Modi’s audacious air strikes bolstered his image as a decisive leader

This huge electorate victory with improved mandate has reiterated peoples trust in the leadership of Prime Minister whose resounding popularity is intact and growing with every passing day. Often times, elections are fought on the core issues of poverty alleviation, inflation, farmers suicides, unemployment, electricity and infrastructure development. An incumbent government’s return to power is entirely dependent on its impactful governance.

In 2014, Modi stormed to power with absolute majority on the promise of steering the country towards higher realms. As a leader of country of 1.3 billion, in his first tenure Modi made relentless efforts and displayed spirited conviction to take up new challenges for a better and brighter future of the country. Irrespective of the consequences his stead-fast approach and the determination to face the challenges have increased his popularity. Consequently, every challenge undertaken and a mission accomplished was closely watched and analysed by the people who made their own assessments. While high-nigh analysts fretted and fumed at Modi government’s inability to create jobs and pilloried him for demonetisation and hiccups in GST, people reposed faith in him. Brushing away the bombastic editorials aflush with high-sounding indicators divested of ground realities, people began to take stock of issues that mattered to them the most. The hue and cry over orchestrated campaign of burgeoning polarisation, and intolerance utterly failed in dissuading people.

While the economic reforms initiated are yet to yield outcomes, issues of national security, sovereignty, terrorism, threat of a plausible two-front war turned into central theme of elections. Soon enough credentials of the government on national security and foreign policy began to dominate the election narrative. In tune with the aspirations of the Indians settled across the globe, on his state visits, Modi revitalised connect with India diaspora and invoked a pride towards motherland. These renewed efforts to reshape India’s identity among resident Indians and Indians abroad generated a nationalistic outlook. Modi’s strategic diaspora connect together with his unprecedented outreach evoked new interest towards India’s emerging role in global affairs.

Modi galvanised India’s foreign policy shedding the diffidence and indecisiveness that throttled India’s global rise. Epitomising India’s role as a responsible player in the region, Modi revved up India’s engagement with its immediate and extended neighbourhood and revitalised ties with ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Countries) countries. By reviving BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Economic and Regional Cooperation), IONS (Indian Ocean Naval Symposium), IORA (India Ocean Rim Association) Modi reinforced New Delhi’s role of principal security provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Indeed, last five years, India conducted joint exercises with all the P5 nations which vouches for India’s improved maritime cooperation. Besides, as a good will gesture Indian Navy participated in several rescue operations. Giving massive fillip to Link West and Connect Central Asia, Modi transformed India’s relationships with Middle East, Africa and European countries. Reconfiguring India’s responses to global issues like terrorism, climate change, black money and tax havens at the international forums like G-20 and United Nations Modi effectively changed global perception towards India. Through eloquent promotion of India’s core values like vasudaivakutumbakam (World is one family), integral to India’s civilisation and elevation of Indic knowledge system Yoga Modi enhanced India’s global image. In the process, Modi managed to draw the attention of World’s attention to India’s troubling issues like terrorism. Modi indeed, maintained a fine balance of cooperation and countering the Middle Kingdom by taking an active part in SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and Quad. While stepping up engagement and economic ties, India stalled the belligerent attempts of Chinese aggressive transgression across LAC (Line of Actual Control). India’s amicable resolution of the 73-day long standoff with China at Doklam holds a testimony to Modi government’s adept diplomacy.

The World gave up on India encumbered by indecisiveness and policy paralysis during the decade long UPA rule. Through confident assertion of India’s aspirations at various global platforms and by taking a lead the climate change Modi single-handedly recovered India’s lost ground. India is now widely recognised for its potential like investment opportunities, growing middle class, demographic dividend and fast economic growth.

Over past seven decades, India’s troubled relationship with Pakistan turned out be an Achilles heel unworthy of New Delhi’s strategic patience. India’s time tested “blow hot blow cold” has ended up emboldening the deep state at Rawalpindi. Despite being at the receiving end of Pakistan’s asymmetric warfare international community often persuaded India to refrain from escalating the rivalry. India was dissuaded from giving a befitting reply to Islamabad’s repeated provocations. Detesting tactical reticence, Modi embarked on the path of retribution of “operation hot pursuit”. The 2015 surgical strikes in response to dastardly terrorist along the Myanmar border and destruction of terrorist camps Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) in the aftermath of the Uri attack in 2016 has revived the spirits of security forces and Indian public alike. Marshalling diplomatic corps, Modi government managed to diplomatically isolate Pakistan and called the bluff of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold. Undeterred by repeated attempts of China to defend Pakistan at international platforms, Modi government rallied the world to support India’s war against terrorism perpetrated by the mothership of terror, Pakistan. 

Modi government’s audacious aerial strikes on the terror camps in Balakot, Muzaffarabad and Chakoti in response to Pulwama attacks struck right notes with the Indian public that lamented India’s reluctance to retaliate. With months to elections, Modi’s swift use of force established BJP’s preferential priority towards national security. Even as nation welcomed Modi’s decision, opposition undermined air strikes, eulogised the largesse of Pakistan for returning captured wing commander and portrayed Modi as an aggressor. People disapproved opposition’s narrative and detested debates on the ineluctable issue of national security. India has been a victim of terror and Modi’s strategic decision of zero tolerance towards terrorism resonated well with concerns of burgeoning terrorism. Opposition even discredited Modi for his bold actions and attempted to undermine the political decision of the incumbent government’s robust response. Given electorate’s overwhelming approval for surgical strikes as a last-ditch attempt to garner some political mileage Congress party hurriedly announced execution of six surgical strikes during UPA regime. After retired officials challenged the veracity its claims and quashed these attacks which don’t qualify to be surgical strikes, opposition lost its face. While it is disingenuous to subject national security issues to debates and political contestations, Modi government deserves credit for its bold political decision that accrued strategical benefits to India.

In democracies, national security issues have always been the top of the agenda in elections. This new trend of judging the political parties for national security credentials prevalent in Israel is now shaping up in India. Burgeoning geopolitical contestation in the rapidly changing world order and shifting the political narratives to the right. Increased assertiveness towards national identity across the globe turned discussions on nationalism and national security issues a norm. This global shift is in line with ideology of BJP which is unapologetic about its nationalistic credentials.

