India wary of Constitutional Amendment of Maldives

(Land legislation approving foreign ownership of land)

Indian Ocean Archipelago, Maldives passed crucial land legislation in the Parliament Majlis last week that approved foreign ownership of the land. According to the new legislation, any foreign individuals or companies that invest more than USD 1 billion and can reclaim over 70% of the land (for project) can buy land in the country. The new legislation was passed on July 22^nd hurriedly with a thumping majority as 70 representatives voting in favour and 14 against it. While the government says the new amendment was necessary to reduce reliance on tourism and to transform the economy through large scale foreign investments the clauses in the tweaked legislation clearly facilitates Chinese interests. Previously the country’s legislation permitted land leases for a period of 99 years. This worrying new development sent jitters across Asia and sent alarm bells ringing in India.

Maldives has been India’s traditional ally and a SAARC member but reiterated by the opposition this move would inevitably facilitate robust Chinese presence in the island. Located strategically in the Indian Ocean, China is has been eagerly waiting to seize an opportunity to establish its foothold in the island. For the past 10 years China has pumped   sizeable investments in various infrastructure projects in Maldives including the Male- Hulhule, bridge project that connects the capital Male to the airport. Further it has given major push to its tourism industry whereby 30-40% of the tourists to the island are Chinese. In sharp contrast to Chinese initiatives, India during the last decade failed to revitalise its relations with Maldives.

Maldives bilateral relations with China reached a zenith when leaders of both countries reciprocated each other’s visit in a span of one month. President Xi Xinping’s visited Maldives last September shortly after his trip to India, during which the island country expressed its willingness to contribute constructively towards development of Maritime Silk Route also referred as Belt Road Initiative (BRI). It has even recently signed up for the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Though India has a strong conventional cultural, diplomatic connect with Maldives it failed to capitalise on its good will due to its political stand. India is a major trading partner of Maldives and besides providing several loans and grants it dispenses as much as 5% of its total international developmental budget to the island. Relations between India and Maldives have their own lows and highs. India helped Maldives to set up its coastal surveillance capabilities and was the first responder when Maldives only sewage plant caught fire whereby nearly 100,000 lost access to safe drinking water. But the relations reached its lowest ebb when an Indian firm, GMR’s contract for construction of airport in Male has been cancelled. This project is now awarded to a Chinese company.

In February 2015 when deep political crisis loomed over the island following the unceremonious arrest of democratically elected leader, President Nasheed, India expressed its concerns. Nasheed, the leader of opposition from the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) was incarcerated on charges of terrorism, following a hearing headed by a panel of judges loyal to the incumbent President Abdulla Yameen of Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Nasheed in fact sought asylum in the Indian Embassy at Male for two weeks. India’s statement drew a sharp rebuke from Yameen’s government and was viewed with scepticism whereas China adhered to its policy of non-interference in domestic affairs. Owing to this reigning political turmoil, Modi cancelled his scheduled visit to the island in March. Speculations were rife that the cancellation was connected to the arrest of Nasheed who is perceived to be pro-Indian. The cancellation of the visit at the eleventh hour sent adverse signals to the Maldivian government.

Aside all these factors, China will be greatly benefitted by the new land amendment as it has demonstrated great expertise in land reclamation. With mastery over reclamation, China is now converting small islets, reefs, shoals in the disputed South China Sea into vast sandy stretches of island. China in fact effectively used land reclamation capabilities in Sri Lanka as well and clinched several projects there too. Unlike India China with its deep pockets can effortlessly invest $1 billion worth projects in Maldives. While the Indian political system marred with squabbles acts as a greatest deterrent to make investments, China’s hassle free decision making can generate investments quickly. Moreover China is known for its time bound delivery and completion of projects on foreign lands, India is stymied by disrepute of delayed completion. Needless to say, the new legislation is essentially designed to foster Chinese interests.

In a bid to allay fears of opposition in Maldives following the passage of landmark legislation that allows foreign companies to own land, Chinese foreign ministry asserted that it will not build military bases. But the undeterred aggressive land reclamation in South China Sea stands testimony to China expansionist attitude. India which believes that Maldives is in its sphere of influence is evidently perturbed.

On July 26^th Maldives celebrated its 50^th year of independence and Prime Minister Modi reached out to the island calling it as a “valued partner in the Indian ocean neighbourhood”. India should now aggressively steer ahead in rebuilding relations with Maldives and other neighbouring nations in its immediate neighbourhood. Perhaps the ideal way to initiate the process would be through a bilateral visit by the Prime Minister Modi. India should rejuvenate its cultural, diplomatic, academic and people to people interactions with the island. Maldives on the other hand is looking forward to India’s help and support in addressing the climate change issues. India must encourage its industrialists and business houses to invest in the Maldives to rejuvenate economic ties. It is time India should now consider seeking help from the EU and Japan, the pioneers of the land reclamation to clench crucial deals in the island.

Maldives during the last fortnight has witnessed a phase of intense political churning wherein the opposition and the ruling party have struck a political deal. While the opposition party MDP is conceived to be pro-Indian, the ruling party PPM is pro-China. The situation in Maldives is akin to Sri Lanka whose former President Rajapaksha with his leanings to China fostered cordial relations with Beijing as opposed to the present President Sirisena who is pro-India. While the situation is Sri Lanka is now propitious to India, the voices of pro-Indian party in Maldives led by MDP have buckled under pressure. In sheer despondency to secure freedom for their leader Nasheed, it is believed to have conceded to three conditions of the ruling party. The primary objective of the opposition is to ensure release of all political prisoners and dropping all the charges registered against them. The details of the political deal between the two parties were posted on the website too. These included a. Legislative support for certain projects b. Impeachment of vice president Jameel c. Constitutional changes to relax age limits of the president and vice-president.

Accordingly, some of the members of the opposition have cross-voted for the safe passage of the new land legislation. Opposition leader has issued whip to promulgate the impeachment of Vice president Jameel. In order to facilitate the promotion of the underage tourism minister, Ahmed Adeeb to the post of Vice president the opposition agreed to lower age limit to 18 despite its own reservations about the issue. In spite of the MDP party’s doubts about the veracity of the land legislation, it has yielded to ruling party’s demands out of desperation. But as yet the ruling party has not delivered on its promise and this might eventually lead to political unrest and a relentless wave of street protests. Even President Gayoom, half brother of Yameen who held on to power for more than three decades urged President Yameen to seek public opinion on ratification of this amendment.

