Iceland: Safe haven of information

Internet has increased the appetite for information. The information age besides replenishing life with terra bytes of information at the click of the button is entrapped by the burgeoning burden of snooping and data privacy. Now world’s sophisticated technology firms are exploring for safe havens for data privacy and storage. The sub-zero climes of the Scandinavian countries are now preferred for surplus energy supply, excellent connectivity for data and constant cool climate. Companies have started operating data centres from the Arctic. The bone chilling temperatures of minus 40 centigrade temperatures are now in great demand for operating server farms. Cold temperatures drastically reduce the high costs associated to keep the servers cool. Indeed face book established its first server in sub-Arctic town of Lulea, Sweden. More firms are now hunting for such climes because of low electricity charges and high levels of renewable energy.

Internet related activities account for ever increasing share of the world’s energy usage. Face book was reprimanded by Green Peace for obtaining 53% of its energy from coal sources. With an intention to go green it established its server farm in Scandinavian country with surplus geo-thermal and hydro-electric power to cater for data storage. Google too runs its data centre from Hamina in Finland. While big firms were successful in finding an effective place for storing data, data protection laws of those jurisdictions must be congruous too. Security and accessibility of data has become issue of grave concern.  Against these fears, Iceland is gearing up to become Switzerland of the data by providing numerous data centres where individuals, corporate and even countries can store their valuable information backed with strong privacy laws.

Bank of America estimated that information and technology are already consuming 10% of the World’ produced electricity. Green Peace reports that energy usage for internet is expected to increase by 60% by 2020. While having servers at a distant location may not greatly hamper the speed of operations for services like Google and face book financial institutions will incur heavy losses if data meanders through a distant server since a delay by a fraction of second can topple stock markets.  Hence these locations may not be ideal for financial sector else Scandinavian region has become a lucrative for its business of data storage. Innovative companies are engineering efficient and less power intensive server technologies to reduce energy requirements for data storage.

Iceland, tiny Nordic nation is offering a distinctive advantage by setting stage for implementation of progressive data privacy laws. This has become vital issue ever since the Whistle blower Edward Snowden’s revelations regarding wide spread surveillance of the US. The International Modern Media Institute (IMMI) has played a key role in designing and promoting the legal framework for Iceland’s new privacy laws. A group of Icelandic activists began cherry picking best laws from across the countries to evolve the World’s strongest media and free speech protection laws as well as state-of-art privacy laws. The data centres can greatly benefit from a clause in the law that ensures protection of intermediaries like internet service provider and telecommunication carriers. Titled as the ultra-modern freedom of information act, the proposal provides protection to investigative journalists and whistle blowers was passed in the Icelandic parliament.

Business analysts believe that Iceland can become a perfect place for supercomputing and mining of virtual currencies like BitCoin given the availability of high processing capacity. Most of the towns in Iceland are promoting themselves as ideal locations for hosting cloud service industry from around the world. In future don't be surprised if nations are hamstrung by Iceland for data violation acts.

 

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Incidentally this is my 200th blog post and I wish to thank each and everyone of you for your continued interest and support.

 

Annihilating the last traces of Cold War: Restoration of the US-Cuban relationships

In a remarkable move President Obama made a surprise announcement of restoring full diplomatic relationship with the Cuban island frozen for more than five decades. In a bid to sweep away the last vestiges of the Cold war, the US announced opening of US Embassy at Havana. The thawing of the relationships resulted in prisoners swap and was consolidated by a telephonic conversation between President Obama and Raul Castro. Stalemate persisted with former Spanish colony 150 kilometres away from the shores of Florida due to oceans of mistrust and hostility.

Diplomatic relationships with Cuba were called off in 1961 as Fidel Castro forged alliance with Soviet Union in 1959 and loomed large over its neighbouring Northern giant nation. The US threatened by growing closeness between Castro and Nikita Khrushchev, launched an invasion with trained Cuban exiles at Bay of Pigs. The US trained brigade failed miserably but determined to establish a non-communist regime in Cuba, US launched Operation Mongoose-a plan to sabotage and destabilise the Cuban economy. In turn, Cuba turned into a strategic haven for the Soviet which deployed medium-range missiles, MIG fighter planes, submarines loaded with torpedoes and three battalions of combat army in Cuba by September 1962 and the crisis of cold war peaked when American U-2 spy plane was shot down over Cuba. Thus, US- Cuban relations were marred by these rancorous issues.

The announcement from White House was intended to forbid outdated approach and to normalise relations with Cuba. Obama after his re-election authorised secret negotiations with Cuba hosted by Canada and Vatican for the past 18 months at the behest of Pope Francis. The President by executive authority for now eased restrictions on remittances, travel and banking while Cuba would allow more internet access and release 53 Cubans identified as political prisoners by the US. Although the trade embargo will remain in place the telephonic conversation has opened up a channel for finding new solutions for many problems. The mutually belligerent policies have sealed off relationships between nations for 54 years. Cuba along with Iran and North Korea are the only countries with no formal relationships with the US. Now steps are initiated to remove Cuba for the list of states that sponsor terrorism.

