Germany went to polls on Sep 22nd to elect 630
members for the 18th Bundestag. Election results have pronounced a
clear victory for the Chancellor Angela Merkel of Christian Democratic Union
(CDU) for the third time in a row. But the results are uncertain as she falls
short of full majority by just 5 seats and hence she has to forge an alliance
to form a coalition government. Its previous coalition partner, the
pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) had a disastrous performance as it
could garner mere 4.8% of votes. For the first time in FDP party history, it is
rooted out of the Parliament.
CDU has been gifted with a stupendous majority of 42%, up by
7% from the last elections in 2009 along with its sister party Christian Social
Union (CSU). This is the highest
majority attained by any party in the past five decades. The Germans have
passed a verdict crediting her for deft handling of the economy in the face of
brewing economic crisis in the Mediterranean and South European Countries. It
now seems that she has to form a coalition with its opposition, the Centre
–left, Social Democratic Party (SDP) as she narrowly missed the absolute
majority. Negotiations might continue for months as she will be compelled to
accept some of the leftist propositions like minimum wages and higher tax cuts
for the super-rich. She might even be forced to change her stance with regard
to the bailing out Greece, award stimulus packages to Portugal, Spain and
Greece and might go slow on austerity drive.
Angela Merkel is perhaps the most influential person in
Germany post world war-II. She has successfully brought down the unemployment
rates from 12.1% 2005 when she was first elected to 5.3% now. Moreover, she is also
going to create a history by overtaking Margret Thatcher’s record of the
longest serving women. The polls are an indication of the conservative nature
of Germans who revel in the status of a powerful economy and their eagerness to
share the responsibilities.
Germany earlier adopted an approach wherein China was the
main focal point of interest and had a long standing bilateral and trade
relations with China. But owing to strained relations with China following the
Chancellor’s meeting with Tibetan leader Dalai Lama, Germany started realising
a greater need to foster ties with other developing countries in Asia.
Economic and Cultural relations between India and Germany are
dated back to 16th century. India was the first nation to end Second
World War with Germany. India has recognised the Federal Republic of Germany as
a sovereign country way back in 1951 and both nations had strong commercial,
cultural and strategic cooperation. India is the fifth largest business partner
of Germany after China, Japan and South Korea, Singapore in Asia. India is
ranked 28th among the trade partners of Germany accounting for 0.7%
of total trade. Germany renewed its
trade agreements with India, after India’s consistent growth record during the
past decade. It has ventured into Indian markets to tap the unexplored avenues and
has become the eighth largest investor in India with inflows of USD 5.05
billion. Germany is also India’s second largest technology partner. The largest co-operation is in the field of
machinery, heavy vehicles, chemicals, technical consultancy services, computers
and electronic appliances. Large automobile giants (BMW, Daimler, AG, Audi,
Volkswagen and Porsche) have established their assembly units/ manufacturing
units in India. Indian investments in Information Technology, Energy and Pharmaceuticals
amount to USD 4 billion in Germany. Bilateral trade has improved consistently
from USD 15 billion in 2007 to USD 24.2 billion in 2011.
Germany is one of the most highly developed nations. Together
with China, it is the third largest economy in the World after US and Japan. It
exports account to more than a trillion euro which is three times its national
income. India and Germany have reached agreements on issues like environment
protection and conservation of natural resources, energy and sustainable
economic development. Both of them are
now desperately attempting to obtain a permanent seat in the Security
Council. Following the signing of
defence agreements Indian Navy and German Navy has conducted exercises
together. Further Germany helped India to obtain a waiver from Nuclear
Supplier’s Group (NSG) to procure radioactive material for non nuclear
purposes. Germany has extended its cooperation to combat terrorism. India has
launched seven satellites into polar orbits for Germany. There are certain
issues of disagreement as well which include India’s stand on carbon emissions,
UN reforms and civil nuclear cooperation.
Several MoU’s have been signed between India and Germany in
the fields of Science &Technology, bilateral research cooperation in
biotechnology, environment, material sciences and vocational training. Germany
is India’s most important research partner after US with more than 1000 post
graduate community constitute the largest student group in Germany after
Chinese. There are significant numbers of collaborations between the elite
Indian and German institutes. Several exchange programs for students and young
scientists have been vogue and new programs are initiated to foster greater
cooperation in science and technology.
Unlike India, Germany has significant challenges to long–term
sustained growth. Further its aging population and declining net immigration is
increasing pressure on the social welfare system. It spends roughly 2.5% of GDP
on Research and Development (R&D) and plans to increase it to 3%. Thus
there is lot of scope for highly qualified technical and scientific personnel
from developing countries like India, China and Brazil to work in coordinate
with the research institutes in Germany. Germany has started the ambitious
scientific policy with international appeal to connect with centres of
excellence thus building networks and strategic partnerships with foreign
institutions. Its existing 41million work force is estimated to decline owing
to the demographic changes. There will shortage of 6 million skilled workers.
Realising the implications of shortage of skilled work force, Qualified
Professionals Initiative project was initiated. The program encourages the
professionals from abroad to come to Germany and work. They have eased
immigration rules and providing valuable advice for successful integration.
Indian workers especially qualified professionals can have safe havens and reap
the benefit of getting assimilated into the work stream highly developed
country. Remittances can thus flow back to the country. Above all, currently
India along with Germany constitutes the G4 nations that include Brazil and
Japan, mutually promoting each other’s bid for a permanent seat in the UN
Security Council.
Other than Israel, India is the only non-European country
with which Germany has closer strategic and business relationship. The year
2011 was called year of Germany in India titled “Germany and India: Infinite
opportunities” marking the completion of 60 years of relationship with Federal
Republic of Germany (1951). Parallel programme was conducted in Germany with
the motto of “Days of India in Germany: Connecting Cultures” in 2012-13
featuring events on Indian culture in various cities of Germany. The cultural
sojourn of Germany in India is effectively synchronized by the six Max-Mueller
Institutes which conduct German classes for students. Similarly Tagore Bhavan
acts as Indian Culture Centre in Germany.
Germany is the main pillar of the European Union and the
decisions made by the Chancellor would be of utmost importance not only to
Europe but to the vast majority of countries whose economies are dependent on
the EU member countries. Tactical decisions on Energy Policy, environment
policy, financial policies of the block are influenced by the commitment of the
Chancellor’s decision. Hence these elections are closely watched by the World.
Particularly some of her commitments to end the use of nuclear power have a
wider implication on the oil and gas imports and exports.
Following election results, German Envoy Michael Steiner
reiterated that German government is going to be “pro-Europe, non-nationalistic
and pro-Indian” and hinted about possible increase in trade volume. Germany is
the economic powerhouse and anchor of Europe. Undoubtedly, nothing significant
can ever happen without the agreement of Angela Merkel. She is the towering
politician in Europe with strong commitment to a single currency and sustainable European Union. The grand vision
she has for the Europe will translate in the form of strategic partnerships Germany will promote
with major partners like India in near future.
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