As of now the message is loud and clear, the new constitutional amendment will pave way for the establishment of Chinese bases on the 1200 strong island conglomeration of Maldives eventually turning it into a Chinese colony. While Maldivian government has ensured India that they will strive to keep Indian Ocean region demilitarised, the statement holds no ground as the new legislation was laid out to benefit China. Ever since the political regime of Sri Lanka refused to be a charming piped piper to the dragon, it has turned its focus to Maldives. Sri Lanka was left high and dry as the Chinese investments in infrastructure projects left a trail of high debts with huge interest rates. The country now owes anywhere between 6 to 8 billion dollars to China.

Clearly Maldives political scenario has taken a discernible shift ever since Yameen’s government has come to power. India has every reason to be concerned as any perspicuous Chinese presence in its own backyard is an imminent threat.

 

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Wild Swans

The book “Wild Swans- the Three Daughters of China” authored by Jung Chang sold over 13 million copies left me exasperated. Published in 1991 it was translated into 30 languages. Of late I haven’t read any book which is so poignant, gripping and intense. The biography vividly describes series of upheavals faced by the main land China. It spans from the early twentieth century and describes major political, economical, socio-cultural transitions that shook the land home for over 90 million people.  I was awestruck by the sheer audacity of the three generation of the Women in the family of the author- her grandmother, mother and herself. The family memoir gives a detailed picture of the socio-cultural setup of China received highest acclaim across the World for the veracity of facts was unfortunately banned in China.

It opens a Pandora box that sheds light on the queasy details about their idolised leader Mao Zedong. The book provides an insight into the trials and tribulations faced by China and how rigorously native leadership worked to jealously guard its sovereignty threatened by the imperialist Japan.  In early twentieth century Chinese society was marred by glaring class discrepancies and rampant corruption of the government officials magnified it further. The memoir starts off with descriptions of the life of women around 1890 and dwells deeply about the early childhood of her grandmother. Traditionally women with bound feet were highly favoured in China as author narrates the grief of her grandmother whose feet remained bound from an age of 2 years with a 20 feet long cloth all along through the day and were let loose at night before sleep. The gruesome practice was aimed at restricted growth of feet by tucking the toes of the feet under the sole and tying them with a cloth. Weights were placed on feet to prevent the arch from protruding. Women with bound feet because of the vulnerability were believed to induce a feeling of protectiveness from the onlooker. The custom was so much in vogue that in those days groom’s parents would first examine the feet of the bride before marriage. Further, powerful and influential men were allowed to have any number of concubines and often the richness of a man was assessed by the number of concubines he possessed. While a legally wedded wife was given royal treatment, concubines in spite of going through the rituals of authentic marriage were not guaranteed any proprietary. 

The greedy father of author’s grandmother marries her off as a concubine to a Major General who was several years elder. Early traumas for her grandmother begin with the marriage and then she remains an outcast after the death of the Major General who by then is mother of 2 year old daughter. Fortunately, the grandmother discovers a true love in a doctor, a widower, who is 40 years elder to her. This second marriage creates a commotion in the extended family of the doctor and his immediate family comprising of sons, daughters and grandchildren disowns him. After going through a phase of utter poverty and depravation the family settles down respectably over a period of time in Manchuria. The Manchurian province of China during that period was politically turbulent with Japan struggling to retain its strong hold. This phase culminated with the end of Second World War when depleted Japan had acceded its territories, moved away its troops from China. This transition phase witnessed rise of two native leaderships trying to wrest their control over China. These include the Communists and the Kuomintang. In the meanwhile, the author’s mother who was very bright, fearless and undaunted woman slowly associates herself to the communist party working to throw away the Kuomintang from the main land China.

Jung Chang describes the pathetic state of affairs that took a huge toll on China and its people during the entire turn of events. Rampant poverty, lawlessness, corruption and espionage broke the backbone of the economy. Though Communists managed to wrest control over China after a civil war, they were hell bent on obliterating all traces of Kuomintang. In this pursuit, all the individuals, associations and the people who have worked under Kuomintang were tortured, executed and penalised heavily. They were literally hunted down. Simultaneously they aspired to revamp the traditional Chinese society with their socialist ideology. Inspired by the humanistic approach of the Communists author’s mother decides to completely dedicate herself to the party ideologies. She then meets an intelligent, hardworking and ardent follower of the Communist ideology and marries him. Soon the married couple worked aggressively for the party’s ideologies. Since they are in party’s ambit all their actions needed approval and were under constant surveillance. There was no place for privacy and the budding relationship began to bear the brunt of ideology. The young couple were not allowed to live together, they weren’t allowed to make personal decisions, were forced to live in dormitories and had to eat in the community canteens. These strict measures began to take a toll on the relationship. Slightest self indulgences were touted as offences and were forced to write self-criticism notes. All the members were subjected to severe scrutiny by the party and were forced to explain themselves for any deviant behaviour during meetings.

Author’s father being an ardent communist refused to make slightest concessions to her mother even during pregnancy. Rigours ordeals and tenuous marching camps along the mountainous areas without rest resulted in abortion of their first child. During the early days when communists attained power, all the items were rationed and individuals were granted only requisite amount of supplies for a month. Even minute aspects like sharing of hot water allotted to spouse were condemned. But situation began to improve when author’s father began to steadily climb the hierarchy. By the time author was 6 years old her parents were allotted a spacious apartment, kids had a wet nurse and were travelling by car. Peasants during the early phase of Communist rule were happy as they hugely benefitted by the community kitchens backed by collective farming that ensured good share of food to all farmers.

Meanwhile, Mao announced a hundred flowers policy in 1956 which was aimed at providing greater freedom to arts, literature and scientific research. The country more or less functioned like a dictatorship endowing very little freedom to people. For a period of one year, country enjoyed little relaxation following which in 1957 Mao appealed to intellectuals to criticize officials giving an impression that country is becoming modern and democratic. Wary of Hungarian kind of uprising against communist regime Mao employed this ploy and solicited views of the educated community. Unaware of Mao’s tactics, intellectuals enthusiastically expounded their views and were subsequently labelled as “rightists”. About half million of such individuals from all walks of life were effectively purged off from their jobs and sent off to country side to do manual jobs. Their families were treated as second-class citizens. Mao thus effectively annihilated opposition as all voices were completely silenced.

