Crucial Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections

South Asia has become seat for high stake geopolitics. Nearly all the countries in the region have embraced democracy. But the fledging democratic institutions are still grappling with political crisis and conundrum. The constitutional crisis in Sri Lanka, military intervention in Pakistan’s electoral process and imposition of state of emergency in Maldives this year stands testimony to this observation. Bangladesh, the South West neighbour of India with which the country shares over 4000 km border is going to polls on December 30^th.  Bangladesh which is liberated in 1971 witnessed 19 coups, authoritarian leaderships and martial law till 1996.   Sadly, even now elections are marred by violence.  As the country prepares for the 11^th Parliamentary elections for choosing 350 members for the Jagtiyo-Sansad (House of the Nation) Election commission has ordered deployment of troops to ensure conduct of free and fair polls.

Unlike the last elections in 2014, when BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) has boycotted the polls, this year the contest is going to be intense. As a pre-condition, BNP demanded conduct of elections under a neutral, caretaker government and release of its leader Begum Khaleda Zia who is now serving jail sentence for embezzlement of funds. Except shifting of election by a week, none of the demands were accepted. Realising that it hardly has any choice, the principal opposition party BNP known for its strong links with fundamentalist organisation, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) is getting ready for elections. Hence the elections are not going to be a cake-walk for Awami League (AL) led by Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Bangabhandu, founder of Bangladesh, Mujibur Rahman. Struggling hard for political relevance, BNP is now determined to give a tough fight to AL. It must be noted that for the first time in Bangladesh history, elections are not conducted by a caretaker government.

Pro-India Awami League is going to polls with coalition partners Jatiya Party of HM Ershad, former President of Bangladesh, an Islamist party Hejafat-e-Islam and Bikalpdhara Bangladesh party. BNP is going to enter electoral fray after a gap of five years is allied with Jatiya Okiya Front (United National Front), led by Dr Kamal Hossain of Gono Forum. Earlier AL and BNP are clearly distinguished as pro-Liberation, secular front and anti-liberation, Islamic front. In the current elections both parties allied with a coalition of parties with varied distinctions and eventually inherited bunch of contradictions. 

BNP, a pro-Pakistan party, joined hands with Hossain known for his secular credentials and JeI, an avowed fundamentalist Islamic group. Hossein is known to be close to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and is believed to have played a crucial role in shaping AL after Hasina’s exile in 1981. He formed a four-party alliance just before elections. So far, Bangladesh witnessed a turf battle between two begums which seemed to be more or less evenly poised. But the situation is markedly different now.

Overzealous Hasina, in a bid to contain split of Islamist votes joined hands with radical Islamist group. In the recently held local elections, huge number of Islamists were elected on AL’s ticket. This essentially quashed the hopes of Hasina maintaining the secular credence in Bangladesh.

BNP and its core supporter JeI are fighting for political survival. BNP is hamstrung by lack of leadership with Khaleda Zia serving sentence. Her son, Tarique Rahman convicted for assassination bids against Shiekh Hasina is at large and overseeing the poll preparations from London. His candidature has been disqualified by election commission. In absence of experienced leadership, JeI have taken over the charge of selecting and fielding candidates. JeI was banned in the initial days of Bangladesh formation. But subsequently, political parties lifted the ban. It has become crucial partner of BNP in 2001 and its chief and general secretary served as ministers as well. JeI was deregistered by election commission in 2013. Following High Court’s intervention, the party’s candidates are now contesting in polls as independents. Majority of its cadres are facing charges of war crimes are either sentenced or serving life terms for siding with the Pakistani troops during 1971 Bangladesh Liberation war. JeI which has strong links with Pakistan ISI handlers have good support in the border regions. It has fielded candidates in 25 of the 300 seats under the BNP’s party symbol of sheaf of paddy leaf. Even as AL is wary of JeI making electoral gains, reports of Pakistan meddling in Bangladesh elections exacerbated its fears.

