India and the US elevate ties to comprehensive global strategic partnership

After the pageantry and show of the day one of President Trump’s 36-hour visit to India, day two turned out be high on substance. Much to the chagrin of the conspiracy theorists who over ambitiously cast a gloom on the Indo-US strategic partnership, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump elevated the ties to Comprehensive global strategic partnership.

By sealing the three of the four foundational agreements-General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) in 2002, Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016, Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018, India and US have strengthened the strategic partnership. Expanding the defence ties further, countries have signed the Industrial Security Annex (ISA) at the conclusion of the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, December last year. ISA enables India to be recipient of advanced technology and make in part of the global supply chain in the defence sector. This has cleared decks for co-production and co-development of defence equipment and platform and laid firm foundation for signing of the last foundational agreement BECA. BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement) sets the stage for exchange of geospatial information. Countries are likely to sign the agreement in March. Earlier Trump administration accorded STA-1 (Strategic Trade Authorisation) status paving way for sale of high-technology weapons. The US has made an exception by including India in the list which usually contains countries which are members of all the four nuclear regimes. Baring Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), India is part of the other three. It is widely known that China has stone walled India’s membership. In short, Defence cooperation has become lodestar of the Indo-US Strategic Partnership.

India’s defence purchases from the US which been virtually zero have steadily escalated to $18 billion in 2018-19. During Trump’s visit countries finalised the defence deals worth $3 billion for acquiring 24 MH-60 Romeo Helicopters and six AH-64E Apache helicopters, countries deepening the defence partnership. Security is an integral aspect of Defence partnership, to make it seamless, interoperability is the key. Drawing attention to the same in his press statement, Prime Minister Modi said, “India forces today are doing maximum training exercises with US forces. In the last few years there has been unprecedented interoperability between our armies”, paving way for greater maritime, space domain awareness as well.

Over years, India established formidable reputation of law abiding and peaceful nation by accepting verdicts of the International courts and resolving territorial disputes amicably. Given India’s geostrategic position, laudable credentials as security provider in the IOR region, the US which has shifted focus to the Indo-Pacific region has found a valuable partner in India. India can be an invaluable asset to countervail Chinese moves and keep the Asian continental and maritime spaces free from Chinese domination. With its growing markets, enviable demographic dividend and immense potential for investment and trade, ties with India are of immense significance to the US which is seeking fresh opportunities for trade. Also, after the pitched rivalry with Iran, the US has extended boundaries of the Indo-Pacific till Persian Gulf. Being the resident power, the US is enhancing engagement with India. Shedding the reluctance and hesitation, Trump administration is now seeking to share the most advanced defence technologies with India.  This departure from strategic hesitation pivoted on the mutual trust and good will is bound to enhance the engagement between the nations and usher the partnership into higher realms.

After India and the US failed to reach trade agreement, analysts cast gloom over Trump’s visit. On the contrary countries have resolved to intensify joint fight against terrorism, human trafficking, violent extremism, drug trafficking and cybercrimes and agreed to establish Counter Narcotics Working Group in close collaboration with Home Security of both countries. Seeking to enhance energy cooperation, India and the US evolved strategic energy security partnership to address India’s diverse energy needs. This includes import of coking coal, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and finalising the transfer of six nuclear reactors from Westing House Electric Company.  ISRO and NASA are now collectively working on the World’s first dual-frequency Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellite with many joint projects in pipeline. Measures are afoot to nurture students through the “Young Innovators” internship.

In a huge fillip to the Free, Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Countries have pledged to adhere to the rule-based order. Reinforcing the importance of the rule of law, freedom of navigation, overflight, lawful use of seas, unimpeded lawful commerce and peaceful resolution of the maritime disputes under the international law, India and the US underpinning the centrality of the ASEAN have objectively strengthened FOIP. Cognisant of the efforts towards evolving a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, India and the US urged them to be in line with the international law and not undermine legitimate rights of any country. Countries have agreed to intensify consultation under Quad, JAI (Japan America India), 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue mechanism.

In an interesting reference to Huawei, “During our visit, we discussed the importance of a secure 5G wireless network and the need for this emerging technology to be a too for freedom, progress, prosperity-not to anything where it could be even conceived as a conduit for suppression and censorship”(in a veiled reference to China). Endorsing the need for high quality, sustainable and transparent infrastructure development, US has invited India to be part of the Blue Dot initiative of the G7 which aims to bring private sector, civil society to promote transparent infrastructure development. Trump has reported that US is in talks with Japan and Australia as well. Through Development Finance Corporation (DFC), US has pledged $600 million towards India’s renewable energy projects. Also, India is part of the US’s W-GDP (Women’s Global Development and Prosperity), initiative aimed at nurturing entrepreneurial talents of Women led by Ivanka Trump.

India is now tagging along with countries like France to undertake developmental projects in the third World countries. India is now mulling such an arrangement with the US. Countries signalled collaboration between India’s Development Partnership Administration and USAID. India and the US exchanged three MoUs on Mental Health, Safety of medical products and letter of cooperation between IOC, India and Exxon Mobil India Limited

Trump who has been unequivocal in his condemnation of radical Islamic terror have called upon Pakistan to rein in on the terror operatives proliferating in its territory. The expanse of the cooperation and the congruity over common interests is certainly adding more strength to the partnership which is making good progress in several arenas. It is but indicative that the people to people connect is playing a pivotal role enhancing trust, goodwill for deepening of the partnership.

Eclipsing China, the US has become the largest trading partner of India. To boost bilateral economic cooperation, CII (Confederation of Indian Industries) and USIBC (US India Business Council) launched ‘$500 billion road map’ to review India and the US trade and policy reforms on the eve of Trump’s visit. Harping on the need for fostering greater synergies, the roadmap necessitated 13 policy interventions. In the past two decades, India and the US trade has grown at the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% and nearly 50% in the fast five decades. Currently the bilateral trade volume of goods and services is $142 billion. The report delved three possible scenarios- limping scenario with CAGR of 3.9% reaching the milestone by 2052; Chugging scenario with growth rate of 7.9% till 2035 and Soaring scenario clocking 11.9% growth tipped to reach the set target of $500 billion by 2030.

CII and USIBC have suggested several steps to boost investments and identified five emerging market segments-Blue economy, sports, space industry, tourism and environment. They suggested the feasibility of exploring FTA (Free Trade Agreement), a comprehensive Economic cooperation agreement to reduce tariffs. The US has recently sealed bilateral trade agreements with Mexico and Canada, signed first round of trade deal with China. Elevating the economic landscape of America, trade has been the top most priority of Trump. Given Trump’s propensity to expedite bilateral trade agreements, teams must work towards fast-tracking FTA in lieu of limited $10 billion limited trade deal. Modi and Trump have urged negotiating teams for early conclusion of the ongoing negotiations to reach phase one of comprehensive bilateral trade agreement. Reports that both India and the US trade teams are exploring the feasibility of FTA between the countries in the next 90 days mandated notice to US Congress. Modi has also pressed for conclusion of “Totalisation Agreement”. In his interaction with Indian business leaders, Trump promised to ease investment regulations.

By checking all the right button, Trump has nearly addressed all the outstanding issues between both countries. Assuring India of intelligence support and sharing of information, Trump has pledged to help India following America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Since the abrogation of article 370, West has relentlessly carried out a vicious campaign against India which intensified with the promulgation of CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act). Thanks to the nefarious propaganda, India’s domestic legislations were dragged into strategic conversations. Known for his faux pas, International Media expected an off the cuff remark on CAA from Trump to humiliate India and Modi.  Much to their consternation Trump refused to speak about the CAA during the press conference. Trump evaded questions on Kashmir. Unlike President Obama, who lectured India on tolerance despite a whopping 1.1 million racist assaults in America, Trump carefully avoided interfering in the internal affairs of India. On the contrary he lavished praise on Modi and lauded his phenomenal potential.

Even as the anti-CAA protests morphed into arson, violence, vandalism and descended into riots in the capital city, refused to be drawn into any conversation on CAA and “individual attacks”, he said, “That’s up to India. I hope it will take the right decision for its people”. Clearly, Trump could see through the widespread disruptions caused by the anti-CAA groups. Tensions orchestrated by anti-CAA mobs led to cancellation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s summit meet scheduled to be held in Assam, December last year. Having tasted blood, the lobby propped up by anti-Indian elements brewed new storm pitching up tents and blocking roads on the eve of Trump’s visit in the capital. Warned of these insidious plans, Modi and Trump went ahead with the bilateral summit. Sharjeel Imam, mentor of anti-CAA protests deposed before media that they want to create chaos, disruption and ruckus to draw international attention. President Trump’s visit has been their best bet.

