Aamir Khan's Selective Intolerance

The sanctimonious debate of intolerance once again received a shot arm with Aamir Khan raising alarm saying that his wife is now scared to live in this country and worried about future of their son. Sadly while the intolerance bandwagon surely missed the support of the one of the celebrity Khans but glad to know the personal ruminations of the one of the most adored actor. Just like the intolerance remarks of Shahrukh Khan, this Khan too received great attention of the print and visual media. It is distressing as how the most celebrated icons of Bollywood could grade the very country intolerant that had made them what they are now. The personal coffers of all these superstars could have been empty but for the patronage of the country which is still a Hindu-majority nation. Indian audience are in awe for the incredible acting skills of this Khan, who in various roles have emoted and impressed them be it Sarfarosh, Lagaan, Ghazini, Taare Zameen Par or PK. Despite the denigrating and hurtful assault on the rituals of the Hindus in the PK movie, Aamir Khan could get away without any censure (and in fact minted millions) but for the tolerance of people. Lest he envisages making a film like PK on any other religion Aamir could have had the real taste of tolerance of people living elsewhere.  It is a whimsical paradigm when the contentious media back Aamir and Shahrukh that the exceptional skill of these actors who have anyway turned them into superstars irrespective of the country.

For many reasons the statement made by Aamir Khan captured the attention and imagination of people from various walks of life. The myriad hues acquired can partly be attributed to the nationalistic appeal of his roles in Sarfarosh, Rang de Basanti and Laagan which are cherished by Indian audience. Besides, he was brand ambassador of Incredible India and Swacch Bharat (he was chosen for the task despite his allegations on Modi). Secondly for not firing shots directly or avoided being straight-forward and majority believed that Aamir is making the statements on intolerance using his wife’s name. While calling the statement “should we move out of India?” made by his wife as disastrous, he didn’t condemn and in fact alluded that similar sense existed in him. Interestingly Aamir donned a role of benevolent messiah through his debut role in Satyameva Jayate, a popular social show which made him popular among masses. People believed that he had a broader grass root level connect and hence Indian public dissented his peevish remarks.

The Bollywood fraternity which is now a fractured lot thanks to the deafening voices of overpowering condemnations and retributions towards the intolerance debates two major factions have surfaced. While a faction of Bollywood extended unflinching support to the opinions voiced by Aamir another faction advised him to instil hope in society. In sharp contrast the instance has drew severe public flak which is mirrored clearly in the public opinion survey conducted by Times of India wherein whopping 88% believed that India is tolerant. Unlike the initial remarks made by artistes, intellectuals, scientists and writers who damned India’s rising intolerance, the statement made by Aamir was immediately condemned by several people. Perhaps, this too indicates a change in people’s mood which now had reached a break-even point wherein no more recriminatory adages about India might be tolerated.

In the wake of eruption of brutal terrorist attacks globally Indians and perhaps World at large is beginning to wonder how a country as diverse and large as India is relatively peaceful. Of late Indic values are held in high esteem for fostering an inclusiveness in society. If not for the accommodating nature of Indian society despite being burdened by burgeoning population it has been sheltering millions of refugees from other South Asian countries. It is startling as how the emperors of Bollywood after making sweeping statements on the basic identity of the country except to walk away without drawing the ire of irate audience. While as a celebrity he/she has every right to voice their public opinions they too must be prepared to welcome the dissenting opinions of people instead of branding society as “intolerant”. By and large it time that people enjoying a respectable position in society not simply walk away making ludicrous comments instead must be prudent enough to suggest ideas to better the society. All these icons of intellect and creativity who command people’s loyalty and love must at least do something for social good. These “chosen few” who have resources, finances and connect with people should stop shying away from problems and start working out solutions to weed out the ills of society.

On a different note, celebrities are accorded a special importance and are looked upon by the society as role models. Sweeping, outlandish statements on pretext of venting out personal prejudices must be questioned. Common man and hordes of fans who blindly follow these celebrities are gravely misled by the contorted views opined by these people. The status of a celebrity comes with a responsibility .It would be prudent that people who are showered with unconditional love must refrain from making immature statements and engage in constructive criticism. Open-ended statements will have serious implications and consequences.

How could Aamir Khan, aside making a mark of his own on the big screen began to rock and cajole people to make a bit of social thinking through Satyameva Jayate failed to alert audience about the atrocities of those times? It is intriguing as how emotional Aamir who could become teary-eyed at the instance of female feoticide, police atrocities etc., could never shed tears or contemplate on the massacre of 1984 or brutal bombings endured by Mumbai? How could his conscience remain so stoic to the plight of Kashmiri pandits and not urge him to speak out all the while? Why did he oblige to be the Brand Ambassador of Incredible India when he could be ruthless in casting aspersions about the tolerance of very country he intends to promote? Does this indicate the lure of money is more tantalizing than the dubious thoughts he harbors for the country and the people who made him a celebrity? Why is there a sudden urge to castigate the Indianness and label the country as intolerant?

These Bollywood icons who vociferously seek parity with the Hollywood stars, should now emulate the sense of social responsibility of their peers in western lands before pointing fingers at the government or at the Indian society at large. Till now they reveled in the unstinted love and patronage of masses and amassed wealth it is time to give back something in return.

Moreover Aamir Khan is widely respected in film circles for his brilliant logical thinking. What stops him from teaming up with his wife and aggrieved Kiran Rao, a short film maker to come up with logical documentaries that can stem the rising tide of intolerance envisaged by them? During the making of Satyameva Jayate Aamir had illustrated that several man-hours were expended in bring out the ills afflicting the society to fore. With his previous experience why can’t he address the issue of intolerance in Indian society? Is it only big bucks and remunerative tie-ups with Reliance Foundation could alone propel these star actors into action and stir their (articulated) conscience?

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Escalating Frailties between the US and China

Abrasions are evidenced in the Sino-US relationships of late and mild tenor of the White House during President Xi’s state visit to Washington clearly underlines the same. Five contentious issues have cast their spell on the bilateral engagements which were addressed in the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (S&ED) that preceded Xi’s visit to US. The murky issues include- undeterred land reclamation in the South China Sea (SCS). Though the constructions doesn’t intrinsically threaten US interests, unimpeded land filling might be a potential threat to the freedom of navigation. Second, in a major breach to cyber security, Chinese hackers intruded into the federal government’s Office of Personnel Management (OPM) Information System and accessed personal data of 21 million employees. This has been second instance of major cyber espionage of China-based code breakers. Furious US media anticipated Obama administration to impose sanctions on China instead the issue was sorted out with both countries agreeing to set up cyberspace working group. Third, China’s new law that critically castigates the organizations (NGO’s) of the US and its allies working in China as “foreign elements” fomenting trouble. Under the policy of internet censorship of September 2015 several websites were either blocked/banned or censored completely. Chinese government imposed tight rights on social media to weed out subversion to its authority. In 2014, Reporters without borders, a France-based watchdog ranked China 175 among 180 countries in its World Wide index of press freedom. Fourth, in a major economic realignment challenging the western hegemony China proposed to institute Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and managed to pull US allies into its ambit and conversely China bemoaned its exclusion in the trade pact TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership).  Finally the least contentious of all has been a lack of understanding in the Bilateral Investment and Trade (BIT) regarding the areas where foreign investment will not be allowed. The joint statement released by both leaders during their bilateral talks addressed most of the issues. Despite assurances from China that artificial land filling activity in SCS will not be a territorial extension facilitating military deployment in the disputed areas, the US was skeptical.