In the past five years, Modi enhanced India’s global visibility, adeptly maintained ties with rival countries like the US and Russia, Israel and Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Iran and unveiled an era of fine-diplomatic balancing. Modi unveiled a new strategic engagement with Japan and America through “JAI” (Japan, America and India) and emphatically engaged with Russia and China through “RIC” (Russia China and India). Modi at the helm of affairs, shredded India’s “soft state” approach with an aggressive military action coupled with posturing. BJP’s surge in popularity in opinion polls post-Balakot attacks suffice to say that national security credentials have elevated its political fortunes. 

The panoply of recognitions and highest civilian awards conferred on Modi by governments of Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, South Korea, Russia, Palestine and the UN signalled the arrival of India on the global stage. In March, India successfully tested ASAT (Anti-Satellite) Missile joining the elite group of military space power comprising of the US, Russia and China. To enhance national security and as credible deterrence to India’s growing space assets, unlike his predecessors who baulked, fearing international condemnation, Modi approved the “Operation Shakti”. In May, China withdrew technical hold to proscribe Pakistani terrorist Masood Azhar at the UNSC after decade-long India’s persuasive diplomacy. This iconic diplomatic milestone epitomised the ascendancy of Modi’s foreign policy doctrine. Modi’s proactive foreign policy coupled with economic reforms and corruption-free governance instrumental in attracting FDI, improvement in ease of doing business have laid foundation for changing the developmental contours of the country.

Modi’s proactive engagement and pragmatic diplomacy has elevated India’s global stature and infused a new optimism. His gutsy leadership gave wings to the upward aspirations of young India eagerly waiting to reclaim its space in the global arena. During his first tenure with his characteristic out-of-the box initiatives Modi ardently engaged with global powers, traditional partners and energised India’s strategic ties. Steering clear of traditional idealism and ambivalence, Modi’s foreign policy guided by national interests made a formidable beginning. Changing world order and dynamic geopolitical calculus demand an imaginative diplomacy. Having positioned India as a dynamic global players Modi raised the bar for India. To accelerate India’s global ascent Prime Minister Modi must now effectively sustain the momentum and retain the focus on his foreign policy doctrine.

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The 2019 general elections mark a new beginning

BJP created history by becoming the first non-Congress party to return to power with a thumping majority in 2019 elections. In interviews to various media outlets both Prime Minister Modi and party President Amit Shah repeatedly reiterated that BJP would be back in power with a better and bigger mandate. While liberante dismissed it as hubris, opposition mocked them. Ground beneath the entitled class began to slip after exit polls that unanimously predicted a resounding victory for Modi. Much to the ignominy of the opposition who were hitching plans to pose hurdles in this largest democratic exercise, Modi emerged victorious with stupendous mandate. Modi’s resplendent victory of is a firm endorsement to his style of governance and functioning. Overwhelming public support and a subterranean Modi undercurrent has positioned BJP in the pole position. Modi’s stellar victory has become a case study for political pundits who are really astounded by the scale and margins of the wins.

General elections of 2019 will go down in Indian political history as the largest democratic exercise which wasn’t fought on any issues like corruption and price rise. Unlike in 2014, when corruption was the major poll plank, the wobbly opportunistic political parties who presented themselves as potential alternative had a single point agenda of removing Modi. They ridiculed aspirations of the Indians by further muddying the festival of democracy with vituperative personal attacks, name calling and political mudslinging. The political discourses of the opposition leaders fell short of the expectations of the rising middle class who are no longer enthused by the freebies, subsidies or loan waivers.

Amidst this crass politicisation of every aspect of governance, Modi’s promise of strong and stable India offered a ray of hope. While loyalists of dynasty churned fake news to create panic, Indian masses who cherished the first term of Modi which was free of corruption, religious riots, terror attacks simply ignored them. The orchestrated backlash and fabrication of polarisation hardly bothered them. On the contrary by ensuring last mile coverage of the initiatives in the last five years Modi government has won the hearts of the people. By keeping his ear to the ground, seeking inputs through various local circles and communicating through Mann ki baat, Modi earned the trust of the people. Through his relentless efforts, commitment to deliver and conviction to make a difference in lives of people Modi earned their trust. This was one singular reason why people willingly endured inconveniences during demonetisation and hiccups of the GST. Trust is like a double-edged knife, where people rationalise missteps of leader but harbour high expectations. This unstinted faith of people propelled Modi to take bold decisions. The audacious surgical & retributive air strikes and the ability to take risks posited him as a decisive leader. Modi’s vision resonated with the aspirations of the Indian youth rearing to reclaim global space in 21^st century. People who were satisfied by his policies and reforms fought the electoral battle for Modi and voted him back to power for promising a strong, stable India.

Congress party dominated politics of independent India for majority of the time but their ideology hardly found congruence with the life style of common man. Since ascension to power, Modi symbolised hope. He represented an ideology which inspired common man, ignited fresh hopes and widened their horizons. Clearly, a Modi undercurrent has subsumed the flood of pessimistic portrayal Modi’s first term.

The stupendous margins, stellar victories of individuals from humble origins and rout of several dynasts in these elections signalled strategic shift in choices exercised by individuals. People rejected politics of entitlement. BJP swept the polls in 14 states with over 50% vote share illustrating an overriding consolidation of support from people belonging to different caste, creed, religion and language. This kind of voting pattern comprehensively marked the end of identity politics along the narrow sectarian lines. While these elections are replete of stories of amazing grit and determination. Reverberations of some epic battles are bound to be felt for times to come. The defeat of Rahul Gandhi from family’s traditional bastion Amethi at the hands of Smriti Irani, “the giant slayer” epitomised the triumph of hard work, grit and dedication. The win will be remembered for the valiant efforts and the obvious message of nothing is impossible to the young and aspiring.

