Nepal Needles India by publishing new political map

Playing straight from the typical Chinese communist party playbook, Nepal has included three Indian-controlled territories in its map. Nepal’s act of releasing a new map on Wednesday with Nepal emblem depicting Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura a total of 335 sq km of land, administered by the Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand has escalated tensions between the two countries. This unilateral change in the status quo of the region is bound to take a toll on the tethering bilateral ties which have descended to a new low. Nepal’s brinkmanship which threatens to drive a wedge by irrevocably damaging the historical cultural, religious, linguistic ties might have longstanding implications besides the immediate and palpable strategic ramifications.

Within months into power, Nepal Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli created ripples for his authoritarian quirks. Having garnered majority on anti-Indian campaign rhetoric, Oli consistently bolstered ties with China. Centralising powers, he brought several agencies including the investigation agencies, social welfare council (that regulates NGOs), revenue investigation and money laundering agencies (investigating financial scandals) under his control. He eroded judicial independence, censored news agencies and selectively targeted dissenters ¹. Oli’s high-handed policies drew ire of political opponents. By April, criticism over poor handling of Corona crisis, infighting between the factions headed by Oli and Prachanda became more intense. To avert the political crisis, Oli brought out two ordinances- seeking amendments to the existing Political Parties act and Constitutional Council. As per the new ordinance, a split vote can obtain 40% support from either the central committee or the Parliamentary party to split as opposed to mandatory 40% support from both Central committee and Parliamentary party ².

Oli rushed these ordinances to split the Samajwadi Party, but instead of splitting, the party merged with Rashtriya Janata party of Nepal. Oli’s decision drew severe political criticism, protests erupted and within four days, he was forced to withdraw the Ordinances ³.  With intra-party fighting showing no signs of abatement, Chinese ambassador to Nepal, Hon Yanqi intervened. She held meetings with different leaders including the President and Prime Minister Oli. Yanqi held two meetings with Oli in a week. Around the same time, extending support to Nepal in its fight against Corona, President Xi held meeting with Nepali President Bidhya Bhandari. The Prachanda faction was in talks with Song Tao, head of International Liasion Department of the Communist Party of China to discuss the latest political developments among other things ⁴. China extensively engaged with Nepali political hierarchy in the intervening week of April and May.

On May 2^nd, while Chinese ambassador held parleys with Nepali leaders, CGTN (Chinese Global Television Network) made an unsuccessful bid to lay claims over the Mt. Everest christening it as Mount Qomolangma, located in the China’s Tibetan Autonomous Region on twitter. Netizens trolled CGTN for its ludicrous claims, following intense backlash, the tweet was pulled down. China’s nascent bid to consolidate claims over Mt. Everest and its controversial move to mount 5G network at 8000mt to snoop over India, Bangladesh, Myanmar is clearly an attempt to infiltrate into the sub-continent.

Capitalising on the simmering anti-India sentiment, China started using Himalayan country as a pawn in its geopolitical game play. Despite China’s proclamations of non-interference in affairs of foreign countries, Beijing’s implacable role in the ouster of Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe, in 2017 has alerted World of its backchannel dealings and political collusions. Given Nepal political dispensation’s formidable links with the Chinese Communist Party for the past decade, a similar scenario can’t be ruled out.

Post 2015 blockade, Indo-Nepalese ties have taken a massive hit. Even Prime Minister Modi’s cultural outreach failed to mollify the Nepalese. The publication of the restructured India’s political map in November, 2019 with Kalapani as a part of Indian state of Uttarakhand has triggered a new storm and opened fresh debates about its inclusion. Kalapani has been at the heart of Indo-Nepalese border dispute. While foreign secretary talks were planned to resolve the dispute in the wake of severe protests from Nepal, the issue was pushed to a backburner due to Corona pandemic.

Inauguration of 80-km road to Lipulekh pass, the trijunction of India, Nepal and Tibet on May 8^th by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has resurrected the border dispute. This road will offer an alternate route to reach Manasarovar, the other being the Natha La pass in Sikkim. Having realised the need for developing extensive infrastructure leading to trijunctions along the LAC (Line of Actual Control), India expedited projects in the region. Development of Lipulekh road has been in public domain since 2008 but Nepal raised fresh objections now. Terming this as “unilateral” act, Nepal foreign ministry summoned Indian Ambassador and asked India to “refrain from carrying out any activity inside the territory of Nepal”.

Borders of India and Nepal are delineated as per the Treaty of Sugauli, 1816. Accordingly, the area west of the river Kali or the Mahakali or Sarada falls in the Indian territory while the area to the East of river belongs to Nepal. But the dispute became murkier with nations having a conflicting opinion about the origin of the river Kali. Nepal claims that river originates from a stream at Limpiyadhura, north-west of Lipulekh. Thus, all the three regions, Kalapani, Limpiyadhura and Lipulekh fall to the east of the river part of Darchula district of Nepal. While India claims that Kali originates somewhere downstream of the pass. India has the administrative and revenue records showing Kalapani as part of Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand. Both countries have set up Boundary Technical groups which successfully resolved several areas except Kalapani and Susta. Though leaders of both sides have repeatedly pledged to demarcate the region properly but it hasn’t happened ⁵.