Soon things began to take an ugly shape following overwhelming obsession of Mao to make steel collectively. While the objective of transforming the traditionally agrarian society of China through rapid industrialisation collectively is worthy, the path adopted to achieve it was utterly ridiculous. Accordingly, people were prohibited from cooking food at home and all the fuel supplies were supposed to be used to incessantly burn the furnace to make steel. All the scrap metal be it furniture, spare parts or whatever were collected and thrown into the furnace for producing steel. While kids were expected to collect the metal pieces along roads, parks etc adult were expected to keep the furnace burning uninterruptedly. Farmers too were not spared, they were ordered to cut down trees and with collectively efforts indulged in making steel. This ludicrous effort prevented farmers from working in fields. Subsequently, crop yields drastically fell. Since trees were indiscriminately felled to feed the burning furnaces, rainfall became erratic. Finally the event ended in a catastrophe initially leading to famine during 1958 to 1961 and resulting in the death of around 40 million people. Alarmed officials who sent distress signals to Mao were severely denounced. Soon even party officials who assessed the negative effects of Great Leap Forward began to criticize Mao and soon he was marginalised. Mao came up with the idea of Cultural Revolution in 1966 spear headed by his wife Jiang Qing designed to assert his control over China.

The movement which spread like a wild fire was taken over paramilitary force of students who assumed the name of Red Guards and carried out the objectives of the revolution. With an aim of establishing absolute authority of Mao the agitation was expected to eliminate “capitalist-roaders” in other words- dissidents in party cadres, scholars, official and intellectuals. The movement also called for destruction of four olds-old customs, culture, habits and ideas. Overpowered by the support from the Chairman Mao students went on rampage and anything/ anyone objectionable to the principles enunciated by Mao were destroyed. Having beautiful lawns, pleasurable lives, poetry, art forms, enjoying a tea in coffee shops were all considered “bourgeois” and pulled down. Life soon became insipid, dull and moreover violent. Even the traditional structures, paintings, monuments, artefacts, books in the library with classical literature were ruined. During this period avowed communists who served and worked for the country alarmed by the ruthless destruction began writing to the higher ups in the party questioning the credence of the movement. Author’s father Chang wrote directly to Mao apprising him of the sad state of affairs becoming the hot target of the Red Guards.

Instantaneously, Chang, head of the Yibin province was extricated from his official duties, condemned during the denunciation meetings where he was forced to accept his mistake. During the meetings, he was publicly humiliated, head half tonsured, brutally beaten, assaulted and thrashed but he remained intransigent. Similarly author’s mother was hunted down for her distant relations with the Kuomintang official during her youthful days. She too was tortured and made to kneel on the broken pieces of glass. Later she was under detention for an undisclosed period of time. Chang was emotionally shaken as his unstinted devotion towards the communist ideology was questioned and tormented. He soon became insane but was denied of treatment and rehab as he was stamped as capitalist-roader. In the meanwhile, all the children of capitalist-roaders were packed off to country side especially to counties in hills and assigned menial and arduous jobs. Thus the family of seven was separated and thrown off into different places. Unable to bear the atrocities suffered by each of the family members’ grandmother finally succumbed to an untreated disease. Unable to bear the rampant cruelty, torture and suspicion several thousands have committed suicides. Even Chang burdened by the abuse, mistrust and incriminated for obstinately sticking to communist ideology died in 1972. The revolution which lasted for almost a decade resulted in persecution of 1.5 million people and lives of several millions were brutally trampled. Economy was reduced to tatters and destabilised the country socially. Curtains finally rolled over the entire massacre with the death of Mao in 1976. Jung Chang who was a brilliant student with her sheer intelligence managed to get scholarship to study in West. She was the first Chinese Woman to obtain a Ph.D and then settled in London.

The sheer high-handedness, strict control and flagrant repression of fundamental rights like the freedom of expression, speech and liberty of the citizens by the government sheds light on the unheard stories and darkest days of the Communist China. The bone chilling episodes and extent of brutality sent shivers across the spine. The cries of hapless people tried for no fault of theirs evokes pity. As Citizens of largest democracy it is time we be eternally grateful to the system which has bestowed on us the priceless treasure of fundamental rights. The book reminded me of the loud admonitions of the Indian Elite and Leftist intellectuals who crib about the liberal setup of India and tries to downplay it more often. Significantly the author concludes that “He (Mao) was as evil as Hitler or Stalin and did as much damage to mankind as they did”. But he was smart enough to pass off European despots without much condemnation and without denting his image.

 

 

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Curtains drawn over NSA Level Talks

The NSA level talks between India and Pakistan after hitting a Shakespearean dilemma has entered into imperturbable phase of stern talk. It has finally hit the logjam with Pakistan calling off the talks (1). Political slug fest which initially eroded the veracity of the issue was steered into a suddenly dominated by redlines drawn by Sushma Swaraj, who clearly enunciated of the guidelines of the talks. Her presser literally sealed off scope for arguments by loose cannons on either side. India reminded Pakistan of the agreed agenda of the talks and reiterated that it wouldn’t budge from its stance. New Delhi maintained that talks would be on matters related to terrorism and that it will be between the NSA’s of both countries and hence intervention of a third party is strictly prohibited.

The uninterrupted trail of ceasefire violations that began days after the Ufa talks and continued through the Independence Day celebrations of both the nations and later, have reached crescendo warranting serious attention. As the time for the talks between the Security Advisors of both countries is nearing more noxious attempts to abort them are ratcheted up by the Pakistani side.

The unnecessary drama cropped up by virtue of the needless extrapolation and variegated interpretation of the joint statement released at Ufa by the Pakistani side. While the two Prime Ministers have agreed along the margins of SCO to have talks on terror Pakistan has intentionally sidelined the guidelines by raising the invincible Kashmir issue. This is not first time talks between the two nations are on the verge of standoff, this tenor has been in vogue since 1990 (2). In 1999, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee made stupendous efforts to bring about peace between the nations and started a bus service between Delhi-Lahore. Vajpayee too travelled to Lahore in February and both nations signed the illustrious Lahore Declaration to uphold peace and stability between the countries. This declaration significantly raised hopes about peaceful resolution of disputes between the nations. But the Indian peace efforts were sabotaged within couple of months by massive infiltration bids by Mujahideen that escalated into Kargil war. In fact it has been become compulsive obsession of Pakistan to annihilate the initiatives for dialogue and peace talks.

Emphatically this time around Pakistan has played every trick in the book to shelve down the NSA talks. This trend has been evident from the untenable escalation of cease fire violations along the LoC and International Border. The horrendous terrorist attacks in the suburban district of Gurdaspur and killing of civilians in Udhampur threatened to erode peace talks. In the meanwhile, capture of live Pakistani trained terrorist Naveed added much weight to India’s claims of cross border terrorism perpetrated by Pakistan which in turn vehemently rejected New Delhi’s assertions. Propitiously India just before NSA talks managed to uncover the surreptitious claims of Pakistan about Dawood Ibrahim, the organiser and financier of Mumbai blasts. According to an investigation report, Dawood cowering in Pakistan has three dubious passports and nine residences across the country (3). India has now prepared a dossier with all the relevant evidences. Dawood was declared as global terrorist by US State Department in 2003 but Pakistan deliberately didn’t issue red corner notice and refused to take action against him. While there are mounting evidences against Pakistan for sponsoring, patronising and providing safe havens to terrorists it adamantly evades straight questions and lives in denial.

