To commemorate celebrations of the 69th Republic
Day, India has extended invitation to not just one country but the leaders of
the 50-year old regional forum ASEAN signifying the importance of nurturing
ties with countries in the extended neighborhood. ASEAN comprises of 10 south
east Asian nations- Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos,
Thailand, Philippines, Brunei and Myanmar. Aside, the deep cultural and
historical connect, Buddhism and Ramayana connect India with ASEAN. All the
leaders unanimously accepted the invitation to grace the seminal event as Chief
guests reflecting their recognition of India as a rising power. India’s unprecedented
outreach besides giving fresh impetus to Modi’s Act East Policy will offer an
excellent opportunity to deepen foundations four pillars of
cooperation-economic, political, cultural and maritime security. This constructive engagement with the ASEAN
group eventually marks 25 years of partnership, 15 years of summit-level
interactions and five years of strategic relationship.
At the fag end of Cold War, mired by financial crisis, Prime
Minister PV Narasimha initiated new economic reforms and formally initiated Look East Policy to establish strong
economic ties with “tiger economies”
of ASEAN. The policy has become central to India’s approach towards different countries
in ASEAN with varied political orientations. Reinforcing the need for shifting
from westward thinking to eastward thinking, Prime Minister Modi rechristened
the initiative as Act East policy in
2014. But interestingly, even before India vigorously pursue ties with South
East Asia, China evolved into a regional actor developing strong, trade and
transactional relations with ASEAN countries which strengthened with time.
With the collapse of Soviet Union, China became more relevant
to the region. While the end of Cold War presented an opportunity for India and
Japan as well to engage with South East Asian nations, China had already made
massive inroads into the region by then. Since 1992, India continued to engage
with ASEAN through ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Treaty of Amity and
Cooperation (for peaceful resolution of regional disputes), East Asian Summit
(EAS), ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) and Expanded ASEAN
Maritime Forum(EAMF). But China always had an “early starter” advantage. As
steadily China clambered growth trajectory it began to intensify claims in the
South China Sea (SCS) and brow-beat smaller neighbors. Among the ASEAN nations,
it has disputes with Philippines and Vietnam over the Scarborough Shoal and
Spartly Islands. While Vietnam refused to bow down to China, Philippines pulled
up China to ICJ (International Court of Justice). Though the verdict was
against China, Beijing refused to accept and infamously compelled Philippines
to fall in line with its financial heft. By signing huge investment deals with
Cambodia and Laos Beijing suppressed any resistance to its military assertion
in the region. Alerted by China’s claims over 80% of SCS, Indonesia recently
named the Sea near Natuna islands as North Natuna Sea. By bailing out 1 MBD beleaguered
State investment fund, Beijing tamed Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak.
ASEAN nations are now wary of China’s territorial claims over the strategically
important SCS which accounts to trade flows worth $5trillion. Unfortunately,
ASEAN group which came into existence as a bulwark against China is now
devitalized since nations are unable to reach a consensus over maritime issues.
China’s unabated military assertion is triggering insecurities among the ASEAN
countries. India’s reluctance to buckle down under Chinese pressure during the
70- day long Doklam standoff has given enough reason for ASEAN nations to look
towards India as a geostrategic alternative in the region. Further, India’s
potential as a fast-growing economy, huge market potential and investment
opportunities have prompted ASEAN to deepen cooperation with New Delhi.
Ever since 1992, despite change in political leadership India
consistently maintained good relations with ASEAN. With economic cooperation
high on agenda in the second decade of partnership with ASEAN, both sides
signed free trade agreement in 2003. But
bilateral trade failed to reach full potential. On the other hand, ASEAN countries,
adept in manufacturing benefitted from bilateral trade. India began pitching
for agreement on services its forte. India-ASEAN Agreements on Trade in
Services and Investments came into force on July 1st, 2015. But as
of now gains have been modest. Indo-ASEAN bilateral trade currently stands at
$70 billion as against target of $200 billion by 2020. Indian trade deficit in
part is worsened by South Asian countries trade barriers on agriculture goods,
pharmaceuticals, and textiles. Contrastingly, China-ASEAN bilateral trade
amounts to whopping $450 billion. India accounts for 2.6% of ASEAN’s external
trade. Similarly, India’s investment in ASEAN pale in comparison with Japan and
China.
India has special relations with some ASEAN countries like
Vietnam. Similarly, New Delhi signed a pact for enhancing maritime security
cooperation with Singapore and stepped up defence cooperation with Philippines.