During the Indo-Sino 1962 war, India has set up a military post at Kalapani perched at an altitude of 20,000ft offering a great strategic advantage. Since then India has been operating from the region while Nepal calls it an encroachment. Matters became worse after India and China agreed to set up trading post at Lipulekh in 2016 without taking Nepal onboard. While Nepal terms Lipulekh as trijunction, after the joint statement in 2016, China never raised the issue. Pertinent to say, it believes that the region is a bilateral issue. But then at the height of the Doklam crisis, Chinese mouth piece, The Global Times threatened that India might be helpless if PLA would walk in, “through Kalapani or into Kashmir, through PoK”, both trijunctions like Doklam. Needless to say, these regions are strategically very important to India’s security ⁶.

Resolving the outstanding border disputes can not only enhance trust but can favourably usher the regions into a pragmatic cooperation. But Prime Minister Oli battling an intra-party infighting, picked up perfect occasion to brew a storm in the region at a time when the border skirmishes along LAC have escalated.

Through bombastic claims aimed at stirring ultra-nationalistic fervour, Oli whipped up anti-Indian sentiments creating unwarranted tensions. The tearing hurry in passing a special resolution in Parliament to reclaim three regions and cabinet decision to bring about a new map is not lost on the strategic analysts who are quick to point at similar act of the Dragon. Defending its unabated aggressive reclamation of the South China Sea (SCS) China hinged its legal claims to the region by way of historical nine-dash demarcation. While there is no historicity to the nine-dash line, to buttress China’s maritime treasures, the nationalist government in 1947 employed Yang Huairen, a Chinese geographer to make 11-dash line and 286 bits of rock and turf on Chinese map to demarcate Chinese waters in the SCS. Indeed, the British educated Yang painstakingly used the maps prepared by the British explorers to map the territorial features in the SCS. In 1949, Kuomintang which suffered defeat at the hands of Communist party, fled China for Taiwan.

The communist party used the map. In 1952, the map lost two dashes after Mao ceded claims of Gulf of Tonkin, to Vietnam to bring it into Communist fold. Research shows that till 2012, the phrase nine-dash line has been used only six times ⁷. When Philippines pulled China to ICJ for laying claims over the Scarborough Shoal, ICJ quashed China’s historic claims. Though China has rejected the verdict, China’s shallow claims are now deemed fake and can’t stand the legal scrutiny. In the wake of inclusion of Kalapani by India, Nepal mulled the prospect of taking the issue to ICJ for settlement. The chorus for such proposal has grown louder after the release of its new map. Pertinent to say, while archives of treaties, map libraries, historical documents and articles by boundary experts would help in conflict resolution, artificial expansion of territory on a map will not be legally valid.

India peacefully resolved both maritime and land boundary disputes by exchanging conclaves peacefully. Oli’s unwarranted needling of India with inelegant references to India’s emblem “Satyameva Jayate” (truth alone triumphs) and mocking whether it is “Sinhaev Jayate” (lion prevails) and telling the lawmakers that Corona virus from India is more “lethal” than those from China or Italy⁸ is bound to create bad blood. As a part of bilateral cooperation ⁹ India sent 23 tonnes of medical supplies and Nepal has publicly expressed its gratitude.

But Oli’s brinkmanship to tide over his waning popularity, amid health emergency, at the height of escalations along the LAC hint at a plausible geopolitical collusion. Perhaps, Indian Army General MM Naravane may not be completely wrong in stating that “Nepal is protesting at behest of someone”.

Besides, Nepal’s complete silence and helplessness despite Huawei’s alleged hacking of over 200 Nepali websites and various land grab attempts including 36 hectares of land in four different districts as part of road expansion project, 6- hectares in Bhagdare river, 4- hectares in Karnali river, 6- hectares in Sanjen river, Bhurjung river and Jambukhola, 11- hectares in Sindhupal Chowk, 9 hectares in Sankhuwasabha. All these areas are now completely or merged into Tibet ¹⁰. While Nepal vociferously lashes out at India, it hardly raises a finger at China.

As a responsible regional power while is incumbent on India to constitute a mechanism to amicably resolve the dispute, Nepal must stop playing the “small country syndrome” for eternity seeking an identity at every turn of event and calling it tyranny of the weak. Nepal has been playing India against China since 1950s conveniently trivialising issues. It is time, Nepali leaders stop raking border issues with are integral for sovereignty and territorial integrity for its petty political gains.

 

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Dance of death in a maternity ward

The mind-numbing pictures of a maternity ward filled with smoke, glass shards, bullet ridden bodies minutes of three armed terrorists dressed as security personnel open fire and the sight of the Afghan forces shifting infants in blood stained blankets will bleed any heart. Of all the places, a maternity ward is the most unlikely place for any kind of attack. The images of the Kabul Hospital will continue to torment any human being.

This unspeakable brutality will shake faith in humanity. Mothers who have lived through this gory can never ever dream of having a sound sleep till to the last breath. Savagery unleashed by the radicalised extremists and the despicable audacity displayed in attacking hapless, innocent mothers who have just brought new lives on to his planet would forever remind people of what these people stand for.

This unparalleled barbarity, which breached every boundary of decency should shake the collective conscious of the World, (if they still have any) and prompt them to outrightly reject the ideology that drove the perps onto a path of doom and death. But the gory gun firing which claimed lives of two infants, 20 nursing mothers and women in labour had hardly evoked any outrage. The Western media wilfully normalised this incident by branding the terrorists as gunmen and terrorism as insurgency and moved on.

Even thousands of innocent people across the World are killed by terrorists masquerading as armed gunmen, international leaders and some countries continue to defend them. While, countries which subscribe to terror continue to hoodwink the world with fatalistic theories of good and bad terrorism to justify these acts; others try to defend these motherships of terror for their geopolitical strategic interests.