By now Pakistan should have understood the intentions of the NDA government headed by Modi from the predicament of cancellation the foreign secretary level talks between the countries following Pakistani High Commissioner’s rendezvous with Hurriyat leaders. While Modi hasn’t missed an opportunity to communicate with his counterpart in Pakistan he has set a red line by indicating that talks would be between the governments and that Hurriyat has no place on negotiation table. Thereby the message is loud and clear. In order to put the onus of calling off talks on India Pakistan invited Hurriyat leaders for NSA talks saying that they are equal stakeholders.

In the meanwhile the Indian U-turn of initially keeping the Hurriyat leaders under house arrest and then releasing them within 170 minutes created lot of commotion and generated lot of political dissonance within the country. Pakistan then made Hurriyat leaders presence as precondition for talks. The real breakthrough and tough talking by Indian side cleared the cloud and finally Pakistan called off the talks.

With sparring hitting a new high, NSA talks would have definitely failed to achieve any breakthrough and would have remained a non event. But they could have set a ground for future dialogue. Though the calls have been called off it is highly pertinent to discuss the new found resilience displayed by Pakistan. South Asia is literally simmering under the burden of homebred and viciously patronised terrorism. The unabated violence and the rejuvenated intensity of the Taliban attacks in Afghanistan are sending alarm bells. Pakistan which promised the big brother US shouldered the responsibility of sweeping off the mess in the Afghan following the slow retraction of NATO troops. It then roped in China and deliberately sidelined India in the process of initiation of peace talks between Talibans and the Afghan government. In the meanwhile startling details began to emerge as the peace process began with Pakistan declaring the death of Taliban Chief Mullah Omar. This incident threw light on the unity of Taliban as reports indicated that under the Pakistan’s reinstated leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammed Mansour, the organisation began to disintegrate since the new leader doesn’t have approval of all the cadres. Meanwhile, Afghan president Mohammed Ashraf Ghani totally reposed faith in Pakistan’s mediation and expected that conditions would improve. (Instead situation began to deteriorate as Pakistan failed to rein in on various factions of Taliban). With two superpowers (Russia in the late 90’s and US rather recently) wresting their control off the Afghanistan, Pakistan is feeling empowered.  With US getting ready for Presidential elections its approach towards Afghanistan has become disoriented.

Pakistan was invigorated with President Obama proposing to dispense a financial bounty of $1 billion in April 2015. This was followed by $46 billion investment promise by China in development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. It recently hit upon a jackpot with reports indicating Russia under burgeoning financial pressure agreed to sell 4 Mi-35 military helicopters to Pakistan besides building a $2 billion worth natural gas line to Islamabad (4). Together these propitious developments ushered Pakistan to step up its ante against India.

In fact the tide began to turn around and Pakistan is failing to decipher the ominous signs. In a strong worded message to Pakistan Afghan President questioned the commitment of Pakistan and opined that it is better off without its intervention (5). He lambasted Pakistan of nurturing terror havens and for patronising the Taliban insurgents. The US too is disappointed with Islamabad for failing to reign on Haqqani network and refused to certify its counter-terrorism operations. This may consequentially result in halting of release of new tranche of financial aid to Pakistan from Coalition Support Fund (CSF) (6). Perhaps, taking cognisance of souring relations with the US, Russia might have agreed to deliver military helicopters. While this sudden change of stance by Russia might definitely hurt Indian interests, New Delhi hasn’t responded to it as of now. Interestingly, Modi’s recent visit to UAE has opened new vistas of strategic cooperation and the joint statement on terrorism suggested that both nations are on same page. India has now become increasingly assertive. Unlike his predecessors Modi refuses to accept no-nonsense. His bold move against Hurriyat definitely reflected the muscularity of government and in fact sent a strong message across border. Despite the acrimony caused by calling off talks, it will be no surprise if Modi calls upon Nawaz Sharif at UN General Assembly meetings.

1. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Pakistan-calls-off-NSA-level-talks-says-conditions-set-by-India-unacceptable/articleshow/48627721.cms
2. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/nsa-talks-why-delhi-is-playing-hardball-and-whats-the-risk/
3.  http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-prepares-dossier-on-Dawood-Ibrahim-says-he-has-9-residences-in-Pakistan/articleshow/48624273.cms
4. http://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-warms-up-to-russia-with-helicopter-deal-1440086692
5. http://www.dawn.com/news/1199613
6. http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/us-set-to-suspend-military-aid-to-pakistan/

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Good Tidings from UAE

Staving off the diplomatic lethargy and the political diffidence that imperilled India’s foreign policy strategies, Modi’s standalone visit to UAE brought good tidings to the nation. During the visit Modi threw weight around building energy ties, made a progress in convincing the investors in UAE of personal attention and sought investments for infrastructure development and energy exploration. The Indian leadership successfully garnered support of the desert nation in bringing about an emphatic joint statement to truncate far flung tentacles of terrorism and violence carried under the banner of religion.

India inherited the legacy of the British who offered security guarantees and managed external relations to the small independent countries in the Gulf during the early 19^th century. After independence Indian leadership failed to emulate the British and thus the historical, traditional and cultural relations with these nations became decadent. Incidentally Pakistan put the inherited legacy to best use and fostered its ties with all these nations. India having lost an opportunity solicited Pakistan’s help and aspired to build its relations with Muslim World through its prism and failed miserably (1). Consequently Gulf nations later on didn’t lend support to India on the K-issue. Understandably Gulf nations failed to comprehend the difficulties faced by India in dealing with cross- border terrorism emanating from its western neighbour. Hence issuing joint statement on terrorism by nations assumes great significance. It is truly a moment of triumphalism for India. The joint statement urged nations to dismantle the terror hubs in their respective territories, abandon use of terrorism and to denounce the sectarian violence. The message perceived to be a veiled reference to Pakistan reiterates the urgent need to evolve a framework for overcoming the scourging menace of terrorism and religious extremism. Modi in fact stuck a right chord with Middle East countries that are now increasingly threatened by the rising clout of the IS. The cooperation on counter terrorism has come at a propitious time when Gulf nations have adopted East policy.