Following the announcement by the White House two antagonistic views were making rounds. Initial domestic backlash by the Republicans have been the strongest contesting the offer of Obama and remarking him as appeaser-in-chief. But the public has supported the move of lifting embargo on Cuba. While the younger generation expressed desire for more openness and were optimistic older ones were keener on isolation.

The end of cold war stuck as a calamity for Cuba as it lost its biggest sponsor and subsequently its GDP contracted by 35 to 40%. A slew of reforms were accelerated a decade ago and Cuba liberalised portions of its economy whereby European countries quickly grabbed those opportunities. After Raul Castro assumed charge in 2008 there has been perceptible change in Cuban economy.  Till now the moribund economy has been sustained by the subsidies from Venezuela in form of cheap oil. But declining oil prices plunged Venezuelan economy into deep economic crisis. Moreover after collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia staring at economic instability it was timely move by the US to repeal its long-standing embargo on Cuba. Brazil and Latin American countries had threatened not to participate in Summit of Americas in Panama in April if Cuba was excluded. But lifting embargo might gain momentum post-2016 presidential elections, if Cuban-Americans in Florida State shift sentiment towards better engagement.

The US trade embargo with Cuba has been codified by a 1996 law- Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act or Helms-Burton Act signed by President Clinton. US administration has under this had charted out democracy promotion programs and funnelled around $40 million aid to dissidents on the island. For the past 50 years the US policy towards Cuba was to prevent Cuba from exporting its revolution to Latin America and Africa and to remove Castros from power. While it was successful in its first goal, the second remained elusive. US embargo had hurt the Cuban economy but it continued trade with other countries in Europe, Latin America and Asia.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, for the past 20 years the US openly tolerated and collaborated with leftist nations like Venezuela, Honduras , Bolivia and other Latin American nations. The US can no longer find any justification for isolating Cuba as a terror sponsor nation. Continued isolation by the Cuban-American lobby failed to spring counter democratic revolution in the island. During late 1990’s Clinton administration initiated constructive engagement by easing restrictions on humanitarian aid, broadening the ability to send remittances and resuming direct flights between nations.

Though the despotic regimes of the dictator brothers continue to loom large over the island, the economy continues its search for growth and is actively looking for investments from other countries. Security threats symptomatic of cold war from the island no longer exist, hence US shouldn’t let go this opportunity at a time when Cubans are trying to rejoin the regional and World economy. The geographical proximity of the nation may cost US dearly if it continues to push for a policy of diplomatic isolation.

 

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Climate changes might brew up an Arctic Conflict

Rapidly changing climate has brought numerous changes in the geophysical architecture of the World. While the Republic of Marshall Islands in West Pacific Islands is threatened by submersion, steadily depleting snow cover of the Arctic Circle opened a new Pandora box.  Arctic which was inaccessible a decade ago has become a relatively busy navigation route during summer months. The thick floes of snow and ice islands which cut off the enormous territory of 21 million square kilometres between North Pole and Arctic Circle was of strategic importance to navies of both the US and the Soviet during cold war since their submarines could conveniently hide under the thick ice shield. This huge area which remained pristine for eons and conflict-free is now poised to portend real conflict.

Arctic nations are not solely defined by latitude but comprise all the nations in the northern region whose median temperature is 50 F or less in the month of July. These include: Canada, Denmark (Greenland and Faroe Islands), Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden and the United States (Alaska). The region might turn into Zone of potential conflict if divisive competition for resources takes an upper hand over the awe inspiring beauty of this unexplored territory.  So, Arctic Council, a multinational organisation was setup by Canada in 1996 to deal with the environmental concerns of this region.

When it comes to navigation opening up of the Northern sea during the summers for the cargo ships immensely reduces the distance, shipping and fuel costs from Atlantic to Pacific and from Europe or east coast of the North America to East Asia besides cutting down the Carbon dioxide emissions. While there are huge benefits, the four million inhabitants of the Arctic Circle have to pay price for the development. Within the Arctic Council tension is brewing up due to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Seven out of eight nations are democracies and NATO members and the Russian federation which has largest stake in the region should work harmoniously to ensure critical development in the region instead of turning into a Zone of Conflict. In 1867, Russia sold Alaska to United States for five cents an acre as it believed that it was parting with just a lump of ice. Now the same country is laying claims on the vast swathes of sea bed that may yield riches.