The appalling apathy of countries and leaders and their refusal to call a spade a spade is unfortunately the new reality of the contemporary World. With strategic interests outweighing the costs of human lives, nations continued to abet terror. Emboldened by the collective inaction, sponsors of terror began to use them as a strategic asset to wreak havoc and settle scores.

Though the World is cognizant of the baneful ideology which is a scourge on the humanity, no nation has ever tried to nip it. They allowed indoctrination of unsuspicious youth who eventually becomes strategic assets of the state in modern day asymmetric warfare.  As per 2019 Global Terrorism Index, 103 countries recorded at least one terror incident in 2018 and 71 countries suffered at least one fatality.

Despite the horrific killings by terror entities, nations are still at loggerheads to arrive at a common definition of terrorism. While the nations continue to debate and defend, imputing terrorism to unemployment, poverty and discriminations, liberal media has been effectively undermining this scourge.

Taking a hint from the media, countries are relaunching terror outfits bearing acceptable, urbane terms like resistance and peace. Under the guise of fancy banners with an outward façade of separatism, insurgency as their projected goal, mothership of terror is misleading the World. While the pattern of mainstreaming of terror is being steadily tested and consciously unleashed, several terror financing watch dog agencies are failing to wakeup to this reality.

The Kabul hospital run by Doctors Without Borders is slowly coming to terms with gruesome murder and several volunteer mothers nursing the motherless infants. Even as distressing images and the shrill hunger cries of the infants would continue to haunt us, analysts, media and leaders are busy discussing the fallout of the ill-conceived Doha peace deal. In 2014, seven terrorists entered a school in Peshawar and opened fire on Army Public school children killing 132 students. Exacting retribution Army immediately launched an indiscriminate counter operation to eliminate terrorists. After a brief lull, the terrorists sprang back and it has been business as usual. Nothing much has changed. This incident indeed, has eerie similarities to the 2004 Beslan school hostage crisis in North Ossetia region of Russian Federation.

Episodic recurrence of these heinous attacks failed to spur a collective global movement against terrorism. It failed to force countries to deny safe havens and sanctuaries to terror outfits. The sale, brutal abuse of young women, rampant sex trade, kidnappings, chilling beheadings, nothing seems to have ever touched the conscious of this modern world. With every passing day the barbarity of terrorists is plumbing new lows. But still nations continue to abet, patronise terror and generously fund the ideological fountain heads that are manufacturing these inhuman killing machines.

While the bereaved families continue to wail and infants continue to cry through the night…the deaf world has resigned itself into inaction!!! If even the blood drenched tiny blankets of just born babies fail to impel nations to extricate roots of terror and its sponsors nothing else can!!!

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China is stoking tensions to intimidate India

Chinese scholar, Zhang Xuezhong, was picked up for investigation on May 10^th and returned after 24 hours. Zhang, a law professor, who advocated constitutional reforms, was terminated from university for his activism in 2013. Last year he was stripped of his lawyer licence for backing political reforms. China has always treated critics with contempt. Zhang recently published an open letter criticizing poor governance and mishandling of Corona pandemic met with similar fate normally meted to dissidents in China. Most of the dissidents disappear indefinitely and reappear only when they pledge to remain silent¹. Zhang has been the latest victim of Chinese authoritarianism. The fatal end met by Dr. Li Wenliang for raising alarm over the infectious spread of Chinese Corona Virus (CCV) during the initial days outbreak in December is a stark reminder of Chinese government’s brutal oppression. Coercion and intimidation have to integral to Chinese style of functioning. Be it individuals or nations, China brooks no criticism and opposition.

Taiwan, the small island home to 24 million, considered a renegade province of China enjoyed the perks of subservience from 2009 to 2016 when a pro-China regime towed China’s line. During the said period, Taiwan participated in the WHO’s World Health Assembly (WHA), global health meeting as an observer state. After a pro-independent regime headed by President Tsai stormed into power, 2017, Taiwan was refused an invitation at the behest of China. While nations are grappling to control CCV, located over 120 miles from mainland China, Taiwan’s meticulous numbers of 440 infections, 372 recovered cases and 7 deaths impressed the World.

While China is facing intense global backlash for its incriminating role in covering up the CCV spread in the initial stages, Taiwan reported of the human to human infection, (ignored by WHO) and displayed a rare competency in containing the virus spread. Even as China’s opacity and belligerence riled nations, Taiwan’s model to curb the virus and its friendly overtures to nations seeking out help has won the praise of global pundits.  Taiwan’s openness and democratic functioning offered a unique template for democratic nations. Its spectacular success, has undercut the Chinese propaganda trumpeting the supremacy of autocratic governance. Taiwan’s offer of help and generous donation of superior quality masks to Canada and other European countries has instantly bolstered its global reputation. Taiwan’s burgeoning global recognition made China jittery.

Countries and especially the US which is irrevocably miffed by China is now marshalling its diplomatic heft to rally support for Taiwan’s inclusion in the upcoming truncated, virtual WHA scheduled for May 18^th. Reportedly, the US House Foreign Affairs Committee wrote to leaders of 60 countries to reject China’s exclusion of Taiwan ². In the wake of the Corona pandemic, the chorus for inclusion of Taiwan grew louder. The Middle Kingdom insistent on the hackneyed refrain of “One China Policy” is launching scathing attacks on countries batting for extension of invitation to Taiwan as a valuable addition in the global combat against CCV.

