Escalating Frailties between the US and China

Abrasions are evidenced in the Sino-US relationships of late and mild tenor of the White House during President Xi’s state visit to Washington clearly underlines the same. Five contentious issues have cast their spell on the bilateral engagements which were addressed in the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (S&ED) that preceded Xi’s visit to US. The murky issues include- undeterred land reclamation in the South China Sea (SCS). Though the constructions doesn’t intrinsically threaten US interests, unimpeded land filling might be a potential threat to the freedom of navigation. Second, in a major breach to cyber security, Chinese hackers intruded into the federal government’s Office of Personnel Management (OPM) Information System and accessed personal data of 21 million employees. This has been second instance of major cyber espionage of China-based code breakers. Furious US media anticipated Obama administration to impose sanctions on China instead the issue was sorted out with both countries agreeing to set up cyberspace working group. Third, China’s new law that critically castigates the organizations (NGO’s) of the US and its allies working in China as “foreign elements” fomenting trouble. Under the policy of internet censorship of September 2015 several websites were either blocked/banned or censored completely. Chinese government imposed tight rights on social media to weed out subversion to its authority. In 2014, Reporters without borders, a France-based watchdog ranked China 175 among 180 countries in its World Wide index of press freedom. Fourth, in a major economic realignment challenging the western hegemony China proposed to institute Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and managed to pull US allies into its ambit and conversely China bemoaned its exclusion in the trade pact TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership).  Finally the least contentious of all has been a lack of understanding in the Bilateral Investment and Trade (BIT) regarding the areas where foreign investment will not be allowed. The joint statement released by both leaders during their bilateral talks addressed most of the issues. Despite assurances from China that artificial land filling activity in SCS will not be a territorial extension facilitating military deployment in the disputed areas, the US was skeptical.

Major crux of Obama foreign policy has been “Pivot to Asia” perceived as “China’s Containment Policy” by Beijing. Under this doctrine US plans to deploy 60% of its maritime assets in the Pacific region by 2020. In reality, the objective of US is to contain the Chinese juggernaut from becoming a major power in Asia. Increased assertiveness of China in SCS has not only alarmed ASEAN but the US which is under increased pressure from its allies and Pentagon. Actually US has been contemplating on exercising Freedom of Navigation of Operation in May but was stalled by White House and State Department. The last time US embarked on navigating through international waters was in 2012. Just a month after Xi pledged not to militarize the reclaimed islands, US wanted to confirm it. On 28^th October the US in a bid to assert Freedom of Navigation (FON) deployed USS Lassen, a guided-missile destroyer to dive within the 12 nautical mile range of the Subi reef of China escalating the tensions between the two countries. The planned move was executed after intense deliberations to minimize military confrontations between the countries. The US destroyer which stayed within 12 nautical mile of Subi reef for less than an hour was followed by a Chinese missile destroyer Lanzhou and patrol boat Taizhou. Beijing immediately responded aggressively condemning the operation as an “irresponsible act of brinkmanship”. Subi reef which is part of Spartly’s archipelago is much closer to Philippines than to China. With massive dredging operations, the reef was converted into an island carrying a runway for military aircraft. It was selected as under the United Nations Convention on Laws of Sea (UNCLOS) a low elevation reef (one which submerges during high tide) is not entitled to a 12-nautical mile territorial limit. In fact beyond 500 mt safety range any international foreign ship or aircraft is free to operate.

In the meanwhile as a major blow to Chinese sovereignty claims, Permanent Court of Arbitration, Hague ruled that it has jurisdiction to hear territorial claims of Philippines which has lodged case against China in 2013 seeking rights to exploit SCS in its 200 nautical mile EEZ. China has boycotted the hearings at the Hague and rejected court’s authority. This is contrast to New Delhi’s acceptance of International award on maritime territorial dispute between India and Bangladesh which resulted in peaceful resolution of disputes in Bay of Bengal waters.

Nearly 90% of World trade is routed through seas nations are seriously concerned about the freedom of navigation through international waters. In contravention to traditional thinking of land security is more important than sea, nations are investing more in protecting their maritime interests. For past several decades US’s colossal navy dominated the blue waters which was challenged once in 1970 by the Soviet Union briefly. The huge financial burden of developing the navy took a toll on erstwhile USSR’s exchequer eventually leading to its collapse.  China suffered a humiliation in 1996 at hands of Washington as it tried to assert its hegemony over estranged province of Taiwan, an ally of the US. China has vowed to send off US from the Western Pacific region. Congruently it began investing heavily in developing a robust maritime fleet and prospecting to turn Indian Ocean a “Chinese Lake”, consistently guarding all the economically vital sea lanes.