By refusing to comment on CAA, Trump has denied the Western media a chance to tarnish India’s image. Heralding a diplomacy of friendship and respecting India’s sensitivities, Trump made an indelible impression on his maiden visit to India.

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With a forward-looking outreach, Trump made all the right noises

The city of Ahmedabad has been witnessing hectic renovation activity for over a month gearing up to host, “Namaste Trump” much along the lines of the “Howdy Modi” at Houston, August last year. President Trump’s first visit to India, in his first term, days after he is acquitted of impeachment trial by the Senate in an election year was widely critiqued.  

In the run up to Trump’s visit, there has been an exaggerated media coverage about the amount expended for the Namaste Modi event. A letter to Mike Pompeo by four US senators, two democrats and two Republicans ahead of Trump’s visit to India seeking a reassessment of CAA and abrogation of article 370 had only heightened concerns of plausible fruitful visit. Unfazed by the collapse of a putative trade deal and unmindful of the sceptics, who prophesised the visit to be high on optics and low on substance, playing a role of gracious host, India extended a spectacular welcome to President Trump.

Hyperventilating at few discordant notes, sceptics undermined the strategic dimension of the Indo-US relationship amidst rapidly changing world order. The ludicrous postulations from the Congress party’s mouth piece, National Herald, “India is the only poor and ‘shit-hole country’ Donald Trump has ever visited” conjectured their bias and disdain towards Trump. They assiduously portrayed Trump’s visit as purely electoral campaigning exercise. While an Indian outreach in the election year can have inherent political connotations but the incredulous, unwelcoming, op-Ed reflected their vociferous hatred towards Trump and their disdain for visit which has immense strategic significance.

Accepting Indian Prime Minister’s invitation, Trump embarked on a 36-hour visit to India and landed in Ahmedabad today morning. Indian government left no stone unturned in offering a phenomenal welcome to President Trump. As expected, the visit which was high in optics, turned into a moment of celebration with India displaying its vibrant diversity in full splendour. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi received Trump at the Ahmedabad airport. After the signature bear hug and thumping handshakes, the leaders kicked off a 22km-long road show. Along the entire stretch nearly 50 stages were erected where artistes from different parts of India performed in their traditional attire.  Leaders made first stop over at the Sabarmati Ashram, where Modi explained the crucial role played by Mahatma Gandhi in India’s Freedom Struggle. Overwhelmed by the warm reception, a delighted Trump left a message in the visitor’s book- “To my great friend Prime Minister Modi- Thank you for this wonderful visit”.

Visibly delighted by a sea of humanity at the Motera Stadium, Trump who has yearning for the crowds greeted them with, “Namaste” and thanked them for a “spectacular welcome” and “remarkable hospitality”. Referring to Modi as an “exceptional leader, a great champion of India… and tremendously successful leader”. Trump hailed Modi’s landslide electoral victory and extolled him “living proof of hard work and devotion”. Trumps’ endorsement of Modi’s attributes at a time when USCIRF has been seeking sanctions against India is indeed, an aspect to reckon with.

Needless to say, personal chemistry between both the leaders has been a driving force for the substantial progress in Indo-US strategic cooperation under Trump’s administration. Like Modi, Trump is master of the job and is known to pass orders. Mutual admiration of the leaders in the long term will this bode well for Indo-US relationship as well.

While it can be argued that India played well to Trump’s fascination for crowds to win his appreciation, on the contrary, Trump through his earnest enumeration of India’s tale of astounding progress won the hearts of Indians.  Unlike his typical oratory which is replete of jarred notes, glitches and goof-ups, Trump stumped the crowds by quoting relevant numbers. His appreciation of India’s fervent attempts to scale the economic trajectory seemed genuine. He reminded that in the past seven decades, India has become an economic giant and by the turn of the millennium, Indian economy increased six times. Trump’s rather pragmatic account of India’s economic landscape at a time, it is referred to as a “flagging economy” should bring cheer to investors who are rather despondent.

The unmissable euphemism associated with Indo-US engagement connotating as coming together of “the largest and the oldest democracies” is not lost on Trump.  Hailing India as “democratic, peaceful, break-free and tolerant country”, Trump rendered virulent anti-India propaganda of infamously referring to elected Indian government as “fascist, Nazi regime” irrelevant. Contrasting India’s unrivalled accomplishments to the coercion, aggression and intimidation of countries (veiled dig at China) which is a bane in the free world he underscored the importance of free society which drives innovation and creativity. Paying ode to India as hub of genius and creativity, Trump invoked the Bollywood, block blusters- Sholay and DDLJ. Given Indians penchant for Cricket he spoke of Sachin Tendulkar and Virat Kohli. Reciprocating India’s love he mentioned about India’s festivals- Diwali, Holi, tallest statue of Sardar Vallabhai Patel and even Swami Vivekananda. Trump eloquently touched aspects of shared values, common interests, held ode to the splendour of India’s cultural heritage.

Pledging a “good and great trade deal”, Trump effortlessly segued into the economic and strategic aspects of the Indo-US ties. Unlike major World leaders who are reluctant to call a “spade a spade”, Trump spoke of threat from “radical Islamic terror” and “militants operating from inside Pakistani borders” but resisted from the temptation to offer to mediate Kashmir issue. With a deal with Afghan Taliban around the corner, Trump stopped short of going ballistic on Pakistan but offered cooperation on counter terror cooperation to extricate terror. Hinting at the main agenda of bilateral talks, Trump asserted, “together we will defend our sovereignty, security and protect a Free and Open Indo-Pacific for our children and many generations to come”. Claiming the credit for the decimation of the ISIS caliphate and killing of its founder and Ieader, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, affirmed the might of American military forces. By conceding that every country has the historic right to deny permission and admission to elements that threaten the security and peace of the country, Trump has refused to interfere in India’s internal issues (here CAA). He added, “every nation has right to secure and controlled borders”. America’s willingness to sell sophisticated defence technologies including armed and unarmed drones, air defence missile systems and the largest trilateral exercises- “TigerTriumph” demonstrate that Indo-US relations are growing from strength to strength.

Indo-US trade has doubled in the last ten years and holds tremendous potential for growth. America is India’s largest trade market. A booming American economy will be in the best interest of India. Negotiations are in process for sealing a trade deal, USTR (US Trade Representative) issued executive order classifying India as a “developed nation” making India ineligible for GSP (Generalised System of Preferences). Certain sectors will be hard hit. No doubt, a trade deal will be a fantastic idea. But Trump has postponed it to November after his re-election.

Trump’s cultural overtures, and attempts to consolidate people to people connect heaping praise on the 4 million Indian Diaspora,-“ they are the titans of business, the biggest, the best pioneers of science, master of art, and innovation of technology like few people have been able to see no matter where you go anywhere in the universe” have certainly made a mark on Indian masses. He touched all the right cords and made every attempt to appreciate the essence of India and even acknowledged it spiritual pre-eminence.

Strategically Trump’s visit is shot in arm for India. It is a message to neighbours Pakistan-which seeks hyphenation and China for raking up discordant notes in the Indo-US relations. Despite a major revamp in the World order, America is a superpower and continues to occupy a pivotal position on global platform. Washington’s renewed trust in India will bode well for strengthening strategic partnership with like-minded countries like Japan, Australia, France and New Zealand. With every passing year, India has been expanding the matrix of cooperation. By acknowledging India’s civilisational values, vibrancy of diversity, Trump had indeed, strengthened the bonds of friendship. By reposing trust, Trump has cemented the partnership which is pivoted on the strength of shared values, ideas and principles.

Above all, by not getting drawn by the cacophony of the rancorous propaganda of domestic opposition which is seeking active advocates in foreign lands, Trump has earned the respect of India which is attempting to correct historical wrongs that have been an affront on the social, political, economic and strategic aspirations of the country.

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President Erdogan raking up Kashmir issue to nurture his caliphate Ambitions Part-II

Part -II

Glimpses of Erdogan’s ideology has been evident from the way he championed the likes of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and Jamaat-e-Islam (JI), which carries out violent attacks against minorities in South Asia. JI started by Syed Abdul Ala Maududi in 1941 served as ideological fount in advancing partition and Islamist Movement. It turned into a platform to recruit terrorists. Erdogan strongly defended actions of JI and condemned Bangladesh for executing its operatives.