In the run up to elections, a seven-minute leaked conversation between BNP leader Khandaker Moshraff Hossain and Pakistan ISI officer with references to use of Chinese money surfaced. BNP is known to have close ties with Pakistan and this critical evidence added more heft to the suspicions of the ruling party. Around the same news of Charge d affaires, of Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka, Shah Faisal Kakar and defense adviser Brigadier Kamran Nazir Malik met three members of BNP standing committee- Mirza Abbas, Aminul Haq and Khandaker Moshraff Hossain. Alleged reference to Chinese money has become a cause for concern for India given its implicit role in recently concluded Maldivian and Sri Lankan political crisis. India’s fears don’t seem far-fetched considering $34 billion Chinese investments and 25% stakes in Bangladesh stock exchange, Bangladesh is second largest recipient of Chinese money after Pakistan in South Asia. Meddling by external agents and vested interests in elections are commonly reported in Western countries. But countries in South Asia are now finding place in such reports recently. Given, Pakistan’s deep roots in Bangladesh and its all-weather friendship with China, allegations of external meddling can’t be ruled out.

The relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh have been heading south. Recently Bangladesh refused to accept Saqlain Syedah as Pakistani High Commissioner following reports of the diplomatic office being used for fostering ISI activities. Bangladesh even supported India’s stand of boycotting the SAARC Summit at Islamabad in 2016 protesting Pakistan’s hand in terror activities. Brutal terror attack in Dhaka high-end eatery in 2016 investigations revealed Pakistan’s role. Ever since Sheikh Hasina has unequivocally expressed serious objections to Pakistan’s interference in Bangladesh. These reports have certainly strengthened the claims of Hasina.  

AL on the other hand, is facing the heat anti-incumbency and rumours of corruption. People are growing wary of Hasina’s growing authoritarian streak of overbearing surveillance, crackdown on freedom of speech, detention of journalists and activists at the drop of the hat. Airing concerns over instances of intimidation of opposition leaders since September Human Rights Watch raised alarm over existing repressive atmosphere in Bangladesh. Burgeoning reports of false and fabricated cases slapped against the opposition parties, protestors, disappearance and death of poll agents clearly threatened the credibility of elections. The international forum called upon countries to ensure free and fair elections. As a matter of fact, observers from 16 countries have arrived in Bangladesh for conduct of violence free polls.

Despite Hasina’s severe crackdown on dissent, a vast majority hail her decade regime for phenomenal economic growth. For the year 2017-18 Bangladesh recorded 7.86% growth rate, higher than all the developing countries. Country’s economic progress registered upward trajectory since 2008 aided by steadily growing manufacturing sector. The country which is often in the headlines for natural disasters reached a historical moment this year, by graduating from the “least developed country” to a “developing economy” this elevation is an outcome of the broader ambitious vision of Sheikh Hasina. Buoyed by the strong economic growth, people are keen on re-electing Hasina and the party is banking on its developmental agenda to get back to power an unprecedented third time.

But bogged down by allegations of creeping authoritarianism, AL is revoking liberation war and doggedly hunting down on the worst perpetrators of the genocide (opposition BNP & JeI leaders for collaborating with Razakars). Simultaneously AL is seeking the apology of Pakistan for its excesses during the liberation movement. Conforming to worse doubts of people BNP’s formidable supporter JeI is calling for realignment with Pakistan. As a result, BNP is increasingly viewed as party inimical to country’s progress and development and pro-Pakistan.

Despite its contradictions, election analysts contend that BNP would fare well in the border regions while AL will be voted to power in all likelihood for its initiatives, stability and pragmatic economic policies. Though people are miffed by AL’s high-handed politics, muzzling of press, free speech and even patronising criminal elements, BNP as an alternative seems to be worse. But some strategists believe that BNP still has a larger ground presence and support. Barred from elections at the eleventh hour, BNP is expected to garner the sympathy vote of people. Further, BNP’s revival through coalition partners is believed to have reintegrated the core religious forces in the country. Going by Bangladesh’s electoral history  where parties won elections by a margin of 2-3% votes, the scales can tilt in either direction.