As per the provisions of United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS), an area of 200 nautical miles from the continental shelf can be claimed by respective countries as their Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ). Countries which ratified under the UNCLOS before 13^th May 1999 have ten years to claim any extension of their continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles, so long as the extension was no more than 100 miles from the point at which sea reached 2.5 km and no more than 350 miles from land. All claims are to be substantiated with copious amount of scientific evidence to prove that sea bed in question is indeed continental shelf. If the claim passes the tests, countries can exploit the mineral wealth as long as they share the revenue with landlocked and poorer nations. Russia was the first nation to make such claim in 2001 and six years later it planted its titanium flag on a seabed 4km below the North Pole.

Under these provisions China and South Korea are at odd over parts of East China Sea. China has claimed large parts of East China Sea which include the Spartlys, an island claimed by Malaysia, The Philippines and Vietnam. Canada couldn’t ratify the treaty till 2003 and submitted its claim by 2013, Denmark had time till 2014 and US has no deadline since it didn’t ratify. Five major countries are eyeing on the rich treasure of the Arctic bed-The US, Demark, Canada, Norway and Russia. (Iceland has a very small claim in Arctic Circle). There is a stiff competition among these nations over North Pole. All these claims are submitted to the Commission on the Limits of Continental Shelf, the final authority which verifies the authenticity of the claim scientifically.

Recently Denmark staked claim to the North Pole indicating that 900,000 square kilometres of the Arctic Ocean North of Greenland belongs to it. It is based on the scientific evidence that Lomonosov Bridge that bisects the Arctic starts in Greenland. (Greenland is self-governing part of Denmark). But intellectuals are optimistic that competition over developing the resources would be gentlemanly as mining in such harsh conditions would be very expensive and falling oil prices would deter countries from exploring this region. But reasons for cooperation seem to be least likely with nations scoffing at Russia for its aggressive stance towards Crimea and meddling with Ukraine. Russia this summer has recently carried our extensive combat exercises post Cold war in the Arctic region. It re-equipped its old bases and recently test fired a new generation rocket Angara from its cosmodrome in the North.

Arctic temperature has been steadily increasing due to global warming and sea-ice has been shrinking at an alarmingly faster rate. Temperatures in Arctic region are raising twice the rate of rest of the earth. Recent projections indicate that by 2030 the region will have ice-free summers. The recent surge of interest in Arctic Circle is fall out of the climate change. The consequences of Arctic melt down extend far beyond the shipping routes. This region is estimated to harbour about 30% of untapped natural gas and 13% of global crude oil. It is also rich in minerals like Nickel, Copper, iron ore and rare earths used in electronic goods. If nations strive to retain this region as Zone of cooperation through diplomacy and coordination, all of them can accrue more benefits else it might potentially emerge as a new Zone of Conflict.

 

 

 

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Collapsing Oil Prices Spells doom for Russian Economy

Falling in oil prices has been a single largest cause of celebration for countries like India that are not self-reliant on energy front. Though the tumbling oil prices may not immediately translate into easing of inflation but it will definitely help government to recover from the spiralling burden of energy subsidies. (According to report, every $10 per barrel fall in oil price can boost India’s economy by 10 basis points and improve current account and fiscal balance by0.5 and 0.1% of GDP). Plummeting oil prices is a moment of great trepidation as it evoked mixed response wherein cries of woes have far outnumbered the shouts of joy.  Low oil prices have begun to spell doom for the oil based economies of the World which are going through phases of dramatic devaluation of their currencies. The effects are slowly spilling to other countries even European equities are too suffering biggest losses.

 With nearly 50% fall in prices with its peak three years ago, the effect is more pronounced on non–OPEC (Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries) countries like Russia and Venezuela. International  Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil prices might fall below $60 per barrel shortly. Increased efficiency of automobiles, weak economic growth and use of alternate sources of energy has reduced the demand for oil from non-OPEC countries especially the US  reduced the demand for oil resulting in lowering of oil prices. It was anticipated that low oil prices might spike demand. But the chilling prospect of drastic reduction in investments and infrastructure reduced oil trade.  While controlling supply could was another possibility with OPEC countries refusing to budge from their stance of production cuts hopes of oil price revival has dashed out. Consequently, the impending economic crisis is tipped to take a huge toll on Russian economy in particular.

Russia with its $450 billion reserves is finding it very difficult to rescue the sinking economy. Its economy is very vulnerable to any fluctuations in oil prices as nearly half of state’s revenues and quarter of GDP is accounted by energy sector returns. Rouble is quickly losing its value in the market and it fell by 17% in the last few days ringing alarm bells. The shrinking oil revenues together with economic sanction packages imposed by the West and European countries for meddling with Ukraine and annexing Crimea in March has destabilised the financial architecture of Russia. In a bid to offset the monetary collapse Russian central bank Rosneft increased the interest rates to a historic 17%  which will severely hamper future investments in the country.