Major crux of Obama foreign policy has been “Pivot to Asia” perceived as “China’s Containment Policy” by Beijing. Under this doctrine US plans to deploy 60% of its maritime assets in the Pacific region by 2020. In reality, the objective of US is to contain the Chinese juggernaut from becoming a major power in Asia. Increased assertiveness of China in SCS has not only alarmed ASEAN but the US which is under increased pressure from its allies and Pentagon. Actually US has been contemplating on exercising Freedom of Navigation of Operation in May but was stalled by White House and State Department. The last time US embarked on navigating through international waters was in 2012. Just a month after Xi pledged not to militarize the reclaimed islands, US wanted to confirm it. On 28^th October the US in a bid to assert Freedom of Navigation (FON) deployed USS Lassen, a guided-missile destroyer to dive within the 12 nautical mile range of the Subi reef of China escalating the tensions between the two countries. The planned move was executed after intense deliberations to minimize military confrontations between the countries. The US destroyer which stayed within 12 nautical mile of Subi reef for less than an hour was followed by a Chinese missile destroyer Lanzhou and patrol boat Taizhou. Beijing immediately responded aggressively condemning the operation as an “irresponsible act of brinkmanship”. Subi reef which is part of Spartly’s archipelago is much closer to Philippines than to China. With massive dredging operations, the reef was converted into an island carrying a runway for military aircraft. It was selected as under the United Nations Convention on Laws of Sea (UNCLOS) a low elevation reef (one which submerges during high tide) is not entitled to a 12-nautical mile territorial limit. In fact beyond 500 mt safety range any international foreign ship or aircraft is free to operate.

In the meanwhile as a major blow to Chinese sovereignty claims, Permanent Court of Arbitration, Hague ruled that it has jurisdiction to hear territorial claims of Philippines which has lodged case against China in 2013 seeking rights to exploit SCS in its 200 nautical mile EEZ. China has boycotted the hearings at the Hague and rejected court’s authority. This is contrast to New Delhi’s acceptance of International award on maritime territorial dispute between India and Bangladesh which resulted in peaceful resolution of disputes in Bay of Bengal waters.

Nearly 90% of World trade is routed through seas nations are seriously concerned about the freedom of navigation through international waters. In contravention to traditional thinking of land security is more important than sea, nations are investing more in protecting their maritime interests. For past several decades US’s colossal navy dominated the blue waters which was challenged once in 1970 by the Soviet Union briefly. The huge financial burden of developing the navy took a toll on erstwhile USSR’s exchequer eventually leading to its collapse.  China suffered a humiliation in 1996 at hands of Washington as it tried to assert its hegemony over estranged province of Taiwan, an ally of the US. China has vowed to send off US from the Western Pacific region. Congruently it began investing heavily in developing a robust maritime fleet and prospecting to turn Indian Ocean a “Chinese Lake”, consistently guarding all the economically vital sea lanes.

The friendship between US and China appeared to have reached a crescendo in 2011 when leaders President Obama and Hu Jintao reinforced their commitment for a “positive, cooperative and comprehensive US-China relationship”. Since then an effective communication channel was established steering nations towards enhanced cooperation in economic and strategic issues.

The chasis of engagement witnessed a dramatic shift in 2012 when Xi Jinping has become President of China. He advocated a new doctrine of “major-country relations”, claiming parity with US and fostered relationship characterized by lack of confrontation, conflict, mutual respect and win-win cooperation. Xi unlike his predecessors was more confident, aggressive, bold and assiduously toiled towards rejuvenation of Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). He believed that his “China dream” can be ascertained by strengthening Chinese Military. He was indeed supreme architect of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR), instrumental in institutionalizing New Development Bank and envisioned the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB). These overreaching initiatives coupled with extensive global diplomatic maneuvering, enlivened Chinese aspirations of emerging into “Asian pivot” and as a “rising super power”. Beijing’s sphere of influence too began to grow substantially. Strategic deployment of military steadily increased in the “Near seas” (Yellow sea, East China Sea, South China Sea), the regions where China had disputes over the territorial claims of various islands. China slowly heightened its surveillance initially in the East China Sea where it has territorial disputes over the Senakaku Islands with Japan by imposing Chinese Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), compelling nations flying over the region to seek permission. It now intends to extend its maritime hegemony to the 9-dashed line region which is almost 90% of the South China Sea. China is claiming an “inherent” and “indisputable” sovereignty over the region by detailing the maps which dates back to 1947. Socotra rock, in the Yellow sea is a disputed submerged rock, territorially claimed by both South Korea and China.

In fact the nine-dashed line region includes the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) regions of five other countries that have claims. The regions in the territorial disputes in the SCS include Paracel Islands, called as Huangyan islands in China (with Taiwan and Vietnam), Spartlys Islands (Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei and Vietnam), Scarborough Shoals (Philippines and Taiwan).  China is rigorous endeavoring to add a touch of academic gloss to strengthen its claims over the regions within the nine-dashed line region academically. It created a think-tank, Institute of China-America Studies in Arlington Virginia, an outpost of its National Institute for South China Sea Studies at Hainan. SCS has become region of fiercest rivalry with China blatantly stepping up land reclamation activity. According to a latest estimate China has so far reclaimed 1170 hectares of artificial land converting atolls, shoals into full-fledged islands. China defended it saying that it was trying to catch up with the construction activity of other countries who have already developed extensive structures in this region. Philippines and Taiwan constructed air strips on the Thitu and Itu Abha islands in the Spartly chain of islands. But the speed, scale and sophistication of Chinese constructions are truly intimidating. The reef-turned islands are extensively developed to function as command and control centers for China’s paramilitary, air and naval patrols, help in resource extraction and rescue operations. Defiant reclamation activities of China are a potential threat to the peace, stability and mutual co-existence. ASEAN leaders flustered by the trade hegemony, diplomatic leverage of China are now turning to allies for support.

Despite repeated objections raised by the neighboring countries and the US, in contravention to the objectives of the UNCLOS stealthily China is making all perspicacious efforts- legally, academically, strategically to gain control over the SCS. When questioned about these rather quick developments China quips back saying that it is emulating the tactics of the West who were into this business since ages.

Presently 30 % of maritime trade of which $1.2 trillion worth goods bound for US pass through SCS. The region accounts for 10% of World fisheries production and Spartly’s islands are believed to contain 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic ft gas. Muscle-flexing, intensive patrols, encroaching on other claimants’ waters, construction of artificial islands blatantly ignoring international order and freedom of seas has spurred US into action. There are several instances of flare-ups between China& Vietnam, China& Philippines in recent past that threatened the mutual co-existence in the region. US is not party to UNCLOS has chosen to navigate through uninhabited Subi reef that has no territorial limits and EEZ under the international law to allay fears of its allies. US meanwhile supported its actions for raising no protests when five Chinese naval passed through American waters near Alaska days before Obama’s visit to the state.

FON exercise facilitated US to win back credibility of its allies in the region but periodic maritime maneuvers in SCS might entail US to be portrayed as an aggressor, destabilizing the region. Enthusiastic strategists are wary that recent saber-rattling might in inevitably lead to a war with both countries refusing to budge from their stance. But with both nations currently complementing each other’s economic structure and clocking a prodigious trade volume of $555.1 billion it is highly unlikely that these warring factions would ever strike each other. In the meanwhile, China under the pretext of threats to its sovereignty would strengthen its blue-water navy consistently.

 

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Engaging with East Asia

India’s “Act East Policy” advocated by Modi at the 12^th ASEAN-India summit at Nay Pi Taw will be further bolstered by his visit to Malaysia and Singapore from November 21-24. Modi during his visit to Malaysia will attend 13^th ASEAN- India Summit and the 10^th East Asian Summit at Kuala Lumpur. With a keen focus on trade and strategic cooperation Modi is likely to intensify engagement with ASEAN group.

Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a strategic conglomeration of 10 countries and created in 1967 to strengthen economic growth, social progress, regional solidarity and cooperation.  The member states occupy a region of 4.4 million sq. kilometers, nearly half of the size of US with a combined population of 626 million which is 8.8% of global population and economy valued more than $ 2.6 trillion, making it the seventh largest economic entity after US, China, Japan, Germany, France and United Kingdom. Following the Bangkok declaration in 1967 initially five countries Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand came together to create ASEAN with a sole aim of achieving economic development. Brunei Darussalam joined in 1984 barely a week after its independence becoming the sixth member of the group. Vietnam joined in 1995 followed by Laos and Myanmar in 1997 and the last one to join the group was Cambodia in 1999. The most laudable achievement of the group towards regional peace and security has been signing of the South East Asian Nuclear Free Zone in 1995 which came into force in 2001 following the ratification of the treaty by Philippines. ASEAN is close to European Union in its functioning. The bloc in a bid to integrate with its regional counterparts created ASEAN plus three by extending membership to China, South Korea and Japan in 1997. ASEAN was given observer status in UN General Assembly and in turn it made UN its dialogue partner. ASEAN plus three expanded itself into East Asian Summit (EAS) including India, Australia, New Zealand, US and Russia.  ASEAN plus six which became EAS in 2005 held its inaugural session in Kuala Lumpur. It later expanded to include US and Russia in 2011. EAS meetings are now held annually with ASEAN countries retaining the leadership and the discussions of the meet are focused on trade, energy, security and regional community building. The concept of the East Asian group owes its existence to the idea floated by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad for an East Asian economic Caucus in 1991.

