudi Arabia, India has clearly scored a brownie point.

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Modi’s visit to Brussels, US and Saudi Arabia: Engaging with the EU

As a mark of solidarity regardless of the brutal bomb attacks that unleashed a reign of terror Prime Minister embarked on his scheduled visit to EU headquarters Brussels on March 30^th for the 13^th India-EU summit. Key focus of Modi’s bilateral state visits has been touting India’s economic potential and EU summit is no exception. Rattled by the terror attacks exactly a weak ahead of Indian leader visit, counter-terrorism surfaced as an important aspect of the summit and bilateral meetings. Despite its traditional linkages with Europe, unlike China which cogently fostered trade and economic ties, India failed to capitalize its long standing relations with EU. India was the first country to establish diplomatic relations with European Economic Community in 1962. India signed an agreement of bilateral cooperation with EU encompassing aspects beyond trade and economic cooperation in 1994 and the first India-EU summit was unveiled in 2000. Having borne the wrath of cross-border terrorism, India urged EU to vehemently condemn the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in the first ever joint statement with EU in 2000. EU chose to ignore ruinous state of affairs in Afghanistan and held that Taliban be encouraged to join the mainstream slowly. A systemic change about terrorism threat dawned on the West only after the 9/11 incident. Subsequently from the third India-EU at Copenhagen EU began to endorse India’ fears of burgeoning terrorism. A Joint Action Plan was adopted in 2005 to strengthen dialogue and consultation mechanisms in political and economic spheres, trade, investment and people to people interactions. Cooperation in security related issues is enhanced through constitution of a security dialogue (which holds deliberations annually) under Joint Action Plan in 2006 to which bilateral Joint Working Group on counter terrorism, cyber security and cyber piracy reports.

Earlier in 2015, Modi’s visit to Brussels during his Europe trip to France and Germany for the Indo-EU summit was cancelled as EU failed to respond. Miffed with India over the Italian marines’ issues, EU foreign policy head, an Italian passed a resolution blocking India in European Parliament in January 2015. Hence Modi’s current visit despite terror attacks just a week ahead of his visit immensely rejuvenated India-EU relations. The last India-EU summit took place in 2012. During the current summit India represented by Prime Minister Modi and the EU by Donald Tusk, President of the European Council and Jean-Claude Juncker, President of European Commission adopted a Joint Statement encompassing a gamut of aspects. At the outset, the statement strongly condemned the bomb attacks in Brussels on 22^nd March and extended condolences to the families of the 32 people who lost their lives and over 300 who were severely injured. Both sides reposed strong interest in working towards “building global peace, security and prosperity fostering non-proliferation and disarmament, creating jobs and inclusive economic development and tackling global challenges like terrorism and climate change in addition to other challenges such as migration and refugee crisis”. Leaders have laid concrete framework for India-EU strategic relationship by endorsing the Indo-EU Agenda for Action-2020 for the next five years.

Other important outcomes include- European Investment Bank (EIB)’s 450 million Euros loan towards construction of first metro line in Lucknow. EIB is planning to set up a representative branch for South Asia in New Delhi. Laying great emphasis on stepping up cooperation to counter violent and extreme radicalization, India and EU adopted Joint Declaration on Counter Terrorism and renewed Joint Declaration on Terrorism of 2010. While India anticipated a strong reaction from EU with regards to Italian Marines Case, in the joint statement EU endorsed Italy’s concerns of expeditious solution for the case. In a remarkable change of stance, Afghanistan issue surfaced in the joint statement with EU welcoming the commitment of international community to Afghanistan in the Transformation Decade from 2015 to 2024 and recognizing India as a major regional power. The Joint statement also stressed on a need for a stable and democratic Pakistan, acknowledged India’s efforts in supporting Nepal during the devastating earthquake and later in reconstruction efforts and encouraged dialogue with all regional partners to restore democracy in Maldives. Both sides welcomed the Iranian nuclear deal and condemned North Korea’s nuclear testing. EU expressed its interest in supporting Prime Minister’s flag ship programs- Make in India, Skill India, Clean India, Clean Ganga, Digital India and Urban Development Program. Welcoming the agenda for Sustainable Development, EU agreed to work together towards realization of COP21 agenda and appreciated India’s International Solar Alliance (ISA) initiative. The leaders have extended India-EU Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement until 2020 and endorsed the establishment of Common Agenda on Migration and Mobility (CAMM) between India and EU.

