(Population) Size Matters....

On one hand while statisticians and economists are exceedingly apprehensive about burgeoning population and the slew of repercussions on the global environment and food security, well developed nations are stung by the fear of lower birth rates. Demography or in common parlance a discussion on size of population is very interesting. While half the countries of the globe are mired by population excesses, the other half is busy designing policies to increase the same. Alas!!!! The world revolves around the paradox of extremities of population.

Japan the third biggest economy in the World has the fourth lowest fertility rate of 1.39 among the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Japan’s population is shrinking at an alarming rate. Currently, the population of Japan is 127 million and for the third consecutive year the country registered lowest birth rates. The population of over the age of 65 is incredibly high, constituting nearly one fourth of the total. It is hard to believe but the sales of adult diapers out beats sale of baby diapers in this land of rising Sun.

Japan is reeling under debt, which is twice the national economic output. Much of it due to increased social security and health costs associated with aging population.  As a move to fill state coffers, sales tax has been hiked to 8% from existing 5% and more women are encouraged to enter work force to bolster economy and immigration restrictions have been slackened too. The working population, people between ages of 15 to 65 has suddenly plummeted to less than 80 million for the first time in 32 years. The population of children under 14 stands at 12.9% is slightly more than people over 75 year age accounting to 12.3%.  Government is so alarmed by the looming crisis that it has set up a ministerial post to raise fertility. United Nations estimated that without improving its fertility rate, Japan has to attract 6,50,000 migrants every year. The problems compounding the shrinking population are numerous as Japan is experiencing severe labour shortages. The working population has to struggle to support the growing proportion of the aged population. To mitigate the shortages, industries are already investing in building more robots to work on factory floors and in care homes for elderly. A panel report suggests that fertility rate on an average of a woman should increase to 2.07 to have a stable population level.

Japanese have the highest longevity rate and lowest fertility rate. Since 1990 wages have stagnated and housing prices have shot up. Consequently most people have opted to stay single. Most of the women in Japan are well educated but they assume traditional roles post marriage and forgo their career after child birth. Child care is very scarce and expensive in Japan hence forcing them to make the sacrifice for bearing a child.  Further, the brutal, highly aggressive corporate work culture in Japan demand more than 50 work hours per week. Thus, it is difficult for a working woman to devote time for child rearing. Thus most the young men and women prefer being childless.

The latest Gender Gap Report compiled by Davos-based World Economic Forum ranked Japan 105 (India ranked 101) among 136 countries down by 25 places from 2006. It tracks the country’s gender gap and the national competitiveness. Since women account for one-half of the country’s potential talent base, national competitiveness depends on how significantly it educates and utilises its women.

With plummeting population and fewer than 2% of immigrants Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe is left with an option of relaxing immigration controls. The proportion of immigrants is much less for a rich country. The most recent visitors to Japan include Chinese students who largely run the convenience stores. Earlier in 1990, faced with severe labour crisis, Japanese Car manufacturers have opened doors to thousands of Brazilians of Japanese origins for low wage jobs. Following the economic slowdown in 2008, most of them forced to leave and were paid to return back to their homes.  Consequently the population of Brazilians fell from 20,000 to mere 9,000 and even those who stayed back failed to integrate. Government failed to make provisions for education and other needs of children of the immigrants.

Government is now mooting on plan of accepting the applications of 2,00,000 new  permanent residents from 2015.  There are carefully treading on the plans of allowing such a huge scale of immigration. They even and retraced its stance by gingerly rephrasing the terms of immigration. As of now, the government has decided to give longer temporary Visas to foreigners working in construction business with a precondition that they have to return back after wards. The immigrants mostly include people of South Korean and Chinese origin who have been living in the country for generations. If similar declining trend persists, the population of Japan would be curtailed to 87 million by 2060. A dramatic extrapolation of the data suggests that by 2100, population would become half or one third the present number. In spite of declining numbers, the right-wing group of Japan out rightly rejects the proposal of plausible immigration option, leaving several people dismayed. Hence Abe plans to bridge the acute shortage of the low wage jobs like construction workers and nannies by hiring cheap labour. Japanese are highly xenophobic, highly conscious about their culture and identity and their society is largely homogenous. Even Japanese cities are not geared up for multiculturalism. Immigration seems to be a farfetched option as immigrants are still a big no in this land.

South Korea, a former colony and neighbouring country of Japan is also facing similar situation of declining working population and a growing aged population, also adopts a similar immigration policy.

It is observed that fertility trends are on a fall and the current global fertility is down to 2.5. In Africa where large families are a norm, the fertility is down to 4.7 from 5.7 in 1990-95. Ideally the fertility rate should match the replacement rate hence a fertility rate of 2.1 is recommended. In most of the rich countries it is less than 2. In India, it is 2.51, China 1.5, Europe 1.6, Japan 1.4 and South Korea is 1.3. Even in the South East Asian countries the numbers are slipping below the replacement rate. Worried about the gruesome affairs some developed nations began supporting the policies that raise fertility. These include tax incentives and child benefits for better child care provision and making it easier for women to have children and to work. Fewer children mean fewer workers and as the longevity has increased in developed countries, government is burdened with the task of supporting growing number of pensioners.