Implications for India

Living up to the pledge of cracking down on anti-India terror modules operating from Bangladesh, after taking charge in 2008, Hasina dismantled the terror camps along the Indo-Bangladesh border. Insurgency activities in the North-East have significantly reduced and Indian intelligence agencies credit Awami League for this marked difference. Besides, in the past ten years, India and Bangladesh significantly ramped up cooperation. In 2015, both countries peacefully resolved the four-decade long Land Boundary Agreement and maritime dispute. While the Teesta waters issue still remains a bone of contention, both parties have agreed not to gloat about their differences. Energy cooperation, connectivity and infrastructure development projects received a major boost under Hasina’s regime. Operationalisation of bus, train and river ports between the countries have improved people to people connect. Indian private investments in Bangladesh are now worth $10 billion. New Delhi has extended $7.5 billion credit line for infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. Above all, Bangladesh is essential cog for India’s Act East Policy. Though the bilateral ties have improved significantly there are still major irritants to this relationship. India’s take on Rohingya deportation, NRC in Assam, tariff and non-tariff barriers imposed on Bangladeshi goods are stoking anti-India feelings in Bangladesh. Given, AL’s zero tolerance for terrorism, a third term for Hasina would bode well for India as opposed to BNP which is a Pakistan apologist. While a stable and sustaining democracy country in immediate neighbourhood can be an asset for India, a sweeping victory for AL would shrink space for political dissent in Bangladesh.

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After drawing blank in assembly elections BJP must reinvent itself for 2019 general elections

The much-awaited results for the five assembly elections are finally out. Results for the state of Madhya Pradesh are formally declared after almost 24 hours of the counting, turning it into a longest battle in the EVM era. BJP completely lost election battle in the Hindi heartland, which is its strongest base. Congress convincingly handed it over 3-0 defeat. Touted as the semi-finals before the general elections 2019, the outcomes of the results would indeed offer great insights about the perception of people towards the Modi regime as well. Undeniably the dark cloud of defeat had brought to fore the glaringly defects of the BJP machinery. Despite being the World’s largest political party with over 12 crore primary membership and well-oiled machinery of ground workers, BJP failed to set a narrative. While party cadres successfully mobilised people to vote, unlike their peers in leftist parties, they couldn’t highlight accomplishments of respective state governments. This electoral drubbing has come as a wakeup call to Modi-Shah duo whose electoral invincibility rattled the opposition. In the past four and half years, Prime Minister Modi through meaningful interventions brought about transformative changes in several sectors infusing fresh energy and driving the nation towards larger economic development. With his unstinted efforts and rigorous schedule of seventeen work hours a day, Modi evolved as towering personality with no political equals. Despite these positive attributes. Some thing seems to be gravely amiss.

BJP must be commended for its tough fight in Madhya Pradesh. Notwithstanding the 15 years of incumbency, BJP garnered 0.1% more votes than Congress but narrowly missed the majority mark. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan will forever be remembered for his great contributions in pulling out the state from the BIMARU status. By bringing about new reforms in agriculture, he catapulted its ailing economy from financial throes. Though people widely acknowledge his phenomenal work the indifference and callousness of some legislators frustrated people. As elections neared, based on ground reports, Chouhan made desperate attempts replace the non-performing legislators with fresh faces. Though this move has contained some losses, it was rather insufficient. Even he made frantic moves to woo backward communities, promised to double the farm prices and announced several sops to win support of people.

In Rajasthan BJP managed to put up a respectable show despite the voter apathy. The loss in terms of absolute numbers from 165 seats in 2013 to 73 seems glaring, the marginal difference in votes polled between BJP and Congress is 1% or turns out be 1 lakh votes. Given the historical record of voting patterns of electorate rewarding BJP and Congress alternatively this may not be really of grave worry. But the issue of agrarian crisis is real and central government must come out with some strategy to alleviate this problem before the general elections. The mobilisation of the party cadre by the central command months before elections has saved party from the disgrace of being completely wiped out in the assembly elections. Besides the complaints of the leaders like Vasundhara Raje being not accessible to party cadres must be addressed and possibly the burden of responsibility should be shifted to shoulders of imaginative youth leaders.

 In Chhattisgarh, after three successful terms by the longest serving Chief Minister, Dr Raman Singh, the party faced a massive defeat. The huge vote share difference of 10% reflected people’s desperation for change. The state elections offered many lessons for the party. Though there is no denying that Singh made a stellar contribution in terms of developing a robust public distribution system for the newly carved out state of Chhattisgarh, he failed to reinvent himself. Interestingly even the state turned a blind eye to rapidly changing demographic composition of the state. The conversion factories had a free run. But the three successful tenures of BJP regime kept the red terror under control. Especially the state made significant progress in the last four and half years, in restricting the purview of red corridor to few pockets. With the change of guard, the menace extremist left wing violence might intensify. Reclaiming the support and trust of people of Chhattisgarh should therefore be among the top priorities of BJP.