Further both nations agreed to work together to regulate, control and share intelligence information regarding the terror modules besides keeping a check on the source and flow of funds to the radical organisations and individuals associated with them. Accordingly, the National Security Advisors (NSA)s of both countries would meet every six months. India and UAE have also decided to strengthen maritime security through regular joint exercises of air, naval and Special Forces in the Gulf and Indian Ocean Region. UAE accepted Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) proposed by India. Eventually this will facilitate the acceptance of the proposal by 57 countries of the Organisation of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC).  Modi first voiced his concerns about terrorism on his maiden address to the UN General Assembly in September 2014. CCIT aims to integrate various agreements on counter-terrorism that can effectively clamp down safe havens of terror (2). UAE has even backed India’s bid for a permanent position in the UN Security Council.

India’s relationship UAE so far revolved around the matters of Indian Expatriate Community working in UAE, their welfare, economic cooperation, trade investments and oil imports. Modi’s bilateral visit accomplished a significant financial outcome with UAE setting up UAE-Indian Infrastructure Investment Fund worth $75 billion. The investment is more than the amount pledged by the Asian giants- Japan $20 billion and China $15 billion. 31 agreements were signed as a part of this investment with special focus on restructuring and modernising India’s infrastructure road, rail, ports, industrial corridors and parks. It is also agreed to increase the bilateral trade by 60%. Further UAE would participate in the manufacture of defence equipment in India providing momentum to “ Make in India” initiative.

Modi during his talks with investors at Masdar City, the Zero-Carbon city has projected that India has potential to absorb investment of $1 Trillion in areas like infrastructure, agriculture and warehouses (3). The countries agreed on promoting strategic partnership in energy sector through UAE’s participation in “the development of petroleum reserves, upstream and downstream petroleum sectors and collaboration in third countries”. Besides both countries signed several agreements in the sectors of agriculture, health, science and technology.

In a rare diplomatic gesture Modi was received by Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan and his five brothers with a 21-gun salute at the airport subsequently both leaders had extended talks on various issues. Modi reached out to the Indian expatriate community by travelling to the Industrial City Abu Dhabi (ICAD) in Mussafah. 65% of 2.65 million large Indian Expatriate community in UAE consists of the semi-skilled and unskilled labour. Modi met a group of 200 representatives gathered in the recreation centre at the Indian Camp (4). Indian labour working in the Gulf countries are subjected to a contract system (Kafala) whereby their passports are confiscated and are forced to live in inhabitable circumstances. The grave working conditions of the Indian workers is an issue of great concern and this visit is believed to address some of the issue.

Modi finally wrapped up the tour to UAE by addressing the Indian Diaspora at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium. Amidst loud cheers of 50,000 people Modi conversed in length about India’s relations with its all SAARC neighbours barring Pakistan. During the speech he made digs at Pakistan for sponsoring cross-border and appealed to nations that there is no good or bad Taliban and similarly good or bad terrorism. Modi audaciously appealed to the like-minded nations to come together to fight against terrorism for welfare of the humankind at large. Raising a pitch against terrorism on a Muslim territory indeed summons great courage and conviction. Quite characteristic of his address to Indian Diaspora on foreign lands, he infused a renewed sense of optimism about progress of country. He commended the hard work of the Indian community, thanked the crown prince for the warm welcome and for allotting land for construction of Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi. He promised all help to the Indian Labourers in UAE and announced few initiatives formulated by the Ministry of Over Seas Indian Affairs for the welfare of the Indian Expatriate community in the Gulf. These include creation of e-migration portal MADAD to assist Diaspora, an Indian Community Welfare Fund (ICWF) for Diaspora to help in legal cases. He instructed the Indian Embassy to increase number of schools and directed them to set up counsellor camps once a month in the places with huge Indian population (5).

Modi injected a germane optimism in the Indo-UAE relations. But a section of political analysts parsimoniously projected this visit as a part of larger political game plan to reach out to the people in South, since a huge chunk of Indian expatriates in UAE are from South India. His trip to the grand Sheikh Zayed Mosque was depicted as a calibrated move aimed at creating a positive impact on the minority voters in Bihar. As per the reigning trend in India the elite and liberals every act of Modi is judged through the prism of religion. It is no surprise that newspapers are enamoured by strident religious overtones leaving little scope for meaningful reflections on Modi’s first visit to Arab World. It is imprudent to signal that Modi’s visit to the UAE is an effort to make forays into Muslim World and to placate the apprehensions of domestic Muslims. Modi is executing right diplomatic strategy by playing into the rift Pakistan has created for itself with UAE by remaining neutral to the Yemeni Crisis (6). Congruently, India can be a right match for UAE aspiring to emerge as finance, technology and tourism based economy. UAE’s pursuit to transform into a modern economy is incompatible with the religious extremism. Evidently Modi’s bilateral visit to UAE is clearly synced with the objectives of the Arab nation.

In a major departure from traditional thinking on the region Modi made an unprecedented decision of reaching out to its neighbours in the West seeking new opportunities. In line with the changing geo-political strategies and scenarios where strangers are becoming bed mates, Modi seized the rare moment to forge friendship with the Gulf. The visit is indeed iconic, for India obtained support and empathy for its long standing security issues from the closest neighbour of Pakistan. Interestingly, for the larger fraction of the Indian community who is apologetic of its Hindu identity, a perceived staunch Hindutva leader obtained permission for Hindu temple in that part of world. The seeds of change sowed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee (6) yielded result and instead of being celebratory the issued is muzzled. Having roped up bountiful investments from UAE it is time for New Delhi to chalk out concrete plans and set the ground for transforming our economy.

 

1. http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/looking-beyond-pakistan-india-and-the-uae-forge-a-new-partnership/
2. http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/signal-to-pakistan-india-gets-uae-s-backing-in-fighting-terrorism/article1-1381097.aspx
3. http://www.livemint.com/Politics/1TdS2GJfLiTHTvaIZYkW2N/Narendra-Modi-seeks-1-trillion-in-investments-from-UAE.html
4. http://www.thenational.ae/uae/government/abu-dhabi-crown-prince-welcomes-indian-pm-modi
5. http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/Modi-Announces-Welfare-Fund-E-Migrant-Portal-for-Expats/2015/08/18/article2979719.ece
6. http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/raja-mandala-call-of-the-gulf/
7. http://www.abplive.in/india/2015/08/18/article687503.ece/Narendra-Modi-reaps-what-Atal-Bihari-Vajpayee-sowed-in-desert

Modi’s Visit to UAE

Prime Minister’s stand alone trip to United Arab Emirates (UAE), the first ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister in 34 years is drawing lot of attention. Indira Gandhi was the last Indian Prime Minister to have visited Emirates. In 2013, Man Mohan Singh was all set to fly to Abu Dhabi but the visit was cancelled at the eleventh hour. In the meanwhile speculations are rife that the sudden visit to UAE is an attempt to assuage Arab fears before Modi’s scheduled visit to Israel in September.