Similarly, the humiliating defeat of Digvijay Singh who coined and perpetuated fake Hindu terror theory with a margin of over 3 lakh votes against Sadhvi Pragyna from signified the victory of dharma and debacle of politics of polarisation. Resurgence of BJP in Southern states of Karnataka, Telangana sounded a death knell to the hypothetical “North-South Divide” theory. Embrassing electoral losses of influential proponents and supporters of tukde-tukde gang signified staggering rejection of the secessionist ideology. Clearly there is a rebirth of nationalism and Indian electorate is intolerant towards any attempt aimed at dividing India.

In short, the 2019 elections, akin to a silent revolution, albeit without arms, symbolised triumph of democracy where people used their most powerful weapon-universal adult franchise to make clear choices. These choices which defined the idea of New India, heralded the beginning of a new era where minoritarianism and the façade of secularism can no longer ensure a win in elections. The feudalistic style of functioning is rebuffed. Having witnessed the chaos and policy paralysis of coalition governments, people shunned parties that stitched coalitions for convenience and handed over the baton to a leader who they trusted would lead them to path of success, glory, development and prosperity. Marching forward with BJP’s guiding principle of “antyodaya” Modi brought about a huge difference in the lives of millions of Indians, whose lives were untouched by fruits of development since independence. By gaining trust, he evolved as a phenomenon. The silent renaissance, which people unleashed on this nation is poised to usher the nation into 21^st century.

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Escalating US and China trade tensions pose a systemic geostrategic challenge

In his Presidential campaign Trump took strong objections to America’s burgeoning trade deficit with China saying, “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country and that’s what they are doing. It is the greatest theft in the history of the World”. But after taking over as President underscoring the significance of strong US-China ties, hosts President Xi at Mar-a-Lago, Florida estate where both leaders agree to set up a 100-Day Action Plan sort out trade differences. As a conciliatory move, sides reach a trade agreement whereby US gained more access to China’s agriculture, energy and financial markets and reciprocally China was allowed to sell cooked poultry to the US. Simultaneously, USTR start investigations into the trade practices, intellectual rights, transfer of technology, steel and aluminium imports. 

By March 2018, Trump signs a memorandum on intellectual property rights restricting Chinese investments into technology sector, imposing tariffs on specific Chinese products to protect the domestic manufacturing and taking China to task for its discriminatory trade practices at WTO. Prior to signing memoranda on IPR, Trump unleashes “global safeguard tariffs” on steel and aluminium imports from different countries ushering America into an era of protectionism. In April China slaps 25% tariff on 106 US products which include Soybeans, automobiles and Chemicals. In the next fortnight America announces seven-year ban on the Chinese Telecom company ZTE for violating US sanctions. Losing no time, China imposes anti-dumping duties on US Sorghum imports. Amidst these retaliatory tariffs, countries hold trade talks where America demands China to reduce the $200 billion trade deficit within two years. After Trump retracts ban on ZTE and China withdraws duties on Sorghum. After China agrees to buy more US products countries temporarily agree to put a hold on tariff war.

But within a week both countries reinstate 25% tariffs, on specific list of products, subsequently US levy 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth Chinese goods. Showing no signs of bowing down, US increases the tariffs to 25%. By mid-August China lodges a complaint against US in WTO. Unmoved by China’s second complaint to WTO, Trump threatens to impose tariffs on $517 billion worth of goods forcing China to the negotiating table. With both parties unwilling to reach an agreement, they roll out third round of tariffs in September. For the first time, in October representatives from both countries resume telephonic conversations. Finally, at a working dinner in G-20 Summit meet, countries agree to stop levying fresh tariffs for a period of 90 days.

From January to March, countries held trade talks and Trump even extended tariff deadline. As a good will gesture President Xi met US trade representatives in Beijing and banned export of few strains of Fentanyl. After talks with Chinese officials on May 1^st Steve Mnuchin announces that talks are “productive”. But by May 5^th a diplomatic cable of 150-pages draft with numerous edits arrives in Washington where China reneges on its commitments reached in trade deal. The final document resonated Chinese reluctance to address the core issues that plagued the bilateral trade like transfer of technology, heavy subsidies to SOEs (State-Owned Enterprises), intellectual rights, currency manipulation and access to financial services and insurance sector. Miffed by China’s eleventh hour’s manipulations in the trade agreement, Trump called for restitution of tariff regime and tariff rise from existing 10% to 25% on $200 billion Chinese imports.

USTR Robert Lighthizer, who headed US delegations took serious note of China’s effortless backtracking, mocked its “empty reform promise”. He called for enforcement of punitive tariff regime on China to bring about legally binding changes in its laws to ensure long term implementation of the trade deals. Toughening his stance Donald Trump tweeted “I say openly to President Xi and all of my many friends in China that China will be hurt very badly if you do not make deal because companies will be forced to leave China for other countries. Too expensive to buy in China. You had a great deal, almost completed and you backed out.” With much of 30% of trade treaty edited at the last moment, the intractable differences over Chinese subsidies, still unaddressed, talks are halted.

On Sunday China announced 25% tariffs on $60 billion US imports with effect from June 1^st and threatened qualitative measures severely hindering American business operations in China. So far, US levied tariffs on $250 billion Chinese imports and $110 billion US imports are subjected to Chinese tariffs. With this, China can levy tariffs on additional $10 billion, while America have a greater leverage over China as it can threaten tariffs on additional $300 billion. With China failing the limit state subsidies, US is mulling revision of its laws related to foreign investment and export of high-tech goods.

During the trade talks, government restrained hawkish Chinese media. After Trump’s tweet, “buyers of the product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal) or buy from non-tariffed countries”. Chinese officials hit back at the US saying, “China has not only the determination and capability but willingness to fight a prolonged war”. Invoking nationalistic spirit and to chide away Chinese critics who resented an extended trade war China upped the trade war rhetoric. On Tuesday Xinhua News Agency and People’s Daily accused US of “greed and arrogance” and termed mounting trade tensions as “People’s War”- the war cry of Mao Zedong against Japan. The editorial without naming Trump added, “the trade war in the United States is strongly advocated by one person and one team”. Amplifying this message, the state broadcasting service termed this as “fight for a new world” and that “there is nothing new we haven’t seen before”. Social media reiterated “the Chinese economy is a sea, not a small pond. A rainstorm can destroy a small pond but it cannot harm a sea. After numerous storms, the sea is still there”.