While the lavish infrastructure for the Sochi winter Olympics in February 2014 and endemic corruption has reduced the solvency, the free fall of Rouble has aggravated the crisis. The government is trying to downplay the crisis by saying that Russia is going through a phase of adjusting to the realities of international trade. But its companies and banks scheduled to reimburse $120billion to International creditors by 2015 are hard hit. Rouble lost more than 50 % its value against dollar leading to sharp increase in the cost of imports. Further, many people took mortgages in dollars thus the cost of repayment has doubled for them in the past 10 months thereby Russian people are paying high penalty. Its oil giant Gazprom recently expressed inability to sustain business in the wake of slipping oil prices and announced a 25% reduction of work force with immediate effect. While the Russian economy is sinking its spill over effects might be felt by the West too. Germany could be hardest hit as it is biggest trading partner with Russia. More than 350,000 jobs are tied with trade between the countries. More than 6000  German companies  have registered offices in Russia with a combined turnover of $40 billion employing 270,000 people. No nation is an island. With the collapse of oil prices sinking  Russia economy would make huge financial dent on economies of its trade partners and business associates too.

Putin has been riding high on popularity charts with his nationalistic agenda following the annexation of Crimea. With food prices increasing by 12% and inflation set to touch 10% by 2015 financially burdened Russians might no longer find Putin’s regime enchanting. Earlier leaders like Boris Yeltsin and Gorbachev too were driven out of power due to economic recession. In a bid to restore the imperial glory of Russia, Putin played a dangerously high-handed game with the West. Now his fortunes are threatened by a political instability. As a last move Russian government played yet another nationalist card by announcing its plans of developing an independent space station. Undoubtedly, Russia with its untapped resources will continue to dominate international arena in long run. However financially aggrieved Russians are in dire need of a stable economy.

 

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Conversion row and unnecessary furore

The opposition has tightened its stance on the conversion row and stalled the business in Rajya Sabha. All the opposition parties joined hands and have been busy conducting campaigns against the same at various places in the capital city citing that conversions are going to send a wrong message abroad. But the dubious stance of wasting government’s valuable time, resources is indeed going to do more harm than the former.

Before jumping into the actual issue it would be fair to address few questions-is it the first time conversions of any sort happening in independent India? Why have been all the aggrieved political parties least moved when the population of certain religious groups are doubling at an alarmingly quicker pace? Why have been certain conversions left unheeded and why sky starts falling in India when reconversions are tipped towards majority community? Why is the issue blown out of proportions and suddenly occupying centre stage on every platform- be it debate on the Prime time of news channels or the regular social get-togethers. Everybody is gaga over the same topic.

Reconversion into minority religion has hardly received any media attention and it is largely under reported or unreported many a times. It is understandable that Indian politicians been into the business of minority appeasement for more obvious reasons. As per the unwritten dictum in India any person voicing concerns of the cultural identities of the majority community is brandished as communal. With the 42^nd Amendment of Constitution of India in 1976, the word secular has been included into the preamble and has become the basic tenet of Indian governance. The Western concept of Secularism envisages the separation of religion and state and Indian definition of secularism is equal treatment of all religions by the state. By this definition government should recognise all religions and acceptance of religious laws has become binding on the state.  It implies that state enforces religious laws over riding the parliamentary laws and respect pluralism. As a result, a single or uniform can’t be enforced on all its citizens in matters of marriage, divorce, alimony and inheritance. Muslims have sharia based Muslim Personal Law. The concept of secularism in India is thus largely controversial and divisive.

Since the constitution of India hasn’t laid laws to define the relationship between religion and state. The whole issue of religion was highly messed up with Indian government. In India special legal and financial benefits are proffered on all religions except on the majority. The list of the double-stands seems endless. To complicate the issue further most politicians ride a pro-minority band wagon not out of the concern about their welfare but for votes. If governments till now were silent about conversions into minorities why are they so vocal about the recent ghar wapasi program?

It is astonishing that while ghar wapasi program has been discussed so rapaciously the proselytising and forcible conversions enabled by the million dollar foreign missionary organisations hardly evoked any response. The prehensile mass conversions patronised by former chief minister of Andhra Pradesh is met with elegant silence and the national leaders of the party were never bragged either in the Parliament or by our vibrant media. But the conversion of 70 odd people in a backward district of Uttar Pradesh has disrupted the winter session of the Parliament preventing the passage of essential bills. While the media houses have been over enthusiastic to rake up and pull down the fringe majority activists the forcible conversion of majority into the minority in the North-East never caught media attention. The places of worship of the majority were ransacked in those regions and people were forcibly converted at gun point. While these alleged religious tales are reported by international media, Indian media has pledged silence. Governments till now had dubious approach towards the whole concept of religion in India but it is lamentable that the fourth estate, the invincible power that can steer and enlighten the nation is woefully biased.

Co-existence of religions has been the hallmark of India. A stable and a harmonious Indian society should march towards the path of progress and development. Hence instead of raking up religious issues and rocking the Parliament to force adjournment, politicians should put the concept of India first and allow it to function.