The only saving grace for the largest political party of India in youngest state of India, Telangana has been s respectable win of strong Hindutva advocate, Raja Singh Lodh from the Goshamahal constituency. He defeated the nearest TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) candidate by a margin of 16,000 votes. BJP vote share in the state is mere 7%. Interestingly, MIM with 2.7% vote share managed to win 7 seats. TRS riding on the sentiment of statehood, swept the state. The party must indeed be thankful to Chandra Babu Naidu, TDP supremo who joined hands with Congress, its arch-rival, CPI and other local parties to launch Mahakutami as an alternative to TRS. Counting on the support of the settlers from Andhra, Naidu dreamt of making big gains in Telangana.  But people outrightly rejected TDPs politics and voted TRS enmasse. TRS gained immensely from this negative vote. But in the process, BJP’s poll prospects took a beating for failing to present its story in a way people can understand and appreciate. Besides, settlers found TRS as better alternative than Congress or TDP which are brazenly casteist.

MNF’s (Mizo National Front), an ally of BJP victory in Mizoram paved way for a Congress-mukt North East. Facing a decade long anti-incumbency, Congress suffered a humiliating defeat. BJP made its debut in the Christian majority state by polling 8% votes. The Congress chief minister of Mizoram lost in both constituencies he contested.

The stunning defeat for BJP in five assembly elections months before the general elections came as a big jolt. For some time, people have been drawing similarities between the NDA-I of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Modi’s NDA-II to alert the party of plausible oversights and of unwarranted hubris. As a party which have grown from electoral strength to two parliamentary must now seriously introspect and possibly charter its game plan.

Firstly, BJP has the worst PR machinery which is totally incapable of presenting a narrative. While major financial reforms have hurt the core voter base of the party, the problem is exacerbated by inability of party foot soldiers who failed to convey the intent of the leadership in an effective way. 

Secondly, the political spectrum of India is tilted towards leftist ideology. Hence a right-wing party like BJP must work doubly hard and be very active in setting a narrative. A dedicated team of intellectuals effectively floating the ideology in a nuanced way should be pressed into action to highlight the achievement and accomplishments of the government.

Thirdly, it failed to identify the political vacuum in some states. After the decimation of the Congress from the twin Telugu states, its traditional strong holds, BJP showed little or no interest in making strong inroads into the South bound states.

Fourthly, despite tag of pro-Hindutva party, in the past four and half years, it has alienated itself from the Hindu causes. It hardly evinced interest in standing up for the cause of its dedicated voter base. Donning the mantle of secularism, BJP ambitiously aimed to burnish its image has the most committed secular apostle. Its trepidation and hesitation in taking unequivocal stance on issues like Sabarimala and Ayodhya has even punctured its image. Its strong credentials as supporter of Hindutva causes while in opposition as opposed to its subtle approach when in government confused people. People are now increasingly distrustful of BJP’s commitment.

Fifthly, BJP’s overambitious approach to showcase itself as saviour of minorities amidst orchestrated global tirade against its regime by vested interests has irked people. India has always been inclusive and there was absolutely no need for flaunt its attributes. But government’s indifference to rein in on foreign-funded institutions working in India with nefarious designs has caused disgruntlement among the majoritarian community.

Sixthly, one of the major poll planks of Modi during the 2014 elections has been rooting out corruption. Modi has delivered on this promise and till now there isn’t even a single charge of corruption against the government and its cabinet. But people are miffed by Modi’s inability to arrest, prosecute and jail the corrupt politicians of the scam-ridden UPA regime.

Seventhly, despite its commitment to respect the values of the Indic civilisation. Government hasn’t made even a single attempt to change the academic curriculum replete of twisted, distorted and viciously convoluted derision of India. Not even a single word has been changed in the text books that abuse the country, its long history, tradition and its glorious civilisation wealth.

Eightly, government’s apathy towards gaurakshaks and frailty in going by the false propaganda peddled by the vested groups and acceding to their false narratives without even investigation of individual cases has alienated the dedicated Hindu groups from the party. 