Modi during his brief visit, participated in the wreath laying ceremony at the Molenbeek metro station and met a delegation of business leaders. Modi known for his penchant for Indian Diaspora addressed the expats at the Brussels Expo Community Hall. During his one hour long talk in Hindi, he expressed grief over the terror attacks, took a veiled jibe at Pakistan for nurturing the rogue elements, and questioned the UN for failing to define terrorism and proscribing action against the countries that support terror elements. The Summit meetings were followed by bilateral talks with Belgian counterpart Charles Michel. Accompanied by minister for commerce and industry Nirmala Sitharaman, Modi strongly pitched for foreign investments in a meeting with business leaders.

While India has different degrees of closeness with various countries of EU, India couldn’t substantially collaborate with EU. Though the negotiations for Bilateral broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BITA) were initiated in 2007, the talks failed to achieve a breakthrough till now owing to EU’s concerns about trade barriers in India. EU is India’s largest regional trade while India is EU’s 9^th largest trading partner. The bilateral trade between the 28-countries conglomeration of EU as of 2014 is 72.5 billion Euros. EU is also one of the largest sources of FDI. While there is a perfunctory understanding between India and EU regarding various issues with cooperation in the fields of science and technology, people to people interaction yielding laudable efforts, there is still a greater scope for enhanced cooperation. Modi wrapping up bilateral visit to Brussels travelled to Washington for a two day long trip to attend fourth Nuclear Security Summit (NSS). Unlike Modi’s first trip to Washington, the current visit was low-key affair and hectic. Modi met the local Indian American community and started bilateral diplomatic engagements with New Zealand counterpart John Key, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, British Prime Minister David Cameron, renewed ties with Kazakhstan Prime Minister Nursultan Nazarbayev, Argentinian President Mauricio Macri and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe along the sidelines of the summit. India and the US signed a MoU to establish Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO).

At the NSS, Modi eloquently exhorted the urgent need for a “strong security culture”, condemned dubious posturing of “his terrorist is not my terrorist” which could abysmally thwart the attempts of annihilating the global terror-networks. In an alleged indirect swipe at China’s malefic obstruction of stalling India’s resolution to ban JeM chief Masoor Azad at the UN, Modi reiterated that terrorism transcends boundaries and appealed for a consolidated global action to nail the cancer of terror. A more compelling need for securing nuclear weapons was outlined by author in an earlier post. Modi strongly contested the allegation of serious security lapses in India’s nuclear program pledged to set up 23 response centers across the country to address nuclear or radiological emergency and Counter Nuclear Smuggling Team. Modi’s Washington visit brought to fore, the debate on India’s military alignments with US that can foreclose India’s option and contradicts the Nehruvian non-alignment policy. Indian Strategists are now seriously debating about the three possible agreements between India and US-the Logistics Support Agreement (LSA), the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA).

It is worth capitulating India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) objections to Obama’s remark at the NSS that India and Pakistan should ensure that they are moving the wrong direction while they develop military doctrines. MEA was irked by US’s lack of understanding about India’s defence posture and pronounced that India has never initiated military action against any neighboring country and is firmly committed to its no-first use of nuclear weapons policy. While US’s concerns of possible theft of small tactical weapons is understandable, it is ludicrous to lash out at India which has less than one-tenth of US’s nuclear weapons and when reports  suggest that India’s nuclear weapons development is tightly regulated and that of Pakistan’s is proliferating at dangerously alarming pace. Concluding his second leg of trip, Modi started for Riyadh.

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Modi @ Nuclear Security Summit: Relevance and achievements

With global terrorism becoming omniscient, nuclear safety and security is a subject of poignant interest. Spurt in the outlandish insidious terror attacks across the globe has raised the imminent dangers of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of the rogue elements. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Washington to attend the fourth and perhaps, the last in the series of Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) March 31-April 1^st. The summit is attended by leaders and representatives from 53 countries and four international organizations (EU, INTERPOL, UN and IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). India traumatized by four decades long tyranny of terrorism have greater stakes. Moreover with soaring aspirations of potentially utilizing nuclear power in a sustainable manner India has to integrate the global nuclear and ensure highest level of security to nuclear facilities. As a preemptive task, India is persistently seeking the membership of global nuclear regimes- Nuclear Suppliers Group, Missile Technology Control Regime, The Australian Group and the Wassenaar Arrangement.

India, an energy-thirsty country, has set daunting task of augmenting the energy supplies to 40 GW from renewable resources. As of now, the nuclear power capacity is 5780 Mega Watts from the 21 reactors across the country accounts for mere 2% of total energy generated. India intends to step up nuclear power generation to 65 GW by 2035 which is will be less than 5% of the overall installed capacity. Nuclear power generation in India would help in mitigating carbon emission by reducing the dependence on fossil fuels. But the expansion is subject to India’s agreements with countries like Russia, Australia, France, Japan, Canada and US. India’s nuclear ambitions can be easily surmounted by obtaining global membership in all the global nuclear regimes. Moreover as India seeks to expand its nuclear facilities, the issue nuclear safety and security becomes more crucial. Any breach in nuclear safety would not only undermine public confidence and deter nuclear powers to set shop in India but also contends India’s stance as a responsible nuclear power.