Incontrovertible reports of WHO’s complicity in the proliferation of CCV and its concomitant spread across the globe will be one of the talking points at WHA. CCV pandemic sounded a death knell to the global economy. To safeguard nations from future health exigences and prevent its recurrence, US along with Australia, New Zealand and others are calling for an international investigation. China is defiantly opposing any investigation and by consequence any accountability.

India among other countries is batting for transparency. While Indian government has been silent on Taiwan’s inclusion, Indian media recently has ceded space to Taiwan. The Times of India, carried an interview of Taiwan’s foreign minister and The Hindu subsequently published an opinion piece by Taiwan Health Minister advocating Taiwan’s inclusion in WHA. Losing no time, Indian Counsellor Ji Rhong delivered a homily to Indian media agencies.

Besides, India is all set to chair the executive board of WHO comprising of 34 members for a period of three years on May 22^nd. South East Asia group has unanimously proposed India’s name to the position. India will also be member of administrative committee and program budget replacing Indonesia³. WHO has been one of the premier UN organisations, where China wielded absolute control. China backed the election of Tedros, the first non-medical candidate for the director-general position. His term is going to expire by 2021. As a chairperson of executive board, India can have a check on the free run of China at the WHO.

Insulating itself from the opportunistic and predatory economic diplomacy of China, India amended its Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy. By imposing a blanket ban on investments by the countries that share border with India, New Delhi effectively sealed China’s free march of taking over Indian companies badly hit corona pandemic ⁴. India redoubled its efforts to lure companies exiting China by developing a land pool double the size of Luxembourg. India’s economic boom will undercut the China’s monopolistic hold over Asian continent. Aside, abetting the asymmetric, proxy warfare unleashed by Pakistan, infamous for capitalizing on a crisis.  Furthering military intelligence sharing, Pakistan Army officer from ISI has been posted in mid-March as a liaison officer with the Directorate of Chinese Military Intelligence. ISI is known to have treasure trove of information regarding Indian defence forces and China is using its vassal state to China is contemplating two front battle against India ⁹.

The showdown in Sikkim along the 3,448 km LAC on May 10^th and incursions along the Pangong Tso lake, the battle ground during the 1962 Indo-China war on May 5^th is a part of larger exercise to intimidate India. Episodic standoffs and incursions have been a regular affair and always been part of sending a message to India. Sometimes, they have a pattern to it, like the three-day long PLA incursions that coincided with President Xi’s 2014 visit to India. The site of latest confrontation, Naku La pass located at an altitude of 16,000ft witnessed hand to hand combat between the Indian and Chinese troops leaving 11 personnel injured. Both troops rushed reinforcements following the confrontations. On May 12^th a Chinese helicopter was spotted along the LAC. In response, India immediately scrambled fighter jets. Invoking the mutually established local protocols while troops have disengaged, it is no secret that China continues to encroach areas in Ladakh region.

Downplaying the events Chinese Foreign Ministry Zhoa Lijan stated, “Chinese troops have always been upholding peace and tranquillity along our border areas. China and India stay in close communication and coordination concerning our border areas within existing channels”. Indian defence spokesperson, issued a statement, “temporary and short duration face-offs between the border guarding troops do occur as boundaries are not resolved”⁸. The latest showdown coming after 2017 Dolam standoff is indicative of Chinese aggressive posturing to brow beat India.

With Communist party at helm of affairs, China intensified engagement with Nepal. Exploiting fault-lines in the Indo-Nepalese ties, China is stoking anti-India sentiments in the Himalayan nation. In the past, Nepal has been highly critical of India alleging interference in the internal affairs of the country. Amid brewing intra-party rift in Nepal, Chinese ambassador Hou Yanqui recently held meetings with senior communist party leaders to abate domestic tensions ¹¹. Nepal summoned Indian envoy protesting the inauguration of 80-km road from Dharchula in Uttarakhand to Lipulekh build along the pre-existing road used by Kailash Mansarovar pilgrims. Nepal’s protests amid China’s growing influence over its political dispensation has caused consternation in India. India has peacefully settled all outstanding border issues with neighbouring countries. But still Nepal has been obstinate¹⁰.

Close on heels, on Monday, US secretary of state gave a call to evolve a consensus over the post Covid-19 world order. The video conference attended by Quad+3 (South Korea, Brazil and Israel) foreign ministers discussed about resilience of the supply chains, stressed on accountability and transparency in combating the pandemic, prevent future crises and reaffirming the significance of the rules based international order⁶. Being part of the group that is seeking accountability China is pressurizing India, Japan and Australia to back down.

India’s swift response and humane health diplomacy is viewed favourably. A gentle nudge to ascend the economic trajectory can greatly enhance its global standing sealing its stature as the counterweight to the Middle Kingdom. China disapproves any parity with India.

Coercion is name of the game for China. Beijing is employing intimidatory tactics to browbeat nations. Having embarked on the expeditionary aggressive posturing in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea, China has intensified incursions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). While countries are busy battling the Wuhan virus, China has established two administrative districts-Xisha (which covers Paracel Islands, claimed by Vietnam) and Nansha (which covers Spartly Islands, claimed by Philippines). Each district will have local government, Xisha district will have admin in Woody Island and Nansha district will administer from Fiery Cross Reef, an underground reef transformed into an artificial island through land reclamation⁵.