This visit brings to fore Modi’s proposition of “Link West” rationale and accentuates importance of Middle East in India’s energy security. While there are various multilateral forums to routinely engage with South East Asian countries, due to non-existence of such institutional framework, India has to take initiative to engage with the Middle East. With scheduled visit to UAE would cater to India’s enthusiasm to make forays into Middle East. India’s relations with Middle East were dogged by ideological inhibitions (1). Sources from Ministry of External Affairs indicate that Modi might soon be touring Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia on his way back from the G-20 summit in Antalya, Turkey.

During the two day visit on August 16^th Modi will meet the crown prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed and UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum. His itinerary includes a visit to Sheikh Zayed grand mosque, an exquisite masterpiece of Muslim architecture and Masdar city, a Zero Carbon city. Besides he will attend grand reception arranged by the Indian expatriate community and address them at the Dubai International Sports Stadium. The India Community Welfare Committee (ICWC) has revved up its preparations for the spectacular reception on the evening of August 17^th.

Despite growing turbulence in the region all the South Asian countries and India in particular are still attracted to the Arabian Peninsula. The region besides employing millions of India is the source for huge remittances sent home by the Indian Diaspora and an energy-hungry India sources its oil imports from the Gulf.  Unfortunately, in spite of geographical proximity and strong economical relationship with the Gulf India has significantly failed in fortifying a reliable political engagement.

India largely inherited the strategic maritime primacy of the British harboured grand ambitions to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. But post partition all its military energies were expended in guarding borders from its hostile neighbours Pakistan and China. Thus India’s abilities to extend its purview have been severely constrained. India in a bid to improve its relations with Pakistan invested such extraordinary diplomatic efforts that severely curtailed its engagement with Muslim countries in the neighbourhood and with Gulf in particular. The economic reforms revived India’s economic conditions and its sustained growth and potential consumer market demand soon began to draw attention of major countries including the Arab states (2). India is now considered as a serious strategic partner owing to its geographical positioning too. Unlike the UPA government which failed to make forays into the Gulf region the NDA seems to have realised the need to strategically engage with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The GCC supplies 45% of India’s petroleum.

The GCC (includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE) now have adopted “Look East” policy and more inclined to strengthen relations with India. Further the destination for majority of its workforce is India. Indian expatriate community in UAE include 15% of qualified personnel, 20 % white-collar non-professionals and 60% blue-collar workers (3). UAE has declared 2015 as the “year of innovation” and intends to transform itself into a knowledge-based economy (4). Emphatically, Indian leadership must take initiative to forge partnership between Indian institutes and research centres with their equal counterparts in UAE and work towards mutual capacity building and know-how.

India and UAE have strong friendship due to their close cultural, religious and economic ties. The sturdy economic and commercial cooperation between the two countries is the key aspect for the bilateral relationship. Indians are the most important investors in UAE while India is a major market for its manufactured goods. The trade between the nations which was $70 million in 1970 is now around $ 60 billion. UAE is the third largest trading partner of India after the US and China. UAE was the top most export destination for India last year. India in turn majorly imports petrol and UAE is the sixth largest supplier of crude oil to India. It is the tenth biggest investor in India. India and UAE signed Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPA) which provides a comprehensive framework for investors in both countries in 2013. But unfortunately investments made by UAE in India are $3.68 billion as against India’s $55 billion in UAE. Major UAE investors in India include the Emaar MGF, DK World and RAK Ceramics and others. UAE has the second largest sovereign wealth fund (SWF) under the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) has assets worth $800 billion and India is keen on tapping potential investments towards infrastructure development (5).

UAE is the host for a large population of Indian expatriate community of about 2.65 million sending remittances worth $15 billion. The Indian expatriates from UAE constitute the top remitters followed by their counterparts in the US which sent $11.17 billion 2014. Indians constitute the third largest ethnic population visiting UAE (6). Indian Work force accounts for 30% of the population in UAE.

In the recent past there has been renewed cooperation between India and UAE. In 2012, Abu Dhabi National Petroleum Corporation obtained an engineering contract of India’s ONGC in Mumbai High Field and worked towards building offshore platforms. Abu Dabhi National Energy Company PSJC (TAQA) in 2014 invested $616 million in two power plants Baspa II and 1000MW Karcham Wangtoo power plants in Himachal Pradesh and now exploring the possibility of working towards development of clean energy with India.

India’s trade and energy needs are inextricably linked to the security of the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb. Realising this paradox Indian Navy regularly trains with the respective Arab states in the region paving way for expanding its reach in the region. Gulf of Aden provides access to Suez Canal which is a major transit region for Indian goods. All these aspects highlight India’s stakes in this region and underline the need for building strategic cooperation with the region (7).

The metric of geopolitical scenario is rapidly changing wherein traditional alliances are falling apart and unexpected ties are heralded. Orthodox critics largely apprehend that India might be forced to choose between the Arab States and Israel for they believe that enhancing relations with Israel might hamper India’s traditional ties with the Arabs.  Indeed the rivalry between these nations began to fade way away. With the US making nuclear agreement with Iran, Saudi Arabia more subtly and Israel has more openly lashed out their fears about the resurgence Iran. The intense rivalry witnessed in the Arabian Peninsula is now more of an ideological clash between Sunni’s and Shia’s and has become a matter of wielding hegemony in the region. Analysts are now predicting a possible alliance between the Arab states and Israel. With the tyrannical rise of the Islamic State the Arab states are feeling more threatened and compelled to seal grossly unexpected alliances (8). It is time that India breaks free and strives hard to fortify relations with UAE.

In addition to exploring the possibilities for enhancing economic ties another important area of strategic cooperation is counter terrorism, exchange of information regarding the terror groups, military exercises and maritime security. It is anticipated that Prime Minister in his meeting with the political leadership would seek help for the release of 39 Indians held in captivity by the IS. Unlike the Indian Diaspora in other countries UAE is home to a large number of blue-collared Indian workers who live in squalid conditions. The visit provides yet another opportunity to Indian leadership to address the problems of the unskilled and semi-skilled people and their welfare. UAE doesn’t confer any permanent membership and hence all of them have to return home. Indian labourers working in the Gulf are victims of abuse, live in sub standard conditions and are vulnerable to exploitation by agents. The visit is a great opportunity for the Indian leadership to work towards evolving new mechanisms of grievance–redressal to improve the situation of thousands of Indian labour (9). Also treaties and agreements on extradition, mutual legal assistance in civil and criminal issues and combating trafficking in narcotics are other issues which need bilateral cooperation.

As against the incipient political reluctance displayed by the previous UPA government it is time for Modi to infuse new energy and steer ahead with an agenda of strategic cooperation with UAE, a vibrant hub of economic development.


@ Copyrights reserved.