Trade war between the two largest economies is bound to have global impact. After a marginal recovery during the truce period, industrial activity in both countries tanked in April just before trade talks. Economists estimate that higher tariffs might cause 0.4 to 0.5% slide in China’s GDP and while US will experience 0.1% cut in GDP. Global GDP might register a 0.15% slump. Stock markets in both countries and across the globe have witnessed steady decline. While Trump is jubilant over accelerated growth rate of 3.2 in the first quarter, he is betting on the rate cut from the Federal Bank to ease pressure on the economy. Similarly, Chinese companies are rallying on anticipation of a fiscal and financial stimulus package. The first round of tariffs as of now didn’t have much impact on US but economists believe that American consumers might start feeling heat of next round of tariff because of difficulties in outsourcing goods from other countries. Nearly all growth indicators of Chinese economy have fallen and this is bound to have an impact on the slowing Chinese economy which is expected to grow at 6%.

The real bone of contention in the ongoing trade deal is Chinese subsidies. Determined to have an edge over America in high-technology manufacturing Chinese government in 2015 launched the grand “Made in China 2025” and identified ten crucial sectors. These include- telecommunications, electric cars, artificial intelligence, information technology, aerospace engineering, synthetic materials, bio-medicine, rail infrastructure, high-tech marine engineering and advanced electronic equipment. To emerge as global leader in technology, China is planning to pump in $300 billion. China’s aggressive push towards promoting Huawei as the global leader of 5G technology is test case of state-sponsored promotion of telecommunication industry. After Chinese officials informed that they can’t amend their laws which included curbs on industrial subsidies, US hardened its stance.

At the time of writing, intensifying trade war, President Trump signed an executive order banning Chinese telecommunication giant Huawei and other foreign companies from doing business in America citing national security reasons. Officials privy to these developments said that Trump signed the order prepared months ago. Huawei is placed in entity list blocking its from buying IT products from American companies. This order has created ripples in global telecommunications industry with EU worried about the plausibility of secondary sanctions in its companies as well. While the details of the order are not made public, it gives commerce department 150 days to frame regulations but markets are rattled. Chinese Foreign Ministry lashed out against Trump’s order as “an industrial sabotage”. Though China hasn’t announced retaliatory measures immediately, it is expected blacklist any American company as a message to the US.

China’s reluctance to cede ground to America in terms of ending industrial subsidies, low interest loans and tax holiday to exporting companies fearing domestic backlash has paved way for intensification of trade war. Though Trump sounded optimistic and expressed his keenness to meet President Xi along the side-lines of G-20 summit by the end of June at Osaka, blacklisting of Huawei is an attempt to arm twist Beijing.

Besides, the economic and technological war, by wading through the strategic waters of Taiwan Strait, America is taking China head on. Since 2018 America’s policy towards China transitioned from “strategic cooperation to strategic competition”.  Strategists even signalled arrival of an era of “great power rivalry”. Indeed, the Sino-US relations till date symbolise coming together of nations whose ideologies diametrically divergent. Baring the critical and sparing congruence in economic policies, both countries are poles apart. The engagement which is now more than four decades old is devoid of trust and characteristically replete of suspicion and animosity. The common binding force of the Sino-US relations has been a threat from Russia. After Russia ceased to be a potent force, China refused to give way to America’s ambitions of being the lone super power. America’s refusal to cede world hegemony and acceptance of emergence of multipolar world heightened China’s fears. Soon both countries began to consider each as a “regime security” dilemma. Indeed, China’s deep-rooted suspicions of America’s intentions has been the guiding force behind PLA’s accelerated development of “New-Type Technology Weapons Plan” or the “995 Plan”. Development of the anti-ship ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles have integral to the plan. 995 signifies American bombing of China’s Belgrade Embassy over reports of Beijing assisting the Yugoslavia government in May 1999. Middle Kingdom which is unforgiving of its historical sufferings have renamed its advanced weapons development program as reminder of American attack. Ever since President Xi’s take over China made no secret about its ambitions of becoming a global superpower after its phenomenal success on economic front.

Notwithstanding the totalitarian policies of China, America maintained strong economic anticipating a libertarian outlook from Beijing. But the asymmetric trade practices of China and the mercantilist style of operation of China through the Belt and Road Initiatives have strengthened fears of Western World. Unlike free economies, China has fashioned and instituted BRI to offload its excess production and manufacturing. With its eventual rise and attempts to seek economic, trade, technological and military parity with America, Beijing is contesting the post-cold war era dominated by US. The eventual metamorphosis of economic symbionts into potential (implacable) adversaries’ is primed to lead to a tumultuous phase in geopolitics. This latitude of massive rejig in world order offers immense strategic opportunities for New Delhi.

The time line of trade tariff war is sourced from: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a-timeline/

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Are the vituperative attacks signs of a jittery opposition?

With two phases of elections still remaining, news emerges that 21-opposition parties have intensified talks to form a coalition government. Major political parties of India, baring BJP and its allies are planning to meet on May 21^st two days before the final electoral verdict to consolidate the plans of forming an “Anti-Modi” bloc as a last-ditch attempt to stop the Modi-Shah juggernaut. Even before commencement of elections, it was clear that Modi is fighting General Elections-2019 against no credible alternative. Now given, the quality of the political narrative it is amply clear that having failed in donning the role of responsible opposition, political parties have left the electorate of the country with no credible choice. In the absence of constructive debates resonating the aspiration of the youth, election battle has turned into an empty rhetorical war of narratives.

After the Supreme Court dismissed opposition’s plea to review the order on VVPAT counting, leaders of 21-parties are learnt to have closed ranks to form a united front. There has been a sudden spurt in the political activity with leaders of the regional parties Chandrababu Naidu of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and K Chandra Sekhar Rao of Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) taking the lead to create a cohesive coalition even before the D-Day of May 23^rd. Responding to a question after the SC’s verdict on EVMs, Naidu reiterated that due to political compulsions, parties are forced to bury their differences. He hinted that there would be no third front or federal front but a united opposition or an anti-Modi front. NDTV reported that the opposition parties are planning to meet the President after May 19^th to urge him not to call the single largest party for government formation if it fails to get absolute majority on its own. The opposition is readying letters of support to form an alternative government. Defending their move citing the developments in recent state assembly elections, opposition is preparing ground for keeping BJP out of the power. The desperation writ large on the faces of opposition leaders even before completion of poll process is palpable. With these elaborate plans and intense parleys, the opposition appears to be getting ready for an electoral drubbing.