While the results of the assembly elections may not be indicative of the people’s resentment towards Prime Minister Modi. But with general elections few months away, BJP can’t be complacent. It must revitalise, revive and recharge the party cadres with new energy. Besides, it must strongly present its case as why it must be re-elected and why the government needs yet another term. Quintessentially, perception is the key. BJP must be able to present its story in an effective way. Else all the hard efforts of the party which has been working as a strong team infusing best of their energies, potentials will go down the drain. Also, with Congress on strong wicket, it is but inevitable that Rahul Gandhi will be projected as the prime ministerial candidate. Enthused by the resurgence, Congress might be reluctant to make concessions for other political parties or regional outfits. Similarly, TRS has been voicing for an anti-Congress, anti-BJP front for the upcoming elections and after its stupendous victory, it would push for an alliance with like-minded parties. Likely, the opposition parties, which were inclined to form a combined front against Modi till December 10^th might now part ways and align themselves into two fronts. BJP must capitalise on the opposition disunity through meticulous planning, mobilisation of workers and regrouping with friends. As a last-ditch attempt, BJP can bolster its chances of forming government in 2019 by passing some crucial legislations like long pending Satyapal Private Members Bill and possibly an ordinance on Ayodhya in the winter session of parliament which began yesterday.

People have pinned great hopes on Prime Minister Modi. The absolute majority conferred upon BJP in 2014 is a proof of people’s trust in the party led by Narendra Modi. Besides, inclusive economic growth, the land of Sanatana Dharma is yearning for a leader who can uphold the vitality of this hand.  BJP has shown promise of change and as it begins its preparation for the mega battle. It would bode if it can reflect on the famous Uttara Speech of Sri Aurobindo in 1909 where he says “I say no longer say that nationalism is a creed, a religion, a faith; I say that it is Sanatana Dharma which for us is nationalism. The Hindu nation was born with Sanatana Dharma, with it, it moves, and with it, it declines, and if Sanatana Dharma were capable of perishing, with the Sanatana Dharma it would perish. The Sanatana Dharma, that is nationalism”.  At the same time, keeping prejudices, narrow sectarian differences at bay the majoritarian community must make an unbiased assessment of political parties before exercising their votes in the interest of the country at large.

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Has India inadvertently walked into Pakistan’s emotive religious diplomacy trap? Part-2

Indeed, India handed over Pakistan a diplomatic victory by sending two cabinet ministers for the ground laying ceremony. Pakistan rightly used this occasion to publicise this issue in portraying itself as peace mongering nation. With right PR and objectively choosing the propagandists/Pakistani leaning journalists from Indian media, Islamabad diligently enhanced the global visibility of the event. Taking cues from India’s tacit approval as a green signal for dialogue, Pakistan foreign office announced that it would invite India for SAARC summit at Islamabad. SAARC summit of Islamabad 2016 was stalled after India refused to participate after Pakistani trained terrorists attacked Indian military base at Uri killing 18 security personnel. Soon, Bhutan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka backed down. The meet stood cancelled.

Following reports of Pakistani invitation for SAARC, India called bluff of Islamabad’s posturing and PR stating, “India is not a special invitee that Pakistan has the discretion to invite us. India is integral to SAARC”.  Sushma Swaraj clarified, “For many years the Indian government has been asking for Kartarpur corridor, only now Pakistan responded positively. It doesn’t mean the bilateral dialogue will start because of this, terror and talks can’t go together. The moment Pakistan stops terrorist activities in India, dialogue can start. But the dialogue is not connected with only Kartarpur corridor”.

At the ground-breaking ceremony in Pakistan on November 28^th, Congress leader Sidhu who went on a personal capacity hogged the limelight for his effortless ease in praising the Pakistani leadership. He went overboard saying, “there are tremendous possibilities in this corridor, only a political will was required which has been shown by an angel (Imran Khan) across the border and as well as government here”. Back in India, Congress missed no opportunity in complimenting Sidhu for his pioneering efforts in making the Kartarpur corridor proposal a reality. Known for his eccentricities, in a public meeting at the ceremony, Sidhu made deliberate references to Rafale deal. Soon, Imran Khan used this occasion to rake up Kashmir issue. Irresponsible, immature and irrelevant remarks of Khan attested his stature of puppet of Pakistan military.

Later MEA issued a statement objecting Khan’s reference to Kashmir “It is deeply regrettable that the Prime Minister of Pakistan chose to politicise the pious occasion meant to realise the long pending demand of the Sikh community to develop Kartarpur corridor by making unwarranted reference to Jammu and Kashmir which is an integral and inalienable part of India”. With these unwarranted references, Khan has unwittingly unravelled the nefarious intentions of Pakistan in accepting India’s request for opening Kartarpur Sahib shrine for Sikh pilgrims. By ridiculing India and Prime Minister Modi, Khan has made a spectacle out of the issue which is supposed to foster good will and friendship between both nations.