The Nuclear Security Summit, the brain child of President Obama is a follow-up initiative of his predecessor Bush. Five months after being elected to office, Obama on the eve of 10^th anniversary of Czechoslovakia’s entry into NATO at Prague in May 2009, expounded the dangers of nuclear terrorism and promised to evolve an international forum to secure dreadful nuclear weapons. The proliferation of nuclear weapons, the formidable ghosts of Cold war were initially tamed by the nuclear non-proliferation treaty that concluded in 1969. Subsequently with the genesis of export-control regimes procurement of the fissile material was streamlined. Post 9/11 with the emergence of terrorist groups, the idea of nuclear terrorism and its impending dangers on global security turned into a major predicament. In an attempt to strengthen and protect nuclear facilities & materials, Bush in 2005 pushed for an amendment in the Convention for Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) and the International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (ICSANT). Obama extended highest priority to nuclear terrorism and held first global summit on nuclear security at Washington in 2010. These were followed by Summits at Seoul in 2012 and The Hague in 2014. While the current summit at Washington is believed to be the last series, convening of future summits is left to the discretion of the next US president. But all the experts, leaders and officials from various countries who helped in organizing the summits will continue to work as the Nuclear Security Contact Group. IAEA is making all efforts to sustain the momentum generated by the nuclear security group by organizing annual ministerial meetings.

Obama in his open-ed, announced a new framework for civil nuclear policy under which all eligible IAEA member states can avail nuclear energy for peaceful purposes from the International Nuclear Fuel Bank built at Kazakhstan. Nations will be assured of nuclear fuel when their supplies are disrupted under exceptional circumstances. The bank build by IAEA will be reserve of Low Enrichment Uranium (LEU). IAEA has a guaranteed physical reserve maintained by Russian Federation at the International Uranium Enrichment Centre in Angarsk, Russia and LEU enrichment services in UK as well.

Besides, addressing the concerns of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists, NSS aims to restrict the usage of the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), beefing up security at nuclear facilities, implementation of national regulations and best practices, checking illicit trafficking of fissile material, building centers of excellence, increasing capacity building and strengthening nuclear security coordination. NSS has some notable achievements to its credit. It has successfully removed 3.2 tons of HEU and Plutonium, an amount enough to make 130 nuclear weapons from 14 countries. NSS has been instrumental in physically upgrading the security facilities at 32 nuclear repositories. It has installed radiation detection equipment at 328 border crossings, airports and other areas vulnerable to smuggling, down blended 15 tons of HEU to LEU. It furthered verified shutdown of 24 HEU reactors or converted them to use alternate fuels in 15 countries including India’s Apsara nuclear reactor.

NSS thus far, has generated momentum ensuring highest level of security to nuclear facilities. But unlike other multilateral arrangements, NSS has narrow focus and advocates characteristic house basket diplomacy, wherein the participating countries as a token of agreement voluntarily announce measures or initiatives to uphold the objectives of NSS. Since the 2^nd Summit meeting at Seoul, members have come together for gift basket diplomacy wherein members would make bundle of pledges. India has thus far attended all the summits except the one in 2014 indicating its commitment towards nuclear safety. India has accordingly, pledged $1 million to the Nuclear Security Fund launched by IAEA and as part of house gift established a Global Center of Excellence for Nuclear Energy Partnership (GCENEP) in Bahadurgarh Haryana. This center on Nuclear Security Training expected to begin its operations in 2017 made significant progress by conducting international workshops and conference since 2011. Interestingly, NSS doesn’t end in signing a master-document and hence a major lacuna of this forum is absence of legally binding outcome. Also NSS neglects nearly 83% of the HEU and Plutonium held in military stockpiles and focused on the stocks meant for civilian use. Moreover there is no institutional set up to carry out the objectives. Hence to sustain the enthusiasm and faith reposed in the congruent ideas of NSS, five organizations are entrusted with the responsibility of implementing the objectives. These include- UN (General Assembly and Security Council), IAEA, Interpol, Global Initiative to combat nuclear terrorism (GICNT) co-chaired by Russia and US and G7 global partnership against spread of materials of mass destruction.