Last year at the swearing in ceremony of Karnataka Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy, marking the coming together of Congress and JD (S) in the state, opposition leaders put up a show of unity against the BJP. A galaxy of leaders stole the thunder of the occasion by embracing each other heralding the formation of a supposed “Mahaghatbandhan” to stall BJP’s electoral run. Leaders of the regional parties urged others to come together to form a united federal front. The inaugural united front included Congress and other regional parties. After parting ways with NDA, Naidu setting aside political animosities, joined hands with Congress and contested in the Telangana elections. While the “Mahakutami” or united coalition with regional parties performed abysmally, Congress managed to crack the electoral code in the assembly elections of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

This positive outcome in the Hindi heartland injected fresh energy into the Congress cadres. But this has critically altered the electoral calculus between the opposition parties. Boosted by the major wins in the state elections Congress wanted to extract its pound of flesh and other parties refused to oblige. Indeed, by December last year, political pundits announced the resurgence of Congress. Surveys claimed that Congress popularity has reached its peak. Congress which is in the position of strength remained averse to any coalition. Even regional parties hardly reposed any faith the party led by the dynast Rahul Gandhi. Interestingly, while the political parties opposed BJP tooth and nail, multiple contenders for the Prime Ministerial position within the coalition emerged as the major bottle neck to churn out a workable coalition. Without losing much time, SP and BSP immediately clinched alliance in three states-Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh leaving Congress to fend for itself. Much touted opposition coalition almost crumbled.

By January, surveys soon ruled out possibility of BJP returning to power after it lost three assembly elections. Undeterred by the outcomes of the elections BJP began preparation for the upcoming general elections. NDA government rolled out a friendly budget, slashed GST on certain category of products, reservations to economically weaker sections, unveiled direct cash transfer to farmers through the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi. Meanwhile, the benefits of universal health care, Ayushman Bhava project launched in October began to percolate to the lower rungs of the society. By raising the tax slab, NDA addressed the apathy of the middle-class. Unlike the state assemblies where poll plank is dominated by local issues and drive of local leadership, beneficiaries of NDA government’s initiatives strongly rallied behind Modi. Support for NDA has been intact. Surveys and analysts have indeed erred in extrapolating the results of assembly elections to national scenario. On the contrary, the much-hyped opposition unity began to weather. Regional parties and allies began to desert Congress led by Rahul Gandhi.

Eventually by February, opposition’s reluctance to name and shame Pakistan for the dastardly Pulwama attacks cast an indelible impression on the minds of the people. Notwithstanding, the international support for India’s right to self-defence after the Balakot strikes, opposition demanded proof of airstrikes by IAF. Also, an avalanche of attacks on the Prime Minister for escalating the tensions after the capture of Indian wing commander while outrightly endorsing the Pakistan’s devious approach has confounded the masses. Political animosities aside, Indians became wary of the leaderships which failed to express solidarity with the government in the hour of grave national threat. Though intellectuals would like to dissect Pulwama issue by reducing the endorsement of Balakot terror strikes as “ultimate patriotism test”. In simple terms, post-Pulwama episode is all about entire nation coming together and sending out a message to perpetrators of terror in unison. Clearly with a forthright approach towards terror and reiterating his commitment towards building a strong a stable India, Modi has unequivocally stated his position. With his decisive action and resilience in the face of external conflict Modi earned the confidence of people.  Opposition dithered and frittered an opportunity to assert their commitment towards nation.

In the run up to the elections, opposition parties irrespective of their ideologies forged coalitions of convenience. Staunch enemies turned into political allies overnight. None of these coalitions or political understandings bothered to evolve a common minimum program geared up for elections with a single point agenda of defeating Modi. For the three past decades, India had coalition governments. Electorate well-versed with compulsions of the coalition government and the prospect of instability always lurking in the corner have always been sceptical about these dubious political alliances. Besides, the absence of a putative Prime Ministerial candidate exacerbated worst fears about the performance, stability of this kind of khicidi sarkars.

Accentuating these apprehensions, the opposition instead of issue based political debates overpowered by a sense of entitlement and arrogance began to pass off-cuff remarks against the Prime Minister. People began to detest the opposition’s frivolous war of words and name calling which exposed their shallow political acumen. Even their election manifestos failed to chart out a vibrant vision for the nation. Opposition parties clamouring for power failed to come with constructive agenda for ushering the country into a new era. Even in the 21^st century, the fourth-generation dynast of Congress party, underpinned his idea of India with special focus on “garibi hatao”, which has been its poll mantra since 1960s under the new name NYAY. The only aspect, where parties out competed each other is in doling out freebies and extending subsidies. In sharp contrast, BJP released a “Resolution document” (Sankalp Patra) which resonated with the aspirations of India’s new generation. The manifesto which enumerated 75 goals is applicable till 2022 which marks the 75 years of India’s independence. Outlining a clear frame work, BJP promised to lay a firm foundation for India’s development towards 2047, the centenary year of Independence. 

At a time when India is starring at the two and half front battle and unabated terror attacks in Kashmir valley, Congress party the principal opposition undermined the national security. It promised to reduce deployment of forces in Kashmir valley AFSPA, repeal the sedition laws under the garb of right to dissent. As elections neared the political discourse touched new lows. Unrelenting mudslinging, hurling volley of abuses and wilful denigration have been the highlights of the election campaigning so far. Political narrative has plummeted to such a low level that President of Congress party, Rahul Gandhi was forced to tender an unconditional apology for misquoting the Supreme Court judgement and wilfully propagating lies after inviting the wrath of CJI in his third affidavit.