The presence of Pakistan army chief Qamar Bajwa at the ground laying ceremony underlined the centrality of military’s role in the entire game plan. Khalistani leader in Pakistan, Gopal Chawla, a close aid of Hafiz Saeed mastermind of 26/11 attended the event and posed with Sidhu. Sidhu’s unusual bonhomie and servility in Pakistan sparked a massive outrage. Following intense backlash from media, Congress which has earlier backed Sidhu eventually distanced from his comments. Coming under intense fire, Sidhu in an interview claimed that Congress high command, Rahul Gandhi and Ahmed Patel have arranged a special flight for him to Pakistan. Connecting these dots, it is now amply clear at the behest of Congress party, Sidhu has been throwing barbs at Modi and even raked Rafale issue.

In 2015 Mani Shankar Aiyar on his visit to Pakistan at a panel discussion in Pakistani Channel responding to a question on impasse between both countries said, “The first and foremost thing is to remove Modi. Only then talks can move forward. We have to wait for four more years. They (panellists) are all optimist and that they can move forward when Modi Sahab is there, but I don’t think so”. Aiyar’s remarks and efforts to seek support from Pakistan to remove Modi created a furore. Though Congress dismissed the issue, the event left a trail of doubt. Since September Pakistan has been backing Rahul Gandhi for the prime ministerial post of India openly on twitter. A month of this campaign, BJP IT cell alleged that  Congress parties has launched a “Desh Bachao and Modi hatao” facebook ads campaign in Pakistan and soliciting Pakistan’s support.  Now Sidhu’s open admission suffice to say that Congress is seeking help of Pakistani establishment to topple Modi government. Congress party’s brazen politicking with enemy state known for its anti-India agenda casts serious doubts on its credentials and commitment towards nation’s interests. Before Congress’s intention be given a benefit of doubt, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s boastful statement “Imran Khan’s googly has forced the Indian government to send its ministers across the border” at Khan’s 100-day celebration into power surmises that Kartarpur corridor was a bait.

In 2010, Chairman of the Pakistan Evacuee Trust Property Board Chairman, Sayed Asif Hashmi offered to complete all modalities for construction of Kartarpur corridor but the Congress party which is in power didn’t respond. Even in May 2017, the parliamentary committee on external affairs ruled out any agreement on Kartarpur. But undeniably, this time around Pakistani leadership and military threw entire weight around the Kartarpur issue since engagement with India has become a “requirement”. They created buzz in the media with trusted emissaries and loyal propaganda machinery. India blissfully unaware of Pakistan’s treacherous plot had bit the bullet.

Pakistan is a habitual offender and India must be extremely cautious in handling this entire issue. People to people interaction and exchange is going on for several years through the Lahore bus services and special permits to PoK. With opening of Kartarpur corridor Punjab will be perilously close to becoming a strategically vulnerable region. Pakistan’s posturing and real intentions are crystal clear. By allowing visa-free access of Indian citizens to Kartarpur Gurudwara, Pakistan is eyeing the possibility of resumption of comprehensive bilateral dialogue with India and burnish its image as a “responsible country”.

The proposal for construction and developing Kartarpur corridor is truly an event of celebration given it religious significance to Sikh community and the landmark decision must be hailed. But Pakistan which is known for its vicious hatred towards India is leveraging this emotive issue to signal dawn of “thaw in relations” to global community. For decades, ISI has been supporting, funding and assisting the Khalistani movement to wean Sikh community from India. While the phenomenal sacrifices of Sikhs and their valiant contributions towards India’s development, progress and nation building remain unparalleled, Pakistan is trying to stoke secessionist tendencies. Indeed, Pakistan makes no bones about its intention of reviving Sikh militancy. ISI which manages the Sikh shrines is innocuously turning these places into active grounds for Khalistani propaganda.