 

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An Ode to Ebola Fighters: TIME person of the year

Past week World was traumatised by tales of inhuman brutality and rampant fanaticism where 132 innocent lives were nipped as buds in Peshawar by the armed Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. Similar brutal mindset led to beheading of 150 women most of them pregnant as they refused jihadi marriages in the Iraqi province of Al Anbar. Against the background of the grotesque and gruesome display of barbarity, the indomitable courage, fearlessness and exemplary humanity would be a humbling experience to recall. Time person of the year “Ebola Fighters” truly deserve the honour, respect for the exemplary display of heroism and sacrifice. Armed with bleach and a prayer they have turned around the obnoxious scourge of Ebola into a conquerable malady. The altruistic group includes the special forces of Doctors Without Borders/Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), the Christian medical-relief workers of Samaritan’s Purse, local doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers, burial teams and volunteers from all over the World.

Ebola made its first appearance in December 2013 and catastrophic effect of Ebola collapsed the economy of three West African countries- Liberian Sierra Leone and Guinea. Previous attacks were reported in remote Central Africa. But this time, cities and bustling shanties came under attack due to the porous between the cities and country side. As infected people began queuing before the local hospitals, the doctors who weren’t akin to the symptoms, modes of transmission and treatment mistook it for the common malaise malaria. But as the symptoms aggravated into uncontrolled vomiting, torrential diarrhoea, organ bleeding and sometimes death local doctors were appalled.

Initially, Doctors of Eternal Love Winning Africa (ELWA) in Liberia, rose to the occasion converted a chapel into hospital to quarantine infected patients. They began treating patients by donning protective gear. With their meagre resources and funds the doctors trained staff and stock piled bleach. They anticipated that government would shrug off lethargy and set up Ebola treatment facility. But in fact, the governments of all the three nations virtually did nothing. For initial months the army of health workers, volunteers and doctors crusaded against Ebola.

The first reported case of Ebola was registered in rural Guinea in December 2013. Ebola has glaringly exposed the fustian African governments, smug western powers and defrauding bureaucrats. National and global health agencies waited for five months to acknowledge even the intensity of the disaster. Health Ministries ignored the warnings of the doctors. WHO turned away pre-emptive offer of help from Centre for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) which could have contained the galloping spread of Ebola and saved billions of dollars. By March, petrified by the extent of the viral penetration and spread, the MSF, a medical relief organisation in the World, which was honoured with Noble Prize in 1999 for its commitment to deliver quality care, raised alarm. Doctors from across the World began to trickle into Guinea. But the locals were very hostile to the foreigners and even stoned their vehicles. To stem the rampant suspicion among the locals, doctors summoned local priests, village leaders and translators to educate people about Ebola and to get the extent of spread of the disease.

By June the region was grappling under the ghastly spread of Ebola. Being poverty stricken, all these countries has poor health infrastructure and people lived in woefully unhygienic shanties. Since Ebola is transmitted through body fluids, all the web individuals who touched would be infected. Preventing the contagion was an insurmountable task as it involved treating not only the patient with visible symptoms but tracing all his people who touched them and keeping them in observation for 21 days. Dogged investigation was needed to locate the contacts. It was a chain reaction and people were soon overwhelmed by fear, shame and ignorance. As death rates began to mount, health workers were frightened by the lurking presence of Ebola. There was ever increasing demand for trained doctors, nurses, support staff, diagnostic laboratories and supplies. It was not until end of July did the West ring the panic button when an American contracted Ebola in Liberia. Soon US troops built treatment units at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile with no sign of local or international help frustration grew among MSF who lashed out at UN headquarters. In response UN dispatched an international team for Ebola mission, World Bank pledged funds and WHO declared emergency in August.

The health workers and volunteers had a gruelling routine. They worked for 12-14 hrs shifts, six days a week under the killing heat donning a non-absorbent suit, fogged up goggles, attending patients moaning in pain and all this demanded a tornado of energy. As deaths toll began to roll on ordinary citizens whose lives were devastated by the loss of their families and friends emerged as saviours. Having undergone the pain of losing a dear one with officials fleeing to safe havens men and women became Ebola fighters by converting schools into disaster-response centres, holding meetings, organising food distribution and setting ambulance services. The myriad heroic tales of extraordinary service and sacrifice sustained the fight against the dangerous disease.

Though the crisis is not over, incidence has come down. The clinics which initially used to turn down the patients dooming them to misery and death are now housing them in containment facilities. Even the vaccine trials are fast tracked and Ebola diagnostic techniques have become quicker and reliable. Survival rates too have improved. People who used to consult traditional healers are now walking into ETUs. The relentless and untiring efforts of volunteers, doctors and aid workers infused a new hope into governments who were ill prepared to meet quell the epidemic of Ebola.