Beijing has also issued names to 25 reefs and 55 underwater entities to consolidate its control over SCS. On May 2^nd China Global Television Network (CGTN) claimed that Mt Everest is located in China’s Tibet autonomous region sparking a row. After a backlash from netizens, CTGN pulled out the tweet and said it is on the China-Nepal border. Similarly, two Chinese websites Tuotiao.com and Sohu.com claimed that Kyrgystan and Kazakhstan have been part of China and that Kazakhstan is eager to be part of China drawing the ire of the central Asian countries⁷. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is fleetingly triggering nationalist fervour launching aggressive muscle flexing operations to dissuade people from harping on the domestic failures in handling the pandemic.

Around the same time of Sikkim showdown, Japan lodged protests  after Chinese ships chased Japanese fishing vessels in the Japanese waters around the Senakaku islands. Similarly, pressurizing Australia to backdown on the calls for probe into origins of the pandemic, China has imposed 80% tariffs on Australian barley exports and imposed ban on beef exports from four processing plants in Queensland and New South Wales ¹³.

In response to the rising speculations of Taiwan’s participation, the legal officer of WHO informed that the “divergent views” from the members of the UN prevents the director of WHO can’t extend invitation to Taiwan. Exculpating itself from the controversies, towing China’s line, WHO clarified that it can’t invite Taiwan ¹².

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Pakistan’s multi-pronged anti-India attacks under the Corona cover

There has been a characteristic pattern to Pakistan’s insidious anti-India game plan since revocation of article 370. India successfully foiled Pakistan’s attempts to internationalise the issue. Determined to tarnish India’s global image, Islamabad perpetuated a fake narrative in the wake of CAA legislation and triggered a wave of anti-CAA protests, pan-India which eventually snowballed into Delhi riots. Investigation agencies later confirmed Pakistani links to the riots ¹. While the din of the riots subdued as the Corona infection began to overwhelm the world. Undeterred by the global health emergency, akin to its all-weather friend, Pakistan sensed an opportunity to ramp up multipronged attacks on India.

While the nations are pre-occupied with corona catastrophe, Pakistan intensified its operatives. The inking of the Afghan-Taliban peace deal and shoddy handling of Corona crisis by Prime Minister Khan have strengthened the grandstanding of Pakistan’s deep state. Asserting total control, Pakistani military adopted no holds barred approach towards India. Till March Kashmir Valley remained relatively insulated from Pakistan’s nefarious agenda in absence of internet connectivity. On March 5^th, India government restored broad band services and opened the flood gates of communication. Restrictions on social media were also lifted. This facilitated regrouping of the hibernating terror outfits and its over ground cadres. Ever since there has been a noticeable spurt in ceasefire violations.

Under pressure to comply with FATF (Financial Action Task Force) list to exit grey list, Pakistan evolved a master plan. To evade scrutiny of terror activities Pakistan rebranded its existing terror outfits and relaunched organisations with modern names. In August, Pakistan minted a new terror outfit “The Resistance Front or TRF” which made as a debut as twitter handle. Operating from Islamabad, TRF eulogised terrorists and tweeted abusive, provocative posts on Indian security forces. TRF claimed responsibility for a hand grenade attack in Srinagar in October, the first attack after scrapping of article 370. Initially TRF failed to catch the imagination of terror sympathisers. Its visibility and popularity soured after internet services were restored.

Relaunching terror outfits to escape FATF scrutiny

Following the arrest of six men on March 23^rd, Indian security officials chanced to know about TRF. Police later recovered huge cache of arms and ammunition from them ². The chest thumping exercise of TRF, near live updates of the Keran encounter which resulted in the death of five special forces personnel confirmed the association of TRF with pre-existing Pakistan-funded terror modules. TRF staked responsibility for the attacks. The infiltration route used by TRF cadres is regularly used by Laskhar-e-Toiba operatives. TRF is the new face of LeT. LeT and Hizbul Mujahideen are quite active in Kashmir. In the second week of April reports of a turf war between the TRF and Hizbul over defections of terrorists from one outfit to another surfaced³. But these spurious reports of Pakistani strategy to mislead Indian intelligentsia.  Days after alleged reports of differences between Pakistani based terror groups operating the Kashmir, TRF launched a new Telegram channel- “The Joint Resistance Force” reiterated a need for unity between scholars, stone pelters and terrorists and posted the images of LeT and Hizbul terrorists.  

Experts now confirm that TRF is an amalgamation of LeT, Hizbul, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Al Badr.  Borrowing from its strategy of promoting the extremism of Rohingya under the name of “resistance”, a word favoured by the Western agencies, ISI has relaunched LeT under the new avatar of TRF.  Since most of its terror organisations are now under the proscribed organisations list, to carry out the Jihad, Pakistan is now redeploying its strategic assets under the new banner. Also, Pakistan has now tasked Haqqani Network and JeM cadres to target Indian Embassy in Afghanistan ⁵. The new outfits bearing innocuous names as Resistance is also effort to delink terror outfits with religion and temper suspicion. Along with TRF, Pakistan launched The JK Pir Panjal Peace Forum masking its brutal terror agenda with intellectual aura. Deep state created new outfits to enhance synergy and interoperability between various groups operating in the valley.

Removal of terrorist names from Proscribed Persons List

In spite of the poor compliance record, with China at the helm of affairs, Pakistan escaped the horror of FATF black list. FATF expressed dissatisfaction in February after Pakistan addressed only 14 of the 27 points listed. The next evaluation is slated for June. With the threat of FATF Damocles sword looming over Pakistan, ISI began recalibrating its strategy.  Hard pressed for finances, to exit from the FATF grey list, Pakistan removed 4000 names of terrorists, including the masterminds of 2008 Mumbai attacks from the original list of 7600 in April. US-based Castellum.AI data which automates Pakistan’s Proscribed Persons List blew the lid over Imran Khan’s massive coverup exercise. When questioned, Pakistan’s Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) refused to offer any explanation ⁴.