During various phases of elections, not even a single issue of national relevance was seriously debated. The entire election campaigning is replete of malicious personal attacks. Aside the contemptuous slanderous personal attacks against Modi, Mamata Banerjee by refusing to accept the constitutional position of Prime Minister displayed her visceral hatred towards Modi. By disapproving and insulting a democratically elected leader, Banerjee displayed her despotic tendencies. In line with his trend of malicious campaigning, Rahul Gandhi is an interview with India Today admitted that he wants to tarnish to image of Prime Minister. The unabated volley of abusive appellations against Prime Minister media by all and sundry is a testament to the defeatist attitude of the opposition. Instead of pulling up ruling dispensation for the unfulfilled promises if any and seeking account of the developmental work and benefits accrued to people during their tenure, opposition has resorted to the hostile name calling. In the process it has reduced the largest democratic exercise into a show of entitlement and arrogance.

While a supremely confident Modi and Amit Shah in their dozens of interviews confidently announced that NDA will come back to power with bigger mandate, opposition leaders are busy evolving alternate plans to stall the BJP by all means. If this is not desperation what is. Having exhausted every trick in the book, the opposition is resorting to lowly abusive attacks.

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Designation of Masood Azhar as a Global Terrorist is testimony to India’s rising global stature

On May 1^st UNSC 1267 ISIL (Daesh) and Al-Qaeda Sanctions committee proscribed JeM (Jaish-e-Mohammed) chief, and master mind of Pulwama attacks Mohammed Masood Azhar Alvi. This brings down the curtain on a decade-long India’s dogged diplomatic efforts to black list Azhar. This diplomatic effort is no mean effort and holds testament to India’s diplomacy of persistence. Ironically while JeM, was listed just days after the suicide bomb attack on the Jammu and Kashmir legislative building on October 17^th 2001, the key architect Azad escaped sanctions. After the 26/11 strikes India submitted resolution to the sanctions committee seeking a ban on Azhar in 2009. But ever since China frustrated India’s efforts by imposing a technical hold seeking further time and more evidence. It blocked the proposal to blacklist Azhar in March 2016 and extended it to October 2016 and November 2017. After the dastardly Pulwama attacks, when the nuclear powers of the subcontinent, India and Pakistan were at the brink of the war on March 13^th, US, UK and France moved a proposal to ban Azhar of JeM which claimed responsibility for Pulwama attacks. China once again scuttled these attempts in favour of “all weather friend”. This hold delayed the decision by six months. India expressed disappointment but it hasn’t castigated and directly named China in the official statement.

To call the bluff of China, which has been shielding Pakistan and its strategic asset, Azhar. On March 28^th, P3 members led by France and supported by the US and UK circulated a draft to the UNSC to blacklist Azhar. Miffed by China’s roadblock, P3 members have decided to sought the intervention of UNSC. With the issue now in the jurisdiction of UNSC, China’s stand in terrorism has come under scrutiny. The US in the meanwhile intensified pressure on China to act. But China hit back at the US “for threatening to use all resources at its behest to designate Azhar as a global terrorist”. While the whole process has been unfolding over ground, behind the curtains, India has intensified its diplomatic parleys. On April 17^th, Chinese foreign minister spokesperson said, “On the issue of listing of Masood Azhar, China’s position remains unchanged. We are also in communication with relevant parties and the matter is moving towards the direction of settlement”. He added, “This issue should be resolved through cooperation and we don’t believe that any efforts without consensus of most of the members will achieve satisfying results”.

On April 22^nd, days before the inauguration of second BRF (Belt and Road Forum) Indian Foreign secretary, Vijay Gokhale travelled to Beijing. He held consultations with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister, Kong Xuanyou and shared the details of the terrorist activities of JeM and met Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi. Delinking Masood Azhar issue with India’s bilateral ties with China, India participated in the International Fleet Review at Qingdao reposing faith in seeking good relations and cooperation with China. Interestingly, Pakistan was conspicuous by its absence. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman met Chinese Defence Minister at the SCO Defence Minister’s Meet in Bishkek. After US announced that it will no longer extend the waiver given to eight countries on Oil imports from Iran, news of India and China getting ready to form Oil buyers club surfaced.  Adhering to the spirit of Wuhan, India kept the doors of cooperation open for China. In the process, China was compelled to to prioritise its bilateral ties with India over “all weather friendship” with Pakistan. With global pressure building up and all nations in UNSC extending unequivocal support to India, Beijing was forced to take a call. Beijing’s refrainment from raising any objections after the deadline for “silent period” on May 1^st surprised the international community in general and India in particular.

Relenting to international pressure, China foreign ministry stated, “after careful study of revised materials and taking into consideration the opinions of relevant parties concerned, China doesn’t have objection to the listing proposal”. For long, China used Azhar’s issue as a bargaining chip in their negotiations with India. But the burgeoning infamy of the Pakistan’s terror operatives and their brutal attacks has always raised disquiet among nations. Azhar issue became albatross around China’s neck especially after Pulwama attack. China’s repeated technical holds began to weigh down its international reputation. Indonesia, the chairman of the UNSC 1267 committee formally made the designation and France, President of the UNSC forwarded the proposal. Together, all countries big and small bolstered a zero-tolerance policy towards terrorism. An international ban on a state-sponsored terrorist through concerted global action will serve as a stern warning to countries and extremist forces that abet terror. Synergistic global action against terrorism in the aftermath of the gruesome Sri Lankan suicide bomb attacks adds momentum to the India’s counter terrorism campaign as well.

Pakistan, the fountain head of terror in the subcontinent escaped international censure and sanctions due to Chinese cover till now. Despite Pakistan’s repeated attacks on India, persuaded by international community India refrained from escalating tensions. But after the Pulwama attacks, India apprised the nations of Pakistan’s perfidious terrorist infiltrations and stubbornly asserted its right to hit back on terror havens. Countries even defended terror strikes on Balakot, the breeding ground for terrorists. Reiterating its Zero-tolerance towards terror, India refrained from escalating the situation despite failed Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes on its military installations. Simultaneously, India mobilised diplomats to hold discussions with countries towards blacklisting of Azhar. India’s crafty diplomacy, dogged pursuit and relentless efforts had reinforced its commitment towards extricating cross border terror perpetrated by Pakistan.