Now both sides are exploring all possibilities to strengthen economic
relations. ASEAN countries are batting for early conclusion of RCEP (Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership), a mega trade arrangement constitution
ASEAN countries, India, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. India is
reluctant since its doesn’t have robust connectivity with ASEAN countries and
fears China swamping colossal Indian markets. Unfortunately, crucial
connectivity projects like Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Corridor though the
troubled Rakhine province and the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway
have been inordinately delayed exacerbating connectivity issues. In a bid to
address connectivity constraints, under the Act East policy, India is
vigorously pursuing infrastructure development projects in the North East
region which is a land bridge to South East Asia.
While ASEAN countries are enthusiastic about India’s interest
in regional integration and connectivity, they want greater participation of
Indian navy in South East Asia. Though ASEAN welcomed references to India as
Indo-Pacific power they anticipate New Delhi to take stronger stand on China’s
burgeoning military aggression in the region. But India is reluctant to take a
proactive role in ASEAN since the group is largely undivided. A subgroup within
ASEAN tacitly approves China’s manipulation of Code of Conduct.
At a time, region is embroiled by geopolitical uncertainty,
India’s bold initiative towards restructuring regional architecture had found
congruence with aspirations of ASEAN countries. India held two-day Indo-ASEAN
summit on the eve of Republic Day held on 24-25th January themed on
“Maritime cooperation and Security”
with a focus on counterterrorism, security, and connectivity. In the two days,
Modi held bilateral talks with all heads of states which was followed by a
retreat at Rashtrapathi Bhavan. As a mark of solidarity and strengthening
common heritage, commemorative postal stamp on Ramayana was released. Bharat
ASEAN Maitri Park was inaugurated. Additionally, India conferred Padma Sri on
one individual from each of the ASEAN countries in recognition of their distinguished
services. Also, a tableau themed on India-ASEAN friendship marched along the
Republic Day contingent. Aside, high optical display and symbolism of
friendship and solidarity between India and ASEAN, Prime Minister Modi at the
plenary session of the summit laid out few guidelines to rejuvenate and cement
ties. Speaking at the ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit (AICS), Modi broached on
swift progression of Indo-ASEAN journey which began as sectoral dialogue and
matured into a strategic partnership in the past 25 years and commended the
progress of implementation of third action plan 2016-2020. As of now there are
30 sectoral dialogue mechanisms, seven ministerial level initiatives to deepen
the partnership. Modi affirmed, “India
shares ASEAN’s vision of peace and prosperity through the rules-based order for
the oceans and seas. Respect for international law, notably UNCLOS is critical
for this”. He promised, “we remain
committed to work with ASEAN to enhance practical cooperation and collaboration
in our shared maritime domain”. Reassuring that India-ASEAN relations are
built on 3Cs of- Commerce, Connectivity and Culture, Modi invoked the need for
revitalizing the rich ancient civilizational links. Simultaneously, India is
actively mobilizing BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral
Technical and Economic Cooperation) to step up ties with maritime neighbors
which includes ASEAN countries Myanmar and Thailand. India is thus adopting a
multi-pronged approach to nurture ties with extended neighborhood through
various platforms.
The collective presence of ASEAN leaders made the Republic
day celebrations more special. This new momentum generated by Modi’s pragmatic
diplomacy undoubtedly asserted India’s commitment towards regional integration.
With SAARC temporarily buried, India should deepen ties with South East Asia, a
region wary of China’s hegemony and military assertion. Vietnam can be India’s
pressure point against China. With China deftly encircling India, pulling all
its neighbors into its orbit, India must consider strategic maritime expansion
into the vast Indo-Pacific region. Since India can’t match the deep pockets of
China for making huge investments in the ASEAN countries it should widen
maritime security cooperation and partner with Japan to make forays into the
Indo-Pacific region. India’s steady rise has raised the expectations of ASEAN
countries. It is time India extends unflinching solidarity to ASEAN and
contribute toward promoting peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.
Also, India should generously employ ‘soft
power’ like promoting people to people links, nurturing ancient
civilizational connect by setting up tangible and intangible heritage circuits.
India’s trade ties with ASEAN countries are not uniform. New Delhi would stand
to gain if it can rope in fastest growing economies like- Malaysia, Indonesia,
Singapore, Vietnam and Philippines into Make in India initiative. A broad-based
approach of strengthening economic ties, connectivity networks and maritime
cooperation with ASEAN can make India a major player in building new order in
Asia.