Crackdown on dissidents

Making a mockery of the civilian administration headed by an inept Prime Minister Imran Khan, military asserted complete control over governance. With all the pillars of the state, under its belt, the deep state initiated massive clean-up operations. Pakistan’s Supreme Court acquitted four men including Ahmed Omar Syed Sheikh who beheaded, US journalist Daniel Pearl. Under the COVID cover, ISI began cracking down on dissidents. The list now includes-Baloch journalist Sajid Hussain in Sweden, Arif Wazir of Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) two Baloch student dissidents⁷ and two Baloch students in Kalat⁸. Marginalisation and discriminatory treatment of the Shias in the illegally occupied Gligit-Baltistan region became acute. Raising alarm, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) slammed government’s subjugation policy of GB⁹.  Military personnel even moved Covid positive cases to GB and Muzaffarabad, capital of PoK amid strong protests from the residents ¹⁰.

Spurt in Cross Border Attacks

Proxy warfare has Pakistan’s potent weapon against India. Undeterred by the shrinking economy, with the advent of summer, Pakistan ramped up cross border terror which is replete of cease fire violations and massive infiltrations. Notwithstanding the corona mayhem, Pakistan intensified attacks since April. On April 4^th in a deadliest hand to hand combat of stopping the infiltration of hardened terrorists, five personnel of special forces lost their lives. Five terrorists were eliminated in process ⁶. This incident was followed by series of attacks on security personnel and their abduction, who were released later. In all, Indian forces killed 28 terrorists in April.

Last week Pakistan’s Supreme Court approved an amendment to the Gilgit-Baltistan government order of 2018 to conduct elections. India issued a strong demarche questioning the locus standi of Pakistani judiciary over the illegally occupied territories. Culminating this development, Pakistani terror outfits escalated attacks. In a counter-terrorist operation that lasted 12 hours and resulted in the killing of two terrorists, India lost five security personnel at Handwara in Kupwara district ¹⁴. Loss of two highly decorated officers incensed the forces. Barely 24 hours of the attacks, 3 CRPF jawans were killed and seven critically injured in an ambush by terrorists at Qaziabad, Handwara belt ¹⁵.

India inflicted a fatal blow to Pakistan’s terror operations by eliminated the longest surviving Hizbul Mujahidin commander Riyaz Naikoo. His killing marked the complete annihilation of much aggrandised cadres of Hizbul. 

Since April there has been a sharp spike in terror attacks and significantly despite the Corona lockdown, funeral processions made a comeback. While there have been no reports of active recruiting, nearly 150 Pakistan trained terrorists have reportedly reached launch pads in PoK to infiltrate India. Deep state plans to use drones to carry out blasts using IED.

Peddling Islamophobia narrative

Aside the proxy war, Pakistan opened another front. Capitalising on the brewing public anger after the single source (Tablighi’s defiance of lockdown restrictions contributed for more than 30% Corona cases), Pakistan co-opted the disgruntled Indian Muslims. Recruiting select journalists and Indian Islamists Pakistan launched a global propaganda narrative. Felt let down by Arab World after the OIC dismissed the revocation of Art 370 as bilateral issue Pakistan created a rift between the Arab World and India and besmirch the reputation of a rising India.

Fuelling anti-India sentiment, trolls from Pakistan inundated the social media with provocative hashtags #IndiaisagainstMuslims, #Islamophobia_in_India. Impersonating as Arab royalty, Pakistani bots selectively scaled up Islamophobia tweets to drive a wedge between India and the Gulf. With the twitter propaganda reaching a crescendo, Ministry of External Affairs issued clarifications to allay misconceptions. Pakistan’s free run and twitter bluff was busted after Omani Royal issued a clarification about the fake twitter posts carried out in her name. Soon, Afghan intelligence agencies alerted India of Pakistan’s tactics and the façade of Pakistan’s twitter propaganda crumbled ¹¹. These sinister twitter handles targeted Indians working in the Arab and caused termination of jobs of India who questioned the repugnant attacks on Covid warriors by Tablighi. Lending credence to Pakistan’s venomous propaganda, Yemen’s Al-Qaeda in Arab Peninsula (AQAP) called on Indian Muslims to unite and wage jihad against India ¹³.

Post-Balakot strikes, Pakistan hackers defaced several Indian government websites. Having tasted some success Pakistan is now planning to unleash a cyberwarfare. Pakistan-based groups are now reportedly purchasing hundreds of domains with .in suffix to spread fake news¹². Notwithstanding a sinking economy, ISI is splurging money to buy Indian domains to create unrest in India.

Kashmir has been Pakistan’s jugular. With the revocation of Article 370, India indisputably asserted its sovereign rights over the entire region. Having diplomatically failed to pressurise India, the centrality of Kashmir in Pakistan’s foreign policy has been jeopardised. Civilian government, Pakistani military and terror groups are making every effort to stoke tensions in the region and internationalise the issue. Kashmir is vital to Pakistan’s iron brotherhood and inextricably linked to the strategic interests of both countries. Geopolitical implications of the region have increased manifold with China eyeing to gain access to the Western Indian Ocean region through Kashmir. Kashmir is integral to China’s ambitious pursuits of expanding its maritime presence in the Indian Ocean Region and CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). An unresolved Kashmir issue is in the best of interests of both countries. Hence both of them are invariably keeping the Kashmir pot boiling.