The Ebola virus (Zaire strain) was first discovered in 1976 by Belgian microbiologist Dr. Peter Piot. The discovery remained unnoticed until the hyperbolic story of Robert Preston’s book The Hot Zone in 1995 shook American consciousness. The mysterious disease with dreadful symptoms had a reference to the Ebola virus. Coincidentally around the same time a defector from the Soviet Union’s bio weapons facility testified before the US congress about his government’s plans of using Ebola as a possible biological weapon. Shortly, US Army plummeted research on Ebola which resulted in development of a drug TKM- Ebola and a vaccine which were successfully tested against monkeys. Drug companies, for the lack of incentive failed to evince interest and mass production was never taken up. Over the years scientists unravelled the functions of seven glycoproteins of Ebola virus and sequenced the genome. Unfortunately it failed to yield any clue and the researcher who worked on it contacted infection and lost his life. Undeterred by failures during studies on Ebola, scientists took up the challenge and vowed to save lives.

Beyond all these considerations, TIME has bestowed the coveted honour on Ebola fighters as a gratitude towards those who willingly and eagerly took up the job no one wished to do. These fighters whole heartedly embraced death to save lives of strangers, who repaid them with hatred. It was ode to the unsung heroes who were exposed to unfathomable grief and in spite of giving best of efforts they felt it was never enough. Victory is still miles away. This won’t be the last epidemic. But the important lessons learnt were: to be better prepared, less fearful and less reactive. Hope the next time when any tragedy looms people would emulate the spirit of these fighters and surmount it.

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Why is Russia important to India?

President Putin’s visit lasting for little less than 24 hours to India to attend 15^th India- Russian Summit is timed, when the relations between the two countries have dovetailed. India and Russia historically had strong strategic, military, economic and diplomatic relationships. The foundations for such bilateral relationships was laid down by Jawaharlal during the regime of Khrushchev’s who unabashedly supported India’s sovereignty over Kashmir and other Portuguese colonies (in 1955) and India’s claim for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Ties between both the nations flourished over a period of time with Soviet Union’s peace brokering during the 1965 Indo-Pak war and supporting India’s efforts of secession of East Pakistan. Russia helped to bail out India post two nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998 and provided cryogenic engines and other weaponry when the World had shut off its doors.  After the collapse of Soviet Union India maintained close relationships with Russia which culminated in signing of a strategic partnership in 2000 for increased cooperation in politics, defence, civil nuclear energy, anti-terrorism cooperation and space. Both countries are ambitious to foster relationship across the sixth dimension of economics by setting a target of $20 billion trade between two countries by 2015. This goal seems to be unrealistic as the existing trade accounts to $10 billion. Besides, Japan, Russia has the mechanism for Annual ministerial level defence reviews with India.

Prime Minister Modi after assuming power savoured in high level diplomatic engagements with immediate neighbours, Japan, China, Australia and the US. These effusive interactions overshadowed our ties with Russia and created an impression that these have suffered neglect. Although Modi’s personal invite to President Obama to grace the Republic Day as Chief Guest signalled India’s intentions to diversify its ties with the West, the high levels of trust between the India and Russia is believed to withstand the new change in India’s foreign policy. Modi interacted with the Putin during the BRICS summit and met him at G-20 summit. Putin’s is on his sixth visit to India and first such after the new government took the charge.

Currently Russia has come under severe censure from the US and Europe over his support to uprisings in east Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. Russian companies’ access to American and European Financial and technology market is slowly choked. Sanction-hit Russia is economically crippled and the collapse of global oil prices has accentuated the crisis. The combined result has been Russia’s dwindling foreign earnings and a rush to convert tumbling Rouble into internationally high priced currencies. Russia’s economic prognosis is grim and heading towards inflation and economic slowdown. Though Russian central banks tried to plug in a slew of measures to contain free fall of Rouble, they were forced to retreat.

Debilitating financial crisis might spell doom for domestic political scenario too. Against this back ground strengthening energy, defence and strategic ties with India and other Asian countries will be foremost on the agenda for Putin. Energy diplomacy can replace the waning defence business and nurture ties between the countries. India needs energy and Russia has the second largest reserves of natural gas. It is believed that $40 billion long-distance oil and gas pipeline from India to Russia can turn trade prospects to touch over $100 billion. But it was termed economically unviable but transportation of LNG would continue. Russia is the only country which doesn’t have any issues with the liability of India’s civil nuclear deal. Hence, nuclear energy cooperation can stand as Pillar of India-Russia Strategic partnership which can boost construction of nuclear power plants. India and Russia are contemplating on signing a free trade agreement with Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus to join energy exploration in Russian fields. India’s defence ties with Russia had taken a rough ride owing to the cost overruns and delays in bilateral defence deals. Rightly so, India has now diversified its defence imports stretching from the US and Israel. But it can seal an agreement with Russia to develop the fifth generation fighter aircrafts. Incongruence with Make in India theme, another lucrative deal can be deepening engagement with India on diamond trade. Incidentally Modi and Putin would kick off the World Diamond conference on Thursday and can strike deal on the diamond business. India is largest manufacturing hub for cut and polished diamonds and Russia is the largest diamond producing country in terms of volume. Mined diamonds from Russia used to reach India via Belgium and Dubai by forging trade agreements transaction costs can be reduced.