With reports emerging that major non-state actors like ISIS and others contemplating on acquiring nuclear weapons and fissile material, the threat of nuclear terrorism becomes more pronounced. Strategists are now concerned about various scenarios that can be potentially dangerous and as plausible effects might transcend beyond boundaries in such events. These include terrorists raiding a nuclear facility, stealing a functional bomb, obtaining fissile material or highly enriched Uranium and eventually building a dirty crude bomb and attacks on nuclear reactors. David Headley during his confessions indicated that Mumbai terror attacks of 2008 originally included a reconnaissance of BARC (Bhabha Atomic Research Centre) which houses Dhruva reactor, the largest source of weapons-grade plutonium.

With an unprecedented increase in various terror outfits operating across the globe, propensity of destructive nuclear weapons falling into rogue hands increased tremendously. South Asian region known for highest density of human population also harbors huge amounts of fissile material. India under Modi is all geared up to take a leadership role in South Asia but its ascent is constrained by lack of transparency in nuclear security and safety provided to its own facilities. The leakage of heavy water used for cooling nuclear reactor core from the Kakrapar Atomic Power Station (KAPS) in Surat district that caused temporary shutdown exposed lacunae of India’s nuclear program. India has made significant progress in the last two years and Modi highlighted the progress made including ratifying the additional protocol of IAEA at the Summit. Further with a commitment to establish an independent nuclear regulatory body and an assurance of strengthening security at nuclear facilities Modi boosted India’s nuclear credentials globally. Other significant announcements included-making nuclear safety a national priority, popularizing use of alternative isotopes like Cesium-137 and Molybednum-99, setting up counter nuclear smuggling team. India will host a workshop with IAEA experts on International Physical Protection Assessment Service (IPPAS). New Delhi will be part of trilateral initiative of NSS chairs on strengthening nuclear security implementation. India will now join three gift baskets of counter nuclear smuggling, nuclear security contact group in Vienna and in coordinating best practices through Centers of Excellence including its own. With these emphatic pledges at NSS, India reiterated its stand of responsible nuclear power. Modi made a veiled at Pakistan by hinting at the collusion between the military and the non-state actors and warned of subsequent disastrous consequences on the world at large. Ahead of the NSS summit India has pledged $1 million towards Nuclear Security Fund.

Globally with hegemonic wars between US and China on rise, China is now desperate on keeping its 150 ICMB’s ready to counter the 450 land-based ICBM’s on alert. The Summit comes at a time when the World is bracing the travails of unannounced nuclear testing of North Korea, clamor of maritime disputes in the South China Sea and an aggressive posturing by China  in terms of unveiling its longest range intercontinental missile, DF-41. Incidentally US and Russia together control nearly 98% of World’s nuclear weapons and dispassionate commitment by these nations can significantly change the dynamics of the nuclear terrorism. Both nations under New START (Strategic Arms Reduction) treaty of 2011 have mutually agreed to systematically limit the strategic arms by 2018. But prospective adherence to the objectives of treaty is under contention with relations between the nations hitting a new low. Moreover with miffed Russian leadership skipping the summit hopes of strategic reduction of arms are dissipated. Similarly, Pakistan the epicenter of global terrorism and hub of non-state actors too pulled off at the eleventh hour. Citing domestic crisis following the Lahore blast that targeted Christian minorities, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif refrained from attending the summit. With crucial player like Pakistan escaping the international scrutiny, experts raised doubts about the impact and relevance of nuclear security and safety.

Besides, several critics in US were highly critical of the summit since they opined that summit interfered with functioning of IAEA. In fact an international movement against nuclear weapons Global Zero took out a rally in Washington’s Mc Pherson Square drawing attention to 15000 odd nuclear weapons in World. They argue that nuclear security and safety is a myth as along as such weapons exist.

Obama successfully scripted diplomatic victories by pioneering the enforcement of historic Iranian nuclear deal and for eliminating HEU from 12 countries. But his duplicity is glaringly obvious with US President planning to modernize nuclear weapons over a period of 30 years costing $1 trillion.  Nuclear Threat Initiative claims that there is no perceptible improvement in security measures around the nuclear facilities in US. Meanwhile the spurious comments of Donald Trump arguing that US allies Japan and South Korea be empowered to have their own arsenal contradicts the proposition of non-proliferation advocated by Obama. The discussions on nuclear security in the wake of recent bomb attacks in Belgium opened a conduit of controversies. A report of Federation of American scientists indicates that Kleine Brogel Air Base 60 miles from Brussels airport has been store house of nuclear arsenal of US since 1963. It is also established that US has hoarded its weapons in the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Turkey. While it has disposed most of the weapons along the East European border after the collapse of Soviet Union, military reports suggest that nuclear storehouses of US in some of European countries including Belarus and in Africa are intact. With perilous terror network spreading tentacles across the globe safeguarding nuclear repositories has become a Herculean task. US currently spends $100 million to maintain nuclear weapons in Europe. 