With the blessings of Erdogan, in 2005 Turkey created Istanbul based-Union of NGOs of Islamic World (UNIW) to create “Ummah consciousness”. It has 340 organisations spread in 65 countries under its ambit. Helping Hand for Relief and Development (HHRD) and Kashmir Action Council (KAC) are the US-based wings of UNIW. HHRD has close ties with Falah-i-Insaniyat, the charitable arm of LeT responsible for 2008 blasts and Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM) headed by Syed Salahuddin architect of several attacks in India. KAC close ties with deep state Pakistan and its role in influencing American policy on Kashmir is well known. Director of KAC, Gulam Nabi Fai who served 16 months for receiving $3.5 million has close ties with JI, instrumental in introducing Wahhabi Islam in Kashmir.

Fai, currently a board member of UNIW is pursuing Kashmir issue through World Kashmir Awareness Forum. UNIW includes several media agencies and think-tanks to advance Islamist agenda. Erdogan’s daughter Sumeye Erdogan is vice-head of Women and Democracy Association (KADEM). Turkey is penetrating the American society through JI’s proxy group Islamic Circle of North America (ICNA).  The scale and spread of the Turkey funded terror operative is on a rise. In October, Russian envoy at UN, accused Turkey of dividing terrorists into good and bad and supporting Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), new incarnation of Al Nusra.  While Pakistan is the fountain head of terror, Turkey is abetting terror through financial support.

Turkey is wooing Indian Muslims who harbour a special fascination towards the erstwhile Muslim Caliphate. Getting ready to brace the mantle of Ottoman Empire, Turkey is reaching out radical Muslim clerics in India. Lucknow Imam Sheikh Salman Al-Husaini Al-Nadwi, who created a controversy for condoning ISIS and later retracted his statement following intense backlash is found to have close ties with AK Party of Erdogan. Through the think-tank South Asia Strategic Research Centre (GASAM) started by Pakistani-educated a deputy minister, Turkey is arranging trips for Indian Muslims to Istanbul extolling Caliphate idea. Hefty scholarships are offered to Indian Muslims to pursue education at institutions setup at the behest of Erdogan. Nadwi’s son Yunus who is studying in Turkey is a regular panellist in conferences organised by GASAM. Similarly, charitable institution, TURGEV set up by Erdogan foundation is found to be backing Kolkata Muslims protesting Triple Talaq.  Unlike Saudi Arabia, Turk’s moderate Islam of being acceptable to both Barelvi and Deobandi Muslims.

Controversial Indian cleric Zakir Naik delivered lecture at Turkish Youth Foundation (TUGVA) managed by Erdogan’s son Bilal Erdogan and established links with Turkish government. The Turkish Embassies in Hyderabad, Mumbai are working overtime to connect Indian Clerics with global jihadists and supporting their activities through a slew of NGOs. Nadwi is seen sitting next to global jihadist Yildiz.  To buttress strong man Islamist image, Turkey is cultivating JI operatives in PoK, involved in fanning Kashmiri movement and providing weapons to Arkan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). Through this unprecedented scale of a parallel administrative net work Erdogan is amplifying his campaign and catering to aspirations of his core Islamist constituency. By consistently supporting right to self-determination, Erdogan struck chord with Kashmir Separatists. Mirwaz Umar Farooq, chairman of Awami Action Committee and part of the All India Hurriyat Conference openly celebrated Erdogan’s re-election in 2018 Presidential Elections.

EU parliament took serious note to Erdogan’s attempts to Turkish Diaspora in Europe for his pursuits and issued stern warning. Notwithstanding this rebuke, Erdogan continues to breach the redlines of non-interference in internal affairs of countries and export radical ideology.

Erdogan’s ideology conforms to Islam’s theological definition of Dar-Al-Harb (regions where Islam doesn’t dominate) and Dar-Al-Islam (Muslim dominated region). These are also referred to as territories of chaos or war and territories of peace respectively. India is theologically Dar-Al-Harb and the larger goal of Muslim Caliphate has been creating Dar-Al-Islam. The Islamist agenda of Erdogan unequivocally endorses it. This concept overlaps with the Gazwa-e-Hind Pakistan’s policy towards India. This ideological synchrony furthering the camaraderie between Pakistan with Turkey. Being the lone nuclear Muslim country, Turkey which harbours nuclear ambitions seeks to salvage them through Pakistan. To this end, Turkey defended Pakistan’s right to carry nuclear tests while it denounced India and recommended Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership to Pakistan.

Qatar, a safe haven of Muslim Brotherhood supports Turkey’s war against Kurds. After the US withdrew support to Kurds, Hamas backed Turkey, with an objective of using Turkish territory to launch Zionist attacks. Following American retreat from Syria, Erdogan assumed leadership role. Turkey is reportedly stoking terrorism by supplying arms to Boko Haram and funding Nusra Front in Syria, al Qaeda in Mali. Turkey has dubious links with jihadi groups across the World. It maintains trade ties with ISIS, it can be concluded that Turkey and Pakistan can be ranked as major centres of global terrorism. Despite mounting evidences, both countries unapologetically use terror networks to foster their agendas. This unqualified congruity in their strategic outlook explains the touted “Muslim brotherhood” between both nations.

There are eerie similarities between Pakistan and Turkey with respect to their geostrategic position. Straddling across the two continents, Turkey has enormous strategic influence. Turkey used its geographic position to hilt to foster its strategic advantages. Despite Turkey’s misgivings, the Western World overlooked them as they believed Istanbul can act as a bulwark against expanding Russian presence in the region. In the recent past, Turkey has been flexing muscles and meddling the precarious peace in the Middle East. But the West is incapable of acting against Turkey as Erdogan has threatened to open the flood gates of the Syrian refugees into Europe. Turkey is hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees. Since the Afghan invasion in 2001, America has become cash cow for Pakistan. Despite Pakistan’s subterfuge, lies and deceit, Trump administration which is keen on sealing peace plan with Afghan Taliban is softening its approach towards Islamabad. Indeed, Pakistan is using its geographic location to its advantage, twice over, playing the right cards against both America and China.

Post failed coup attempt in 2016, India’s ties with Turkey were shrouded in suspicion. Gulenists who advocate a secular agenda are believed to have engineered coup. Erdogan has purged thousands of Gulenists, cracked down on his sympathisers and tightened media restrictions. Fethullah Gulen who escaped to the US and unfavourable to the idea of re-establishing a caliphate denied any involvement.  But Turkey accused America. Erdogan believes that Gulenists or Fethullah Gulen Terrorist Organisation (FETO) has infiltrated India and New Delhi has failed to curb its activities.   

Back in 2012, analyst Ruchi Sharma categorised Turkey under the larger group of Breakout Nations- the nations to watch out for future economic miracles. But Political Islam becoming the driving force of the President, Turkey steadily slid into recession. Progress and development took a back seat. India is a seat for economic opportunity, Turkey’s antipathy towards India and alignment with Pakistan explains the nation’s shift in priorities. Setting aside the economic interests, Erdogan played the high-risk gamble criticizing China of inhuman treatment of Uighur to position himself as champion of Muslim issues.

Erdogan ambition to re-establish a Caliphate created a schism in Muslim World and a nascent discernible mini-Muslim coalition driven by anti-Arab sentiment was evident at the 2019 Kuala Lumpur Summit. A new axis of power comprising of Malaysia, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran and Qatar is in the making.

Turkey is now a favourite destination for Islamist intellectuals and the proof lies in its domestic laws. Sandhya Jain in her article highlighted about Turkey’s Universal Jurisdiction laws which are part of domestic laws. Article 13 of the Turkish Penal Code says, “Turkish laws can apply to the crime of torture committed in a foreign country whether or not the crime is committed by a citizen or non-citizen”.  Khalistanis attempted to use this law. Legal Advisor of Sikh for Justice, funded by ISI and working on Referendum 2020, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on his visit to Turkey in October 2018 paid homage to Gallipoli soldiers and secured an arrest warrant against Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh restraining him from leaving Turkey. Singh was in Turkey on a personal visit.