The bilateral ties recently took a down turn with India expressing its concern over Russia’s defence deals with Pakistan and sale of new batch of helicopters while Russia is miffed over India’s purchase of Rafale fighters and American Apache attack helicopters. Incidentally Russia is leaning heavily towards China and both the countries have signed a contract worth $400 billion whereby Russia would supply Oil to China for over a period of 30 years last year. Even the defence deals between them are set to deepen. Our trade with Russia accounts to a fifteenth of its trade with China. It is highly incumbent on India to strengthen economic relationships. As a Eurasian power Russia is poignantly placed to control the maritime geopolitics of Asia. More so India must work with its traditional ally to rejuvenate its ties as it is being forcibly pushed into Chinese arms due to Western sanctions.

 

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Taiwan Elections crashed Dragon’s Scheme of Greater China

The upsurge foreign policy of Xi Jinping has fallen short of real politic with pro-China lobby suffering the worst defeat in the local elections of Taiwan. Ever since the successful organisation of the APEC summit, flagrant attention at the G-20, bilateral visit to Fiji and sealing of the historical climate change pact with the US, China has been upbeat. It was trying to consolidate its position as a major power house in the World both in the terms of financial strength and muscle power.

The ruling party of Taiwan, Kuomintang (KMT) was drubbed in the local elections by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). With presidential elections due for 2016, China is majorly worried about the prospects of the opposition clinching power. Current President Ma Ying-jeou, a pioneer of the “Sunshine policy” vociferously advocated that Taiwan can scale peaks of economic prosperity by intertwining with the main land China. But his contentious advocacy suffered a major glitch by the protests of the “Sun Flower Student Movement” who vehemently opposed all the attempts engineered by the KMT to merge Taiwan with the mainland economy. Ma, had been propounding that the enormous gains of the Chinese economy might trickle down to Taiwan if it merges with the economic giant.

KMT’s rout in local election is partially due to the poor handling of economic affairs by Ma. Taiwanese were desperate and wanted viable solutions. Middle class are agonised by shrinking salaries and sky rocketing of housing prices. In sharp contrast the compradors and Taiwanese business elite, who were wooed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), hugely gained from their close business associations with China. Surfacing of several food scandals has been the reason for major discontent. Ma assumed office in 2008 was friendly with China and seriously contemplated the plans of setting up representative offices in each other’s territories to facilitate greater liberalisation across the Taiwanese straits.  But investigative journalists have unearthed the shadowy work of the “United Front Work Department” which has been grooming the Taiwan businessmen to create the environment for reunification of Taiwan with China. Even the intelligence wing of CCP is placating academicians, authors, war veterans, students of Taiwan in a bid to soften their opposition towards the CCP and mobilise the re absorption of Taiwan into China. Despite the untiring ground work of China, people in Taiwan are stiffened by the fact that their dreams of a just society and democratic process will be stifled by the authoritarian regime of the China. Further as China is making desperate attempts to increase its clout in Asia, nations are becoming warier of its undemocratic shadow.

Moreover the pro-democratic protests of the Umbrella revolution in Hong Kong and the failed Chinese promise of “One Country two systems” had made people of Taiwan more suspicious of Dragon’s motives. China’s fervent denial of democracy to Hong Kong and its tightening grip over the autonomous special administrative region exposed the dubious intentions of China. Currently, mainland China is stymied by growing economic disparities and disenchantments with vast accumulation of wealth by the vested interests.  With fading economic equality and authoritarian polity in store, voters of Taiwan are unwilling to stake their freedom. The restive regions of Tibet and Xinjiang provinces are illustrative of the undemocratic highhandedness of China.

Even as three month old protests in Hong Kong show no signs of resignation, Beijing has to seriously contemplate its intransigence to pro-democracy as eventually pro-democracy calls can reignite such protests back home. Xi has continued to push the policy of one country, two systems towards Taiwan despite the strong opposition from island’s 23 million people. Similar negotiations with Hong Kong after its return in 1997 had resulted in some autonomy with separate economic and judicial system but Beijing imposed its ultimate authority. Xi’s unwavering stand towards Hong Kong and his insistence of vetting of candidates and approving their candidature before inaugural elections, 2017 in Hong Kong speaks volumes of the double standards of China.