While P3 nations threw their weight behind the proposal to hammer out an agreement consensus of China is essential. Being non-permanent member of UNSC India which is not on the committee worked through diplomatic channels to get China on board. With South Asia reeling under the terror attacks, cognizant of dire implications, China tactically changed stance to save itself from the eventual isolation.

Though China obliged to lift the hold it argued that Pakistan has made, “enormous contributions to fighting terrorism, which deserves the full recognition of the international community”. Beijing also assured Pakistan of its support in combatting “terrorist and extremist forces”. Islamabad which always revelled under the umbrage of Beijing, even after the international embarrassment began to celebrate the absence of any reference to Pulwama attacks. Pakistan’s foreign Minister spokesperson said, “The current listing proposal has been agreed after all political references, including removal of attempts to link it with Pulwama and maligning the legitimate struggle of Kashmiris in IOK for realisation of the right to self-determination”. Losing no time, Pakistan trolls mocked India’s diplomatic victory and India’s “liberante” who refuse to bestow the credit to Modi government picked up Pakistan’s shoddy narrative to undermine India’s huge diplomatic success. It must be understood Azhar’s case has been pending before sanctions committee since long and Pulwama attacks has strengthened the resolve of nations to unanimously blacklist him.

Azhar’s designation as a global terrorist has lend credence to India’s claims of Pakistan being a state sponsor terror. The long arduous trail in blacklisting Azhar exposed complicity of China in state-sponsored terrorism and its transactional nature. Reports now suggest that Beijing demanded India’s support for BRI in return for withdrawing its technical hold. India refused but refrained from making any damning statements that would dent the credibility of BRI before second BRF summit. The US, France and UK which intensified propaganda for banning Azhar blithely used this opportunity to thwart global status of China which is aspiring to become a super power. Eventually, China’s reluctance has brought to fore the double standards of Beijing, which has ruthlessly detained over 1 million Uighurs Muslims citing terror threats while remained stoically unmoved by India’s concerns.

Notwithstanding the roadblocks, Modi government took up the task of blacklisting of Azhar and finally nailed him. Given Pakistan’s history of lack of incentive to restrict the activities of designated terrorists, despite the assets freeze, ban on travel and arms embargo there is no guarantee that Azhar’s terror activities will be curtailed. But unlike in the past, Pakistan’s reputation of patronising terror might come in its way of obtaining IMF bailout package. America which is miffed by Pakistan’s subterfuge may not be keen on let go this opportunity. Besides, Islamabad which is on the brink of financial collapse can’t afford being blacklisted by FATF (Financial Action Task Force) which is going to take a final call in September. Already FATF has expressed its dissatisfaction over Pakistan’s half-hearted measures in curbing terror finances. Any further contravention to UN sanctions, might critically affect its prospects of IMF bailout and scrutiny of FATF. So, the pressure to act is definitely high for Pakistan. By increasing deterrent costs on Pakistan through surgical strikes, restrictions on trade, people to people interaction and international campaigning Modi government has demonstrated its political will to go after Pakistan.

Belittling India’s spectacular diplomatic victory, rumours abound of India working in “subterranean manner” to have the backing of P3. Nothing comes for free and this is true for diplomacy even. Deep strategic cooperation with India can be useful for the US, France and UK in the Indo-Pacific region. UK which is reeling under Brexit is eyeing for greater access to Indian markets access. While France which is keen on strengthening strategic partnership is hoping to intensify defence cooperation and gain from India’s defence acquisitions. The US in return for its formidable support will force India to end its oil imports from Iran. Indeed, overcoming all these hurdles India single-mindedly worked towards blacklisting of Azhar. India always had a poor reputation of being a team player. New Delhi’s attempts to garnering support of P5 to leverage outcomes in its favour is thus a testimony to its increasing global stature.  

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China’s pledge of course correction at second Belt and Road Forum has few takers

Globe spanning connectivity initiative of China has been in the eye of the storm after countries began to reel under the “predatory economic” practices of Beijing. Launched in 2013 by President Xi in Kazakhstan, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or the One Belt One Road (OBOR) has become integral to China’s foreign policy. In 2017 months into the inaugural session of the BRF (Belt and Road Forum), BRI is enshrined into the constitution. Aside the economic aspects, the imbued strategic implications of the initiative made it the famed “Project of the century” for the Chinese. Since its inception, besides prioritising connectivity, China expanded the economic cooperation with the countries party to the BRI. With over $1 trillion investments under its belt, BRI soon emerged as an unprecedented infrastructure investment initiative. Comfortably sitting over reserves worth $ 3 trillion, China began to rope in developing economies under the fold of BRI. Spearheading its ambitious project of expanding its global presence spanning Asia, Africa, Europe and even Australia, China signed intergovernmental agreements with 126 countries.

China’s overwhelming global aspirations raised many eye-brows. Signalling its arrival as an economic super power, China held bi-annual inaugural BRF (Belt and Road Forum) with lot of pomp and show heralded with triumphalism in 2017. Since then a lot of water has gone under the bridge. After an exuberant summit, BRI began to hog headlines for its opaque financial agreements, charges of corruption, collusion with local politicians and environmental degradation. China’s acquisition of the Hambantota port on a 99-year lease from Sri Lanka in lieu of its mounting debts and reports of Beijing takeover of Kenya’s Mombasa port in return for its $2.27 billion debt has spurred fears in international community about BRI. Acquiring of the strategic assets on foreign soil akin to Colonialism had stoked fears about Neo-imperialistic approach of China’s BRI initiative. Absence of financial sustainability, poor economic viability of Chinese funded infrastructure projects became synonymous to “debt traps”. Analysing the Chinese debts, Centre for Global Development announced that eight countries party to BRI- Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, The Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Pakistan and Tajikistan as vulnerable to debt ensnarement. Chinese investments faced severe backlash from the locals even. In Malaysia and the Maldives leaders romped home victory in elections by promising a paring down of Chinese investments. In most countries China failed to build broader consensus. Slowly, Chinese reputation began to erode.