After the abrogation of article 370, ex-IAS officer Shah Faesal attempted to flee to Turkey to use this law. He planned to file a case against Home Minister, Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, former Army Chief Bipin Rawat on the behalf of his political party Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Movement. According to Vienna Protocol, Prime Minister and External Affairs Ministers have diplomatic immunity. However, Faesal’s larger plans were nixed as government issued look out notice and he was caught at the airport. Congress overseas wing led by Sam Pitroda has opened party’s foreign office in Turkey. It doesn’t need a rocket science to explain that Turkey is becoming a safe haven for anti-Indian elements guided by the Pakistani handlers.

Giving teeth to the Turkey and Pakistan ties, countries are mulling an arrangement for citizens of both countries to obtain dual citizenship. Turkey is the second largest arms-supplier to Pakistan after China. After the US imposed sanctions on sale of F-16, Pakistan sought Turkey’s help. In 2018, Pakistan purchased $1.5 billion worth 30 T-129 attack helicopters. Both countries are making 17,000 tonne fleet tanker in Karachi and signed a $1 billion deal to buy Turkish made, four MILGEM-medium sized warships.

In his address to the joint session of Parliament during his state visit, Erdogan drew parallels between Kashmir and Gallipoli, Turkish resistance movement safe guarding the Dardenelles Strait in 1915. He recalled the solidarity shown by Indian Muslims through Lahore rally led by Allama Iqbal. Extending unflinching support, he said, “Today, Kashmir for us is what it is to you (Pakistanis). How can we forget those (Pakistanis) who prayed for Turkey? Our friendship is based on love and vested interests. Like in past, we will continue to support Pakistan in future”.

Despite Indian protestations, Erdogan continues to raise Kashmir issue. As a member of OIC’s contact group on Kashmir Turkey has been instrumental in passing a highly critical resolution against India along the sidelines of UNGA. Irked by Turkey’s interference, Modi met Cyprus President and Armenian Prime Minister. Hinting at India’s disparagement, Prime Minister Modi cancelled trip to Turkey in October. After withdrawal of American forces from Syria, India slammed Turkey “for unilateral military offensive” and asked it “to exercise restraint”. India suspended a defence deal for building war-ships with Turkish enterprise, issued a travel advisory to Indian tourists and expanded engagement with Armenia. Indo-Turkish relations are disaffected over a range of issue- India didn’t support Turkey’s nuclear ambitions, the bilateral ties are skewed in favour of India, collaborative construction projects in Middle East and Africa between the countries failed to kick-off and finally India refused to crackdown on the Gulen-controlled schools and institutes spread across different parts of the country. Retrospectively, Turkey revived military and larger strategic cooperation with Pakistan, courting Indian Muslims, arming the terror operatives South Asia and unleashed Islamist agenda.

At the time of writing, reports indicate that FATF decided to keep Pakistan in grey list. To avoid ‘black list’ Pakistan needed three votes. Turkey and Malaysia supported Pakistan at FATF while China took a critical note of Pakistan’s failure to curb financing of terror organisations.  Turkey once again rescued Pakistan and demonstrated solidarity. Geopolitically, China-Pakistan tango have been threatening Indian interests. Revival of Pakistan-Turkey brotherhood is posing fresh challenges to India’s sovereignty and integrity. India must up its guard against this new ideological entente cordiale.

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President Erdogan raking up Kashmir issue to nurture his caliphate Ambitions Part-I

Ending prolonged status quo, India abrogated the autonomy of state of Jammu and Kashmir. Frustrated Pakistan, made every attempt to internationalise the issue. Buttressing Pakistan’s efforts, Turkish President Erdogan raised the issue at UNGA. Expressing regret over Erdogan’s remarks at UNGA, MEA asserted, “We call upon the Turkey government to get a proper understanding of the situation on the ground before they make any further statements on this issue. It is a matter which is completely internal to India”. Notwithstanding India’s stern response, last week in a joint declaration, Erdogan approved Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir and expressed complete solidarity to Islamabad. India took strong objection to “all references to Jammu and Kashmir” and urged Turkey to “not interfere”. In the light of Turkish President’s relentless anti-India postulations, it is imperative to explore the steadfastness of Pakistan and Turkey bilateral ties.

This article is the first part of the two-article series which attempts to analyse the burgeoning Turkey-Pakistan strategic partnership and its implications.

Part-I

Kashmir has been Pakistan’s jugular. As the first Muslim nation in the post-colonial era, Pakistan demanded support of Muslim Community (ummah) and used OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation), the second largest intergovernmental organisation after UN to relentlessly pursue Kashmir issue. Bound to uphold Muslim interests, OIC responded to Pakistan’s Kashmir dynamic. It constituted a Contact Group on Kashmir comprising Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Niger and Pakistan in 1994 which supported self-determination of Kashmiris and offered to mediate difference between India and Pakistan. In 2009, OIC appointed a Special Representative to Kashmir. Dissatisfied with these steps, Pakistan demanded restrictions on employing Indian citizens in Arab countries and trade sanctions as well.

Islamabad stifled India’s entry into OIC despite having third largest Muslim population after Indonesia and Pakistan. Not discouraged by Pakistan’s insidious plans, India cultivated ties with diverse Muslim countries. With time, fissures developed in OIC. Much to the disappointment of Pakistan which anticipated a strong backing from the OIC in the aftermath of abrogation of Article 370, UAE deemed the legislation as India’s internal issue. Baring Turkey, Malaysia, China and Pakistan no other country raised K-issue at the 2019 UNGA summit. Speaking at the UNGA Erdogan said, “Despite the resolutions, India-Occupied Kashmir is still besieged and eight million people are stuck in Kashmir” lending credence to Pakistan’s false propaganda.

Erdogan’s statements brought to the fore the salience of new surge in Pakistan-Turkistan engagement. After the first World War, Turkey emerged as the only independent Muslim nation. Against all odds, formidable Indian Muslims support vindicated Turkey’s sovereignty regarded as the only Islamic Caliphate. Ali brothers took on the British for Turkey and Indian Muslim Fund offered 125,000 pounds, later used in construction of Turkish Parliament at Ankara and first Nationalist Bank. The Khilafat agitation of 1919 exemplified India’s support to former Ottoman Empire. Founder of Pakistan, Mohammed Ali Jinnah had a special fascination towards Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and envisioned to develop Pakistan along the modern framework of Kemalism.

After partition, Pakistan established diplomatic ties with Turkey and signed eternal friendship agreement in 1954. It affirmed wide range of cooperation over international matters of mutual interest, defence, manufacture and production of arms and ammunition and support in an event of unprovoked attack from outside. Pakistan’s west-ward tilt can be attributed to Turkey, a part of the Western League and shared West’s fears of a Southward invasion by the Soviet forces. Consequently, Pakistan has been part of the Baghdad pact comprising of UK, Turkey, Iran and Iraq which eventually transformed into CENTO (minus Iraq). Pakistani President Iskandar Mirza signed a communique in 1956 stating that Turkey will standby Pakistan to resolve disputes with India while Pakistan will support Turkey over Cyprus issue.

This entente intensified in the subsequent years. Turkey, Pakistan and Iran developed an alliance, Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD). During Pakistan’s wars with India, RCD firmly stood behind it and Turkey delivered $5 million worth arms and ammunition. After Pakistan officially recognised Bangladesh in 1974 Turkey and Iran extended similar courtesy. The recently concluded mini Muslim coalition at Kuala Lumpur can trace its origins to a coalition envisaged by Turkish President Celal Bayar who mulled a Muslim grouping comprising of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. But Afghanistan being neutral refused to join. Pakistan, Turkey and Iran went ahead and laid foundation for united communication network between the countries funded by the US.

Extending commensurate support and defending Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus in 1974 at the UN, Islamabad supported Turkey. West condemned Turkey’s conquest over North Cyprus and objected its aggressive action. Turkey’s refusal to allow US to airlift supplies to Israel during the 1973 Middle East war created a crisis of confidence with Western allies. Istanbul’s ties with the West strained.  West’s alienation brought about a marked change in Turkey’s foreign policy. Despite historical grudge Turkey cozied up to Arab World and became regular participant of OIC since 1981. Let down by Western allies, Pakistan and Turkey joined NAM (Non-Allied Movement). Russian invasion of Afghanistan and revolution in Iran which marked a drastic shift in geopolitics led to crumbling of CENTO and eventually RCD. Iran moved out. While warmth of Iran-Pakistan ties with Iran is still questionable, bilateral ties between Turkey and Pakistan relation thrived on ideological commonality and mutual admiration in part.