Another study conducted by Vienna University of Economics & Business and International Institute for Applied Systems in Austria contests these preposterous worries of the governments as it believes that level of education has a crucial role to play. Educating more people to a higher level would pay off better in long term. Better-educated people are more productive, healthier, retire later and live longer. Thus they contribute more to economy throughout their lives. They recommend that ideal fertility rate in this scenario would be 1.5-1.8. Moreover, fewer the people lesser the carbon-imprint and better future environment. May be really crux lies in educating people rather than supporting baby bonuses.

A debate on demography can continue forever as more the population, greater the size of the armies and it matter more to countries which are under threat. Among the developed countries, Israel is the only country with fertility rate of 2.9, well above the replacement rate.

 

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Journey of China: Post Tiananmen Square Massacre

 

China, the dragon country and the fiercest Asian giant which recorded enviable growth rates till last year would credit its growth trajectory to the historical uproar of the Tiananmen Square massacre.  June 4^th marks the 25^th year of the event. But the present generation Chinese who were born post 1989 are unaware of the origins of the 4^th  Chinese revolution, as history reckons and the drastic change it could trigger in the dragon land. Government has prohibited discussions, other memoirs and remembrance events of the 1989 movement. Due to lack of information and mention of the event in any of the historical texts newer generation are oblivious to modern revolutionary movement of their own land.  Till date there is no clarity about the extent of carnage and the death toll. The Chinese government views it as a counter revolutionary riot and has severely condemned it.  In May 1989 University student led the movement and held the Tiananmen Square under siege for seven weeks. This was followed by massive hunger strikes that galvanised people around the country and huge demonstrations were carried out in 400 cities.  

The protests were triggered by death of Communist Party general secretary Hu Yaobang in April 1989 who voiced his concerns about the prevailing high inflation, limited career prospects and corruption. He aspired for greater political and economic reforms. Inspired by his clarion call for the country, University students, gathered at the Tiananmen Square to mourn his death. They intensified the stance on reforms and their demands included government accountability, freedom of press and freedom of speech, democracy and restoration of labour’s control over industry. Soon the protests gained momentum and around million people assembled at the Square. President Deng Xiaoping realising the gravity of the situation resolved to crush the protests with iron hand. He imposed martial law and soon 3 lakh military troops were mobilised into action to crackdown the movement on June 3-4th. This was followed by wide spread arrests of students and protestors, expulsion of foreign journalists. Chinese government controlled the coverage of local media and brought the situation under control. Even the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) marched onto Beijing roads with huge tanks to dispel the protestors. International community largely condemned the use of force against protestors and several countries imposed various economic sanctions on embargoes. It is only in 1992 that political initiation began on reforms.

This massive revolutionary movement eventuated in economic liberalisation, relaxation of controls on media immediately. With opening up of economy western countries soon flocked to the new market and turned a blind to the subtler forms of government censoring and social policing which exists in the country till today. Chinese still have limited internet access to market related information or stocks or other sensitive issues. As Chinese markets began attracting massive FDI’s market flourished as a result other issues of governance received lesser attention. People are now having better life styles. As a final ode to its growth story, China successfully hosted the summer Olympics of 2008 in Beijing. The extravagance of the event and the superb infrastructure and engineering brilliance of the stadiums has left people spell bound. This mega sports event boasted of phenomenal economic prosperity of the country, thus exemplifying the rapid progress it has accomplished.

China, the Asian Giant is now the second largest economy after the U.S. Owing to its stunning performance over the period of two decades it has evolved as a triumphant country. Its unparalleled mastery in infrastructure development and its potential as a manufacturing hub has catapulted the nation as the most prospective trade partner by the African countries. Augured by its economic supremacy, China is now exuding hues of belligerence towards other countries in its vicinity threatening the security of this region.

But ever since its economy began experiencing growth pangs from the past two years, when growth rate slumped to 7.5% as against consistent rate of 10% over past two decades new set of problems popped in. Economic deceleration hit job creation and young university graduates are unable to find a job. Income gap is widening at an alarming rate.  With the result social equality and the iron bowl (pensions and other government benefits) provided by state can no longer be availed. The balloon of the real estate, which accounts to 16% of GDP is at the verge of bursting. Any major economic collapse of the system is going to hard hit the Chinese youth accustomed to better life style. Protests are already brewing up in the form of self-immolations by the Tibetans and frequent attacks by Muslim Uighurs in the north-west provinces. The revolutionary spasms that propelled the 1989 are relevant even today. The issues of corruption, disclosure of assets by the leaders, democracy, transparency, accountability are still unresolved. Though government has clamped censorship on internet, people are uniting on various issues not for over throwing the government but for improvement of the present situation and to rise above accumulation of wealth. Now the wealthier class are slowly decamping for foreign lands for a better quality of living. Since inadvertent growth has severely polluted air, soil and water and people are stressed out by higher levels of competition that exist in every tier. Even though younger generation are still allured by huge purses they are not apolitical, but wielding more power to shape their futures.

Post Tiananmen Square massacre, China revelled in economic glory and government pretends that nothing has happened 25 years back. China has almost hit the pinnacle of success but the issues which propelled the public anger of spring 1989 are still unanswered. It has kept its ideological integrity in tact and took over the world and proved its mettle. China, a Communist country to core set a new trend and scripted history.

 

 

 

 

 

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