Besides, Corona pandemic rode roughshod over Chinese economy and credibility. Beijing is facing severe backlash from countries. Major companies are planning to exit China. India would stand to gain from this exodus. India’s propitious economic tidings is not in China’s best interests. Beijing always abetted anti-India propaganda and has been complicit of Pakistan’s crimes. The growing Sino-Pakistan nexus and their joint insidious strategy for Kashmir has become more obvious and starker with the recovery of Chinese arms from the terrorists in Kashmir. China and Pakistan guided by larger geopolitical ambitions and Gazwa-e-Hind respectively are united by an anti-India agenda. Defining features of foreign policy of both countries is same-subterfuge, disinformation campaign, cyberattacks and asymmetric, low cost warfare. While Pakistan is an enemy, China is the real adversary. Coincidentally, these two countries are also ambitiously pursuing long-term strategic ambitions amid Corona pandemic. Aside the gargantuan task of tackling the pandemic, India must up its guard to frustrate the nefarious agenda of its belligerent neighbours.

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China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy and Economic Coercion

Firming up claims of successfully handling the Corona outbreak, China began actively pursuing its global ambitions. Leveraging confusion and distraction in the wake of Corona pandemic, China began aggressively asserting its geostrategic policies through unabated manoeuvring and intrusions into Indian Ocean. Even renaming of the reclaimed territorial features in the South China Sea (SCS) hasn’t escaped the attention of analysts. Fighting the Corona on one hand, nations are exercising extreme alacrity to ward off China’s ambitious penetrative encroachments. While Chinese military has been working round the clock to exploit the situation, its media wing has been swiftly carrying a favourable narrative propaganda of the Middle Kingdom touting it as the first global responder in the times of unprecedented health emergency.

Nations have been calling the bluff of the China’s fictitious media propaganda and rejecting defective and substandard Chinese-made medical supplies. Wary of Middle Kingdom’s burgeoning economic heft, countries eschewed an appeal for a collective investigation on Corona outbreak. Castigating all attempts to seek accountability tantamount to “racism and scape-goating” China’s dodged investigations as evaded scrutiny. Even the P5 countries dithered to evolve a consensus over the Corona issue.

Highlighting China’s attempts to exculpate from the pandemic, Australia’s The Daily Telegraph’s hilarious piece³ mirrored brewing public anger. China’s exuberant charm offensive and overdoses of its servile media propaganda has only fanned the suspicions of people. At least six class action law-suits were filed against China in the US courts seeking damages from China for the irreparable damages caused by the Covid-19 since March 13^{th 6}. German newspaper Bild demanded $165 billion as reparations from China ⁵. Nigerian lawyers filed a class action law-suit seeking reparations to a tune of $200 billion from China for Covid-19 damages ⁴. While the class suits are likely to be dismissed in courts since countries enjoy legal immunity, the underlying message seems to be a demand for accountability. Teeming number of class suits and open rebuke is a testimony of growing public backlash towards China.

While Chinese media is working overtime to uncouple Beijing from the pandemic, truculent, aggressive and acrimonious tweets of the Chinese diplomatic corps through its preposterous conspiracy theories have been undoing media’s whitewashing of Middle Kingdom’s crimes. “The Wolf Warrior Diplomacy” (derives its name from the nationalistic blockbuster movie, “Wolf Warriors”) of Chinese envoys replete of hyper-nationalism coupled with brashness is turning public hostile and circumspect about their motives.

Alongside the carefully crafted mask diplomacy, China’s current crop of rancorous diplomats are vociferously countering the countries which have complained of defective masks and kits. Attempting to rebrand itself as a global humanitarian, China suggested that it was donating the medical supplies. But in reality, China was reaping profits, beefing up the prices of life saving medical supplies. With global production centres coming to a grinding halt, countries turned to China to meet domestic requirements of essential medical equipment. Chinese supplies to countries turned out be defective, kits were unreliable. When countries criticised China for supplying poor quality stuff, turning tables around, instead of pledging to investigate the issue, China accused the users.

Spain, the Netherlands demanded refunds for the shoddy supplies. Slovakia, Turkey, France, Australia, Britain, the US too faced similar issues. Georgia cancelled orders for kits. Chinese envoys, in smaller countries made condescending protests and forced them into silence. Subsequently, Malaysia moved away from China and placed fresh orders with South Korea ⁷. China Communist Party (CCP)’s mouth piece, blamed India for mishandling the kits when India reported about serious inaccuracies of the Chinese kits. Chinese counsellor lashed out, “It is unfair and irresponsible for certain individuals to label Chinese products as faulty and look at issues with pre-emptive prejudice”¹⁰. India subsequently cancelled order for 5 lakh kits.

Irked by China’s bullying tactics, twitter users from Thailand, Hongkong, Taiwan gave a call for Milk Tea Alliance (because of their collective love for tea) against Chinese nationalists mindlessly defending its country’s handling of Corona outbreak⁸. Criticizing the Chinese authoritarianism, the alliance lent support to pro-democracy and pro-independence movements in Hongkong and Taiwan respectively.  

Corona outbreak has stumped complacent nations which paid heavy prices in terms of loss of live and severe economic downturn. The First World is now scrambling hard to contain the death toll. Ravaged by the pandemic, the US disappeared from the coveted global position of offering leadership. China stepped up the game by launching soft power inducements to advance long term strategic ambitions. Trumpeting China’s rising global influence strategic analysts, even termed the Corona virus as another “Suez Moment” and predicted a larger international role for China ¹¹.