1.      http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/modi-and-the-middle-east-towards-a-link-west-policy/

2.      http://www.cftni.org/monograph-indias-growing-role-in-the-gulf.pdf

3.      http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/UAE_2015_07_02.pdf

4.     http://www.eurasiareview.com/11082015-modis-uae-visit-to-help-fortify-critical-linkages-oped/

5.     http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/modi-visit-uae-s-800-bn-sovereign-wealth-fund-likely-in-talks-115081201714_1.html

6.    http://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/economy/half-of-remittances-from-uae-go-to-india

7.    http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/narendra-modis-uae-trip-highlights-indias-shifting-middle-east-approach/

8.     http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/modi-in-the-gulf/

9.     http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/in-fact-why-the-pms-visit-to-the-uae-could-be-among-his-most-significant-so-far/

 

Disturbing stand-off in Parliament

Unlike the fist Parliamentary session of the NDA government which received thumbs up for maximum productivity the monsoon session of 15^th Lok Sabha is marred by opposition deadlock. The monsoon session spanning from July 21^st to Aug 13, 2015 was expected to be turbulent with opposition grinding teeth over the Lalit gate row with media stirring massive debates over Sushma Swaraj's and Vasundhra Raje's involvement and facilitation of Lalit Modi’s passage to London and  Shivaraj Singh Chouhan under scanner in Vyapam scam. The parliament entered into an indefinite logjam with opposition persistent on resignation of the cabinet minister and two chief ministers and refusing to relent.

The protests within the Parliament, slogan shouting has reached such a crescendo that the speaker was forced to seek refuge of the legislation to suspend the unruly MPs of the opposition. Eventually the disruptions orchestrated by the congress MPs with a tip off from Rahul Gandhi held unusually large sized placards overhead chasing the cameras. This unruly behaviour led to the suspension of 25 congress MP under rule 374 (A) for “persistently, wilfully obstructing the parliament”. This was immediately followed by sit-in protests within and outside the Parliament and entered the next stage of dharna before the house of the speaker and office of the BJP. The suspension in fact brought the sworn enemies together with members from JD (U), AAP, Trinamool Congress, Left, SP leaders coming together. The series of the events and the press statements released later on by the respective party Chiefs has really raised doubts about the commitment and morality of the political parties. With of each of them projecting themselves as the victims of the ruling excesses and trying to portray themselves as the upholders of democracy.

In fact perpetual outlandish attacks, bearish remarks and the unrelenting bad propaganda invariably reiterate that opposition and media that scoffed at Narendra Modi as the "merchant of death" refuse to accept him as the Prime Minister. The illogical transgressions, incongruent statements after any landmark feat achieved by the new government have been meted with suspicion, rancour and scorn. It is pathetic that even issues concerning the security of the country are discussed in the same vein lending more leeway to the enemy countries like Pakistan. While disagreements, debates and arguments are part of the democratic country like India where voices of people are represented and respected stalling the house to vent out frustrations is unacceptable. Simply put, this reflects the inability of the iconic Nehru-Gandhi scions to accept the humiliating defeat handed over to them.  Consequently they are lambasting the BJP with ballistic outbursts and the destructive parliamentary behaviour followed by them during the UPA regime. The Congress is now paying it back to the BJP in the same coin.

The theatrics opposition parties and their entourage on the floor of house are reeking under the stench of revenge politics, long drawn animosities and marked by intolerance. The inimical frustration of the opposition is evident from the new found enthusiasm of Sonia Gandhi in addressing press meets unlike the decade long hushed silence over the eruption of various scams. While the opposition has been crying foul lashing out at the speaker “as suicide of the democracy” upon their expulsion it is time for soul searching.

The people of the country have bestowed decisive mandate after three decades aspiring for parivartan. Deprived of access to even basic necessities they desperately wanted to shake off the inertia of the political system, break the gridlock of policy paralysis and false pretexts of working under the dictum of political parties. All the hopes of the electorate are petering out due to stalling of Parliament. Frequent disruptions of the parliament and frivolous disagreements would not only take a toll on the economy but sends out a wrong message to other nations. 

In a significant relief yesterday SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav gave a call to end longstanding impasse at the Parliament subsequently all opposition parties voiced their willingness to resume work. Today when the GST bill which was cleared by the standing committee and LOk Sabha was introduced in the Upper House, it was welcomed by ruckus and uproar which has now become characteristic of the Congress. Congress has been the original author of the bill and its stiff resistance to the passage reinstates its chartered course action in politics of revenge as opposed to working towards economic development of the nation.

Shifting of blame for listlessness in the Parliament between the ruling party and the opposition must end. Leaders must draw down curtains on their unbecoming political manifestoes. Repeated adjournments are making a mockery of the Parliamentary system of government which was eloquently used by several nations to egg onto the ladder of the development. With people conferring an unprecedented majority to the ruling party the onus lies on them to reach out to the opposition party and ensure proper functioning of the Parliament. Indeed our beloved President Late Dr. A. P. J. Abdul Kalam lamented over the sheer loss of productive functioning of Parliament and warned that it is high time we make some legislation that can control and check the frequent logjams. Opposition parties who are trying the disruptive tactics to occupy the front page of newspapers must understand that stalling parliament is synonymous to disrespecting people’s mandate. As the largest democratic country in the World political parties must thrive to set a classical example of running this huge country amicably rather than squabbling for petty political mileages. 

 

@ Copyrights reserved.

Sino-Russian Kinship poised to challenge the US hegemony

There has been a steady and dynamic unravelling of new geopolitical strategies in the Indo-Pacific region in the recent past. With Japan passing a legislation unleashing its latent Samurai, it can now deploy armed forces overseas even in absence of an imminent threat to Japan. This new resolve for defence-assertiveness drew flak from China who construed it as Japan’s return to its militarist past. Russia too quickly joined the bandwagon and intensified the deployment of armed forces along its Eastern border and in the disputed Kuril Islands referred to as Northern territories by the Japan on which Tokyo lays its claims. Russia and China are now factoring in various strategies and recently announced plans for second round of joint military exercise in the Sea of Japan in August. It is believed that Russia is going to deploy 20 of its war ships, helicopters and air force. This second round of joint exercise is follow-up of first military showdown in the Mediterranean Sea in May (1).