Amidst looming clouds of apprehensions pertaining to BRI, China conducted second BRF on April 26^th. The major shot in arm in for China before the summit has been an endorsement of BRI by a G-7 country, Italy. In response to burgeoning international backlash and OBOR gaining traction as being the debt trap, addressing leaders from 36 countries, at the inaugural session of the second BRF, President Xi pledged to recalibrate the BRI. As per the latest amends, BRI is going to financially sustainable to the developing economies, more transparent and environment friendly. Devoid of the exuberance and much fanfare, cognisant of sombre mood of the nations, China has agreed to downsize projects.

Though the number of countries which attended the second BRF has gone up, heads of state of Poland, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Spain, Argentina, the Maldives and Montenegro were conspicuous by their absence. Heads of above-mentioned countries participated in the first BRF. Prominent participants included Russian President Vladimir Putin, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, heads of ASEAN countries (except Indonesia). India has boycotted the first BRF and firmly maintained its stance expressing raising sovereignty concerns. US didn’t send any representative to BRF. During the course of summit, China signed contracts worth $64 billion.

With several of Chinese projects either stalled or revised or delayed countries are now worried about the locked finances. Coming under intense scrutiny, Premier Li Keqiang has promised some reforms in BRI months ahead of summit. Accordingly, Beijing has refrained from boastful appraisal of the BRI projects and even billboard leading the BRF forum reflected the changed perspective of Chinese leaders. Instead of effusive rhetoric, China welcomed suggestions from partner countries and expressed willingness to hold constructive consultations.

Days before the summit, China agreed to renegotiate contracts with Malaysia which has cancelled two projects worth $22.5 billion. Consequently, the $16 billion East Coast Rail Link will be now 30% cheaper. Similarly reeling under economic slowdown, Pakistan has pulled out from the $14billion Daimen-Basha Dam construction project, part of the $62 billion CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). Earlier Myanmar sought scale down of Chinese investment in Kyaukpyu by 80%. Nepal has scrapped $2.5 billion Chinese contracts towards construction of dams. To avoid debt trap, Bangladesh decided to intensify cooperation with number of countries and obtain financial assistance from multilateral institutions. To stem rising tide of criticisms towards BRI which acquired the euphemism of “debt trap diplomacy” China is now resorting to refinancing, debt write-off and renegotiations. Being too little too late, Chinese strategic analysts began silently protesting diversion of huge chunks of finances to far-flung areas even as economy is slowing down.

Till now the global presence of Chinese investments its opacity, large volumes and weak standards has been a cause of concern to the West. But now, under the ruse of scaling down the BRI, China is launching new projects like Polar Silk route, Digital Silk Route, Green Silk Route, Educational Silk Route and Space Silk Route revving up its engagement and global foot prints. China laid firm ground to Polar Silk Route by flagging off polar missions to Artic and Antarctic circles. Offering the services of its extensive Bei Dou Navigation Satellite System, a constellation of 35 satellites, China inaugurated Space Silk Route. With the advanced 5G Huawei telecommunication technologies, Beijing is luring nations to join its orbit. Despite its controversies and concerns of national security threats, China is tempting the closest American Allies to be part of the Digital Silk Route. After the cancellation of mining project in Ghana over concerns of water pollution and Myanmar’s Myitsone dam construction for destruction of ecosystem, BRI was bogged down by charges of environment destruction. Ever since, China began pursuing green projects to reduce carbon emissions and carbon foot print and began issuing green bonds for solar and hydropower projects. Soon it put into place Belt and Road Green Development Project. Beijing unveiled the academic wing of BRI, Universities Alliance of Silk Road (UASR) in 2015 which currently includes 132 universities across 32 countries kicking off the Educational silk route.

Marshalling copious amount of soft power, China is planning to increase its global influence. Consumed by the “America First” doctrine, American administration began retreating from the world order. Beijing with his immaculate projects on connectivity, infrastructure development, investments in industrial corridors is steadily filling up the vacuum created by the US. Smaller countries keen on treading the path of development are increasingly moving away from the American orbit despite the corrosive impact of the Chinese investments. Woken up the China’s burgeoning influence, countries are now launching new connectivity initiative.  Japan is now actively pushing its “Quality Infrastructure Investment” partnership as a reliable alterative to China’s connectivity projects. India-Japan-Indonesia have launched Asia Africa Growth Corridor. India has also increased its development assistance to its neighbours and unveiled Project Mausam. But the volume of Chinese investments remains unmatchable.

In response to the multi-billion dollars OBOR, Mike Pompeo, US Secretary for State announced $113 million towards energy and infrastructure projects in Asia at Indo-Pacific Business Forum in 2018. By January 2019, Trump signed a law Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA) giving a massive fillip to America’s engagement with Asian countries. To counter aggressive Chinese expansion, US rolled out this act which addresses the security issues, economic aspects and fosters values in the Indo-Pacific. While America is making attempts to compete with China and effectively engage with Asian countries, China seems to be way ahead of the curve inching towards the goal of realising Sino-Centric Asia.

Beijing’s pledge of high standards, more transparency at second BRF will insulate countries from the veritable debt trap. Compelled by several countries, China has embarked on course correction. Beijing’s conscious attempts to fix the flaws of BRI is thus a welcome change. But China’s obduracy and reluctance to address India’s fears over CPEC violating its sovereignty and eventual deployment of the security personnel along the corridor to protect its interests has epitomised its insensitivity towards India. Though President Xi continues to allude that BRI will pave way for win-win cooperation and better financial integration, his claims are dubious. Besides, China’s attempts to encircle India through the maritime silk route passing through Indian Ocean has impact the maritime security architecture of the region. BRI is corner stone of Xi’s foreign policy and his meteoric rise is indispensably linked to the success of the initiative. China aims to dominate the geopolitics through BRI. With the theme of “Belt and Road Cooperation, shaping a brighter shared future” China attempted to allay fears of nations. Despite the assurances of trimming down its projects, China with its multitudinous offer of choices of investments ranging from technology to education is attempting to entice nations towards BRI. But unlike financial investments, China’s entry into digital infrastructure is going to have huge ramifications on the national security of a country. BRI, with its global presence is already impacting the regional and global order. This new avatar of BRI is going to be ominous. Evidently, nations must exercise extreme caution before embracing China’s plethora of Silk Routes and monitor the projects rolled under veneer of BRI.

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