India’s engagement with ASEAN progressed from sectorial dialogue in 1992 to full dialogue partnership in 1995. This formally elevated into India-ASEAN summit in 2002 at Phnom Penh, Cambodia since then summits were held annually. India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit was held in 2012 at Delhi to commemorate a decade long cooperation, wherein India-ASEAN partnership was elevated to strategic partnership. The collaboration between India and ASEAN transcends various dimensions ranging from summits, ministerial meetings, senior meetings, expert levels and the frame works like the ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum),  Post Ministerial Conference (PMC)+1, EAS, Mekong- Ganga Cooperation and Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) which helps to enhance regional dialogue and regional integration. So far India and ASEAN have signed joint declarations for cooperation on combating international terrorism (2003) under the Treaty of Cooperation in South East Asia (TAC), Plan of action for partnership for Peace, Progress and Shared Prosperity (2004-2010). In 2012 ASEAN-India Eminent Persons Group (EPG) was established to explore ways to deepen and widen partnership. Finally in 2015, India established a separate Diplomatic Mission to ASEAN to work in tandem with the ASEAN secretariat in Jakarta.

ASEAN is India’s fourth largest trade partner while India is sixth largest trade partner of ASEAN. The volume of trade is $76.52 billion with India importing goods valued at $ 44.71 billion while exports stood at $ 31.81 billion. Though the leaders have set a target of $100 billion to be achieved by 2015, trade transactions fell critically short of the target. But India’s trade prospects with ASEAN and its economic integration with region received a major fillip with successful ratification of the free trade agreement by January 2015 and India- ASEAN Trade in Services and Investment came into effect from July 1^st 2015. With China’s economy slowing slipping into doldrums Modi must seize this opportunity to walk the talk and infuse dynamism in attracting investments for the much needed infrastructure project and manufacturing hubs. Presently, the FDI inflows from ASEAN into India stand at $32.4 billion while outflows from India to ASEAN countries are estimated to be $36.8 billion.

Moreover ASEAN bloc includes “Tiger Economies” which can be perfect partners for India’s quest for rapid economic development. While Modi couldn’t visit any of the East Asian countries baring Myanmar during his first year of the regime Indian government laid a solid ground to strengthen its relations with South East Asia. These include visits of Pranab Mukherjee the President of India in September to Vietnam where he inked various pacts on defence procurement, oil exploration and air connectivity besides extension of $100 million credit line to Vietnam for defence purchases. Vice-President travelled to Indonesia, Brunei, Cambodia and Laos to boost up ties. Indian engagement with ASEAN is guided by geopolitical and economic interests. ASEAN is also keen in strengthening ties with India for its growing economic and investment potential and also to counterbalance growing economic and political clout of China. Clearly India’s relations with ASEAN suffered gross neglect during the UPA-II with the last bilateral visit to Malaysia dating back to 2010. This current visit would an occasion to rejuvenate friendship with both Malaysia and Singapore and seek expertise that can catapult Make In India (MII), Skill India and Digital India initiatives.

Modi will hold bilateral talks with Malaysian counterpart NajibTun Razak who during his first year of the tenure visited both India and China in 2010 indicating that Malaysian future lies rests in these two countries. Najib unlike his predecessors is believed to be more favorable to India and equally so 2 million strong Indian origin population contribute to 3-4 % of Malaysian economy. Strategically Malaysia occupies a pivotal position in the region and sits at the head of Malacca straits which operates trade worth $5 billion connecting Asian markets to Persian Gulf. It also serves are link between South China Sea, Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. Defence relations between India and Malaysia rose steadily with signing of MoU on Defence cooperation in 1993. From 2008, India and Malaysia have been holding joint military exercises annually referred to as “Harimau Shakti”. Indian Air Force Training Team trained Malaysian pilots on Su-30 SKM from 2008 to 2010. Indian Naval ships makes regular part calls to Kemaman port. Malaysia is third largest trading partner for India among the ASEAN bloc with the trade surplus is significantly imbalanced towards Malaysia. Indian investments in Malaysia are steadily increasing owing to relative ease of setting up business and its stable economy. India and Malaysia have been consistently strengthening cooperation to combat terrorism, unearthing fake currency and drug peddling, arms transfer and exchanging information about the rebel Sri Lankan Tamil militants who found safe havens in Malaysia. Modi will inaugurate Torana Gate, in intricately carved gate inspired from the Buddhist statues of Sanchi marking the launch of Kuala Lumpur’s Little India project and statue of Mahatma Gandhi, interact with business leaders, visit RamaKrishna Mission complex and Batu Caves temple, and address the Indian Diaspora at the Malaysia International Exhibition and Convention Centre. Besides Modi will meet several World leaders including the Premier of China Li Kequiang, Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe and others along the sidelines of the India-ASEAN summit.

Modi would travel to Singapore on 23^rd November where he will deliver Singapore Lecture which will outline the myriad details of the India’s Act East Policy. India’s relations with Singapore dates back to Cholas who are believed to have christened the island. Later under British regime ships regularly transited between India and Singapore which too was a strategic British colony. Singapore has been a steadfast supporter of India. India was the first country to set up diplomatic relations with Singapore immediately after its independence in 1965. Lee Kuan Yew, the father of modern Singapore in his book “Look East to Look West”, pays ode to the great Hindu civilization that pervaded in the Indian Ocean region and laments about the underutilization of India’s potential. Prime Minister Modi last visited Singapore in 2015 to attend the state funeral of Lee Kuan Yew.

Singapore is India’s largest trading partner in ASEAN and the relations between the two countries are augured by economic cooperation. Singapore is the second largest source of FDI accounting to $31.9 billion. Banking, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and information technology have been major portfolios of investment. Conversely Singapore is the top destinations of Indian companies with an estimated 6000 Indian firms registered in Singapore. Indian outflows to Singapore stand at $37.9 billion. Singapore is the first country with which India has entered into a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) in 2005 incentivizing the trade between the countries. People of Indian origin make up to 9.1% of the population of Singapore mostly serving in IT companies, financial services and marine sectors and have contributed in building bridges of friendship with the City Country. The tremendous economic progress made by Singapore in the modern era is an inspiring model worth emulating.

Modi will have bilateral talks with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and it is believed that existing bilateral ties will be elevated to strategic partnership. The five core areas of cooperation would include enhancing trade and investment, rejuvenating air and marine connectivity, smart city development and urban rejuvenation, skills development and capacity building, strengthening cultural and business links. Other important items on his itinerary include interaction with business investors at economic convention, visit to Singapore’s Institute of Technical Education (ITE), pay homage at the INA Memorial Marker at Esplande Park and address Indian community.

India is increasingly looking forward to Singapore’s cooperation in establishing a Skill training center in the North East, in Urban planning and housing missions which include: Smart cities, AMRUT (Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation) and Housing For All. Singapore in turn wants India to increase ease of doing business, aggressively push for reforms and increase air connectivity.

Modi’s visit to the Malaysia and Singapore and participation in the two summits ASEAN and EAS comes at a time when the South China Sea (SCS) has attained a dubious reputation of being “place of fierce rivalry”.  China’s doctrine of the “Nine Dashed Lines” that lays claims on nearly 90% of SCS undermining the claims of its six neighboring countries in the region has taken the rivalry to the hilt. Further its unabated and relentless artificial island building spree in SCS has charged up the passions of the ASEAN countries which are intimidated by Chinese hegemony. Increasing frictions have prompted ASEAN countries to look at India which is considered as a “benign power” in the region, an effective counterbalance with its size and market potential on par with China. India has already pitched for freedom of navigation in the region and resolution of disputes in SCS in accordance to United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS).