Russia has now recently released a document outlining its naval policy valid till 2020 with constructive engagement with China as its corner stone. The tensions in the South China Sea too has been spiralling up with China raising alarm over the seven hour long surveillance mission carried out the US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Scott Swift in the region. This was quickly followed by deployment of 100 armed troops in the South China Sea during military manoeuvres. More disturbing reports that emerged suggest that the US, China and Russia are now drawn into a race of developing the hypersonic weapons to have military edge. Hypersonic weapons capable of racing at speed beyond Mach-5 have a longer range precision strike, endowed with ability to carry nuclear war heads are almost impossible to intercept by the traditional missile defence systems. Moreover their unpredictable trajectory makes them the most dangerous weapons of modern warfare. The military superiority of the US is now under serious threat with Russia and China trying to reach each other. Together with all these three nations chasing to ascertain their supremacy over the contemporary geopolitics the delicate global balance of power is under significant threat.

Russo-Chinese relations are now intensely discussed among the diplomatic circles following the promise of closer dialogue and engagement on various issues along the sidelines of two recently concluded summits- BRICS and SCO at Ufa in Russia. Russia under the strain of its crumbling economy and falling rouble is now warming up to China. Bundled under cumulative pressure of sanctions by the European nations and the US for annexing Crimea and for the violence in Ukraine Russia is now wooing Beijing (2). China inturn is looking forward to Moscow for advanced war weaponry. In a joint communiqué issued at SCO, both countries reiterated their commitment to fight terrorism in Central Asia and Xinjiang province of China (3).

Russia and China are currently the two largest communist countries in the World that confounded in similar ideology till 1956 but with Sino-Soviet split in 1960 the differences became intractable (4). Both nations sparred with each other in 1969 over the possession of Zhenabo islands and then subsequently reached border agreement in 1995. Final Sino-Russian border agreement regarding other eastern parts of the border was resolved in 2008 (5). Diplomatic relations between the two countries transformed into a meaningful dialogue post cold-war era, where Russia yearned for an ally in the West dominated world. But the trade investments and Chinese migrants are viewed suspiciously by Russians who are wary of Chinese intentions. Some strategists even assert that China is greedily eyeing the covetous treasures of the least inhabited region of Russia, Siberia. In fact post World War II Japan wanted to make investments in Siberia, but as its economy stagnated, Tokyo retreated. China, with its large purse is by far more interested in Siberia. Russia beset with its economic degradation and social instability is cognizant of Beijing’s dubious interests is cautious. Russia fears the colonial mindset of China. To assuage fears of the natives in Far East, it has doubled its naval presence in the Pacific region as a defence primarily against Japan and to counter the growing maritime abilities of China (6).

The bilateral relationship reached a zenith as the countries sealed $400 billion worth energy deal for a period of 30years. Accordingly the energy super power Russia agreed to supply 30 billion cubic meters annually to per year to China, the largest importer of oil and natural gas by 2018. With Russia completely severing its ties with Europe to which it has been exporting oil, China is now going to replace Germany and emerge as Russia’s largest energy market. While the energy deal was conceived to be profitable for China it is the only economy that has the financial capacity and ability to consume the huge oil and natural gas resources of Russia. Russian oil giant Rosenft has agreed to sell 10 % of its shares in oil firms at Siberia to the China National Petroleum Corporation (7).

In reality the sanctions imposed by the west served as a catalyst for rejuvenation of ties between Russia and China. Post cold war, Kremlin wanted to be associated with European countries. Russia reached out to Berlin since it believed that amalgamation of German technological expertise its energy reserves can lay foundation for a robust friendship (8). For over three decades it served as the largest oil and natural gas supplier to Europe but with near severing of ties following sanctions, Russia embraced China and subsequently outsourced its energy supplies to Beijing. Since Russia was willing to accept Yuan, China willingly went ahead with energy deal providing market for nearly 15% of Russia’s output. Russia had to face a stiff competition from its Central Asian counterparts which were vying to supply oil to China. Already Kazakasthan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been supplying oil to different provinces of China through oil pipes. These nations besides providing the needed raw materials, hydrocarbons also serve as potential market for Chinese goods. In fact landlocked central Asian countries are welcoming the gargantuan Silk Road economic belt that can provide access to free economic zones and economic clusters and further connect these nations to fast west and South Asia. The grinding economic sanctions on Russia took a toll on the economic foreign policy project investment initiative Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) led by it. Chinese investment through the Silk Road fund is expected to revitalise the EEU. In a significant move both nations have agreed to establish a rating agency on that will assess the countries and their investments based on the same criterion and tools used by the earlier agencies like the Flitch and Moodys (9).

For Russia friendship with China would not only help in recuperating the ailing economy but also caters to its ambitions of gaining geopolitical anchorage. In 2011 when Russia registered significant growth rate, it emerged as a hotbed for lucrative investments and substantially drew attention of the enterprising Chinese investors. This laid ground for a protracted and long term engagement with China. In the series of new parleys of joint investment both countries are expected to announce a Russia-China investment fund aimed at increasing mutual interdependence in three sectors-infrastructure, real estate and minerals. Russia is more particular about investment in infrastructure development as it is scheduled to host FIFA World Cup 2018 and energy infrastructure to supply oil to its eastern markets.

China in the mean while is trying to procure the Surface to Air Missile, SAM-400 (with 400km strike range) and Su-35’s from Russia. Though the top Russian aids maintain that such deal wasn’t finalised, serious negotiations are on (10).This advanced military equipment will certainly strengthen China’s in a bargain over disputed islands in the region. Both nations have promised to double the bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2020. The renewed alliance between these nations might emerge as a viable alternative in the multi polar world. While others believe that the alliance might crumble under burden of historical animosities, suspicion, and competition over shared neighbourhood. But US’s Asia pivot policy might compel them to work together against a common threat.

Japan and the US for time being are not wary of the new alliance but are betting that the mutual distrust and suspicions balance the assertiveness of China. According to US Scholar Micheal Auslin, Japan and Washington may consider Putin in the regional security dialogues and try to wean away Russia from China through trade initiatives and joint military exercises (11). Another predicted scenario is if Chinese economy slumps and if it wants to gain more access into Siberia, Putin might re-enact its power display in the Far East as the Siberians too loathe Chinese presence. But in any case the alliance is set to propel a new power game with Asia as the pivot.

1. http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/russia-and-china-set-to-counter-usled-asia-pivot-in-the-pacific/article7485758.ece
2. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-05-05/ruble-plunge-hitting-russians-speeds-slide-to-recession
3. http://www.sectsco.org/EN123/
4. http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB49/
5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
6. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/06/russia-china-energy-alliance-ge-201461765254926525.html
7. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-11-10/russia-china-add-to-400-billion-gas-deal-with-accord
8. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/07/sino-russian-alliance-rival-europe-150719085829977.html
9. http://www.rt.com/business/163340-china-russia-rating-agency/
10. http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140531/DEFREG/305310028/Russian-Fighters-China-Still-Hold
11. https://www.aei.org/publication/russia-and-china-fuel-asias-other-great-game/