Modi government’s is facing ire of strategists for sacrificing the strategic security in lieu of electoral gains. Pakistan for all its grand standing of rapprochement with India through religious diplomacy high on perception, is exceedingly short of action. There is not even a shred of evidence to show any change in its policy towards India. It continues to be a safe haven of terror elements. It hasn’t abandoned proxy war, the intrinsic component of its strategic doctrine. On the 10^th anniversary of 26/11 Pakistan proudly announced its role in bloody massacre. Govt officials shared stage with terrorists. Pakistan hasn’t brought terror masterminds to justice. There is no evidence of any change in Pakistan’s discourse towards India to bring about transformation in its relations. Essentially it turns out that Karatpur corridor is yet another contraption in the treacherous plan of bleeding India by thousand cuts. After reckless unleashing of its strategic assets, militant outfits, Pakistan is now resorting to this seemingly innocuous religious diplomacy. Husain Haqqani former Pakistani ambassador to US postulated that ideological pillars of Pakistan are Islamism and anti-Indianism. While liberal brigade might continue to expound the potential of religious diplomacy pragmatism dictates caution.

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Has India Inadvertently walked into Pakistan's emotive religious diplomacy trap? Part-I

Pakistan’s renewed pitch and new-found enthusiasm for religious diplomacy with India found a new voice on the eve of Imran Khan’s swearing in ceremony. Islamabad found suitable emissary for their religious diplomacy in Navjot Singh Sidhu who attended oath-taking ceremony of Khan. Exuberant Sidhu who began singing paeans of his Pakistani friends after his return disclosed to media about Pakistan Army Chief Qamar Bajwa’s intention to open Dera Baba Nanak (Kartarpur) corridor for the 550^th Guru Nanak’s birth anniversary. Kartarpur Sahib, one of the most sacred places for Sikhs in Narowal Pakistan is 4 km from the International Border. Till now Indian Sikhs had to be contended at the mere glance of the revered place through a high-powered telescope on the Indo-Pakistan border. Atal Bihari Vajpayee who carried a message of peace on his Lahore bus ride to Pakistan in 1999 first proposed this idea of opening the Kartarpur corridor. In 2000, Pakistan agreed to allow Sikh pilgrims a visa-free visit to the shrine by constructing a bridge to connect the Indian side to the Gurudwara. Since then both countries never had any agreement in principle. 

After eighteen long years, Pakistan began to make overtures to India through the garrulous Congress leader Sidhu who overnight became the messiah of bilateral peace initiatives. Islamabad’s ploy of exploiting the sensitive cultural and religious sentiments of Indians and more specifically Sikhs made Indian strategists circumspect of Pakistan’s intentions. Neck deep in economic crisis, facing international alienation and grey-listed by FATF (Financial Action Task Force) for failing to implement money laundering legislations, Pakistan is seeking a truce with India. More than three months into power, Imran Khan has been desperately trying to keep Pakistani economy sinking under the burden of bad debts, depleting forex reserves and falling rupee. After swearing in as Prime Minister Khan travelled to Saudi Arabia twice seeking funds. Amidst string of cancellations by high-profile industrialists and heads of state to the “Future Investment Initiative”, touted as “Davos of the Desert” held in the aftermath of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s brutal death, hard-pressed for finances, Khan attended the meet. Soon he embarked on a five-day foreign visit to China for financial assistance. Khan was denied funds but both countries signed slew of agreements to strengthen solidarity and friendship. Similarly, Pakistan reached out to UAE which offered some help. In the meanwhile, the visiting FATF delegation not satisfied with Pakistan’s efforts to curb terror recommended its inclusion in the grey list.  In September acceding to Pakistan’s request India initially agreed for a dialogue between Foreign Ministers along the sidelines of UNGA meetings. Within 24 hours India cancelled the proposed meet after Pakistan released a postal stamp to honour terrorist Burhan Wani and brutal killing of security personnel patrolling on the Indian side. Pakistan cried foul and Khan tweeted, “disappointed at the arrogant and negative response by India to my call for resumption of the peace dialogue. However, in all my life I have come across small men occupying big offices who don’t have the vision to see the larger picture” in an ominous reference to Prime Modi. All these incidents reiterate that Pakistan is desperately trying all tricks in its book to bring the country from isolation and economic distress.