India must seize this opportunity to dynamically pursue its development agenda. It has already missed the bus of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). To stay in the race of regional economic integration India must ambitiously work in initiating negotiations on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement between ASEAN, India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. 13/11, Paris attacks spread a wave of panic across the globe spurring nations to collectively initiate an action to extricate the menace of terrorism. With reports of people from Indonesia and Malaysia joining the IS emanating, there is an increasing threat for terror strikes in this region as well. India and the extended East Asia now aims to deepen cooperation in counter-terror operations through intelligence sharing and in evading cyber-attacks through up gradation of cyber security infrastructure. In this current phase of expansive diplomatic engagement Modi can effectively expedite his foreign policy to bring about consistent and positive developments in India through sustained focus on trade and investments. Deepening relations with the economically dynamic countries of East Asia might be a stepping stone for India’s quest for economic progress.

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Modi in UK

Warming up to the economic diplomacy of British Prime Minister David Cameron who prioritized investment in the Asian countries Modi made every effort to burnish India’s image during his three day long visit to UK.  Despite the partisan sanctimonious narrative making headlines in all the leading left-leaning British Newspapers ahead of Modi’s visit to London, he triumphantly projected India as the most favorable investment destination. Drubbed by critics and media for rising chorus of intolerance, failing to reign in on fundamentalists and lately for defeat in the Bihar assembly elections Modi eloquently silenced the disgraceful banter with his adroit diplomatic skills. The poise, spontaneity, diplomatic finesse exuded by Modi in handling the spiteful British media speaks of his diplomatic nuances, an embodiment of a real leader.

Modi left no stone unturned to project “Brand India” image from the time he landed on the foreign soil. With an impressive outreach that complemented the eagerness of his British compatriot to reach the largest consumer market Modi ambitiously grabbed every opportunity to garner financial benefits. On the first day of his visit, Modi was extended a ceremonial reception which was followed by bilateral meetings. Both Prime Ministers then endorsed a Vision Statement that set out fundamental principles for an enduring partnership and bilateral cooperation between India and UK with a core objective of reinvigorating relationships to accelerate growth and transform lives of people. The main focus of Modi’s agenda was clean energy, climate change, security and defence cooperation. A joint statement to this end was issued by both countries addressing issues of shared interests and charted out future course of cooperation. Reiterating that the coming together of World’s oldest and largest democracy should bring prosperity, both countries have agreed to invest in infrastructure, promote manufacturing and extend cooperation in research, technology and innovation.

During President Xi’s to UK earlier this month, both countries sealed financial deals worth £ 30 billion and a section of media was highly very critical of British government’s pandering to China. UK is the largest European investor in India and Economics, is in fact has been the corner stone for Indo- UK cooperation. India is the third largest FDI investor in UK. India and UK struck commercial deals worth £ 9.2 billion in retail, logistics, energy, finance, IT, education and health sectors. UK accounts for 8.59% of total FDI in India during the last 15 years. Indian companies on the other hand employ 110,000 people in UK. Following the hike in the FDI limit to 49% in insurance and pension sector agreements worth £ 238 million were signed in insurance sector. Under the HSBC’s Skills for Life initiative in India, a £ 10 million program was announced to skill 75,000 disadvantaged young people and children over 5 years age. Under the Smart Cities and Urban renewal partnership it is agreed to have three city partnerships with Pune, Amaravati and Indore to meet ambitious urban development goals of India. Under UK water partnership Thames/Ganga partnership was launched to develop healthy river systems.

Giving impetus to the skills initiative in India, 11 UK companies have committed to support skills development in India under the India-UK Skills pledge. Also “Centres for Excellence” in various sectors will be set up starting with the Centre for Automotive and Advanced Engineering in Pune. It was also agreed that year 2016 will be India-UK year of education, research and innovation, fostering collaboration in these sectors. Year 2017 which marks India’s 70^th anniversary of independence will be India-UK year of culture. In another significant development, UK unequivocally supported India’s bid for a permanent membership at the UN Security Council. The visit also witnessed successful conclusion of negotiations on the civil nuclear agreement 2010 providing framework for future cooperation.

On the security front both prime ministers have discussed issues of shared interests in prosperity and security of Asia and Indian Ocean, condemned terrorism in all forms and manifestations, inclusive constitutional settlement in Nepal, reconstruction process in Sri Lanka, sustainable political order in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq. Both nations welcomed historic agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. By and large the engagement was totally high on business and financial commitments.

Though the Indian opposition tried to down play a rare honor bequeathed on Modi, Narendra Modi is the first ever Indian prime minister to address British Parliament which was specially convened by the speaker (as parliament is in recess). Modi chose to address his august audience in English though he is quite comfortable with Hindi. His impressive English oratory though dotted with accented words had clearly made an inexplicable impression on the English audience who in turn raised toast to his spirited message by a standing ovation. During the speech he commended the wisdom of British for installing statue of Mahatma Gandhi next to Winston Churchill on parliament square and generosity of Indian counterparts for sharing the legacy of the great leader. To strike a chord of friendship Modi invoked various issues of common interests in India and UK like the cricket, curry, James Bond, Brooke Bond, Scotland Yard, Bhangra rap, English novel and praised the Tata Motors which now owns Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) for providing jobs to thousands of Brits. He later visited JLR’s Sohilull’s manufacturing plant which manufactures 425,000 cars annually the next day. Modi also garlanded the statue of Mahatma Gandhi which coincided with the fly-past of the Red Arrows of Royal Air Force (RAF) splashing tricolors in skies above. Putting to rest Britain’s past legacy of imperialism, he praised London soil for becoming seed bed for Indian freedom struggle.

Soon after the Royal Address, dispelling clouds of negativity he wooed CEOs of Britain assembled in the Guild Hall by proudly strutting latest reports of reputed Global institutions that acknowledged India’s economic trajectory. India in the past 18 months under the NDA government had climbed up in the rankings of global ease of doing business, transparency international’s corruption perception index and World Economic Forum’s Competitiveness Report. The recent financial downtrend of Chinese markets had evoked few mixed responses in investors who are now looking forward for a relatively stable market. India which is projected to emerge as the largest middle-class consumer market by 2030 can be a lucrative option. Finally he whetted interest in the business executives by pitching the onerous steps taken by his government and exalted India as land of immense opportunities. In total 28 financial deals were struck between India and UK.

Rise of Modi in the political arena has resulted in emanation of two cults- Modi Supporters and Modi Haters and in London Modi faced protestors who chanted slogans of intolerant India and a Nepalese contingent raised slogans against Modi. Prime Minister had to encounter a torrent of cringing questions of the opinionated British media and scorn of demonstrators due to constant ridicule of main stream Indian media. In sharp contrast, overwhelming support of the Indian Diaspora has indeed compelled the conservative party to extend an exceptionally warm reception to Modi. Modi supporters truly cherished the moments of his illustrious visit to London on eve of Diwali by organizing the most memorable Olympic style event at the Wembley Stadium. Attended by more than 60,000 avowed Modi supporters, the preparations for a momentous welcome started six months ahead of his visit. Coordinated and organized by the Europe India Foundation (EIF), the scale of event has truly envied the native Brits. Truly the exceptional euphoria and rapturous welcome accorded by the 1.5 million strong Indian community in London at Wembley Stadium was unprecedented.

Conservative Party made best out of the Wembley event with Prime Minister Cameron serenading Modi through the stadium amidst loud cheers of the spirited Indian community. Wembley event was an occasion of great celebration for the Indian Diaspora who turned it into a historic event by mirroring various aspects of Indian culture, art, music and dance. It is ironic that while the Indian community is celebrating the spirit of diverse India, back in India the vitriolic opposition lost no time in launching scathing attacks and passing disparaging comments. But for the steady support of the Indian-desi’s abroad the heaping criticism of British Media couldn’t have mellowed down. In his much awaited address to the Indian community, Modi reiterated the uniqueness of India, reached out to Indian community and encouraged them to invest in India, announced a new flight from Ahmedabad to London. In a move to tap the London markets, Modi launched innovative Masala bonds to facilitate off shore rupee trading by Indian firms and made London the center for such financial transactions. The most ravishing spectacle unfurled at Wembley with biggest garden-style fireworks  displayed at the end of the event.