There is significant solidarity between both nations over several issues. Turkey is particularly close to Azerbaijan, which sparred with Republic of Artkash supported by Armenia. Armenia has no diplomatic ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Pakistan is the only country who doesn’t recognise Armenia which suffered a genocide at the hands of Turkey. Soon Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan developed into an axis. By implication this axis backs Pakistan on Kashmir at the UN while Armenia continues to side with India.

There are areas of notable geopolitical differences-Pakistan attaches immense importance to her ties with Arab World, Turkey harbours different ambitions. Similarly, Turkey engages with Israel to stabilise its position in the Middle East dominated by Arabs. Ironically, Turkey objected to Israel’s 1967 war but maintained diplomatic ties with Jerusalem. As of now Pakistan evades any official interaction with Israel. Likewise, Turkey supported the North Alliance comprising of Tajiks and Uzbeks. Turks and Uzbeks share common heritage. While Pakistan was on the opposite side. Even now the Uzbek Taliban seek refuge in Turkey. One of the two vice-Presidents of Afghanistan, Abdul Rashid Dostum is openly hostile towards Pakistan.

Under President Erdogan, despite the divergences on geopolitical front, steered by the larger goal of heading a Sunni World and driven by vision 2023, Turkey is renewing ties with Pakistan. Till the elevation of Erdogan, Turkey was fraught with perennial military coups. With an impressive economic resurrection during his first tenure, Erdogan earned the trust of the people. Slowly, he began to supplant the administration with his agenda of establishing a Caliphate. Erdogan has been unequivocal about his grand vision 2023 for Turkey which marks the one hundredth anniversary of establishment of Turkish Republic. This included creation of new identity, making Turkey a global actor and journey into an imagined future reconstructing a collective grandiose Turkish identity. In no uncertain terms, faithful followers of Erdogan began to imagine him a “Caliph”. Truly, his rise to power in 2002 and his envious consolidation of authority, extricating the military tutelage, weakening of other organs of democracy like legislature, executive and judiciary had all the hallmarks of rise of powerful autocrat. The Turkish Republic envisioned by architect of the nation Kamal Ataturk suffered a gradual melt down. Instead of promising more freedom and liberty to the civil society the narcissistic rise of Erdogan resulted in purging of enemies and censorship of liberties, freedom of expression and press that became more apparent since the failed coup in 2016. His re-election and continual harping on the collective trauma of the fall of the Ottoman Empire and its periodically invocation created a zealous nationalism.

Religiously following this very paradigm, Erdogan snatched victory in 2018 despite public consternation. Ever since Erdogan has been sailing in deep and murky waters to unapologetically realise his vision of establishing an Islamic Caliphate. Among the grand visions of Erdogan included a dictum of appointing advisers from all Muslim regions from the supposed Caliphate. Clearly the writing has been on the wall. Suat Onal, member of governing council of AKP (Justice and Development Party) posted on Facebook, “Erdogan will become the caliph in 2023 and Allah will shed his light on him”. Not only staunch political Islamists, several sections of people including academicians endorsed Erdogan’s postulations, interference in Syria, Iran, Libya and absolved him of humongous levels of corruption.

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Modi government’s landmark Bodo Peace Accord 2020

Since elevation to power in 2014, Modi government made laudable efforts to bring the much-neglected North East region into fold of development. Modi who has referred to North Eastern states as “Ashta Lakshmi” swung into action to revive the region and settle several contentious issues plaguing the region. Dilly-dally approach of previous dispensations turned the region into a hotbed for violence, killing, kidnappings and extortion. People began to lose faith in democracy. Development took a back seat.

Modi’s government’s earnest Naga Peace Accord in 2015 testified its commitment towards restoration of peace and harmony in the region. NDA’s efforts to engage with the warring factions through empathic understanding, won the confidence of people. Even extremism related killings registered a sharp decline. To revamp the region marred by violence, government generously allocated funds to initiate a slew of infrastructure development and connectivity projects. Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act was lifted from several regions.  With a promise of development-oriented governance, BJP even made political inroads into the region. Now BJP is in power in six out of the seven NE states. In the first five years of his tenure Prime Minister Modi, transformed the region by improving accessibility. Making development of the region as an immediate priority under the Act East policy, Modi government turned it into a gateway for South East Asia.

Months into second term, Modi government passed several legislations which changed the economic, social, political and civilisational milieu of India. To bring about peace, harmony and development to region, Modi government signed Bodo Peace Accord on January 27^th. Shadowed by Shaheen Bagh, anti-CAA narratives and Delhi Elections, a landmark peace deal which attempted to conclusively address the longstanding demands of Bodos was clinched. Government signed a tripartite agreement with all factions of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), All Bodo Students Union (ABSU), and United Bodo Peoples Organisation (UBPO), a civil society organisation. The accord the third in line in the past 27 years.

Indian government signed first agreement to settle the Bodoland issue in 1993. Since pre-independence era, Bodo leaders have been demanding separate representation. In 1929 for the first time Bodo leader Gurudev Kalicharan Brahma submitted a memorandum to the Simon Commission demanding reservation for Bodos in Assam Legislative Assembly. After independence, when states were carved on linguistic basis, Bodos reiterated their demand in 1960s and renewed calls for separate state “Udayachal”.  

By 1980s ABSU and Bodo Peoples Action Committee (BPAC) intensified protests for a Bodoland and sought the division of the state of Assam to create a separate Bodoland. Acceding to the demands of ABSU, in 1993 government created Bodoland Autonomous Council (BAC) bestowing some political powers. By 1996 violent protests erupted in the region due to gaps in implementation and ABSU revived the demand for separate statehood. In 2003, the Central government signed second tripartite agreement with Assam government and Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT), the underground armed unit of ABSU, leading to creation of Bodo land Territorial Council (BTC) under the sixth schedule of the Constitution. Accordingly, Bodoland Territorial Area District (BTAD) comprising of four contiguous northern districts of Assam-Kokrajhar, Chirang, Udulguri and Baska was created. But violence returned to the region between 2012-2014 due to series of riots between Bodos and non-Bodos leading to death of hundreds and displacement of over five lakh people. For several decades, peace eluded the region and piecemeal accords failed to bring harmony to the state.

Given the expediency of current accord, sceptics have expressed concerns over the veracity of the deal.  Interestingly, the preparations for a fresh peace deal have been underway for the past six months. As per news reports, determined to bring all Bodo militants to mainstream, Chief Administrator of BTC Hagrama Mahilary, a former militant leader of defunct BLT together with Indian, Myanmarese authorities have played a crucial role in bringing the last of insurgent leaders to India. Mahilary is head of Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), a BJP-alliance partner. He took upon himself to make the region militant free. He is believed to have reached out to NDFB-P and NDBF-R.

NDFB in the previous avatar was Bodo Security Force (BSF). After the failure of the first peace accord in 1993, BSF became NDFB which soon evolved into the largest militant group and carried out attacks on the non-Bodos. With the help of ULFA, NDBF initially moved to Bhutan borders. In 2003, Royal Bhutan Army launched “Operation All Clear” to flushing out these outfits along its borders, NDBF moved to Myanmar. In 2005 NDBF split after a group led by Govinda Basumatary, NDBF Progressive (P) signed ceasefire agreement with government. The remaining group led by Ranjan Daimary unleashed violence in the region that killed over 100 people. After Daimary’s arrest in Bangladesh in 2012, he agreed for peace talks with government. But the breakaway faction led by IK Sangbijit evaded peace process and continued to operate from Myanmar with Paresh Baruah’s help. B Saoraigra started leading the group after Sangbijit left.

Aside Mahilary, reports indicate that two young men of Bodo region both in their 20s played a pivotal role in bringing the different factions of NDBF to accept the peace negotiations. They are Prince Raj Kumar Prithviraj Narayan Dev Mech, the 19^th descendent of the Bodo king and his friend an IIT Madras alumnus from Humanities stream Thulunga Basumatary. They earned the trust of the central government and prepared a draft peace plan, travelled to Myanmar to meet the NDBF (S) leadership and convinced them to disband arms. They took families of NDBF (S) families into confidence.

