Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two day visit scheduled for
June 6th to Bangladesh will be an affirmative move to make better
forays towards fostering Indo-Bangladesh bilateral relationships. The tour made
a propitious beginning with mercurial Mamatha Benarjee, who refused to be on
board during Man Mohan Singh’s visit to Dhaka in 2011 has consented to be part
of Modi’s entourage. With the West Bengal Chief Minister who earlier scuttled
the conclusion of Teesta Water agreement accompanying Modi, the visit might
turn into a land mark moment. Modi is travelling to Dhaka with the historical
Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) that fully delineates India-Bangladesh boundary
and whose ratification was pending since 1974. Meanwhile with Indo-Pakistan
relations in a state of frozen turbulence Modi’s trip to Dhaka is going to be
major game-changer as leaders of both countries are inclined to strengthen
bilateral ties. Modi’s outreach programme till now has been a mix of hard power
(promoting India’s strategic and economic interests) and Soft power (cultural
ties and people to people contacts). The forthcoming visit to Bangladesh will
become significant as Modi might exercise copious amounts of both these powers.
Teesta Waters
Besides the LBA, International tribunal with regard to the
India-Bangladesh Sea boundary agreement ruled in favour of Bangladesh wherein
it is the major beneficiary. India without any protest accepted the decision.
Thus India displayed its commitment in resolving boundary and territorial
issues. Other crucial issues on cards between the countries is the river water
management especially Teesta and Mahananda waters. About 54 rivers flow from
India to Bangladesh and proper management of these river waters can eventually
lead to flood management. Indeed both nations have dubious distinction of being
affected by floods every year. A joint river commission for water management
was set in 1972 but due to the tensions between both the nations dispute over sharing
of Teesta waters remained unresolved. Till date a comprehensive river pact has
been signed by India and Bangladesh in the 1996 bilateral treaty wherein a
30-year water sharing agreement was established for River Ganges. While all the
necessary groundwork was readied during visit of Man Mohan Singh in 2011 for
the conclusion of Teesta waters, Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee refused to
approve the treaty for the fear of losing huge volumes of water to lower riparian.
Teesta River has its origins in the Teesta Glacier in Sikkim and flows through
northern part of west Bengal before and enters Bangladesh. It irrigates about
45km stretch of lands before merging into Brahmaputra River. By ratifying the
LBA, Modi already scored Brownie points and if he succeeds in Teesta water
issue too Modi will sweep Bangladesh off its feet. Equitable distribution of
Teesta waters have been an emotive issue.
Motor Vehicle Agreement
(MVA)
In a major move government is determined to enhance
sub-regional cooperation with its eastern and north eastern neighbours of the
SAARC region in spite of Pakistan’s intransigence. To boost up the sub-regional
connectivity Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal on the BBIN platform are trying to pull off a major project to improve
road connectivity between these nations. The deal is going to be signed on June
15th. The new platform gained momentum after Pakistan torpedoed all
previous attempts by these nations to have a SAARC Motor Vehicles Pact and
SAARC Railway Agreement during the Kathmandu session of the SAARC summit. This
move would not only have a huge impact on the connectivity and transit in this
region but also persuade elite nations not to play a Pakistan or China card
against India. Sealing the Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA) will help Bangladesh
to emerge as South Asia’s gateway to the South East Asia as vehicles from all
four countries will be able to freely move across different territories. As a
part of Look East Policy, India can rope in Myanmar and Vietnam into this
sub-regional cooperation.
India too can greatly benefit from such a project as access
to the North East States would be improved. As one newspaper aptly mentioned
that while the distance between Agartala and Kolkata is 1650 km, it would be
only 350km via Bangladesh. Thus this would greatly rejuvenate the economy of
the North East as goods can be transported to Chittagong port in Bangladesh
from there it can be transited to several parts of India or South East Asia.
Till mid-1960’s India and Bangladesh were connected through robust network of
roads and rail. But after Indo-Pak war of 1965 all the routes were snapped.
Modi during his visit is expected to make an announcement of 2 billion USD as a
soft loan to Bangladesh for building infrastructure like roads, ports and power
projects. This is in addition to the 1 billion USD already extended to
Bangladesh. This sub-regional infrastructure development would not only promote
trade and commerce but strengthen people to people interactions and tourism as
well. While this in no way can be compared to the ambitious Silk Road Economic
Belt unleashed by China, this can definitely lay a strong foundation for
fostering friendly ties with immediate neighbours.
Tetulia Corridor
In a significant move India is contemplating on opening the
Tetulia Corridor and in widening of Chicken Neck Corridor. Tetulia Corridor is
a strip of 6 km land that will connect Chopra and Mayanaguri on India side
through Bangladesh. This can shorten the distance for North Eastern States
bound traffic by 84 km. While India has already allotted Tinbigha Corridor to
Dhaka for Bangladesh to Bangladesh connect Tetulia Corridor has to get approval
of Bangladesh. Similarly Chicken Neck or Siliguri Corridor a 40 km wide region
in India located in West Bengal connects India to its North Eastern States. While
Nepal and Bangladesh lie on either of corridor, Bhutan is towards its North.
Since it abounds three countries, it is highly sensitive region. This strip is
heavily patrolled by Assam Rifles, Border Security Force and the Indian Army.
In 2002, BBIN countries studied the proposal of making this region Free Trade
Zone enabling all four countries to connect with each other without any
restrictions.
Military Diplomacy
Another area of focus should be military diplomacy wherein
both nations can engage in joint counter-terrorism, anti-piracy tasks, and
search & rescue missions. As a part of this initiative, Cabinet ahead of
Modi’s visit has approved signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
between both countries on prevention of human trafficking especially of women,
children: their rescue, rehabilitation, repatriation and reintegration of the
victims. India should pitch in to help Bangladesh in modernizing its military
hardware and communication. Any delay in extending help or stuttering can turn
it towards China which is more than willing. Similarly another area of concern
for both countries is impending threat of terrorism. Although there is great
cooperation between both the nations regarding this issue, foot prints of ISIS are
discovered in both nations had to be clamped down with iron hand. Interestingly
both Modi and Sheikh Hasina are good leaders and in spite of internal
challenges they triumphantly curtailed terrorist activities in their
territories. But slowly Bangladesh seems to veering towards Islamists. The
recent insensitive killings of secular bloggers hold a testimony to the same.
If the leadership fails to crack a whip on this growing extremism it might soon
snow-ball into terrorism.
In the recent past China has built close ties with Bangladesh
as a part of its South Asian diplomacy and this has been a major issue of
concern for India. According to Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute (SIPRI) nearly 82% of Bangladesh arms purchase is from China. China
is extending all possible assistance and support in building ports for
Bangladesh and twice last year it docked its submarine in Chittagong port. Indian
military analysts opine that China in order to have its sway over the Indian
Ocean Region needs an ideal place in Bay of Bengal to dock its warships and
submarines. No other country can be more suited than Bangladesh. For India besides
acting as a bulwark against terrorism Bangladesh is a strategically important
partner. Modi cognizant of the nefarious influence of the South East Asian Giant
is using all powers at his disposal to cement relations with Bangladesh to
erode the influence of China.
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