During his three day long stay, Modi lunched with Queen Elizabeth II, unveiled statue of 12^th century Kannada philosopher Basaveshwara and visited the place where Dr. B. R. Ambedkar lived during his stay in London. But the fag end of the Modi’s visit was overshadowed by the gruesome Paris attacks. From London Modi travelled to Antalya in Turkey to attend the 10^th G-20 summit. The terror attacks of Paris topped the agenda of the summit wherein world leaders pledged to initiate a global action against terrorism. Modi proposed a 10-point program to tackle terrorism. India being worst victim of cross-border terror for the past three decades, Modi has been pitching for a comprehensive legislation on counter terrorism.

Modi during his state visit to UK made ever attempt to take the relationship forward and eloquently projected India as an emerging market. Of late UK had made strategic shifts in its foreign policy and is more focused on economic diplomacy. Complementarily, Modi too invested lot of time and energy in striking commercial deals and in wooing investors. It is interesting that colonial master of yesteryears are now slowly acknowledging the ascendancy of India. In reality the sudden attitudinal change of the British political arena towards India is a rigorous attempt to woo the 1.7 million strong Indian diaspora. By and large one of the pillars of Modi’s foreign policy stratagem has been resourceful leveraging of India’s soft power which emanates from the belief that local problems have global solutions. @ Copyrights reserved.

Paris Attacks: Scourge on Humanity

The heinous suicidal bomb and gun attacks in Paris that claimed over 129 people hailing from 12 different nations has shook the World. The tailored dastardly attacks spanning over 6 hours in the wee hours of the weekend has exposed the vulnerability of the nation to the grouse of terrorism. Terrorism seems to have transcended boundaries and clearly defying the invincibility of western nations, the extremism brewing for the past several decades had hit Paris. World leaders expressed their solidarity to France and severely condemned the punitive action of the extremists. Following the aftermath of the incidents, seasoned investigative agencies began drawing parallels to the 26/11 Mumbai attacks that lasted for over four days killing 166 people. While the scale of violence is deplorable in both cases the savagery and continued persistence of the terrorists to spread terror in Mumbai was stemmed by timely intervention of Police and Armed forces in Mumbai. The 13/11 Paris attacks carried out a group of eight man with alleged affiliations to IS wearing explosive vests and stuck the targets at six different locations.

As the condolence messages began imploring France, strategic analysts in Paris have plunged into soul-searching with people attributing the gory incident to a spectrum of events.  Primarily the attacks were attributed to the inherent fault lines in its foreign policy and to the influx of the migrants though the porous borders. But apparently the real crux lies in a series of developments that indeed paved the way for the gruesome attacks. The US after its avowed destruction of the Al-Qaeda that unleashed a reign of terror on its land has slackened its surveillance on the spurt of the terrorist outfits blooming the Middle East. Meanwhile European countries consciously chose to ignore the ceaseless trails of rampage escalating in Syria following the onset of the Civil war 2011. The unrest coupled by the apathy of coterie of nations to bring about grinding halt to the fomenting Syrian crisis witnessed slow and steady rise of the Islamic outfits. Further the inept Iraqi administration installed by the US marking the actualization of democratic process in the war-hit land inadvertently began to increase animosities between the Sunni’s and Shias. In adept leadership in the region, coupled by the escalation of frustrations among the masses and burgeoning acrimonies instigates by the traditional rivals in the region led to the emergence of the severely radicalized Islamist outfit IS (Islamic State) with a pernicious objective of establishing an Islamic caliphate.  It growth in part was augured by availability of bountiful finances, its stratagem of publicizing and idolizing the Jihadi culture on social media was an instant hit. Thus it effortlessly attracted thousands of radicalized Muslim youth and increased in strength significantly. IS sent panic waves across the World by tactfully gaining control over important Iraqi cities in early 2014. With the superfluous oil refineries under its control, IS slowly unleashed a wave of terror across the borders of Iraq, extending its sphere of influence to the hinterlands of Syria.

Meanwhile, scores of youth awestruck by the resurgence of an extremist force passionately began to associate with it. Notwithstanding the continuous surveillance imposed by countries, young people hailing from Middle Asia, Europe and other parts of the World started traveling to Syria. Most of youth who returned homes were intractably drawn into the brutalized jihadi culture expounded by IS. This hypothesis was affirmed by interrogations carried out by investigative agencies that foiled previous unsuccessful attempts of derailing peace in Europe by radicalized youth who returned home. With IS showing no signs of withering, its pugnacious ideology widely popular among youth began to torment the peace and harmony of the World.

While the identity of eight attackers who carried out Paris attacks is not yet established preliminary clues have indicated that perpetrators of crime gained entry into the country through the porous borders that permitted refugees into Europe. While a plausible solution of combating terror unequivocally lies in annihilating the IS, the logical strategy pursued by the coalition forces failed miserably in annihilating the IS. It is more than a year since coalition forces were providing arms and sophisticated weapons to the forces fighting the IS but till now no major breakthrough has been attained. Russia too joined the mission of destroying the IS in late September but its objectives are not in sync with that of the Coalition Forces. It has been a month that Russia initiated air-strikes against IS and claims to have made significant advances. Alarmed by deteriorating situation in Syria diplomats of various countries that have stakes in Syria met in Vienna on October 30^th to review the situation. The participants included- US, UK, Russia, Iran, Turkey, China, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, UAE, Lebanon, France, Jordan, Italy, Germany and European Union. Parties during the first round signed a joint Final declaration on the results of the Syrian talks in Vienna as agreed by the participants and asked the UN to convene the Syrian government and opposition to start a credible political process to be administered under its supervision. But soon they reached an impasse with parties differing over the future of Bashar Assad’s rule in Syria. Against the backdrop of the Paris attacks, next round of meeting commenced in November 14^th at Vienna.

As a matter of fact, end of Syrian war seems to provide a comprehensive solution to end the massive influx of the refugees into Europe and destroying the IS will be the first step in that direction. But unfortunately, the brutal return of the terrorism would continue to threaten the World as long as the seeds of terror and the various agencies perpetrating the nefarious activities are not ravaged. This can be corroborated by the fact that US rejoiced for avenging the Al-Qaeda but the extremist forces began to strike back more fiercely with rejuvenated savagery and barbarism in the form of IS, an off-shoot of Al-Qaeda. Sadly Europe is now quite vulnerable than ever as initial reports increasingly suggest that the hard-core, hardened extremist leaders have gained entry into the continent along the unsuspicious refugees. Europe by opening its doors to the refugees exacerbated the anxiety of “enemy within.” France had a veritable partnership with the coalition forces fighting in the Iraq for a long time. The brutal massacres hatched by these terror mongers are highly condemnable and scourge on humanity.  With the western forces aggravating its fight against the terrorist forces it is highly likely that incidents of horror might recur and “enemies within” might explore every opportunity to target the highly congregated places disrupting the multicultural fabric of European nations.

Paris attacks are one of the most gruesome terror attacks in Europe after the Madrid train blast of 2004 compelling nations to take a stern action against terrorism. These attacks glaringly exposed lacunae of the intelligence agencies that failed to bust the attacks. The complex plots which were executed with ruthless efficiency clearly indicates that the perpetrators of this operation are meticulously trained and can hoodwink the radar of security agencies. Besides these attacks has opened a Pandora box of exigencies of terrorism.  The current episode of terror is fall out of bipartisan foreign policy adopted by western countries who chose to ignore the dangers of the extremism for its dubious strategic and financial gains.