The friendship between US and China appeared to have reached a crescendo in 2011 when leaders President Obama and Hu Jintao reinforced their commitment for a “positive, cooperative and comprehensive US-China relationship”. Since then an effective communication channel was established steering nations towards enhanced cooperation in economic and strategic issues.

The chasis of engagement witnessed a dramatic shift in 2012 when Xi Jinping has become President of China. He advocated a new doctrine of “major-country relations”, claiming parity with US and fostered relationship characterized by lack of confrontation, conflict, mutual respect and win-win cooperation. Xi unlike his predecessors was more confident, aggressive, bold and assiduously toiled towards rejuvenation of Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). He believed that his “China dream” can be ascertained by strengthening Chinese Military. He was indeed supreme architect of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR), instrumental in institutionalizing New Development Bank and envisioned the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB). These overreaching initiatives coupled with extensive global diplomatic maneuvering, enlivened Chinese aspirations of emerging into “Asian pivot” and as a “rising super power”. Beijing’s sphere of influence too began to grow substantially. Strategic deployment of military steadily increased in the “Near seas” (Yellow sea, East China Sea, South China Sea), the regions where China had disputes over the territorial claims of various islands. China slowly heightened its surveillance initially in the East China Sea where it has territorial disputes over the Senakaku Islands with Japan by imposing Chinese Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), compelling nations flying over the region to seek permission. It now intends to extend its maritime hegemony to the 9-dashed line region which is almost 90% of the South China Sea. China is claiming an “inherent” and “indisputable” sovereignty over the region by detailing the maps which dates back to 1947. Socotra rock, in the Yellow sea is a disputed submerged rock, territorially claimed by both South Korea and China.

In fact the nine-dashed line region includes the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) regions of five other countries that have claims. The regions in the territorial disputes in the SCS include Paracel Islands, called as Huangyan islands in China (with Taiwan and Vietnam), Spartlys Islands (Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei and Vietnam), Scarborough Shoals (Philippines and Taiwan).  China is rigorous endeavoring to add a touch of academic gloss to strengthen its claims over the regions within the nine-dashed line region academically. It created a think-tank, Institute of China-America Studies in Arlington Virginia, an outpost of its National Institute for South China Sea Studies at Hainan. SCS has become region of fiercest rivalry with China blatantly stepping up land reclamation activity. According to a latest estimate China has so far reclaimed 1170 hectares of artificial land converting atolls, shoals into full-fledged islands. China defended it saying that it was trying to catch up with the construction activity of other countries who have already developed extensive structures in this region. Philippines and Taiwan constructed air strips on the Thitu and Itu Abha islands in the Spartly chain of islands. But the speed, scale and sophistication of Chinese constructions are truly intimidating. The reef-turned islands are extensively developed to function as command and control centers for China’s paramilitary, air and naval patrols, help in resource extraction and rescue operations. Defiant reclamation activities of China are a potential threat to the peace, stability and mutual co-existence. ASEAN leaders flustered by the trade hegemony, diplomatic leverage of China are now turning to allies for support.

Despite repeated objections raised by the neighboring countries and the US, in contravention to the objectives of the UNCLOS stealthily China is making all perspicacious efforts- legally, academically, strategically to gain control over the SCS. When questioned about these rather quick developments China quips back saying that it is emulating the tactics of the West who were into this business since ages.

Presently 30 % of maritime trade of which $1.2 trillion worth goods bound for US pass through SCS. The region accounts for 10% of World fisheries production and Spartly’s islands are believed to contain 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic ft gas. Muscle-flexing, intensive patrols, encroaching on other claimants’ waters, construction of artificial islands blatantly ignoring international order and freedom of seas has spurred US into action. There are several instances of flare-ups between China& Vietnam, China& Philippines in recent past that threatened the mutual co-existence in the region. US is not party to UNCLOS has chosen to navigate through uninhabited Subi reef that has no territorial limits and EEZ under the international law to allay fears of its allies. US meanwhile supported its actions for raising no protests when five Chinese naval passed through American waters near Alaska days before Obama’s visit to the state.

FON exercise facilitated US to win back credibility of its allies in the region but periodic maritime maneuvers in SCS might entail US to be portrayed as an aggressor, destabilizing the region. Enthusiastic strategists are wary that recent saber-rattling might in inevitably lead to a war with both countries refusing to budge from their stance. But with both nations currently complementing each other’s economic structure and clocking a prodigious trade volume of $555.1 billion it is highly unlikely that these warring factions would ever strike each other. In the meanwhile, China under the pretext of threats to its sovereignty would strengthen its blue-water navy consistently.

 

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