With the concerted efforts of the various peace aspiring zealots, government signed the 2020 peace accord. NDFB groups led by Ranjan Daimary, Govinda Basumatary, Dhiren Boro, B Saoraigra signed the agreement. According to reports, nearly 80% of the draft prepared by the young Assamese found place in the final accord. Unlike the previous accords, this landmark deal inked by central government obtained the consent of all the major stakeholders of the region. The present government unlike in the past, prevailed upon Myanmar to deny militants refuge. Myanmar Army is believed to have driven away these insurgent groups away from their hideouts along the borders. The various extremist leaders of India origin over years have found safe haven in Myanmar. Given the strong links between NDBF (S) and Paresh Baruah who sometimes operates from China, there are lingering doubts about the group returning to mainstream. Of the two major factions of ULFA, one group has been in peace talks since UPA regime, Modi government is sending feelers to Baruah with a proposed plan.

In the first fortnight of January last of Bodo insurgent faction, B Saoraigra’s NDFB (S) which has hideouts in Myanmar surrendered to Indian forces along the Indo-Myanmar border with their weaponry. In a ceremony on January 30^th commemorating the death anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi 1615 NDBF militants surrendered arms and weaponry.

The new agreement is truly outstanding, as it created a homeland for Bodos, the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) which has more political, executive, administrative and financial powers without disturbing the territorial integrity of Assam. As a result, militants have dropped the idea of a separate statehood. Through this accord government has developed a template of “homeland without coming out of the parent and existing state”. It can now replicate this new arrangement in resolving the demands of the tribal groups in Manipur, Nagaland and of various ethnic and tribal groups in Assam.

Government instituted a commission headed by retired judge who will now work out a mechanism to exchange villages. Villages with majority tribal population and contiguous with BTR can now be included the autonomous region and the non-tribal villages can be excluded. This mechanism can address the issues of both tribals and non-tribals part of the council currently. Number of seats are raised to 60 from existing 40 and 16 seats are demarcated as open. These can be contested by non-tribals. Also, a provision was created to nominate women and non-tribals to BTR council. In all, government has allotted 1500 Crores package to the council towards development of various academic, educational, cultural institutions. Bodo language in Devnagri script is declared as official language of the region. Special constitutional provisions were put in place to maintain the unique cultural, linguistic and ethnic identity of Bodos.

Addressing a huge rally in Kokrajhar, Modi touted this accord as the “new dawn of Assam”. The huge turnout of over 5 lakh people and the bill rallies by the militant outfits ahead of the rally demonstrates that Modi government has delivered on its promise to bring peace. BPF has been ruling the BTC unrivalled since 2003. Speculations are rife that the four factions of NDBF are likely to float a political party. The willingness of militant factions to participate in a democratic process through political recourse is a welcome change and reflects their proclivity to eschew violence. This marked shift is an endorsement of government’s accord to reinstate peace.

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AAP retains Delhi and BJP falters on its strategy

Consolidating its political fortunes in the National Capital Territory, AAP swept the 2020 Assembly Elections. Marred by violent attacks, staged shootings and the interminable Shaheen Bagh anti-CAA protests 2020 Delhi Assembly Elections hogged national attention.  The supposed three-way contest between-AAP, BJP and INC have turned to be a bipolar contest with Congress failing to make a mark. AAP with a vote share of 53.6% obtained 62 seats while BJP having increased its vote share to 38.4% won in 8 constituencies in the 70-seat legislative assembly. Congress with a nominal vote share of 4.2% lost deposits in 67 seats.

With this stellar victory, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal is all set to swear-in as the chief minister of Delhi for the third-time in succession. While BJP has marginally increased its vote share and tally compared to 2015 elections, the dream of clinching power in Delhi still eludes it. A bitter defeat for BJP in Delhi assembly elections months after it lost power in the Jharkhand warrants a serious introspection. Decimation of Congress is slowly ushering the Indian polity into an era of “Congress Mukht Bharat”. The gradual wiping out of the Congress from  Indian politics has created a huge lacuna. Regional parties are leaving no stone unturned to fill this political vacuum. Until BJP resolves to groom leaders at the state level it can’t stand a chance to compete with regional parties. BJP which prides in its commendable leadership must now cultivate regional leaders to improve its ground connect. Ably assisted by contingent of motivated cadres, BJP can then aspire to compete with regional parties on equal footing.  With elections lined up in big states like Bihar and West Bengal, BJP must evolve new strategies to take on regional parties.

AAP’s massive win in part can be attributed to consolidation of anti-BJP forces. With Congress out of contest, AAP which avoided any rhetoric during the election campaign, managed to garner the support of the swing voters or the fence sitters who are largely indecisive. Frenzied BJP motor mouths have certainly driven away some of the neutral voters with their hollow outbursts. While the provocative hyperbole of BJP garnered all the attention, Kejriwal’s blatant dole outs to Imams since January 2019 escaped all censure. Following AAP’s worst electoral performance in 2019 General elections, with an eye on upcoming assembly elections Kejriwal rolled out several freebies including free bus rides to woman. The left-dominated media justified them and even dared other state governments to follow the same trend.  Media turned a blind eye to his soft Hindutva of teerth yatra to senior citizens. AAP’s stupendous performance is attributed to his good governance and laudable initiatives in health and education sectors. If development alone has been the single point agenda of AAP it shouldn’t have lost the 2017 municipal elections.

There have been several factors at play which includes polarisation politics. Despite AAP’s links with the shooting at the Shaheen Bagh protests and PFI, it was given a clean chit and the victory was ascribed to Kejriwal’s development-oriented politics. On the contrary, freebies have done the magic for Kejriwal. Unleashing the doctrine of socialism, AAP has earned the support of huge migrant population of the national capital. Besides, Kejriwal carefully stayed away any from taking any stand on the contentious Shaheen Bagh protests, silently supported Ram Mandir verdict and the abrogation of 370. Having borne the brunt of a series of defamation charges and its legal implications Kejriwal learnt it the hard way and refrained from making politically insidious comments.

In India, political parties, especially national parties are expected to be election ready.  After every electoral setback, an aspiring political party like BJP must introspect and learn from the past mistakes to stay politically relevant and afloat. The message is clear. BJP must focus on preparing second rung leadership to win state battles. BJP swung into Delhi elections with full force just a fortnight before elections and released candidate list few days ahead of final day of nomination. Also, BJP entered into pitched battle with AAP, singularly run and dominated by Kejriwal without any chief ministerial candidate who can represent the vision of the party. Having released the manifesto almost towards the end of the campaigning it has failed to communicate its vision for the state to the electorate effectively. Every defeat offers hard lessons and BJP must now go back to drawing board to get back to winning ways.

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Harnessing India's soft power through humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations

India’s swift response to distress calls marshalling all its resources at its disposal is now matter of intense pride. Last week India successfully evacuated Indians and seven Maldivians in the Hubei Province following the Corona virus. The Maldives profusely thanked India for the solidarity in the times of need. Similarly, in 2015 Indian Security Forces, launched Operation Rahat, to evacuate over 4000 Indians trapped in Yemen. Indian Air Force and Navy worked in tandem. Indian Navy deployed INS Mumbai which escorted commercial shipping vehicles and INS Tarakash, IN Sumitra carried stranded Indian Diaspora from war ravaged Yemen. All the three vessels were deployed in rotation to complete the evacuation process of 5600 people which included 960 foreign nationals from 26 countries within four days. While this operation is not first of its kind as India previously evacuated its citizens from crisis situations in Lebanon 2006, Libya in 2011, Iraq in 2003 and 2014, evacuation from Yemen was replete of dangers as the entire process was executed amidst ongoing war between Houthi rebels and Saudi Coalition. India also had the unique distinction of carrying out World’s biggest civilian evacuation in during the Kuwait war of 1990 when over 110000 people were airlifted through 500 sorties. Operation Rahat is etched in people’s memory for India’s proactive approach. For the first time an India’s Minister of State for External Affairs Gen V.K. Singh travelled to Yemen to oversee the operations. Evacuation of people from war zone exemplified India’s prowess in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations.