During the past four decades India witnessed 59 attacks wherein 1889 people lost their lives. India has been worst victim of cross-border terrorism perpetrated by its western neighbor which aims to intimidate the government and people for its political, religious and ideological goals. Of all 26/11 Mumbai attacks stand out for the intensity of brutality suffered and number of lives lost. Indian courts acted swiftly, identified the perpetrators and master-minds behind the horrendous acts of violence and prepared dossiers with supporting evidence and handed over scrupulous details to Pakistan anticipating some action. Comprehensive investigations and the information provided by the lone surviving perpetrator conclusively indicated that attacks were the handiwork of Laskhar-e- Toiba (LeT), a terror outfit financed by Pakistan and ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence). The victims included 26 foreign nationals from 10 different countries following the international condemnation under duress Pakistan acknowledged the lone survivor as its citizen and arrested the master-minds of attacks including Zakir-ur-Rehman Lakhvi and commenced actual trials in 2012. The anti-terror court of Pakistan in April 2015 granted bail to him in contravention to the UN resolution 1267 India presented its appeal in the UN but China vetoed the move. Disconcertingly while India having suffered brutal carnage of the radical groups is expected to exercise restraint and not carry military attacks, elite nations continue to reward perpetrators with financial and economic bounties to nurture their long term strategic interests. India is worst sufferer of cross- border terrorism which is a state-policy of Pakistan. Another facet of modern age terrorism is its perpetuation by radicalized youth who are coerced into the militant form of Islam by religious fundamentals. Obsessed with religious fanaticism huge amounts of petrodollars are pumped into spreading extremist culture.

Sadly, the dastardly terrorist attacks in various countries continue to proliferate unabatedly in absence of international convention. It is rather frustrating that in its 70 years of its existence UN failed to even define terrorism and bring out strict legislation to nip the barbaric activities of extremists. Modi bolstered the idea of evolving a concrete legislative framework on terrorism and reiterated an urgent need for a comprehensive mechanism to combat terror in his first address at the UN General Assembly last year.  Accordingly, he brought about the issue of counter-terrorism and a combative legislative approach during his bilateral visits to various countries and drew support of like-minded nations.

Can World nations ever dream of combating terrorism while the elite league continues to patronize the perpetrators to foster their selfish gains? Further the knee-jerk reaction of France of mounting attacks on Syrian city Raqqa for the unforgiving barbarian attacks will be of little significance until nations take a deep resolve to unitedly fight against the perpetrators. Recent months have witnessed sudden surge in terrorist attacks across the World. On Nov 12^th 41 people were killed in twin bomb attacks by IS in Beirut. On 10^th October, 107 people killed in the deadliest bomb attack in Ankara. A Russian plane carrying over 242 people was blown up midair over Sinai Peninsula earlier this week. But unfortunately these incidents failed to evoke solidarity as the Paris attacks. Finally while killings are traumatic anywhere, why is the death of Europeans or the West is raised to “highest common abstractions” and why their loss alone is iconized as blight on humanity. Affirmatively G-20 leaders in the ongoing summit vowed to take a global action on terrorism and the UN secretary general assured that he will soon submit a comprehensive plan to deal violent extremism and terrorism.

 

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Predicaments of Modi’s visit to UK and Turkey

Modi’s upcoming visit to UK and later to Turkey for the G-20 summit is going to be a mixed bag. Unlike the state visit to other countries where Modi’s political credence was largely unchallenged, BJP’s recent debacle in Bihar assembly might become a moot point. Analysts too opined that Modi’s electoral loss might overshadow his visit. Squashing these concerns, just before his visit, Modi bolstered confidence of Indian industries by announcing a slew of reforms. Displaying unwavering commitment towards the promised developmental agenda, Modi gave a new momentum to Indian economic system by opening up 15 sectors including defence, agriculture, pharma, real estate and broadcasting for foreign direct investment (FDI) and raised the FIPB’s limit from 3000 Crores to 5000 Crores.

Drubbing of Modi by media received a shot in arm with party’s poor show in Bihar. BBC which has been gunning for Modi might leave no stone unturned to vilify him. The defeat of BJP in the assembly elections in fact characteristically sparked the egregious slander carried out by the effervescent BBC. The opinionated open-ed’s published in the left-leaning newspaper The Guardian and The Independent has already ratcheted up passions of the leftist-groups who has been protesting against Modi’s visit to UK. In the meanwhile, it is learnt that Pakistani Embassy is slowly instigating Khalistani rebels and other disgruntled immigrants to raise protests and cynically obstruct Modi’s cavalcade in London.

Indeed UK boycotted Modi since 2002 and the ban was lifted when Modi’s candidature for the post of Prime Minister has become certain in 2013. Despite dormant ignominy UK will be hosting Modi to garner support of the influential Indian diaspora. Interestingly while UK had no qualms in rolling out reddest of red carpets earlier in October to President Xi whose actions are under scanner for his alleged human Rights violations in Xinjiang province and Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) vested groups in UK are raising cynical protests commemorating Modi’s visit (despite Modi being exonerated of various charges). Modi unlike President Xi is an elected leader of the World’s largest democracy and won wholesomely with absolute majority. The Labour Party which had been highly critical of Modi and vehemently opposed Modi’s visa in a major rejig is espousing great interest in welcoming Modi. While the media remarks that Modi’s UK visit is ill-timed, the infectious enthusiasm, elaborate preparations and adulation of the Indian Diaspora for the most popular Indian prime minister may prove it otherwise.

Association of India and UK dates back to several centuries and the current visit to UK will be the first by an Indian prime minister in a decade. The trip comes at a time when disillusioned UK is looking forward for greater economic engagement with Asia to boost up its financial prospects. UK is the third largest foreign investor in India worth $22 billion and India’s investment in UK is $500-600 million is third largest. The volume of trade between both countries is around $ 11 billion. Indian students form the second largest group in Britain. The three day long tour will almost have the same itinerary as the President Xi except that the 70,000 excited Indian community will be cheering the Prime Minister in a first ever massive welcome accorded to any leader so far.

Calibrating Modi’s visit to UK as “extraordinary”, British Prime Minister David Cameron expressed that both countries would attempt to build modern partnership to combat the challenges of terrorism, climate change and poverty. In fact UK is now increasingly concentrating on revving up its economic fortunes by effectively engaging with the dynamic Asian economies. Earlier, Xi has committed to deliver $ 45 billion to UK which includes a promise of setting up world’s costliest nuclear power plant in UK. While India can’t match China in terms of financial bounty Modi might ameliorate lucrative investment opportunities for potential British investors. Major announcements that can be expected might include-a defence contract between the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and the BAE Systems regarding the up gradation and development of a combat Hawk Mk 132. Hawk Mk 132 is an advanced trainer jet with capabilities to be used as ground attack air craft and is equipped with Global Positioning System, head-Up display, Hands on throttle and stick controls. As per the recommendations of the Indian-UK Financial Partnership (IUKFP) agreement might be reached to deepen financial links between India and UK whereby Indian companies can issue bonds easily to overseas.  A breakthrough can be anticipated wherein UK may provide both civil and military nuclear technology to India and further India’s ambitions of joining major nuclear export control regimes. According to some reports deals in trade and investment worth $15 billion are likely to be materialized during Modi’s visit.

Sadly the larger disconnect between India and UK may hamper the relations from reaping greater dividends. UK’s foreign policy stratagem thus far has been anachronistic to India’s interests. The Labour Party of UK is an unequivocal supporter of territorial claims of Pakistan and China and plebiscite in Kashmir. The irresponsible statements of David Miliband, former foreign secretary has in part damaged the strategic partnership of 2005 forged between ManMohan Singh and Tony Blair during the later visit to India. The partnership has since then remained as a namesake affair. In contrast, David Cameron stuck chord with India on his first visit in 2010 by warning Pakistan against exporting terror and by seeking close security partnership with India. He indeed is quick to realise India’s potential as an economic power in South Asia. Conservatives have supported India’s membership for UNSC, extended a hand of friendship and are keen on engaging in trade with India. By far “UK’s foreign policy is mercantilist”. In reality, both political parties of UK are vying with each other in warming up to Modi to woo 1.7 million strong Indian diaspora.

During his three day long stay in UK, Modi will have bilateral talks with David Cameron at 10, Downing Street and have a lunch with Queen Elizabeth. The focus areas of bilateral talks will be defence manufacturing and clean energy besides issues of bilateral cooperation in fields of education, science and technology will also be discussed. Modi will garlanding the statue of Mahatma Gandhi at the Parliament Square coinciding with the fly-past by the Red Arrows Royal Air Force (RAF) aerobatic team flying the tri-colored Indian flag.  He will be the first ever Indian Prime Minister to address both Houses of Parliament, a rare honor bestowed on select leaders. Modi will address City of London at an event in The Old Library, Guild Hall and will proceed to Cameron’s country residence at Chequers in Buckinghamshire for an over-night stay. Modi will also visit Jaguar Land Rover Factory owned completely by Tata Motors to send out a message that India is a “job maker” and not “job taker”. In a bid to spring interest in British investors, Modi laid a strong ground for India’s economic aspirations by introducing major economic reforms. With India bettering its performance in ease of doing business, investors might be enthused to pledge investments in its markets. Modi will potentially highlight global projections of India’s economic stature as fastest emerging economy at the CEO forum to drive home lucrative FDI.