Contrary to the conjecture, countries are seeing through China’s subterfuge, deception and evasion. Avoiding a direct confrontation with China, Japan the host for 2020 summer Olympics which incurred devastating economic losses due to Corona outbreak, announced an economic stimulus package of $2.2 billion for companies to relocate from China ⁸. Alluding to WHO’s complicity in the spread of Corona virus, miffed Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso called it a “Chinese Health Organisation”⁹.

Sweden’s ties with China strained after Beijing detained Chinese-born Swedish book seller Gui Minhai in 2015 for voicing concerns about suppression of Freedom of Expression in China. The animosity deepened as Sweden continued to openly object China’s authoritarian practices.  Notwithstanding, Chinese envoy’s repeated attempts to stifle its voice, Sweden held its ground and banned all Confucius institutes last year. In the wake of Corona outbreak, it closed all Chinese classes and annulled the twin city agreement with Shanghai ¹. Overwhelmed by looming economic recession and concerns of China’s debt trap diplomacy, a miffed, Tanzanian President John Magufuli cancelled Chinese loan worth $10 billion for Bagamoyo port construction ² in the wake of Corona pandemic. As opposed to the restrained condemnation of bigger nations, despite the economic pressures, smaller countries have been openly critical of China.

After halting funding to WHO, calling it “pipe-organ of China”, eyeing a re-election, President Trump intensified attacks on China holding it accountable for the pandemic. Upping the ante, Trump sought damages from Beijing for the virus outbreak¹². While European nations too made some subdued noises, Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne’s advocacy for international enquiry into the Covid-19 outbreak stood out. Deeming Australia’s appeal for investigation as a witch hunt orchestrated at the behest of America to humiliate China, China’s ambassador to Australia Cheng Jingye threatened of a “consumer boycott” of Australian goods in a telephonic conversation with Frances Adamson Secretary of Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). DFAT secretary admittedly assured China “it is not the time for review” but Chinese envoy published the private conversations on Chinese Embassy website the following day. This triggered a diplomatic storm. Australia regretted Chinese Embassy’s unprofessional behaviour. But shifting blame, China contended that Australia might have leaked the contents and that they were simply reciprocating the petty tactics.

Issuing a veiled threat, Chen said, “the Chinese public is frustrated, dismayed and disappointed with what Australia is doing now”¹³. Implying that this might trigger a boycott of Australian wine, beef, tourism and universities, he warned Australia of an impending economic coercion. While Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison assured that the enquiry wouldn’t be targeted at China and that he wanted to prevent recurrence of any such pandemic in future. China has miffed.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner and accounts for 26% of Australian trade, worth $150 billion. It is biggest market for Australian wine, beef, iron ore, coal and gas ¹⁴. In the wake of Corona pandemic, warned of predatory policies of authoritarian regimes, like EU, Australia has tightened rules on foreign investments and takeovers to safeguard its strategic sectors. To curb Chinese attempts to monopolise rare earth minerals sector, amid the economic downturn, Australia stalled Chinese investments. China’s Indo-Pacific expansionist strategy, heightened outreach with Pacific Islands posed a threat to safe passage of Australia’s trade and dwindled its influence in traditional neighbourhood. China’s ambitious BRI push among the Pacific Island countries sowed the seeds of dissension in Sino-Australian relations. Since 2018, diplomatic tensions between both countries escalated. And ever since Australia began diversifying its trade. Even as Australian trade honchos are bending over backwards to appease China for the fear of losing business, the Labour party too has supported Morrison’s position.

World Health Assembly (WHA) is due to meet on May 17^th. Australia which is on the executive board of WHA is expected to rise the issue of enquiry under the agenda of “lessons learnt”¹⁵. Australia which has quickly overcome the worst epidemic is seeking the support from “like-minded countries”. Hence China is throwing petulant hissy fits. But Australia stood its ground and Payne said, “Australia has principled call for independent review of Covid-19 outbreak……. We reject any suggestion that economic coercion is an appropriate response to a call for such assessment, when what we need is global cooperation”. With Australia refusing to yield, The Global Times lashed out saying, “Australia is always there, making trouble. It is a bit like chewing gum stuck on the sole of China’s shoes. Sometimes you have to find a stone to rub it off”¹⁶. This summed up China’s high-handed approach and dispelled illusionary pretence of being a good Samaritan. After Australia’s refusal to bow down to Chinese pressures, Thai Netizens have now added it to the Milk Tea Alliance.

On the Netherlands national day, the country changed the name of its trade and investment office in Taiwan Island to Netherlands Office in Taipei for convenience ¹⁷. Interpreting this move as an attempt to alleviate Taiwan’s global influence and supportive of Taiwanese independence, doubling up diplomatic aggression, China made vague threats of economic sanctions, suspension of trade, supply of medical equipment and people to people exchanges.

With its pugnacious approach, desperation and brashness China is antagonising various countries. The genteel-diplomacy is snowballing into war of words on social media and public sparring. The fierce firefighting of Chinese diplomats is bound to backfire. China is already facing severe flak from African countries for its indifference to growing incidents of xenophobia in the aftermath of the Corona lockdown. Instead of addressing the issue with empathy, China is trading barbs, shifting blame and disregarding the need for greater transparency. The dramatic shift in China’s diplomacy reflective of President Xi’s absolutist tendency is fuelling more distrust. This hard-nosed approach will irrevocably damage China’s global image.

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