Not just India even US vexed up by Pakistan’s inaction and double game US threatened to block financial assistance. The relations were severely strained. Just before Mike Pompeo’s visit to Pakistan, as if to assure its commitment towards fighting terror elements in Afghanistan, Islamabad announced death of Jalaluddin Haqqani, founder of Afghan and Pakistan Taliban. Over decades, Pakistan has mastered subterfuge and trickery. Now its cursory measures towards curbing terror measures are not taken in good stride. Despite serious differences with US, Pakistan is trying to woo the US since its nod is mandatory to avail IMF assistance. Pakistan for the 12^th time has approached IMF for financial bailout package to keep its economy afloat.  A fortnight ago, severely miffed President Trump said, “Pakistan didn’t do a damn thing for us”. As per PTI reports, it is now learnt that US has suspended $3 billion financial assistance to Pakistan this year. Pakistan’s global reputation is plummeting. Islamabad is making desperate attempts to resurrect its international image. At this juncture, Indian government sent a request for construction Kartarpur Corridor from Dera Baba Nanak in Gurdaspur district to Gurudwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur on banks of river Ravi to Pakistan.  It stated, “The Kartarpur Corridor will be implemented as an integrated development project with government of India funding, to provide smooth and easy passage, with all the modern amenities. Government of India will put in place suitable facilities for smooth passage of pilgrims. Government of Pakistan will be urged to recognise the sentiments of Sikh communities to develop a corridor with suitable facilities in their territory as well”. Pakistan immediately approved India’s request.

For decades, Sikhs have been demanding the construction of Kartarpur corridor and a nod from both governments was hailed by international community. Along with its request to the Pakistan government India conveyed its apprehensions, “despite the harassment that pilgrims face on the Pakistani side, with the Khalistani posters or through the lack of access to consular officials, Sikh pilgrims continue to make this difficult journey. Our proposal is so that the burden of pilgrims can be eased significantly”. This statement underscores India’s scepticism towards Pakistan. But went ahead with this decision to honour the sentiments of Sikhs.

Government’s “landmark” decision evoked flurry of responses. Alyssa Ayres termed “this move will generate good will and help keep bilateral relations steady”. Sreemoy Talukdar of First Post, wrote, “it would be a shame if domestic political considerations lead to strategic vulnerability”. With elections around the corner, it would be anybody’s guess that ruling party would easily succumb to such pressure. But aside these political considerations, it a fact that despite being labelled as “nationalist party”, BJP at the helm of the affairs have displayed extraordinary will and zeal to build bridges of friendship with Pakistan. In his article, “A bridge too long” for TOI, former ambassador Vivek Katju recalled the enthusiasm of Atal Bihari Vajpayee who travelled to Lahore on bus with a message of peace and proposal to open the Kartarpur corridor. But within months, Pakistan reciprocated India’s friendly gesture with a perfidious Kargil war. After twenty years, Prime Minister Modi reposed similar hope and invoked fall of Berlin wall to reiterate the transformative nature of his government’s decision on Kartarpur. But the moot point remains is Pakistan worthy of India’s generosity? Going by Pakistan’s record of perfidy, duplicity, subterfuge and lies during the past seven decades, government’s overdrive appears to be misplaced and ill conceived.

The massive decision on Kartarpur has come on a day when India protested Pakistan government for preventing entry of Indian diplomats into the Nankana Sahib Gurudwara and Dera Sacha Sauda. Also, when Punjab police investigation have confirmed Pakistani links of the suspects involved in the grenade attacks on the Nirankari Ashram near Amritsar that killed three persons and left 20 injured. Pakistan’s relentless attacks amidst India’s inability to fathom its treachery is forcing people to question frailty of government in repeating endless mistakes of history? Pakistan has penchant for inciting communal disharmony and stoking secessionist passions. Even its role in revival of the Khalistani movement is incontrovertibly established. Hence government’s misplaced judgement of Kartarpur corridor adding a modicum of stability seemed fallacious.

Above all, the inexpiable insensitivity of holding the ground-breaking ceremony corridor on the Indian side at Dera Baba Nanak, Gurdaspur on 26^th November by Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu and Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh has added dubious dimensions to the whole exercise. Even after 10 years of the most brutal 26/11 terror attacks while victims still await justice, Indian government thanked the Pakistan side for accepting India’s proposal, who perpetrated the crime. The grievous oversight of policy makers and blindsided approach towards symbolisms reflected the indifference of the current regime. Modi regime has by and large added a fresh dynamism and momentum to Indian foreign policy. But its policy towards Pakistan characterised by flip-flops, somersaults and inconsistencies has given Islamabad enough room to outmanoeuvre Indian strategies.

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