On November 13^th Modi will attend the most ravishing, “Olympic Style” event organized by the Europe India Forum (EIF) at Wembley Stadium. The event themed as “Two Great Nations, One Glorious Future” will also mark the greatest fireworks display as a part of Diwali celebrations in UK. London city played a vital role in Indian independence struggle considering the fact that many Indian freedom fighters lived, worked and studied there. Modi will unveil the statue of 12^th century Kannada philosopher and poet Bashaveshwara and later visit the place where Dr. B. R. Ambedkar lived during his stay in London. This place was recently acquired by state government of Maharashtra which plans to convert into a Museum.

On November 14^th Modi will travel to Antalya, Turkey to attend the 10^th G-20 summit to review the progress on the decisions made after the Brisbane summit. Clearly the discussions in the summit will be centered on adoption of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and plans will charted out to arrive at crucial agreements for the upcoming COP-21 climate meet at Paris. India’s focus in the summit will be on tackling the menace of black money, tax erosion. Modi will  hold several bilateral meeting with heads of various countries and other world leaders.

Currently, British perceptions towards Modi are far-fetched and mired by unfounded apprehensions. The close links between the leftist cabal with the labour party and its leadership has tried its best to tarnish the image of Modi. Partisan narratives rule the roost in UK and cancellation of discussion on Indian economy by Subramaniam Swamy, Rajiv Malhotra and Gautam Sen by Oxford University clearly echoes dogmatic views. While it has no misgiving is hosting the incendiary religious talks of jihadists. The distasteful projection of “Modi not welcome” displayed on the British Parliament for 8 long minutes created by Awaaz network is reflection of bigoted perceptions prevalent in UK. The visit will be closely watched for its enchanting diplomatic dimensions, spectacular celebrations organized by Indian diaspora amidst voices of admonitions.

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Orchestrated Melancholy

India with its humongous diversity is a veritable example of unity in diversity. Resilient Indian society for centuries has been accommodating diverse ideologies, culture systems, and religious values emanating the message of peaceful-coexistence. During the course of its enduring history India suffered numerous onslaughts but still the very essence of Indianness (Bharateeyata) was never lost. Religious harmony has been an integral part of Indian community.

But the recent upsurge of articulated intellectual tirade and shrill protests of the select Indian avant-garde class against the current government is highly preposterous. The fundamental allegation of bridled freedom of expression holds no ground as their hue and cry is heard by far and distant international media leave alone the paid Indian media houses. Had it not been for the unrestrained freedom of expression academicians who hold high moral ground despite calling democratically elected leader a fascist received extensive coverage? If not for the liberal arena of the ruling disposition, can the intellectual brigade have the temerity to pronounce judgments on the lynching of Mohammed Akhlaq with no court or enquiry commission holding particular group responsible for the unfortunate incident. They acted as judge, jury and prosecutor and censured the government. Till now circumstances that led to the event weren’t fully deciphered but the politically motivated bunch brazenly held the regime responsible and is demands Prime Minister to address it. Sadly in India, horrific crimes evoke differential condemnation and responses on religious lines. While the perpetrators of gruesome Dadri lynching incident deserves harshest punishment why does a crime of similar magnitude committed against a majority community escapes media attention. Shamelessly differential standards are assigned to individuals based on communal identities.

India’s existing religious bias has been perpetually augured by political leaders wherein minority appeasement and majority bashing has become a norm. This attribute further gathers much strength from the skewed definition of the secularism India follows.

The timing of the orchestrated intellectual revolt spear-headed by a renowned author with close connections to India’s elite dynasty in itself speaks volumes of the dubious political motivations. The illustrious list of her progressive literary contributions includes an ode to her uncle under the title “Jawaharlal Nehru: Civilizing a Savage World”, where she blatantly equates India to savage world. The book provides glimpses of her utter contempt towards culture and beliefs of large section of Indians. It is startling as how this brigade in more than six decades of India’s independence never bothered to raise their voices against the heinous atrocities suddenly became conscious of intolerance.

Protests started gaining momentum on the pretext that ‘rationalists’ and ‘secular-minded people’ are attacked. The murder of rationalist Narendra Dabholkar was ascribed to Hindu extremist group while investigation revealed that the act was perpetrated by Christian fundamentalists. Regarding the killing of Kalburgi who hails from Karnataka, despite the massive uproar by the writers across the board the inept congress state government hasn’t ordered for investigation yet. Instead of putting pressure on the state government, writers conveniently chose to lash out on central government. As regarding the unwarranted fears of rising communal intolerance/ violence so far no official records ever raised alarm about sharp increase in the crime rate across India.

Another interesting feature of this orchestrated protests is that they peak during election season and automatically die down. The momentum is not persistent, it lacks direction, purpose and it fails to offer any plausible solutions. Why did a series of Church attacks suddenly surface out of the blue before Delhi Assembly elections? These disruptive events gained traction during the fag end of election campaigning and subtly polarized the electorate. Police investigation again revealed that they were random cases of stray incidents. The selective outrage and vilification of the ruling regime in the first quarter of their tenure subconsciously rakes doubts about the intentions of elite intellectuals. While it is imprudent to draw conclusions is this brouhaha of intolerance culminating in social disharmony a larger game plan of restive opposition voted out of power? 

Intolerance has been part and parcel of system it hasn’t suddenly crept in during the past 14 months. Recent eruption of intellectual fury has been the outcome of pent-up obsessive hatred towards certain ideology. Independent India so far has been guided by a certain kind of ideology that pervaded in the higher echelons of power. It flourished during the past six odd decades and was unchallenged and highly patronized. The intellectual community (artists, film makers, writers etc) which controlled the higher institutes of learning replete of this ideology permeated the same. As rightly reflected by Bibek Debroy in his interview- a specific ideology controlled the whole system and any deviant was scrupulously weeded out clearly indicating that the intellectual circuit itself is intolerant. They are impervious to alternative ideologies. In a country as diverse as India, different ideologies are bound to exist and hence no ideology can for itself claim to be self-righteous. Indian intellectuals and especially the pampered Lutyens circle are jittery and are dismayed by the prospect of losing intellectual hegemony.

These conclusions aptly fit propositions advocated by historian Ramachandra Guha in an article in Caravan, 2015 where he contemplates that while right-wing managed to clinch power “it can command support of few well known or widely published intellectuals”. Rightly so renowned Indian intellectuals following the announcement of Modi’s nomination as a prime ministerial candidate strongly denounced him and ran signature trails opposing the same. Undeniably the award-returning protest is an extension of that remnant grouse and anger.

Lastly, the scientist who was honored with “Padma Bhushan” for his pioneering scientific feats decided to return his award alleging that “government is moving away from path of democracy towards Hindu religious dictatorship”. Other aspects which prompted his decision include strong dislike towards BJP, Modi’s Hindu religious beliefs, penalizing green activists, Teesta Setalvad and Hardik Patel. He was highly critical of alternative medicine, yoga and ran a campaign against it.  At a time when defamation campaigns are run in India undermining traditional knowledge, a Nobel Prize for Physiology in 2015 for a Chinese researcher working on traditional Chinese medicine should be a wake-up call. Youyou Tu was awarded the prestigious award for isolating anti-malarial ingredient artemisinin from sweet wormwood. It is not an attempt to belittle the spectacular contributions of the scientist. But a targeted disapproval of a democratically elected government for mere ideological reasons might reduce top-notch ‘intellectuals’ to mere ‘ideologues’ who can barely tolerate a change.