While Xi is relentlessly working to portray China as a strong and confident nation, intent on integration with international community, with no compromise on its territorial claims he is having harder time convincing people of Hong Kong and Taiwan who are threatened of China’s rise. Taiwan, a former Japanese colony split from China during the civil war of 1949 was considered as renegade province. China signed 21 trade transit and investment agreements with Taiwan since 2008 but protestors in March occupied Taipei to stop the ratification of trade liberalisation treaty with China. The business men and elite in both the countries are favouring closer ties with China for greater economic gains. But the young people are more threatened by the main land. There are fears that civil rights, free press and independent political organisations will be eroded.

Though Chinese media plunged into action to perform damage control by attributing the election thrashing of the KMT to its inability to connect with aspiration of young Taiwan people, victory for the DDP signalled the spiralling effect of anti-mainland protests. As the slogans of “today Hong Kong tomorrow Taiwan” resonated with Taiwan voters, China’s desideratum of triumphantly walking down the Taiwan straits is watered.

 

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India’s Predicament on Climate Change

With the US and China sealing agreement on the carbon emissions recently, spot light turns to India as EU had pledged to cut down its emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.  Though India has still a year to make such a commitment to UN, Prime Minister Modi’s keen interest in conservation of nature and his passionate e-book in 2011: A convenient Action: Gujarat’s response to challenges of climate changes has raised hopes internationally about India’s committal towards climate change. India is the third largest emitter of green house gases after the US and China. The onus is high on India but the situation is quite daunting. India with second largest population in the World and nearly 25% of people lacking the access to power supply its reliability on coal had become inevitable leading to an inadvertent increase in global emissions. Fortunately, it is on the path of meeting the pledge made at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen 2009 of reducing the amount of carbon released for the same amount economic output 20 to 25 % over 2005 levels by 2020.

The fact remains that India is not China. China has almost reached the peak of its economic growth while India has embarked on the growth trajectory. While the percentage of population thriving on $1.25 a day (an International standard to measure poverty) in China is 6% it is 25% in India. Though coal consumption has surged last year in India, its per capita carbon emissions are miniscule 1.9 tonnes per person as against 7.2 for China and 16.4 in the US. China has promised to peak out its emissions by 2030 at the rate of 12 tons of carbon emission per person per year. But it hasn’t clearly indicated how it is going to attain the target. According to climate experts, if India intends to follow similar analogy, India doesn’t have to do anything.

India made a commitment at the UN of Development without destruction accentuating its strong commitment to increase its wind energy and solar energy capacity by 5 times over the next five and increase the efficiency of its automobiles, appliances and buildings.  India partnered with the US in 2009 for developing clean energy technologies. A new programme to scale up the renewable energy integration to power grids received a major fillip during Modi’s recent visit to the US.

But another cause of concern for environmentalists is the government’s policy to rev up power generation by boosting the domestic coal production. Coal is India’s primary source of energy accounting to 59%. To fuel India’s growth engine new government intends to ramp up coal production and Coal India has been asked to double its output to 1 billion tonnes by 2019. Also India intends to drastically cut down on the import of coal from Indonesia, South Africa, and Australia accruing major financial gains to the country. But the quality of domestic coal is poor with high ash content polluting two times more than the imported coal.  Hence India is pushing for renewable sources like solar technology, nuclear energy and wind energy. Though India has vast potential for Solar and wind technologies they are still in infancy.

Lima climate talks, scheduled for Dec 1^st will lay ground work for climate treaty to be ratified at Paris in Dec 2015 and will be implemented from 2020. The talks spanning 15 days will run on three parallel tracks with negotiations occurring over dozens of meetings followed by numerous close-door confabulations. While the 1995 Kyoto Protocol bound only developed countries which account for 40% of emissions, but the current round of commitments at Lima, scheduled to be submitted at United Nations Frame Work on Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by March would include all the major covering up to 80% of global emissions.

The talks will witness rigorous tussle between the developed and developing countries majorly over the promised financial commitment and pledging for enhanced reduction of carbon emissions. Besides there will be three major tracks- a pre-2020 track, what to commit track and Elements of Paris Protocol 2015. The Pre-2020 track focuses on the unfinished tasks of the developed countries both in terms of reduction of carbon emissions and mobilisation of financial fund of $100 billion per year and technological support pledged for the poor and developing countries. The less the developed countries accomplish before 2020, more will be the amount of burden shifted to the developing countries in the post-2020 era. These talks are the last chance for the developing countries to push the rich countries for more action; else the burden will be off loaded and distributed equally to all nations in the 2015 agreement. Under what to commit nations would have to contribute for climate change by making intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Rich countries are keen that it should be limited to reduction of carbon emissions (mitigation). They are interested primarily in mitigation one of the pillars of UN talks belying other aspects-adaptation, finance and technology. Third and the most important track is designing the elements of 2015 agreement  which should set a level playing ground for all nations. During the Lima talks, India’s emphasis would be on Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) and operationalising the Green Climate Fund.

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