IONS- HADR Operations

Since the turn of millennium, Indian Ocean Region (IOR) became highly disaster prone and witnessed numerous extreme climatic events. Piracy threats has exacerbated this situation. Pertinent to the emergent needs of the littorals, India has stepped up deployment of Indian Navy, to handle the HADR, Non-Combatant Evacuation (NEO), Search and Rescue Operations (SAR).  Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004, the deadliest ever earthquake in the India Ocean which ripped the shores of Sri Lanka, India, Maldives, Indonesia and Thailand killed mind-boggling 2.3 lakh people. Jolted India, accorded highest priority to Disaster Management, enacted Disaster Management Act 2005 and envisaged creation of National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) headed by Prime Minister and State Disaster Management Agencies (SDMA) headed by Chief Ministers. Subsequently, India’s approach towards disaster relief underwent massive transformation. Through pro-active planning India mitigated disasters and soon emerged as front runner of HADR operations.

As the chairperson of the IONS (Indian Ocean Naval Symposium) Working Group of HADR, India developed a Draft on HADR Guidelines for IONS in 2018. Conceived and initiated by India in 2008, after the initial years, there has been brief lull in the functioning of IONS forum. Modi regime infused a new energy into this forum and necessitated the need for coordinating navies of IONS. For the first time IONS carried out multilateral Maritime Search and Rescue Exercise in 2017.

India-Regional Security Provider

With growth centres shifting East and sea borne trade transiting Indian Ocean registering a marked increase, India realised the strategic importance of its geographical location and peninsular nature. For decades, engrossed by the continental threats, Indian focused remained landwards. With Indian Ocean becoming backbone of the global trading system, to be a continental power, India started looking seawards after a millennium of inward and landward focus. Though Manmohan Singh declared that India is well positioned to become net security provider in the immediate neighbourhood and beyond in 2013, India never had any policy in place. Giving wings to India’s aspirations, Prime Minister Modi on his first state visit to India’s Maritime Neighbourhood in 2015, rolled out SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrine to keep the region peaceful and secure. Underlining the salience of IOR for global commons, India called for intensifying cooperation among agencies and navies of the countries in the region. While the contribution of the Indian Ocean in global trade is set to increase, the region lacked an effective mechanism to secure Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC). As a result, the region depended on external stakeholders for the security of the SLOCs and assistance during distress. Modi’s SAGAR doctrine essentially aimed at filling this lacuna.

As a first step India has stepped up its engagement with littorals in the IOR. To ensure prosperity of the region with the cooperation of regional stakeholders, given its limited wherewithal, India has set a new paradigm of becoming the “First Responder”. Offering succour to those in distress, India steadily buttressed its credentials as a “Regional Security Provider”. Given India’s geographic centrality, Commodore Lalit Kapur opined that Maritime security challenges of a nation has three major aspects-the benign humanitarian assistance; “constabulary” function of securing the SLOCs and ensuring safe maritime transportation; finally countering the coercive actions of the nation-states.

Accordingly, with unfailing regularity, India has established reputation as a reliable responder. Fortifying its role in security India has set up Information Fusion Centre for IOR (IFC-IOR) at Gurugram last year to step up coordination with regional security agencies and forces. Lurking Chinese presence and creeping domination the IOR has become a major challenge for India. To create coercive pressure against the dominating presence of Chinese forces in IOR which can threaten SLOCs India is expediting maritime security cooperation with like-minded countries, regularly hosting joint naval exercises, steadily bolstering interoperability capacities and diplomatic heft. While the work on the security and countering coercive forces is work in progress, India is accumulating good will through its Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations.

India’s Overseas HADR Operations

India has been a reliable friend in times of need for several Indian Ocean littorals in the past. “Operation Flowers are Blooming” to avert a UK supported coup in Seychelles and “Operation Cactus” to abort palace coup in Maldives by Sri Lankan mercenaries vouch for India’s committal towards friends and partners. As opposed to deploying professional Navy for choking enemy supplies, India is increasingly using its maritime readiness to deliver humanitarian aid.

Beneficiaries of India’s HADR operations include littorals in the sub-continent, IOR and African countries along the Eastern Coast. During Modi regime, Indian Naval Ship Kirch handed over relief material to Sri Lanka in May 2017. INS Jalashwa and INS Shardul assisted in relief operations. INS Sumitra reached Bangladesh Coast to rescue people found adrift 100 nautical miles from Chittagong and then visited Yangon during Cyclone Mora in May 2017 to handover supplies like food, medicine, water and clothing. Acting upon request from Sri Lankan government, INS Darshak and INS Gharial along with Indian Coast Guard ship Shoor swung into action to control fire onboard MV MSC Daniela. INS Dornier helped Maldives to locate and provide assistance to Maldivian Landing Craft which was adrift about 135 nautical miles from Male. Upon request from Papua New Guinea (PNG), Navy deployed Chetak Helicopter to undertake Search and Rescue Operations (SAR) operations of PNG shipping vessel. INS Sarvekshak handed over relief material to government of Mauritius during Cyclone Berguitta in 2018. Consequent to earth-quake and tsunami that hit Indonesia in 2018, India diverted Indian Navy ships of first training squadron with HADR Bricks (relief material) from Singapore.

In June 2018, Indian Navy launched “Operation NISTAR” to rescue 38 Indian Fisherman stranded in Socotra Island when Cyclone Mekuna battered the region. INS Sunayana which is in Western Arabian Sea was pressed into action to rescue them. 

Upon receiving request from Government of Mozambique, to rescue locals affected by Cyclone Idai, India launched “Operation Sahayata” and rushed INS Sujatha, INS Shardul and INS Sarathi to Port of Beira for evacuating people. Indian team commenced liaison work with local authorities, ran sorties, set up medical camps and rendered necessary assistance in March 2019. India was first responder of Cyclone Idai. INS Sumedha which is on an anti-piracy patrol in the Gulf of Aden, provided humanitarian assistance to a stranded Somali vessel in January. Close on heels, massive cyclone Diane hit coast of Madagascar. President Andry Rajoelina declared state of emergency and called for international help on January 25^th. India responded first and diverted INS Airavat, a warship carrying relief and supplies to aid Cyclone-hit country. Prime Minister Christian Ntsay hailed India’s “Operation Vanilla” and sent a handwritten note thanking India for “solidarity and brotherhood” during the crisis. Jaishankar called instant response under SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) is an essential tenet of Modi’s foreign policy.

Mission-ready Deployment

As a part of maritime strategy recalibration, Indian Navy launched new operations plan of “mission-ready deployment” in 2017 tasked with “round the clock, round the year” stationing of warships at vital points in IOR- off the Assumption Island Seychelles, off the Agalega (Mauritius), off the East Coast of Africa, off Southern Sri Lanka, off Bay of Bengal and in the Persian Gulf. These are assisted by naval satellite Rukmini (GSAT-7) and daily sorties of Poseidon P-8I maritime patrol aircraft. The objective behind such dynamic approach is to ensure India’s strategic presence in IOR and prevent frequent forays of the Chinese naval ships and submarines. This has increased Indian Navy’s manoeuvrability, flexibility and increased operational efficiency.

Aside, bolstering SAGAR doctrine, India has firmed up its maritime security cooperation with Vanilla Islands- The Comoros, Mauritius, Seychelles, Reunion Islands, Madagascar, Moyotte which have come together to boost tourism. The term Vanilla is used because these nations are known for the export of flavouring substance Vanilla. Thanks to the provisions of UNCLOS each of these islands with large EEZ, Exclusive Economic Zones, have acquired high strategic importance and now call themselves “Ocean States”. These littorals, highly vulnerable to natural disasters and worst affected by global climatic changes have consciously adopted “blue economy” which is based on the sustainable use and development of ocean resources. Modi has been advocating Blue Economy under the aegis of the SAGAR doctrine.

SAGAR encompasses several aspects- blue economy, sustainable regional development, strong economic and security cooperation, response to climate change, coordinated action towards anti-piracy, trafficking, terrorism, disaster assistance. Through swift mobilisation of resources during humanitarian crisis and natural disasters, India is demonstrating its commitment towards IOR partners. Slowly HADR is emerging as defining feature of India’s maritime security strategy. And Indian Navy is leaving no stone unturned to demonstrate that it cares, substantially harnessing New Delhi’s diplomatic soft power.

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Dissecting Trump’s West Asia Peace Plan

Barely days after the 75^th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, President Trump invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his political contender Benny Gantz to unveil a peace plan for West Asia. Jared Kushner, son-in-law of Trump, in-charge of West Asia affairs is the architect of the plan titled as “Vision for Peace, Prosperity and a Brighter Future”.