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Marshall Islands Sues India

The Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI), in the Pacific Ocean with a population of 70,000 is creating ripples in what is deemed to be a David vs Goliath challenge. Marshall Islands sued nine nations in possession of nuclear Weapons which include: The US, Russia, France, UK and China that signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968 and other four nations: India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea containing nuclear arsenal at International Court of Justice (ICJ), Hague. Law suits were filed against these nations for their assiduous modernisation of nuclear weapons despite the pledge of cessation of nuclear arms race at an early date. It also appealed for disarming of nuclear weapons under a strict and effective international. It contends the NPT nations for the breach of the treaty and for legally violating its objectives. Under the customary international law, it reprimanded the non NPT members of indulging in quantitative accumulation of the nuclear weapons, qualitative up gradation of nuclear arsenals and for engaging in nuclear race contrary to the nuclear disarmament objectives.

On March 7^th Marshall Islands has first moved case against India and its hearing will be held first followed by those against Pakistan and Britain. It charged India for failing to curtail the nuclear race in the region. While case was filed against nine countries, India, Pakistan and Britain alone are heard as these countries recognise the ICJ’s authority. China replied that it will not accept the court’s jurisdiction and other nations don’t have a binding to adhere to court’s ruling.

Marshall Islands in its appeal requested the ICJ to order the nations to rein-in on the rapid escalation of nuclear arms at an early date and to comply with the principle of nuclear disarmament within one year of the judgement. The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation which supports the lawsuits informed that there are over 16,000 nuclear weapons worldwide and nearly 94% of them are with the US and Russia despite signing several treaties like START in 2010.

During World War II US occupied Marshall Islands and from 1946 to 1958 it conducted 67 nuclear tests on the Bikini Atolls of Marshall Islands including the most powerful Castle Bravo test of March 1^st 1954. It was the largest nuclear detonator ever blasted. This hydrogen bomb was 1000 times more powerful than the device dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. These tests resulted in death of a several fishermen and annihilation of two atolls. In 1956 the United States Atomic Energy Commission, declared Marshall Islands as the most contaminated place in the World.

By suing the big countries involved in the arms race, Marshall Islands desperately wanted to draw World’s attention to destruction and devastation endured by these islanders over several decades. In its appeal, the islanders severely berated the nations for testing the weapons of poison and mass destruction away from their own shores and testing elsewhere.  Located at an altitude of 7ft from sea, these islands are precariously poised and threatened by the rising sea levels. Rapid climate changes is taking a huge toll on the island rendering it highly submersion prone. The RMI a conglomeration of 29 atolls and 5 isolated islands so far paid heavy price for the indiscriminate nuclear testing. Islanders incurred irreparable, catastrophic damages due to severe environmental changes further the radiation fall of the nuclear tests caused radiogenic cancer and abnormal birth defects.

RPI filed law suits for enduring the radiation contamination and to address the disputes between nations by invoking the painful history of its own land but not for accruing monetary compensation. This move was aimed to rekindle global concern and create awareness towards unimpeded nuclear proliferation and its disastrous consequences on the mankind.

International lawyers inspired by the courageous move of the diminutive nation devoted time in compiling the law suits. Even if court rules the case in favour of the islands prospects of the nuclear nations heeding to such judgement is exceedingly low. But the action will draw substantial attention towards the most neglected issue of nuclear disarmament.  Earlier in 1997 ICJ has issued an advisory urging the nuclear powers to display restraint in proliferation of nuclear arms. Two decades have elapsed since the issuance of non-advisory opinion but nations hardly made any attempts to this end.

While treaties prohibiting the use of chemical, biological and other weapons of mass destruction have been successfully enforced, possession of nuclear weapons have never come under scanner. The issue has merit as the world is going through international tension and it is more relevant than ever as this comes days after the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ordering his troops to ready the nuclear arsenal for pre-emptive use. In the recent meeting convened at Vienna on humanitarian law, scientists warned that use of even a small percentage of nuclear arsenals would drastically change the atmosphere causing drop in temperature resulting in massive crop failures. While nations have qualms about the climate changes, what can they hope to gain with peaceful resolutions on climate change with looming threat of burgeoning nuclear arsenals set to annihilate the world? Islanders are appealing to the World by drawing parallel between climate change issues and nuclear disarmament as they both affect security and survivability of human kind.

 

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