 

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Economies of India and China: A Comparative Analysis

India and China besides being the oldest civilizations of the World are also geographically large countries in Asia. Both of them together are currently home to around 40% of global population and hence rapid economic strides of these countries will have major impact on global economy. Incidentally both countries embarked on their economic odyssey after 1950. The consistent higher economic growth posted by China over the past three decades has marveled the World. India had a slow start and the real economic progression began when economic liberalisation was officially flagged off in 1991. Prior to 1991 India had dubious distinction of scripting stagnating growth rates of 3.5% or the Hindu growth rate as it was popularly referred. Post economic reforms India registered a steady growth and its growth rate in the past decade was 7-7.4% against 9.9 of China. Angus Deaton, an Economist of Princeton University won the Royal Swedish Academy of Science Award in Economics or popularly known Nobel Laureate of Economics in 2015 known for his work on measuring poverty and his studies on how growth can reduce poverty. (1). He was upbeat about the gradually diminishing poverty rates in the World and owed the success to the impressive economic growth achieved by these countries. China’s unparalleled growth magic has indeed compelled numerous analysts in declaring that twenty first century belonged to China.

While economic progress of both the countries was driven by economic liberalisation there have been inherent differences between the economies. India has mixed economy with substantial private sector participation characteristic of a capitalist economy. China has a command economy with state-controlled enterprises largely looming with meagre presence of the private sector. While the backbone of the Chinese economy is its robust manufacturing sector India has moved away from agriculture to services with a little increase in manufacturing sector. The share of manufacturing sector in India is 17% way below Thailand 33%, China 31%, South Korea 31% and Indonesia 22%.  Even countries like Philippines, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Turkey, Mexico and Bangladesh have higher share of manufacturing (in terms of GDP) (2). Agriculture sector in India still continues to provide 50% of employment though its contribution in GDP has fell 13.7% (3). Chinese economy propelled by its exports and manufacturing has become a remunerative enterprise with the availability of cheap labor and subsidized infrastructure.  Currently China is the largest exporter and its manufacturing sector is 8 times that of India. On the obverse, India has poor exporting potential and its manufacturing sector has been throttled by poor infrastructure, cumbersome taxation, high interest rates etc. Manufacturing is the only sector that has potential to create more job opportunities and has multiplier effect on interalia segments of economy. Realizing the urgent need to revamp and boost the Indian manufacturing sector Modi government has unveiled the Make In India (MII) program in October 2014. It has been a year to its launch and its progress is encouraging so far. India’s economy is boosted mostly by the IT-enabled services sector.

According to World Bank estimate economic liberalisation in China has uplifted nearly 500 million from poverty since 1978 while the figure for India stands at 175 million from 1993 through 2011. Economic reforms were introduced in China in 1978, 13 years ahead of India’s globalization process and its growth spectacle is consistent. By 2001 it has comprehensively overtaken developed countries like UK, France, Italy, Japan and Germany to become the second-largest economy with $10 Trillion GDP. In the process it has accumulated world’s largest foreign exchange reserves of $3.7 trillion 10 times more than India. India with its $2 trillion GDP is eventually dwarfed by its neighbor. All these positive attributes held Chinese economy in a good stead whereas red tape and corruption punctured India’s financial reputation presenting a dim picture of India in the international arena. Even the decade long period of steady growth stumbled in 2013 and just managed to recover in 2014.

Coincidentally China too started exuding symptoms of slowing down with labor becoming expensive, economy relying on low-priced exports and with government’s unabated obsession for infrastructure building spree. The grim picture is exacerbated by humongous levels of corruption and eruption of housing bubble. For the first time in over three decades China’s growth rate slipped to 7.4 in 2014 and the prediction for 2015 were bleak as its markets were hit by stock market volatility. International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported a growth rate of 6.9% in the third quarter for China (4).

The first symptoms of an impending financial crisis began to emerge when the stock market began to plunge for three-weeks in succession in July 2015. On August 24^th, dubbed as ‘Black Monday”, the stock markets of second largest economy of the World fell sharply with Shanghai share index losing 8.49% of its value. This nose-diving resulted in wiping of $5 trillion from the global stock markets since Yuan was devalued in July. Despite the government’s efforts of lowering interest rates from November 2014 for five times, the crisis couldn’t be averted. Chinese authorities have tried to revive the markets by pumping $200 billion even that failed to ease the crisis. The collapse of the stock market created tremors not only in Asia but major global stock markets too tumbled. Soon commodity prices of crude oil and copper witnessed sharp fall, major Asian currencies weakened. Market analysts predicted a stock market crash or burst of the bubble as stock prices increased by 150% between June 2014 and June 2015. Shanghai composite index points was just 2050 in June 2014 and sky rocketed to 5220 in June 2015. One of the principal reasons that led to the crash was government policy of encouraging general public participation in stock market. Besides, slow economic growth, fall in exports, reduced investment spending and profit margins for companies stoked the crisis. India too felt tremors of the crash. But the effects have been moderate ranging from weakening of its currency to fall in stock prices. Among the emerging market economies (EME) India is stable wherein its slow pace of reforms have rescued it from several global crisis (5). Interestingly, China’s fall has boosted global investors’ confidence in Indian markets as it remained relatively stable.

In sharp contrast to China’s economic debacle, financial situation in India is receiving a great boost under the regime of Prime Minister Modi. People had great expectations from Modi and expected a quick financial turnaround. But India’s problems are deep-rooted and only systemic changes can make a larger difference. To this end, Modi government has taken many initiatives. These included- revamping of public banking system wherein a Bank Board Bureau was appointed which allows running of a bank like board managed company. Second, a National Infrastructure Investment Fund for development of infrastructure was setup and government will allot $3 billion annually. Additional investments can be raised from private sectors or from investors globally to expedite infrastructure development. Third, government has taken up transparent auctioning of the natural resources whereby cash started flowing into government exchequer. These finances can help in rejuvenating other sectors (6). Another important initiative in this direction would be implementation of the GST. Sadly, the fortunes of the GST are at the mercy of the opposition coalition. While India’s macroeconomic indicators present a rosy picture of the economy, India fails to draw global investment due to its poor micro economic indicators like- ease of doing business, execution of contracts etc. To break the grid-lock of the bureaucratic hurdles, government has launched the G2B eBiZ portal for single-clearance of the projects in April 2015. India’s whose ranking is 142 out of 184 countries in ease of doing business can climb up to below 50.

India is better placed than China in several aspects heralding its potential to supersede China over a period of time. India has all favorable elements to be a lucrative market. The aging working population in China will pale out against large demographic advantage of India. Cheap labor thus far offered an initial competitive edge for China. Soon this dominance will erode due to the one child policy adopted by China in 1978. Though India hasn’t surpassed China its growth rate is on par with China as of now. While China’s growth is believed to stagnate over a period of time due to falling exports, low domestic consumption India is expected to perform well as markets can be driven by domestic consumption. China’s debt rates has reached an alarmingly high rate of 128% according to some estimate whereas India has still enough room to accelerate and develop. Market analysts are now speculating an impending property bubble crash in China (7). China has the distinction of having home ownership rate of 89% and there has been steep decline in the prices of the property which is a worrying development. Of late the Dragon is battling with high deflation rates on the other hand, India is now taming inflation and has announced rate cuts to stimulate economy.

Latest reports now indicate that India has emerged as the most favored foreign investment destination (FDI) in 2015 trumping China and the US (8). FDI inflows into India between January to June 2015 is $ 31 billion against $ 28 billion of China and $27 billion of the US. Even India has jumped 16 places to 55 the position among 140 countries in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index. This statistical measure takes into consideration various parameters like institutions, macroeconomic environment, education, market size and infrastructure. Better performance reflects India’s marked improvement in the financial architecture. India is now fastest growing country among BRICS for the first time since 1999. World Bank estimates that India will continue to grow at 7.5 and if it can sustain its growth momentum Indian economy was take-off. While China is ahead in terms of various metrics like- life expectancy, literacy rate, child mortality rate India is relatively better placed for its democratic political system.

Historically too India and China had several similarities with a meticulous distinction of steering global economy from 500 AD onwards. Both of them experienced the excesses of imperialist powers and stirred up economic resurgence after becoming independent. Around 1980 when China initiated reforms its per capita income level was on par with India. Now China’s per capita income is three and half times that of India and its GDP is five times. India has a long way to go and propitious reports of economic parameters clearly vouch for acche din.

Aside economic progress India is considered more potent and vibrant since people in India are free to express themselves unlike their Chinese counterparts’ ruing under authoritarian rule.

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