Unlike the earlier contingent peace plans which were rolled out to address pertinent flareup of tensions, the hostilities between Israel and Palestine in past one year have been subdued. The timing is the suspect. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu are seeking political gains. With no major foreign policy victory thus far, Trump who is seeking a re-election has invested more hopes on this plan. Similarly, Netanyahu having surrendered immunity and likely to face indictment in three bribery charges gearing up for uphill task of third round of elections on March 2^nd is keen on milking this proposal. Notwithstanding its immense strategic significance, the proposal is reckoned by strategists as a political elixir for both the leaders set to face crucial public verdict.

Political ambitious have virtually shadowed the strategic implications as of now. President Trump, who held wide-ranging talks with Israeli leaders didn’t consult Palestinians before unveiling the plan. Nor did he invite any Palestinian representative to White House while making the plan public. His partisan approach has inadvertently fuelled the popular perception of the deal being overtly Pro-Israeli.

Since 1990, America has been making attempts to mediate between Israel and Palestine. Trump is the fourth American leader after Bill Clinton, Bush and Obama to put forth a peace plan. Plans of Trump’s predecessors invariably hit a roadblock and failed to bring any change in the status quo which has been violence. Palestine overwhelmingly rejected Trump’s two-state solution and recognition of Israeli sovereignty over Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Jordan Valley. Stating that, “All our rights are not for sale and are not for bargain”, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called the plan a conspiracy. He rejected the idea of Palestinian state without Jerusalem. Interestingly, ambassadors from UAE, Oman and Bahrain who attended the unveiling ceremony, tacitly supported Tump’s efforts. Post announcement, Saudi Arabia reiterated “support for all efforts aimed at reaching a just and comprehensive resolution to the Palestinian cause”. Jordan believed that an independent Palestinian state based on pre-1967 boundaries can alone bring peace. UK spoke encouragingly and asked Palestine to genuinely consider the possibility of exploring all options through negotiations. while Germany raised some questions, EU sought to discuss the plan with its members. Palestinian Authority, Turkey, Iran and Yemen opposed plan while Netanyahu called Trump’s plan, “deal of the century” and Israel will not “miss this opportunity”.

As a supporter of Palestinian cause, India stated, “We urge both the parties to engage with each other, including on the recent proposals put forward by the US and find an acceptable two-state solution for peaceful coexistence”.

The proposal claims to double the Palestinian territory. Palestine will get possession of Gaza strip controlled by Hamas. Jerusalem in its entirety will be the capital of Israel which has to work with Jordan to maintain status quo governing holy sites of the place. Israel will stand to control the Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Jordan Valley. It imposes a four-year construction freeze on Israel in areas currently held by Palestine. A governorate at the outskirts of Eastern Jerusalem together with adjoining village Abu Dis to become the capital of state of Palestine. It can be named as Al-Quds which roughly translates to “Holy City”. The new plan proposes to connect the scattered regions around Jerusalem, West Bank and Gaza strip through a network of roads, bridges and tunnels. Israel would control the air space and maintain the state borders. Palestinian Refugees who were displaced during the 1948 will stand to lose their right of return. Entire plan is will subject to implementation after Hamas and other groups give up arms. After the state of Palestine becomes demilitarised and the necessary precondition of disbanding of arms is maintained, Palestinian Authority (PA) will receive the promised $50 billion investment from the US over a period of 10 years. Israel will have to transfer certain regions in the Northern triangle, Negev Desert dominated by Palestinians.

As expected, the PA, Iran, Turkey vehemently disapproved Trump’s plan. Echoing the chorus, former US President, Jimmy Carter denounced Trump’s peace plan stating that it violates international law, undermines self-determination of Palestine and approved of Israel’s annexation of occupied territories by force. 

Trump’s comprehensive plan has tried to address several aspects. But the PA outrightly refused to even consider the plan. After Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and plans of shifting embassy to Jerusalem in 2017, PA severed all ties with America. American has withdrawn its financial assistance to PA and UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) which serves the Palestine Refugees in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Gaza, West Bank and East Jerusalem in September 2018 and USAID funding to projects in Palestine territories in February 2019. America has closed PLO office in Washington in 2018. PA’s relations with America hit rock bottom after Trump signed an order recognising Israel’s annexation of Golan Heights in March 2019. Reversing decades of American foreign policy November 2019, Mike Pompeo announced that Israeli settlements in West Bank don’t violate international law. This rattled the PA and irrevocably damaged its ties with Trump administration. In the light of the Trump’s plan, Palestine snapped all ties with US and Israel including the security cooperation and joint policing of the regions in West Bank under Palestinian control. This might eventually trigger a massive upsurge of terrorism in the region.

Abbas called for urgent meeting of the foreign ministers of Arab League at Cairo. Contending that the plan fails to meet the aspirations of Palestinians, Arab League refused to cooperate with the US. Upon Palestine’s request, the 57-member body Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), second largest intergovernmental organisation after the UN, met on Monday and called on members “to not to engage with the US administration in implementing it (the plan) in any form”.  Even EU foreign policy chief, Joseph Borrell opined, “To build just and lasting peace, the unresolved final status issues must be decided through direct negotiations between both parties”. The plan is slated for a discussion at UNSC on Feb 11^th. Kushner is learnt to be briefing the UNSC ambassadors about the Vision ahead of the meet.

There are several practical difficulties in the implementation of Trump’s plan. Topmost among them has been the convoluted map of the proposed Palestine state which doesn’t have contiguous boundary. Scattered regions interspersed with the Israeli territory and littered randomly makes the task of securing sovereignty a formidable task. Numerous divisions of the geographical area would lead to crumbling of state with the eventual threat of the absorption of these smaller regions into the bigger territory. This will be an assault on the basic concept of the sovereignty of the envisioned State of Palestine. Trump’s plan proposes to connect these regions through network of bridges. But its practical feasibility among other aspects seems rather difficult underscoring the partisan nature of the plan.

But going by the history of the Israel-Palestine conflict, ever since Palestine refused the UN’s initial partition plan in 1947, it started losing more of its territory. After every major escalation, Palestine’s hold over its territory began to shrink. 1993 Oslo Accord offered an immense promise of resolving the longstanding hostilities between two parties including carving of a new Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Even then Palestine didn’t approvingly embrace the deal. Yizhatik Rabin’s assassination in 1995 impeded the peace process. Later Camp Davis talks negotiated by Bill Clinton in 2000 between Ehud Barak and Yasser Arafat inched closed to deal. Indeed, the proposal included establishment of demilitarised Palestinian state over 92% region in West Bank, 100% West Bank, dismantling of Jewish settlements in West Bank, compensation for pre-1967 territorial losses, return of Palestinian refugees to future Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and custodianship over the Temple Mount. Proposal offered massive financial aid towards rehabilitation of Palestinian refugees. But Arafat’s refused. This led to intifada, two decades of unrest and chaos in the region.

Israel and Egypt inked peace treaty and ended hostilities in 1979. Notably Egypt even became first Arab country to recognise Israel as a state. Similarly, Israel and Jordan clinched a landmark 1994 peace deal ending all conflicts. In 2000, Israel offered to sign treaty with Syria to return Golan Heights but the latter refused paving way for American administration endorsement of Israeli sovereignty last year.

Over the years, Israel has evolved into a stable democratic regime steadily enhancing its economic and diplomatic clout. Israel is no longer a pariah state. Arab states and Muslim countries are forthcoming in their approach towards Israel. On the other hand, vicious infighting, poor governance, repressive leadership of PA bereft of committed approach to fulfil the aspirations of Palestinians failed to make any significant progress. Cynical leadership of the PA and the Hamas controlling the Gaza never evinced any interest in dismantling the terrorist militia. Despite decades of hardships and hostilities PA refuses to comprehend the futility of protracted conflicts. Palestine statehood in no longer the top most priority of Arab World bogged down by security challenges. Israeli-Palestinian interminable conflict has destabilised the region and denied the people an opportunity to live in peace. Among the many devastating fall outs of the colonialism, this conflict stands out as the most intractable one. It has been close to a century and attempts are still on to resolve the conflict.

While Trump’s plan has abject implementation challenges, it attempts to offer a solution. Instead of completely jettisoning the effort with a curt dismissal, Palestine should use this opportunity to realise their dream of statehood. With an eternal “No” Palestine is denying peace a chance. Palestine believes that Israel, “has no right to exist, and seeks its demise”.  Their fervent refusals for a peace deal and rejection of legitimacy of Israel reiterates the same..